Canada Navy Canada SSK program

[Nilgiri]

Please do Nilgirl. Thanks!

Done...and stickied given its importance.

 

[Ted Barnes]

Submarines are always going to be a contentious issue in Canada especially the bad press the Victoria class has received over the years. Canada in its procurement will ultimately in my opinion go with a blue water design able to transit the Atlantic and Arctic in a traditional cold war role, additionally they will have to be able to transit the Pacific. Any design will have to take into account both warm and cold weather operations, currently the Victoria class built for the cold North Atlantic and Nordic regions have had difficulty operating in temperate waters. This is all common sense based on current doctrine and conuse for submarines in Canada and previous use of this type of platform by Canada.

Any submarine we buy will more than likely not have AIP but will leverage lithium battery technology. The shortfin Barracuda that AUS is building has no plans for AIP. AIP is normally for coastal submarines, and the technology which reaches back into the 30's haven't advanced enough to in endurance for the needs of Canada. AIP only allows a submarine to go at slow speeds, useful for coastal submarines but not so much for open ocean transits. Additionally any new submarine for Canada that is expected to operate in the Arctic under the ice will need the power to surface at will in case of emergency, conventual submarines and even AIP cannot do that. We know the Arctic is melting and these submarines will not be built or be operational in the next decade at least. Under the ice operations will become less and less important and that is going to work in our advantage as this opens newer designs to the RCN on the drawing board and given the bad press the Victoria class has received any procurement will be done in a slow and deliberate manner.

We never had more than four submarines ever in the history of the Canadian submarine service, the RCN in my opinion will more than likely order a max of six and those will be hard enough to crew given the RCN is short 1200 sailors on the east coast alone. Six will allow one to be at high readiness on each coast, one on each coast at lower readiness, and one on each coast in maintenance. More than likely the design will take into account a lower crew size and greater automation. The senate defence committee has recommended twelve and not saying that twelve is not a better number but realistically not achievable with the resources we currently have available. Keep in mind the senate defence committee is usually not listened to and recommend all kinds of unrealistic things.

 

[Nilgiri]

Submarines are always going to be a contentious issue in Canada especially the bad press the Victoria class has received over the years. Canada in its procurement will ultimately in my opinion go with a blue water design able to transit the Atlantic and Arctic in a traditional cold war role, additionally they will have to be able to transit the Pacific. Any design will have to take into account both warm and cold weather operations, currently the Victoria class built for the cold North Atlantic and Nordic regions have had difficulty operating in temperate waters. This is all common sense based on current doctrine and conuse for submarines in Canada and previous use of this type of platform by Canada.

Any submarine we buy will more than likely not have AIP but will leverage lithium battery technology. The shortfin Barracuda that AUS is building has no plans for AIP. AIP is normally for coastal submarines, and the technology which reaches back into the 30's haven't advanced enough to in endurance for the needs of Canada. AIP only allows a submarine to go at slow speeds, useful for coastal submarines but not so much for open ocean transits. Additionally any new submarine for Canada that is expected to operate in the Arctic under the ice will need the power to surface at will in case of emergency, conventual submarines and even AIP cannot do that. We know the Arctic is melting and these submarines will not be built or be operational in the next decade at least. Under the ice operations will become less and less important and that is going to work in our advantage as this opens newer designs to the RCN on the drawing board and given the bad press the Victoria class has received any procurement will be done in a slow and deliberate manner.

We never had more than four submarines ever in the history of the Canadian submarine service, the RCN in my opinion will more than likely order a max of six and those will be hard enough to crew given the RCN is short 1200 sailors on the east coast alone. Six will allow one to be at high readiness on each coast, one on each coast at lower readiness, and one on each coast in maintenance. More than likely the design will take into account a lower crew size and greater automation. The senate defence committee has recommended twelve and not saying that twelve is not a better number but realistically not achievable with the resources we currently have available. Keep in mind the senate defence committee is usually not listened to and recommend all kinds of unrealistic things.

Lithium ion would be even better than AIP in my estimation.

You are spot on about your last two lines. It is why for most part I observe. I have grown weary of expecting pragmatic defence policy sustained in parliament and bureaucracy.

 

[Ted Barnes]

Lithium ion would be even better than AIP in my estimation.

You are spot on about your last two lines. It is why for most part I observe. I have grown weary of expecting pragmatic defence policy sustained in parliament and bureaucracy.

Agree, even motor technology is improving to where the storage capacity of a lithium ion powered submarine will be even more efficient.

 

[Nilgiri]

@DAVEBLOGGINS et al.

Royal Canadian Navy pitches $60 billion submarine purchase, say defence and industry sources

But that price tag could climb to $100B as military equipment procurement programs are rarely on budget, say industry sources

www.standard-freeholder.com

The Royal Canadian Navy is making a pitch for the purchase of up to 12 new submarines at a cost of $60 billion, say National Defence and industry sources.


The navy is pushing for the acquisition of the submarines to be included in the Liberal government’s Defence Policy Update. Last month at a defence conference in Ottawa, Chief of the Defence Staff Gen. Wayne Eyre acknowledged he was advocating on behalf of the navy for submarines.



The navy has a team examining the replacement of the current Victoria-class submarine fleet and there have been initial discussions with industry officials, sources said.



Asked about the navy’s new submarine proposal, National Defence spokesman Dan Le Bouthillier stated that, “the Defence Policy Update is currently underway, with public consultations ongoing, and we look forward to releasing the DPU in due course.”



The navy has created the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project, or CPSP. “The CPSP is examining all conventional options available, gathering information, and conducting an analysis of potential submarines capable of meeting the Royal Canadian Navy’s requirements,” said Le Bouthillier.


But he noted the work on the submarine project is part of the navy’s routine analysis. “The CPSP does not commit the government to any specific course of action, but is intended to facilitate an informed decision when required,” Le Bouthillier added.



Canadian defence industry sources say the cost of the new subs would be around $60 billion but that price tag could climb to $100 billion as military equipment procurement programs are rarely on budget. Industry representatives pointed to the program to build 15 new surface combatants for the Canadian navy. The cost for those vessels has climbed from $25 billion to more than $80 billion.



In 2016, Australia had a project to build 12 conventional-powered submarines at a cost of more than $50 billion. But it withdrew from that and instead entered into a new plan to buy at least eight nuclear submarines with help from the U.S. and Britain. The Australian government has estimated that program will cost between $260 billion to $360 billion over 30 years.


There are hurdles to the Royal Canadian Navy’s proposal to buy new subs. In the past, the navy has had trouble training enough submariners to crew its current fleet of four boats, let alone 12.



The other hurdle is whether the federal government wants to fund such a massive naval project at a time when Canadians are more concerned about the lack of health care system and affordable housing, inflation and increasing costs for basic necessities such as food.



The four Victoria-class boats, originally known as the Upholder-class, were purchased second-hand from the Royal Navy and delivered between 2000 and 2004.



But the latest data provided to this newspaper by National Defence shows the submarines have had limited use since 2017. HMCS Corner Brook has not been to sea over the last five years.


From 2017 to April 2023, the Canadian Forces has spent $1.9 billion on submarine maintenance with three boats totaling 529 days at sea. In 2019 and 2020, no submarine operations were conducted at all by Canada, according to National Defence.



Victoria-class submarines were recognized in the Liberal government’s 2017 defence policy, Strong Secure Engaged, as key contributors to national defence. The Liberal government has committed to modernizing the subs so they can continue to operate until the mid-2030s.



While the Canadian Armed Forces has suggested it could take 15 years for a new submarine to be eventually acquired, National Defence documents obtained by this newspaper through the Access to Information law warn the process could take much longer. “The procurement timeline from project establishment to contract award is highly specific to the project but staff analysis has shown that the procurement of a new submarine class will take a minimum of 15 years total from project establishment to first delivery and could exceed 25 years depending on the adopted procurement strategy,” National Defence and military officials told then-Defence Minister Harjit Sajjan in a Jan. 6, 2021 briefing note.


The Canadian Patrol Submarine Project office would start out small but will be incrementally augmented with “hand-selected submariners, engineers and procurement professionals,” Sajjan was told. The staff will follow the normal project activities leading to departmental government boards, an independent review panel for defence acquisition, and eventual approval by Treasury Board for the project to proceed.



In its 2021 briefing to the then-defence minister, the Royal Canadian Navy noted submarines are a key element of the Canadian Armed Forces continental defence and are critical to the detection of foreign submarines. “Given that submarine technology is being exploited by non-state actors (e.g. Caribbean drug cartels) the significance of sub-surface MDA (maritime domain awareness)/maritime undersea surveillance is an important capability to retain and grow pursuant to recent departmental discussions,” Sajjan was told.


The current Defence Minister Anita Anand also received a similar briefing on the Canadian Patrol Submarine Project.


The Conservative party has supported an immediate replacement program for the Victoria-class submarines.

 

[Ted Barnes]

So it appears things are moving towards the selection of a design for the next class of submarines for the RCN which will succeed the Victoria Class. Later this month members of the submarine replacement project will travel to Japan and Korea to look at the Korean KSS-III and presumably the Sōryū-class. Both classes leverage the lithium battery technology and AIP. While not powerful enough to surface or operate exclusively under the ice would give the RCN certainly ice edge capability. Any variants would have to be heavily modified to operate combat systems the RCN would want to acquire and modify the boats to operate in the Arctic. This is good news however realistically any new class is over 15 years away.

 

[DAVEBLOGGINS]

So it appears things are moving towards the selection of a design for the next class of submarines for the RCN which will succeed the Victoria Class. Later this month members of the submarine replacement project will travel to Japan and Korea to look at the Korean KSS-III and presumably the Sōryū-class. Both classes leverage the lithium battery technology and AIP. While not powerful enough to surface or operate exclusively under the ice would give the RCN certainly ice edge capability. Any variants would have to be heavily modified to operate combat systems the RCN would want to acquire and modify the boats to operate in the Arctic. This is good news however realistically any new class is over 15 years away. View attachment 57166

Good to see the RCN is thinking in the right way Ted. The Submarine Replacement Project team should visit all sub contenders IOT give the government all potential candidates a "fair shake". The ROC KSS-III is a good option along with the Japanese Sōryū-class. I would however want the team to also think of the Japanese Taipei class LIB boats or it's follow-on class from Japan as another very good options. Let's also not forget the German Type 212 CD E class or the Type 216 class as well. There are also other classes like the Spanish S 80, the Swedish repacement subs or what the Dutch are going to buy as well.