Dr. Brenda Shaffer, Ph.D.
The purpose of this article is to provide analysts in intelligence or other government agencies a guide to understanding how energy data can be applied to the analysis of a range of issues in countries around the world.
US government agencies and many foreign governments track energy data from around the world for a variety of reasons, some obvious, some less so. The numbers provide material to forecast energy trends, including energy demand and supply, prices, and energy trade flows. Less obviously, intelligence agencies apply energy data to political and economic forecasts, such as estimates of the impact of energy revenue trends on the stability and foreign policies of energy-producing states. Such data is especially important in forecasting political and economic outcomes in major oil and natural gas exporting states, most importantly in the Middle East, where study of energy data trends can contribute to predictions of broad economic trends and assessments of the likelihood and timing of anti-government activity.
The purpose of this article is to provide analysts in intelligence or other government agencies a guide to understanding how energy data can be applied to the analysis of a range of issues in countries around the world. It can be used to help train new analysts or to serve as a checklist for analysts and diplomats responsible for monitoring and reporting on developments in foreign countries. The principles in this article can also be applied to academic, commercial, and other entities assessing political and economic developments and political risk.
This guide is a result of my interactions with analysts at government research units in various countries and during NATO-sponsored courses on energy security, which revealed that NATO members and associated countries vary significantly in how they collect, analyze, and apply energy data to their analysis.
In this article, I will walk readers through the following applications of energy data:
• the use of energy data to improve broad understanding of nations and regions
• specific indicators in energy data useful for political and economic forecasting
• issues related to electricity supply
• the importance of the resource depletion rate
• the integration of data showing the gap between energy export revenue and revenue necessary for a balanced budget together with the level of wealth reserves in energy producers • the implications of subsidies policies
app.blackhole.run
The purpose of this article is to provide analysts in intelligence or other government agencies a guide to understanding how energy data can be applied to the analysis of a range of issues in countries around the world.
US government agencies and many foreign governments track energy data from around the world for a variety of reasons, some obvious, some less so. The numbers provide material to forecast energy trends, including energy demand and supply, prices, and energy trade flows. Less obviously, intelligence agencies apply energy data to political and economic forecasts, such as estimates of the impact of energy revenue trends on the stability and foreign policies of energy-producing states. Such data is especially important in forecasting political and economic outcomes in major oil and natural gas exporting states, most importantly in the Middle East, where study of energy data trends can contribute to predictions of broad economic trends and assessments of the likelihood and timing of anti-government activity.
The purpose of this article is to provide analysts in intelligence or other government agencies a guide to understanding how energy data can be applied to the analysis of a range of issues in countries around the world. It can be used to help train new analysts or to serve as a checklist for analysts and diplomats responsible for monitoring and reporting on developments in foreign countries. The principles in this article can also be applied to academic, commercial, and other entities assessing political and economic developments and political risk.
This guide is a result of my interactions with analysts at government research units in various countries and during NATO-sponsored courses on energy security, which revealed that NATO members and associated countries vary significantly in how they collect, analyze, and apply energy data to their analysis.
In this article, I will walk readers through the following applications of energy data:
• the use of energy data to improve broad understanding of nations and regions
• specific indicators in energy data useful for political and economic forecasting
• issues related to electricity supply
• the importance of the resource depletion rate
• the integration of data showing the gap between energy export revenue and revenue necessary for a balanced budget together with the level of wealth reserves in energy producers • the implications of subsidies policies
1 file shared with you
This file shared with BlackHole. Send any file using blockchain technology.
app.blackhole.run
