America’s massive profit at Australia’s expense revealed as trade war with China escalates

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America’s massive profit at Australia’s expense revealed as trade war with China escalates
The US is one of Australia’s closest allies and says it has our back. But behind the scenes, America is profiting big time from our misfortune.

December 3, 2021 - 7:53AM

Australia’s devastating trade war with China has been a crushing blow for many industries, and the wider economy as a whole.
And while our allies have publicly backed us, behind the scenes, they’ve quietly benefited from Australia’s misfortune.

That’s according to an eye-opening new report from the Australia-China Relations Institute (ACRI) based at the University of Technology Sydney, which has detailed a string of harsh economic realities facing Australia as a result of our spat with China.

Penned by director James Laurenceson and project and research officer Thomas Pantle, the damning report reveals Australia’s exports across 12 key commodities impacted by Beijing’s sanctions – such as coal, barley, beef, timber, lobster and wine – plummeted by a staggering $17.3 billion in the first nine months of 2021, compared with 2019.

But at the same time, our closest “strategic friends” – led by the US, but also including Canada and New Zealand – have enjoyed a windfall, with US exports jumping by $A6.3 billion, Canada’s by $A1.5 billion and New Zealand’s by $A1.1 billion.

In other words, while our partners have loudly supported us on the world stage, they’ve had no qualms when it came to muscling in trade-wise.

“Australia’s strategic friends have offered useful rhetorical support for Australia’s predicament,” the report states.

“But outcomes demonstrate a parallel commitment to advancing their own commercial interests, including by snapping up lost Australian sales and trading more with the People’s Republic of China (PRC).”

And the betrayal goes a step further, with our allies also failing to buy from us in our time of need.

“Expressions of solidarity with Canberra have also not extended to strategic friends significantly stepping up their purchases of Australian goods disrupted by the PRC to help mitigate costs,” the report continues.

For example, from January to September this year, sales of Australian wine to China dropped by a massive $US480.5 million ($A675 million), compared with 2019.

But surprisingly, US purchases rose by just $US7.1 million ($A9.9 million).

“For Australia’s wine producers, market diversification is as difficult, long and costly a process as ever,” the report explains.

“Nor has there been a broader reorientation of Australia’s trade patterns towards countries with which Australia has shared values, such as a commitment to democracy.

“Comparing January-September 2021 with 2019, global markets have redirected Australia’s exports of goods like coal to Turkey (up $US191.4 million, $A269 million), barley to Saudi Arabia (up $US520.4 million, $A731 million) and cotton to Vietnam (up $US350.5 million, $A492 million) – other countries where an alignment with Australia’s values is not clear.”

‘This is not normal’

Speaking to news.com.au, Prof Laurenceson stressed that while “the numbers are quite brutal”, it in no way undermined Australia’s crucial alliance with the US.

“This should not surprise anyone, and it certainly does not surprise Australian businesses,” he explained.

“This is the real world – you can be great mates with your strategic and security allies, but at the same time, producers from those countries can be your biggest commercial rivals.

“Nobody is saying don’t work with the US … nobody is talking down that alliance, because this is precisely what was expected – that we would end up bearing the costs.

“We’re not suggesting the US is doing something devious here – Washington is not going to tell its producers ‘please don’t take advantage of these opportunities because we want to help Australia’ – that’s a joke and it’s not going to happen, the costs are borne by Australian producers, and Australian producers alone.”

Concerningly, Prof Laurenceson said he didn’t believe our current predicament was inevitable, and that instead, it was the consequences of our own actions.

“Plenty of countries have challenges in their relationship with China, but no other country has been hit by the range of trade disruptions Australia has at the moment,” he said.
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“This is not normal, and I think with effective diplomacy, we didn’t have to be in this situation.

“People put up stupid binaries and say, ‘What do you expect, that we shouldn’t stand up for our values?’ Every country stands up for its values, but Australia was beating its chest and running ahead of the rest, and that poor diplomacy got us into this predicament.”

Sadly, Prof Laurenceson said he didn’t expect the trade war to end any time soon, as both China and Australia appeared to be unwilling to back down.

ScoMo the ‘root cause’ of deterioration

Unsurprisingly, the report’s findings were picked up by Chinese Communist Party mouthpiece the Global Times, which argued in a recent article that the “disappointment” felt by Aussie businesses regarding the trade war was not just levelled at China, but the Morrison government too.

“They must be clearly aware that the root cause of the deterioration of China-Australia relations does not lie in China, but lies in the Morrison administration, which has repeatedly trodden on China’s red line on issues concerning China’s core interest,”

“It’s believed they may have more dissatisfaction toward their own government.

“ … the fact is that Australia’s constant provocations on China are the root cause of the deterioration of China-Australia ties. And China’s responses have just been a rational reaction to Australia’s provocations.”

 
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While Australian exports to China fall, the USA is picking up our share | ABC News
 

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US, allies 'biggest beneficiaries' of Australia's $17b China trade row, report finds
ABC Rural
/ By Daniel Mercer and Tom Edwards
Nov 30 2021

Australia's closest security allies, led by the United States, have been the biggest beneficiaries of Beijing's campaign of economic coercion against Canberra, a report has found.

Key points:
  • UTS finds the US and other allies have been the biggest winners from Australia's trade war with China
  • Australian exports across 12 commodities fell $17.3b compared with 2019, while US exports rose $6.3b
  • The report comes amid a freeze in relations between Canberra and Beijing on various grounds, including national security

More than 18 months after China kicked off the trade war against Australia amid a series of spats between the two countries, the University of Technology Sydney found it was Canberra's partners who were picking up much of the slack.

UTS's Australia-China Relations Institute has released figures that show the value of 12 Australian exports to China affected by sanctions fell by $US12.6 billion ($17.3b) in the first nine months of this year compared with 2019.

During the same period, the value of US exports of the same commodities increased by $US4.6 billion ($6.3 billion), while those of Canada and New Zealand jumped by $US1.1b and $US786 million, respectively.

Insitute director James Laurenceson said the data showed Australia's pursuit of closer security ties with the US and other western democracies was not stopping its allies from capitalising on its trade predicament.


"Of course, the US is our great security ally and strategic mate," Dr Laurenceson said.

"Sometimes we get very excited by US-based commentators, and indeed senior Biden officials, saying, 'We will stand shoulder to shoulder with Australia.'

"But actually when you dig into the trade data, the United States is the country that's stealing more Australian sales in China than any other country.
"So strategic friends can be fierce commercial rivals and that's exactly what we're seeing."

Australia bears costs 'alone'
Over several months from May 2020, Australian exporters were hit with a series of crippling trade strikes by Beijing over grievances that included "siding with the US' anti-China campaign".

Among the industries affected by the measures were coal, barley, beef, timber, lobster and wine.

The university found that in some cases, the value of the targeted trades fell to zero, while in many other cases exports were reduced dramatically.

Dr Laurenceson said the actions of the US and other Australian allies were understandable and in the national interests of those countries.

But he said it was imperative Australia faced up to the cost of its own actions, which he argued had been hidden by record prices for iron ore, the country's biggest export to China.

He said the university's analysis had shown that despite the increasingly popular belief that western economies were "decoupling" from a bloc led by China, the numbers suggested otherwise.

"I'm not suggesting we should back down because Beijing threatens us," he said.
"But what I am suggesting is that we should be very clear on what the costs are and who is bearing those costs — and it is Australia and Australian producers alone."

 

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