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Saithan

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China’s Surprise Submarine Move Shows Its Growing Power​

Chinese Submarine Sales
Myanmar is the latest country to acquire a submarine capability from China.

China’s Surprise Submarine Move Shows Its Growing Power​

Submarine sales are a powerful weapon in the game of international power and influence. China is increasingly combining it with the Belt and Road Initiative in ways which shape the geopolitical landscape. The latest surprise submarine supply illustrates this.​

H I Sutton 29 Dec 2021
When a Chinese submarine entered the Malacca Strait on December 20, heading towards the Indian Ocean, there was speculation about where it was going. This was answered when it pulled into the Yangon River, Myanmar, on December 23. Literally the next day it was commissioned into the Myanmar Navy as UMS Minye Kyaw Htin.

The sale, or transfer, had not been announced in advance. It highlights the growing influence of China in the region and the role submarine sales play in the geopolitical arena.

And China’s impact on the world submarine market. China is now supplying 4 countries with submarines. More may follow.

Submarine Diplomacy​

Buying submarines is not like cars, where you select a model, and pick from a catalogue of features. They are not bought off the shelf, instead each aspect has to be defined. The location where they are to be built, the degree of customization, crew training, and ongoing maintenance are all part of a typical deal. And there is always a geopolitical aspect, and often government-to-government negotiations.

And it is not simply commercial. Governments can supply submarines to help create, or reinforce, alliances. Or at least expect favorable future relations going forward. This is especially true if the submarines are provided free, or at a major discount. One way to do this is by supplying older submarines from their own inventory. It can be a win-win and limits the risk if politics change in the future.

The Chinese submarine for Myanmar is more complex than most in a few ways. Although China has been Myanmar’s main defense supplier for many years, it had not been in the frame for submarines. Instead, India and Russia had. Externally, it might be seen as a stab in the back to Indian efforts.

Myanmar has been trying to establish a submarine capability for about two decades. Exactly a year earlier on December 24 2020 the Myanmar Navy commissioned its first submarine, the UMS Min Ye Theinkhathu. Significantly, that submarine had been transferred by India, China’s immediate rival in the Indian Ocean region.

Both submarines are relatively old types, and both are second-hand. The Chinese one is a Type-035 Ming Class, and the Indian one is a Russian-built KILO class boat. Despite arriving second, the Chinese boat is hardly an upgrade over the Indian supplied one. In fact, the KILO is generally considered the more capable platform, although the exact details of their equipment fit are naturally harder to pin down.

So the sudden acquisition of an older Chinese boat is not about modernizing Myanmar’s capabilities. It is instead part of a bigger picture. China is presumably expecting to bag the follow-on order or more modern boats. And solidify its geopolitical position in the Bay of Bengal in the process.


China has done something very similar in the past. In 2017 it supplied two ex-PLAN (Chinese Navy) Type-035 Ming Class submarines to Bangladesh.

Market Warfare​

For the past few decades, the submarine export market has been dominated by France and Germany. These big players are already being challenged. These include new entrants South Korea, Spain and Japan, and reemerging established players like Sweden. And of course Russia has a stake in submarine exports. Now China is joining the club and rapidly rising towards the top.

China is already supplying four nations with a total of 12 submarines. The largest, and likely most sophisticated, deal is for Pakistan. The Pakistan Navy is getting eight Type-039B Yuan Class submarines, with four being built locally. These missile-capable submarines come with AIP (Air Independent Power).

Thailand is getting another Yuan, designated S26T. Meanwhile ex-PLAN Type-035 Min Class boats, which are less capable than the Yuans, have been supplied to Bangladesh (2) and now Myanmar (1). China is known to be courting other countries with submarines, notably Nigeria.

UMS Minye Kyaw Htin


Commissioning ceremony of Type 035B submarine UMS Minye Kyaw Htin

Like Russia, China is willing to supply submarines to countries which western governments may not. But unlike Russia its new-build submarines come with AIP. Thrown together with the classic Belt-and-Road incentives this may make them particularly appealing to internationally isolated governments.

Western leaning submarine builders will also be watching Chinese developments. On the one hand, there are many prospective customers who would not consider Chinese submarines. But equally, the markets undoubtedly overlap with many countries being open to both China and the West. Chinese submarine designs will increasingly be competing directly against Western types.

Belt And Submarine​

The game will not only be about money, but strategic influence and position. For China there is the added dimension of the Belt and Road Initiative. This is a Chinese government strategy to invest in key infrastructure developments around the world. Countries brought into this in a big way include Myanmar.

While the Belt and Road projects are infrastructure, many will see a very blurred line between them and the submarine sales. Said another way, the submarines are part of an influence game and strategic positioning. They can be leveraged in a similar way to port or shipyard projects.

In the case of Myanmar, it will be interesting to see the sales conditions. Not just the price, which is surely cheap or free, but the future restrictions it places on Myanmar.

 

Blackbeardsgoldfish

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China to postpone launch of Type 003 aircraft carrier​

23.04.2022
Promod Tandan
GettyImages-630597388-compressor.jpg

China postpones the launch of its new Type 003 aircraft carrier – Photo: AFP

China has postponed the launch of its Type 003 aircraft carrier originally scheduled for today.

The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) delayed the planned launch due to logistical problems as a result of a surge in COVID-19 cases, which triggered an extended lockdown in Shanghai.

It’s unclear for how long the release will be delayed, but upon launch the Type 003 will be China’s third aircraft carrier and the first capable of launching aircraft through a hydraulic catapult and recovering the aircraft with sophisticated arrestor wiring.

China intends to produce four carriers by the end of 2022 as part of its ambition to be the most powerful and advanced blue-water navy by 2030.

China’s effort to upscale its military hardware indicates its urge to take control over the South China Sea and, eventually, Taiwan.

China views the presence of external powers like the US as an intervention in its competing regional maritime claims.

Given the severe Shanghai outbreak, expect the delayed carrier construction to finish by summer.

Amid the US Navy’s Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOP) in the South China Sea, the carrier’s construction will directly feed China’s blue water aspirations of exercising sea control at long range. Consequently, this will increase the threat of confrontations in the South China Sea and beyond.

https://foreignbrief.com/daily-news/china-to-postpone-the-launch-of-type-003-aircraft-carrier/
 

Jagdflieger

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China to postpone launch of Type 003 aircraft carrier​

23.04.2022
Promod Tandan
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China’s effort to upscale its military hardware indicates its urge to take control over the South China Sea and, eventually, Taiwan.
China certainly up-scale's it's military inventory to counter US intentions and hegemony in it's vicinity, or what it defines as it's sphere of assuring the security of China and it's people, and has nothing to do with taking over Taiwan.
If they wanted to, they could have done it yesterday.
Talking about independence is one thing - going into a war for it is a totally different matter. And both the people living on Taiwan and Mainland China know this.

It's just certain politicians - on Taiwan and those outside politicians promoting that idea who's intention is simply to create and increase needless antipathy towards China and it's population.
 
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Blackbeardsgoldfish

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China certainly up-scale's it's military inventory to counter US intentions and hegemony in it's vicinity, or what it defines as it's sphere of assuring the security of China and it's people, and has nothing to do with taking over Taiwan.
And that sphere extends from where to where? You honestly believe that the CCP, especially under Xi, doesn't wish to reintegrate the "renegade province" by military means once it's possible to do so?
If they wanted to, they could have done it yesterday.
What Russia thought about Ukraine too, it's rather ridiculous to assume that an operation like this is easy.
Talking about independence is one thing - going into a war for it is a totally different matter. And both the people living on Taiwan and Mainland China know this.

It's just certain politicians - on Taiwan and those outside politicians promoting that idea who's intention is simply to create and increase needless antipathy towards China and it's population.
Just to understand your position here, you think that the belligerent rhetoric is solely coming from the west and Taiwan? It's not that I don't get your point about the negative reporting on China that the western media constantly does(and should be rightfully criticized for), but I'm not sure if you've followed chinese press releases over the years?
 

Jagdflieger

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And that sphere extends from where to where? You honestly believe that the CCP, especially under Xi, doesn't wish to reintegrate the "renegade province" by military means once it's possible to do so?
No I don't. - Xi's enemy isn't the population of Taiwan - but simply certain politicians and those outside politicians that try to provoke an independence move.
What Russia thought about Ukraine too, it's rather ridiculous to assume that an operation like this is easy.
China's military is way more advanced and capable then that of poor ($), conscript depended and low army moral plagued Russia - it wouldn't be that easy, but China could do it any time.
Just to understand your position here, you think that the belligerent rhetoric is solely coming from the west and Taiwan? It's not that I don't get your point about the negative reporting on China that the western media constantly does(and should be rightfully criticized for), but I'm not sure if you've followed chinese press releases over the years?
The "inciting" rhetoric is coming from outside - unfortunately IMO, Xi wasn't well advised to bring in the added sentence (reunification if necessary with military means) - but obviously he found it to be a clear massage add-on, to those wanting to play with fire.

The Taiwan issue is (as you know) a hell of a complicated issue - and if outsiders keep involving and inciting, the chances of a military conflict gets higher and higher.

China and it's regarded province of Taiwan - have more or less coexisted very peacefull and economically very successfully in the past 40 years. I don't have a Cristal ball but I do see a high chance for China becoming more liberal in the next 25 years and as such becoming far more attractive for the people on Taiwan to actually see the benefit of really sharing one government. - as such truly becoming one country.
And it is this probability, that makes the USA worry day and night - as such they are and will do everything to disturb and disrupt this process.
The more the USA and it's buddies instigate, the less liberal China will get - again a clear policy instigated and conducted by the USA.
 
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Blackbeardsgoldfish

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No I don't. - Xi's enemy isn't the population of Taiwan - but simply certain politicians and those outside politicians that try to provoke an independence move.
Xi would be a moron if he considers the average taiwanese to be an enemy, but taiwanense or western politicians "provoking an independence move" of Taiwan is a questionable statement. Taiwan is not recognised as a sovereign state by the majority of nations, yet it retains its own government, armed forces and political system completely independent from Beijing. It may be as economically interlinked with the PRC as can be, but it still cannot be called part of China.
China's military is way more advanced and capable then that of poor ($), conscript depended and low army moral plagued Russia - it wouldn't be that easy, but China could do it any time.
Russia's biggest issue in that regard is corruption, from the General to the private. The chinese military has a lot of new, shiny equipment, but none of that is battle-tested, especially not the Navy, which in an amphibious invasion is the most important factor in the equation. The training of the chinese sailor and marine is more important in that regard than the new technologies employed.
The "inciting" rhetoric is coming from outside - unfortunately IMO, Xi wasn't well advised to bring in the added sentence (reunification if necessary with military means) - but obviously he found it to be a clear massage add-on, to those wanting to play with fire.

The Taiwan issue is (as you know) a hell of a complicated issue - and if outsiders keep involving and inciting, the chances of a military conflict gets higher and higher.
Over in the Is Taiwan Next thread I wagered a guess as to when an invasion(should the issue not be resolved diplomatically) would occur, and the most precise date I put for was April of 2027. China would have the necessary build-up and its advantage overwhelming, compared to the present not too big advantage, economically it might be equal to the US and it would have the immense centennial propaganda benefit of finishing what the Kuomintang started with the Shanghai massacre of the 12th of April 1927.
China and it's regarded province of Taiwan - have more or less coexisted very peacefull and economically very successfully in the past 40 years. I don't have a Cristal ball but I do see a high chance for China becoming more liberal in the next 25 years and as such becoming far more attractive for the people on Taiwan to actually see the benefit of really sharing one government. - as such truly becoming one country.
And it is this probability, that makes the USA worry day and night - as such they are and will do everything to disturb and disrupt this process.
The more the USA and it's buddies instigate, the less liberal China will get - again a clear policy instigated and conducted by the USA.
As you said, none here have a crystal ball to gauge the future with... but I don't see China turning more liberal as long as Xi is in power and the West, especially US, remains as hostile as they are now. Western liberalism won't be idolized as long as Trump(or whatever other ridiculous idiot) is perceived as "the leader of the free world". The US doesn't need to instigate much with it's propaganda machinery, it simply needs to be as extroverted, arrogant and overbearing as it has been, all the while not addressing the myriad of issues plaguing that country, and the CCP will have plenty of material to work with.
 

Gary

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has nothing to do with taking over Taiwan.If they wanted to, they could have done it yesterday.
China's military is way more advanced and capable then that of poor ($), conscript depended and low army moral plagued Russia - it wouldn't be that easy, but China could do it any time.

No. There's only a two month window in a year where China could realistically mount an invasion of Taiwan.

I know when, Taiwan knows when, China knows when that time interval is.

They certainly could NOT do it anytime.
 

Jagdflieger

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Xi would be a moron if he considers the average taiwanese to be an enemy, but taiwanense or western politicians "provoking an independence move" of Taiwan is a questionable statement. Taiwan is not recognised as a sovereign state by the majority of nations, yet it retains its own government, armed forces and political system completely independent from Beijing. It may be as economically interlinked with the PRC as can be, but it still cannot be called part of China.
I would say that the Sino-US treaty, and all other international treaties incl. the UN status would disagree with that last sentence.
The US issue is actually funny in a way - that they pledged to supply weapons to Taiwan for "self-defense" but adhering to the joint statement of 1 country 2 systems. So who are they actually supplying with weapons? :D
Russia's biggest issue in that regard is corruption, from the General to the private. The chinese military has a lot of new, shiny equipment, but none of that is battle-tested, especially not the Navy, which in an amphibious invasion is the most important factor in the equation. The training of the chinese sailor and marine is more important in that regard than the new technologies employed.
Corruption is certainly a main issue for Russia - but independently their GDP respectively their Defense budget is simply too small to support the numbers they are fielding, so some units get a $ and others $100.
China certainly is totally inexperienced in regards to actual modern warfare. However do not underestimate today's level and input into maneuvers - something that China is performing in numbers and frequency of which the USA or NATO can only dream about.
European NATO aside from the UK with it's mini-show Falklands also had until today no practical experience in regards to actual warfare. Yet they were considered trained and capable to get into a war with Russia and it's Warsaw Pact for 40 years.
Even when the US launched Operation Desert Storm they basically lacked any practical mass modern warfare experience since Vietnam. (almost 30 years).

Over in the Is Taiwan Next thread I wagered a guess as to when an invasion(should the issue not be resolved diplomatically) would occur, and the most precise date I put for was April of 2027. China would have the necessary build-up and its advantage overwhelming, compared to the present not too big advantage, economically it might be equal to the US and it would have the immense centennial propaganda benefit of finishing what the Kuomintang started with the Shanghai massacre of the 12th of April 1927.
It sounds like a good anchor-point for a bet. But again if Tsai Ing-Wen had proclaimed independence 2 years ago or tomorrow - China would have successfully taken them. China IMO doesn't need e.g. aircraft-carriers to take on Taiwan - that province is just a 100km away. Those carriers aka Blue water fleet will be used by China just as the USA uses theirs - to intimate or kick so called underdogs butts. Or in a more diplomatic way; to project military power across the world.
As you said, none here have a crystal ball to gauge the future with... but I don't see China turning more liberal as long as Xi is in power and the West, especially US, remains as hostile as they are now. Western liberalism won't be idolized as long as Trump(or whatever other ridiculous idiot) is perceived as "the leader of the free world". The US doesn't need to instigate much with it's propaganda machinery, it simply needs to be as extroverted, arrogant and overbearing as it has been, all the while not addressing the myriad of issues plaguing that country, and the CCP will have plenty of material to work with.
Especially under Xi, China has become far more liberal and open towards it's population and the world then before - school-policy, family policies, labor-policies, Investment, permanent residence status, etc. etc. The one road one world project has opened China to the world and vice versa. No matter how much the USA want's to criticize it or the idea of enhancing global commerce.
Xi certainly took care of corruption and as such has become eventually even more powerful then Mao.
What the world is simply not used to, is that Beijing aka Xi, is talking back - voicing it's own opinions and defending it's policy that is designed to guarantee it's citizens well being. E.g. professional district committees did not exist before Xi - you have an issue with a directive or law from your local government ? anyone can go there and file his complaint, objections and concerns. No one gets punished for this.

Remember all these forced evictions by property moguls and their government serfs? - no more, there is a very well accepted compensation system introduced by Xi and the people love it.

You want to blog and voice out that XI and the CCP are a..holes - okay off you go - no, not for a holiday.

You are a German (about 5 weeks ago) and publicly circulate a video - telling everyone that you object to a Covid quarantine, that you have informed the German
Embassy and they told you to refuse - then you further continue that you will inform the German press about this and that the CCP is a bunch of stupid - fu.....
that China's Covid measures are fu..., not he, has to go to a hospital but the hospital staff has to come and see him, and that China is more worse and incapable then the last 3rd world country, and they are simply fu...stupid, etc, etc,

Yes, I am aware that this is considered to be liberal in the West - but sorry here in China no such thing indeed. And I am very okay with, that such a person is placed in a cell with 9-12 others for a week or two before being brought to the airport.

Hmm... maybe I am not a liberal person after-all :D
 

Isa Khan

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Naval variant of the Army Aviation‘s Z-8L maybe for the PLANMC as a replacement or complement for the Z-8C.

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