News Biden to announce joint deal with U.K. and Australia on advanced defense-tech sharing

the

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  • President Joe Biden will announce a new working group with Britain and Australia to share advanced technologies in a thinly veiled bid to counter China, a White House official and a Congressional staffer told POLITICO.
  • The trio, which will be known by the acronym AUUKUS, will make it easier for the nations to share information and know-how in key technological areas like artificial intelligence, cyber, underwater systems and long-range strike capabilities
  • One of the people said there will be a nuclear element to the pact in which the U.S. and U.K. share their knowledge of how to maintain nuclear-defense infrastructure.
  • There’s nothing explicitly mentioning China in the three-way deal, the people said, but both noted that the subtext of the announcement is that this is another move by Western allies to push back on China’s rise in the military and technology arenas.
  • Biden will announce the deal in a 5:00 p.m. address Wednesday.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/09/15/biden-deal-uk-australia-defense-tech-sharing-511877

https://www.afr.com/politics/federa...french-submarine-deal-is-dead-20210915-p58rzo

| If this is true, it wouldn't be a surprise if you see other countries pursue nuclear powered subs, most notably South Korea and Japan.

Currently, only the USA, Russia, China , UK , France and India have nuclear propulsion technology.
 

RogerRanger

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Why does this mean Japan and South Korea will get SSN's?

I am opposed to this agreement as a British person, I want less to do with the Americans.
 

RogerRanger

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India doesn't yet have their own subs does it? Japan could make SSN's, but it would take a while for them to get them. Not sure about South Korea. Australia and Canada should have SSN's anyway.
 

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India doesn't yet have their own subs does it? Japan could make SSN's, but it would take a while for them to get them. Not sure about South Korea. Australia and Canada should have SSN's anyway.

1 Arihant-class SSBN is operational (conducted first deterrence patrol in 2018), another is In the water awaiting commissioning, and the 3rd (bigger one) is being fitted out. A 4th is presumably under construction.

No SSNs yet though - but a program for them (along with a future class of larger SSBNs) is well underway.
 

the

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Why does this mean Japan and South Korea will get SSN's?

I am opposed to this agreement as a British person, I want less to do with the Americans.
Its not that "they will get them" but more it provides a legitimate path towards procurement. Like Non-nuclear weapon states can use the excuse of "Australia" to pursue nuclear powered subs and eventually get there hands on nuclear material that could, in theory, be used to produce nuclear weapons, even if it goes against the Treaty on Non-proliferation.

Essentially, this decision could encourage the loop-holing of the Treaty - somewhat legitimising the process of nuclear material aquirement.

This twitter thread explains it in more detail:

 

RogerRanger

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Its not that "they will get them" but more it provides a legitimate path towards procurement. Like Non-nuclear weapon states can use the excuse of "Australia" to pursue nuclear powered subs and eventually get there hands on nuclear material that could, in theory, be used to produce nuclear weapons, even if it goes against the Treaty on Non-proliferation.

Essentially, this decision could encourage the loop-holing of the Treaty - somewhat legitimising the process of nuclear material aquirement.

This twitter thread explains it in more detail:

Thanks. I get what the thinking is now. However I wouldn't do military stuff because you are worrying about other nations getting it. Australia needs SSN's, always has.

Japan in my view needs them too.

If you feel like it, could you copy and post the thread in a reply to me. As I am banned from Twitter, so I can't view it. Thanks.
 

RogerRanger

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1 Arihant-class SSBN is operational (conducted first deterrence patrol in 2018), another is In the water awaiting commissioning, and the 3rd (bigger one) is being fitted out. A 4th is presumably under construction.

No SSNs yet though - but a program for them (along with a future class of larger SSBNs) is well underway.
Thanks. Good to know.
 

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BY ASSOCIATED PRESS​

WASHINGTON ASIA PACIFIC
SEP 16, 2021 12:10 AM GMT+3
U.S. President Joe Biden, listens as he is joined virtually by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, left, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, speaks about a national security initiative in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2021. (AP Photo)
U.S. President Joe Biden, listens as he is joined virtually by Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison, left, and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, speaks about a national security initiative in the East Room of the White House in Washington, Wednesday, Sept. 15, 2021. (AP Photo)



United States President Joe Biden announced on Wednesday that the United States is joining a new Indo-Pacific security alliance with Britain and Australia that will allow for greater sharing of defense capabilities, a move that could deepen a growing chasm in U.S.-China relations.

Biden, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson and Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison are expected to deliver remarks during a joint virtual event where they'll detail the new alliance that will be called AUKUS.

The new security alliance is likely to be seen as a provocative move by China, which has repeatedly lashed out at Biden as he’s sought to refocus U.S. foreign policy on the Pacific in the early going of his presidency.

Ahead of the announcement, a senior administration official sought to play down the idea that the alliance was meant to serve as a deterrent against China in the region. The official, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preview the announcement, said the alliance’s creation was not aimed at any one country, and is about a larger effort to sustain engagement and deterrence in the Indo-Pacific by the three nations.

The three countries have agreed to share information in areas including artificial intelligence, cyber and underwater defense capabilities, the official said.

The three countries are also expected to announce plans to support Australia acquiring nuclear-powered submarines, the official said. To date, the only country that the United States has shared nuclear propulsion technology with is Britain. The administration official said Australia is not seeking to develop a nuclear weapons program and information sharing would be limited to helping the nation develop a submarine fleet.

The announcement of the new security alliance comes as the U.S.-China relationship has deteriorated. Beijing has taken exception with Biden administration officials repeatedly calling out China over human rights abuses in Xianjing province, the crackdown on democracy activists in Hong Kong, and cybersecurity breaches originating from China, as well as Beijing’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic and what the White House has labeled as “coercive and unfair” trade practices.

Even as White House officials have repeatedly spoken out about China, administration officials say they want to work with Beijing on areas of common interest, including curbing the pandemic and climate change.

Biden spoke by phone with China’s President Xi Jinping last week amid growing frustration on the American side that high-level engagement between the two leaders’ top advisers has been largely unfruitful.

After the 90-minute phone call, official Xinhua News Agency reported that Xi expressed concerns that U.S. government policy toward China has caused “serious difficulties” in relations.

Asked on Tuesday about media reports that Xi had declined to commit to meet with him in person, the U.S. president said it was “untrue.”

The U.S. and Australia, along with India and Japan, are members of a strategic dialogue known as “the Quad.” Biden is set to host fellow Quad leaders at the White House next week.

Biden has sought to rally allies to speak with a more unified voice on China and has tried to send the message that he would take a radically different approach to China than former President Donald Trump, who placed trade and economic issues above all else in the U.S.-China relationship.

In June, at Biden's urging, Group of Seven nations called on China to respect human rights in Hong Kong and Xinjiang province and to permit a full probe into the origins of COVID-19. While the allies broadly agreed to work toward competing against China, there was less unity on how adversarial a public position the group should take.

The president has also sought to make clear to allies, particularly those in the Quad, that his administration would keep focused on China.

With Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, Biden has underscored the U.S. commitment to protecting the Senkaku Islands, a group of uninhabited islets administered by Tokyo but claimed by Beijing. In talks with India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Biden has emphasized the need for “close cooperation to promote a free and open Indo-Pacific.” And with Australia’s Morrison, the president has stressed that the two nations’ alliance was essential to stability in the region.


And at BBC
 

Saithan

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I believe the alliance is a clear expression of who're considered trust worthy. Historically as well.

While QUAD is an alliance I consider to be an attempt to conveniantly try to butter up the countries involved in it. The real strategic alliance is the one between UK, US and Australia.

You could argue that UK should mind its own business since they're located in Europe. All I will say is that back when NATO was established Turkey fought really hard to be part of NATO and not end up in a group of "NATO-like" allies covering ME.

We'd have been hung out to dry much sooner had that been successful. IMO QUAD should be dissolved. Force US, UK and UK to include others in the alliance on equal footing. Without QUAD their so called alliance will be limping.
 

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I believe the alliance is a clear expression of who're considered trust worthy. Historically as well.

While QUAD is an alliance I consider to be an attempt to conveniantly try to butter up the countries involved in it. The real strategic alliance is the one between UK, US and Australia.

You could argue that UK should mind its own business since they're located in Europe. All I will say is that back when NATO was established Turkey fought really hard to be part of NATO and not end up in a group of "NATO-like" allies covering ME.

We'd have been hung out to dry much sooner had that been successful. IMO QUAD should be dissolved. Force US, UK and UK to include others in the alliance on equal footing. Without QUAD their so called alliance will be limping.

AUKUS is primarily a technology-sharing group with the single-point agenda of bringing the nascent Australian military capabilities up to par, in order to ensure Australia (or any future government of theirs) doesn't buckle under Chinese pressure, which was actually a distinct possibility especially under Kevin Rudd and even into earlier years of Morrison.

As of trusted allies, Australia was always part of US intel-sharing (Five-Eyes) and mutual defence agreements (ANZUS), nothing new there.

I don't see why people are drawing a line between AUKUS & QUAD - the former like I said is about tech-sharing with single-point agenda of bringing Aus up to par. The latter is about containment of China, a strategic aim that goes above & beyond, and is in the interest of all QUAD countries (and many others in the region, QUAD should actually be expanded).

Force US, UK and UK to include others in the alliance on equal footing

If by this you mean including India & Japan in AUKUS-type tech-sharing, it won't happen for many reasons. Must say the latter is more likely to be included considering the mutual defence agreements & nuclear umbrella-sharing but Japan may not want/need SSNs the same way AU does.

For example, the diesel sub that AU was planning to get did not even have AIP. But the Japanese domestic industry is way more advanced & their boats include mature fuel-cell AIP along with advanced Li-ion Batteries (LIBs) to extend endurance & power, not to mention the extensive industry surrounding the same - plus their operating distances & proximity to China means their need for a possible SSN is nowhere as critical as Australia's (where range & endurance is of utmost importance):

photo_2021-09-16_11-30-25.jpg


But India would definitely not be included (or even want to be included) for various reasons. Some are:

a) Existing independent nuclear deterrence capability, and mature & continuing program for delivery systems
b) Existing independent nuclear-powered submarine programs & required shore-based infrastructure (underground pens, ELF/VLF, refueling/reactor training etc)
c) Even though several intel-sharing & logistics-support agreements exist (like BECA & COMCASA), there's no mutual defense agreement

To put it in short, there's not much for India to gain even IF a similar agreement as AUKUS were put in place - and whatever could potentially be gained would come with way too many strings attached which wouldn't be worth it in the end, especially for a country like India that values strategic & nuclear autonomy.

All the same, strategic (and economic/supply-chain related) containment of China and rebalancing of power is not possible without India & Japan being in the mix. There's a reason why the US' strategic relationship with India (which was bitter as late as Clinton's first term) has been on a constant uptrend over the last 4 US presidents, despite their wildly contrarian ways & methods of approaching foreign policy.

e.g.

Bush Jr - Nuclear deal despite being non-NPT country
Obama - Major Defense Partner ('ally' status in defense deals despite not actually being one on paper) & LEMOA signed
Trump - COMCASA & BECA signed, ignored Kashmir annexation, blocked NASA's bid to sanction India after 2019 ASAT test
Biden - QUAD promoted to heads of state-level, no CAATSA despite S400 deal (so far at least)

Hard to explain all this otherwise.

But what cannot be forgotten is that India is no UK - it's strategic goals will not align with the US 100% of the time. So why is India with US in QUAD? Because right now, with regard to China, the interests do align. And like I said that's what QUAD is about - containment of China.

So while India is no UK, it could be a 'France' - which despite being NATO has nuclear autonomy. Or rather 'France+', as it goes beyond that.

@Nilgiri @Milspec @Cabatli_53
 

Nilgiri

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AUKUS is primarily a technology-sharing group with the single-point agenda of bringing the nascent Australian military capabilities up to par, in order to ensure Australia (or any future government of theirs) doesn't buckle under Chinese pressure, which was actually a distinct possibility especially under Kevin Rudd and even into earlier years of Morrison.

As of trusted allies, Australia was always part of US intel-sharing (Five-Eyes) and mutual defence agreements (ANZUS), nothing new there.

I don't see why people are drawing a line between AUKUS & QUAD - the former like I said is about tech-sharing with single-point agenda of bringing Aus up to par. The latter is about containment of China, a strategic aim that goes above & beyond, and is in the interest of all QUAD countries (and many others in the region, QUAD should actually be expanded).



If by this you mean including India & Japan in AUKUS-type tech-sharing, it won't happen for many reasons. Must say the latter is more likely to be included considering the mutual defence agreements & nuclear umbrella-sharing but Japan may not want/need SSNs the same way AU does.

For example, the diesel sub that AU was planning to get did not even have AIP. But the Japanese domestic industry is way more advanced & their boats include mature fuel-cell AIP along with advanced Li-ion Batteries (LIBs) to extend endurance & power, not to mention the extensive industry surrounding the same - plus their operating distances & proximity to China means their need for a possible SSN is nowhere as critical as Australia's (where range & endurance is of utmost importance):

View attachment 31317

But India would definitely not be included (or even want to be included) for various reasons. Some are:

a) Existing independent nuclear deterrence capability, and mature & continuing program for delivery systems
b) Existing independent nuclear-powered submarine programs & required shore-based infrastructure (underground pens, ELF/VLF, refueling/reactor training etc)
c) Even though several intel-sharing & logistics-support agreements exist (like BECA & COMCASA), there's no mutual defense agreement

To put it in short, there's not much for India to gain even IF a similar agreement as AUKUS were put in place - and whatever could potentially be gained would come with way too many strings attached which wouldn't be worth it in the end, especially for a country like India that values strategic & nuclear autonomy.

All the same, strategic (and economic/supply-chain related) containment of China and rebalancing of power is not possible without India & Japan being in the mix. There's a reason why the US' strategic relationship with India (which was bitter as late as Clinton's first term) has been on a constant uptrend over the last 4 US presidents, despite their wildly contrarian ways & methods of approaching foreign policy.

e.g.

Bush Jr - Nuclear deal despite being non-NPT country
Obama - Major Defense Partner ('ally' status in defense deals despite not actually being one on paper) & LEMOA signed
Trump - COMCASA & BECA signed, ignored Kashmir annexation, blocked NASA's bid to sanction India after 2019 ASAT test
Biden - QUAD promoted to heads of state-level, no CAATSA despite S400 deal (so far at least)

Hard to explain all this otherwise.

But what cannot be forgotten is that India is no UK - it's strategic goals will not align with the US 100% of the time. So why is India with US in QUAD? Because right now, with regard to China, the interests do align. And like I said that's what QUAD is about - containment of China.

So while India is no UK, it could be a 'France' - which despite being NATO has nuclear autonomy. Or rather 'France+', as it goes beyond that.

@Nilgiri @Milspec @Cabatli_53

Yes you will notice the key population % ratios (w.r.t US)

Australia is maybe ~ 10% (Canada is around here too)

UK is around 20%

Japan is around 40% level (this starts becoming significant portion - and hence what it can bring to table starts to really increase compared to the others lower than it)

But India is only one that eclipses several times over....the ratio is like 400 - 500% for this century.

So the very scope of the relationship (and thus immense number of contours) is heavily changed by this alone.

That word "century" is also very important as these things are done with the longer term picture in mind.

A country like India (given its size) simply cannot be reliant on certain things from the outside....both in its interests and also in others interests (if looked at rationally).
 

Nilgiri

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Or rather 'France+', as it goes beyond that.

In fact France would do well to strengthen its relationship with India even more now.

There is still huge scope on offer, and it wont be hijacked so easily like with smaller % "anglo saxon" pop countries w.r.t US

@Vergennes
 

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