Australia Navy Australia nuclear submarine deal: Aukus defence pact with US and UK means $90bn contract with France will be scrapped

[Nilgiri]

Reports seem to be coalescing around the same story:

1) USN submarines forward-deployed to Western Australia by 2027.

2) Australia to buy 3x Virginia class with option for 2 more in the "early 2030s". Implied but not explicitly stated that these would be used ships - presumably the oldest in the fleet which would be ~25 years old by then.

3) Australia will join the UK SSN(R) programme, with some production for it taking place in Australia.

 

[Nilgiri]

We have the statement @DAVEBLOGGINS et al:

Essentially, SSN(R) is now "SSN-AUKUS" (I really hope they change that name).

First UK boat is late 2030s, with the first Australian one a few years later.

Reactors are all going to be built in the UK and shipped over as sealed-for-life units.

From 2027 there is going to be "rotational basing" in Australia for a number of Astute and Virginia class boats.

=========================================================================================

Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS | The White House

In September 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced AUKUS – a new security partnership that will promote a free and open Indo-Pacific that is secure and stable. The first major initiative of AUKUS was our historic trilateral decision to support Australia acquiring...

www.whitehouse.gov

MARCH 13, 2023
Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS
HOME
BRIEFING ROOM
STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

In September 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced AUKUS – a new security partnership that will promote a free and open Indo-Pacific that is secure and stable.

The first major initiative of AUKUS was our historic trilateral decision to support Australia acquiring conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs). Today, we announce our pathway to achieve this critical capability.

Together we will deliver SSN-AUKUS – a trilaterally-developed submarine based on the United Kingdom’s next-generation design that incorporates technology from all three nations, including cutting edge U.S. submarine technologies. Australia and the United Kingdom will operate SSN-AUKUS as their submarine of the future. Australia and the United Kingdom will begin work to build SSN-AUKUS in their domestic shipyards within this decade.

In order to deliver conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines to Australia at the earliest possible date, we intend to pursue the following phased approach, moving through each phase based on mutual commitments from each nation:


Beginning in 2023, Australian military and civilian personnel will embed with the U.S. Navy, the Royal Navy, and in the United States and United Kingdom submarine industrial bases to accelerate the training of Australian personnel. The United States plans to increase SSN port visits to Australia beginning in 2023, with Australian sailors joining U.S. crews for training and development; the United Kingdom will increase visits to Australia beginning in 2026.

As early as 2027, the United States and United Kingdom plan to begin forward rotations of SSNs to Australia to accelerate the development of the Australian naval personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory system necessary to establish a sovereign SSN capability.

Starting in the early 2030s, pending Congressional approval, the United States intends to sell Australia three Virginia class submarines, with the potential to sell up to two more if needed. This step will systematically grow Australia’s sovereign SSN capability and support capacity.
In the late 2030s, the United Kingdom will deliver its first SSN-AUKUS to the Royal Navy. Australia will deliver the first SSN-AUKUS built in Australia to the Royal Australian Navy in the early 2040s.

This plan is designed to support Australia’s development of the infrastructure, technical capabilities, industry and human capital necessary to produce, maintain, operate, and steward a sovereign fleet of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines. Australia is fully committed to responsible stewardship of naval nuclear propulsion technology.

When we announced the AUKUS partnership in September 2021, we committed to set the highest nuclear non-proliferation standard. The plan we announce today delivers on this commitment and reflects our longstanding leadership in, and respect for, the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. We continue to consult with the International Atomic Energy Agency to develop a non-proliferation approach that sets the strongest precedent for the acquisition of a nuclear-powered submarine capability.

Our plan elevates all three nations’ industrial capacity to produce and sustain interoperable nuclear-powered submarines for decades to come, expands our individual and collective undersea presence in the Indo-Pacific, and contributes to global security and stability. In these outcomes, AUKUS reflects the principle that shared action, taken in partnership, can benefit all.

Implementing AUKUS will also require robust, novel information sharing and technology cooperation. Our nations are committed to further trilateral collaboration that will strengthen our joint capabilities, enhance our information and technology sharing, and integrate our industrial bases and supply chains while strengthening the security regimes of each nation.

For more than a century, our three nations have stood shoulder to shoulder, along with other allies and partners, to help sustain peace, stability, and prosperity around the world, including in the Indo-Pacific. We believe in a world that protects freedom and respects human rights, the rule of law, the independence of sovereign states, and the rules-based international order. The steps we are announcing today will help us to advance these mutually beneficial objectives in the decades to come.

 

[Afif]

@Gary get ready, your security planners are going to have some major headaches in the next decade.

 

[DAVEBLOGGINS]

We have the statement @DAVEBLOGGINS et al:

Essentially, SSN(R) is now "SSN-AUKUS" (I really hope they change that name).

First UK boat is late 2030s, with the first Australian one a few years later.

Reactors are all going to be built in the UK and shipped over as sealed-for-life units.

From 2027 there is going to be "rotational basing" in Australia for a number of Astute and Virginia class boats.

=========================================================================================

Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS | The White House

In September 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced AUKUS – a new security partnership that will promote a free and open Indo-Pacific that is secure and stable. The first major initiative of AUKUS was our historic trilateral decision to support Australia acquiring...

www.whitehouse.gov

MARCH 13, 2023
Joint Leaders Statement on AUKUS
HOME
BRIEFING ROOM
STATEMENTS AND RELEASES

In September 2021, Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States announced AUKUS – a new security partnership that will promote a free and open Indo-Pacific that is secure and stable.

The first major initiative of AUKUS was our historic trilateral decision to support Australia acquiring conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines (SSNs). Today, we announce our pathway to achieve this critical capability.

Together we will deliver SSN-AUKUS – a trilaterally-developed submarine based on the United Kingdom’s next-generation design that incorporates technology from all three nations, including cutting edge U.S. submarine technologies. Australia and the United Kingdom will operate SSN-AUKUS as their submarine of the future. Australia and the United Kingdom will begin work to build SSN-AUKUS in their domestic shipyards within this decade.

In order to deliver conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines to Australia at the earliest possible date, we intend to pursue the following phased approach, moving through each phase based on mutual commitments from each nation:


Beginning in 2023, Australian military and civilian personnel will embed with the U.S. Navy, the Royal Navy, and in the United States and United Kingdom submarine industrial bases to accelerate the training of Australian personnel. The United States plans to increase SSN port visits to Australia beginning in 2023, with Australian sailors joining U.S. crews for training and development; the United Kingdom will increase visits to Australia beginning in 2026.

As early as 2027, the United States and United Kingdom plan to begin forward rotations of SSNs to Australia to accelerate the development of the Australian naval personnel, workforce, infrastructure and regulatory system necessary to establish a sovereign SSN capability.

Starting in the early 2030s, pending Congressional approval, the United States intends to sell Australia three Virginia class submarines, with the potential to sell up to two more if needed. This step will systematically grow Australia’s sovereign SSN capability and support capacity.
In the late 2030s, the United Kingdom will deliver its first SSN-AUKUS to the Royal Navy. Australia will deliver the first SSN-AUKUS built in Australia to the Royal Australian Navy in the early 2040s.

This plan is designed to support Australia’s development of the infrastructure, technical capabilities, industry and human capital necessary to produce, maintain, operate, and steward a sovereign fleet of conventionally-armed, nuclear-powered submarines. Australia is fully committed to responsible stewardship of naval nuclear propulsion technology.

When we announced the AUKUS partnership in September 2021, we committed to set the highest nuclear non-proliferation standard. The plan we announce today delivers on this commitment and reflects our longstanding leadership in, and respect for, the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. We continue to consult with the International Atomic Energy Agency to develop a non-proliferation approach that sets the strongest precedent for the acquisition of a nuclear-powered submarine capability.

Our plan elevates all three nations’ industrial capacity to produce and sustain interoperable nuclear-powered submarines for decades to come, expands our individual and collective undersea presence in the Indo-Pacific, and contributes to global security and stability. In these outcomes, AUKUS reflects the principle that shared action, taken in partnership, can benefit all.

Implementing AUKUS will also require robust, novel information sharing and technology cooperation. Our nations are committed to further trilateral collaboration that will strengthen our joint capabilities, enhance our information and technology sharing, and integrate our industrial bases and supply chains while strengthening the security regimes of each nation.

For more than a century, our three nations have stood shoulder to shoulder, along with other allies and partners, to help sustain peace, stability, and prosperity around the world, including in the Indo-Pacific. We believe in a world that protects freedom and respects human rights, the rule of law, the independence of sovereign states, and the rules-based international order. The steps we are announcing today will help us to advance these mutually beneficial objectives in the decades to come.

A lot of "hoops" (and headaches) to go through over the next years and decades to come for all concerned, before Australia can become an SSN nation. My only hope is that Canada can at some point be a part of this alliance and have it called "AUCANUKUS" as well. But yes, the SSN-AUKUS needs to have a name change. HMAS Australia class SSNs?. Cheers!

 

[Afif]

I am still wondering why Australia chose the British option in the long run.

 

[DAVEBLOGGINS]

I am still wondering why Australia chose the British option in the long run.

Hello Afif. Probably because the Aussies felt it was the most prudent way to go over the next couple of decades. You have to crawl before you can walk, and walk before you can run, and run before you can fly. When all is said and done, it should be the best way for Australia considering it will cost them dearly (around $368B AUD when all is said and done). the UK SSN (R) will be larger and heavier than the current Astute or Virginia class (around 9000 + tonnes it has been said). More in line with the UK SSBN Dreadnought class now being built but on a smaller scale. Sort of like a baby brother to the SSBN, but with no SSBNs aboard.

 

[Afif]

Hello Afif. Probably because the Aussies felt it was the most prudent way to go over the next couple of decades. You have to crawl before you can walk, and walk before you can run, and run before you can fly. When all is said and done, it should be the best way for Australia considering it will cost them dearly (around $300B AUD when all is said and done). the UK SSN (R) will be larger and heavier than the current Astute or Virginia class (around 9000 + tonnes it has been said). More in line with the UK SSBN Dreadnought class now being built but on a smaller scale. Sort of like a baby brother to the SSBN, but with no SSBNs aboard.

Yeah, I know. But I was wondering about SSN(X) given you guys are already buying three Virginia.

 

[DAVEBLOGGINS]

Yeah, I know. But I was wondering about SSN(X) given you guys are already buying three Virginia.

Hello again Afif. "We" (Canada) are not buying 3 Virginia class SSNs. Although I wish we were. This is an Australian initiative as part of AUKUS that may or may not fall "flat-on-its-face" and is frought with may blockages including the US Congress to deal with. IMO an "AUCANUKUS" deal should give Canada an in for this technology. The SSN (X) which is the replacement for the Astute class in the future is strictly an American thing which Australia has decided not to go that way probably because of costs for Australia.

 

[Gary]

@Gary get ready, your security planners are going to have some major headaches in the next decade.

A senior Indonesian official says the country’s sea lanes should not be used by Australian nuclear-propelled submarines because “AUKUS was created for fighting”.

Blindsided by the original announcement of the AUKUS agreement in September 2021, Indonesia had warned Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines could instigate a regional arms race that would heighten tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

‘AUKUS created for fighting’: Push for Indonesia to refuse access to subs

Indonesia is concerned Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines could instigate a regional arms race that would heighten tensions.

www.theage.com.au

We don't know if we are capable enough to constantly detect the latest SSN in our ocean, but this is what Indonesia's elite thinks of AUKUS, Off course this doesn't hide the fact that China is by far the larger threat of the two.

For our side is an increase in ASW assets, the 6 FREMMS that we're eyeing are FREMM ASW variant, there's also plans to install underwater listening device like SOSUS in Indonesia's choke point such as Sunda strait.

And our own submarine modernization program (Scorpene and U214NG, both will likely be purchased by Jakarta).

 

[Gary]

A senior Indonesian official says the country’s sea lanes should not be used by Australian nuclear-propelled submarines because “AUKUS was created for fighting”.

Blindsided by the original announcement of the AUKUS agreement in September 2021, Indonesia had warned Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines could instigate a regional arms race that would heighten tensions in the Indo-Pacific.

‘AUKUS created for fighting’: Push for Indonesia to refuse access to subs

Indonesia is concerned Australia’s acquisition of nuclear-powered submarines could instigate a regional arms race that would heighten tensions.

www.theage.com.au

We don't know if we are capable enough to constantly detect the latest SSN in our ocean, but this is what Indonesia's elite thinks of AUKUS, Off course this doesn't hide the fact that China is by far the larger threat of the two.

For our side is an increase in ASW assets, the 6 FREMMS that we're eyeing are FREMM ASW variant, there's also plans to install underwater listening device like SOSUS in Indonesia's choke point such as Sunda strait.

And our own submarine modernization program (Scorpene and U214NG, both will likely be purchased by Jakarta).

This from 2017

Monitoring Foreign Submarine, Government Installs Underwater Sonar Installation

The government will install a seabed sonar or 'deep ear' installation in the Indonesian Archipelagic Sea Channels (ALKI). In defense circles this tool is often called the SOSUS Array (Sound Surveillance System Array) (photo : Trishul)

KATADATA - The government will install a seabed sonar or 'deep ear' installation at the entrance strait of the Indonesian Archipelagic Sea Lanes (ALKI). The function of the installation is to detect the presence of other countries' submarines passing through this strategic crossing point.

Commander of the Indonesian Fleet for the West Region (Pangarmabar) Rear Admiral TNI Aan Kurnia revealed, for the initial stage, this underwater sonar installation will be installed in the Sunda Strait which is between the islands of Java and Sumatra. Another location that will be installed with this tool is the Lombok Strait, which is flanked by the islands of Bali and Lombok Island.

If the process goes smoothly, the installation will be installed at ALKI's strategic strait points. "So (the sonar installation) will guard our straits," Aan said after meeting Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan at the Office of the Coordinating Ministry for Maritime Affairs and Resources, Jakarta, Monday (31/7).

Indonesian Archipelagic Sea Lanes (ALKI) are sea lanes designated as international shipping and flight lanes within the territory of Indonesia. ALKI is set to connect three free waters, namely the Indian Ocean, the South China Sea, and the Pacific Ocean. The implementation of the right of archipelagic sea lane passage is regulated based on international law of the sea conventions.

It is this channel for shipping and flights that is used by foreign ships or aircraft when crossing the sea and airspace of Indonesia. The determination of ALKI is intended so that international shipping and flights can be carried out continuously, directly and as quickly as possible and not be hindered by the territory of Indonesia.


Alur laut kepulauan Indonesia (image : MaritimNews)

ALKI is divided into three crossings. ALKI I crosses the South China Sea, the Karimata Strait, the Java Sea, the Sunda Strait and the Indian Ocean. ALKI II crosses the Pacific Ocean, Sulawesi Sea, Makassar Strait, Flores Sea, Lombok Strait and the Indian Ocean. While ALKI III crosses the Pacific Ocean, Maluku Sea, Seram Sea, Banda Sea, Ombai Strait, Sawu Sea, Indian Ocean.

ALKI I and ALKI II are indeed the most crowded crossings. So far, the Indonesian Navy's warship patrols have detected several foreign submarines passing under the sea at several ALKI points. The problem is that warships cannot patrol continuously because they periodically have to return to base.

Hence, the government wants to install underwater sonar installations at ALKI points. With this tool, monitoring of passing surface ships and submarines can be carried out continuously for 24 hours without the need to send warships to the location.

Aan also said the installation would rely on technology made by Indonesia itself. But unfortunately he did not reveal which institution or company would make this 'deep ear' system. "The domestic technology used is extraordinary," he said.

To increase anti-submarine operations capabilities, last year, the Indonesian Navy ordered 11 anti-submarine helicopters to rebuild the world-respected Squadron of 100 submarine hunters in the 1960s. The eleven AKS helicopters are produced in stages in France by Airbus Helicopters in collaboration with PT Dirgantara Indonesia.

The Coordinating Minister for Maritime Affairs Luhut Binsar Panjaitan a few weeks ago also asked PT PAL (Persero) to be able to supply all the needs of the Indonesian Navy fleet in 2018. This target is expected to improve the company's performance, which currently only produces 10-15 percent of factory capacity. "We want next year to have a maximum (production capacity)," said Luhut.

Awasi Kapal Selam Asing, Pemerintah Pasang Instalasi Sonar Bawah Laut

01 Agustus 2017 Pemerintah akan memasang instalasi sonar dasar laut atau 'deep ear' di Alur Laut Kepulauan Indonesia (ALKI). Di kalanga...

defense-studies.blogspot.com

 

[Afif]

@Gary after watching Indonesia's geography I just realized it is pretty advantageous in this context.

However, in my opinion Indonesia needs at least 12 FREMM ( preferably 18 ) to achieve sufficient ASW capability in that vast area of indo-pacific region.

 

[Afif]

Hello again Afif. "We" (Canada) are not buying 3 Virginia class SSNs. Although I wish we were. This is an Australian initiative as part of AUKUS that may or may not fall "flat-on-its-face" and is frought with may blockages including the US Congress to deal with. IMO an "AUCANUKUS" deal should give Canada an in for this technology. The SSN (X) which is the replacement for the Astute class in the future is strictly an American thing which Australia has decided not to go that way probably because of costs for Australia.

My bad, I just realized i mixed you up with somebody else. Anyway, thanks for the reply.

 

[Gary]

@Gary after watching Indonesia's geography I just realized it is pretty advantageous in this context.

However, in my opinion Indonesia needs at least 12 FREMM ( preferably 18 ) to achieve sufficient ASW capability in that vast area of indo-pacific region.

Yes, but we must find balance between our need and money. other than the 6 FREMM, many doesn't notice that Indonesian navy planners put quite an emphasis on ASW on its vessel.

• SIGMA 10514 uses CODAE for maximum quietness during ASW hunt instead of CODAD, CODAG etc
• SIGMA 9013 has its sonar upgraded earlier than its air surveillance radar
• There's also talks of acquiring not additional FREMM but 30FFM from Japan, and we know 30FFM is optimized for ASW operation

 

[Afif]

Yes, but we must find balance between our need and money. other than the 6 FREMM, many doesn't notice that Indonesian navy planners put quite an emphasis on ASW on its vessel.

• SIGMA 10514 uses CODAE for maximum quietness during ASW hunt instead of CODAD, CODAG etc
• SIGMA 9013 has its sonar upgraded earlier than its air surveillance radar
• There's also talks of acquiring not additional FREMM but 30FFM from Japan, and we know 30FFM is optimized for ASW operation

Dutch, British, Italian and Japanese! Doesn't it feels little stretched?

 

[Gary]

Dutch, British, Italian and Japanese! Doesn't it feels little stretched?

very