China rises from Russian customer to competitor in arms industry

[xizhimen]

China rises from Russian customer to competitor in arms industry
Beijing's ability to package guns and economic deals threatens Moscow's revenue

Chinese J-20 stealth fighter jets perform at an airshow in 2018: The military is reportedly replacing the jets' Russian engines with domestic ones. © AP

DIMITRI SIMES JR. Contributing writerJanuary 22, 2021 13:51 JST

MOSCOW -- In a flashy recruitment video released by China's People's Liberation Army Air Force last week, four J-20 fighters are seen soaring through stormy skies, deftly maneuvering between lightning strikes.

Lost in the dramatic digital imagery was an important detail: For the first time ever, the Chinese jets will be powered by domestically made engines instead of Russian ones.

Beijing's decision to replace the J-20's engines, noted by the state mouthpiece Global Times, is just the latest sign that China is rapidly closing the military gap with its northern neighbor. For decades, China leaned heavily on Russian weapons to modernize its armed forces. But that has begun to change, as China builds its own powerful defense industry and even starts to challenge Moscow in the global arms market.

By some measures it may already have the advantage -- a shift likely to change the dynamics of the countries' at times awkward but increasingly close relationship.

Data published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in December puts China ahead of Russia as the world's No. 2 arms producer in the period from 2015 to 2019. The U.S. remained No. 1.

The leading arms research center found that four of the top 25 arms manufacturers in 2019 were Chinese. This quartet, three of which were in the top 10, accounted for 16% of overall arms sales and earned $56.7 billion. By contrast, only two Russian companies cracked the top 25, making up just under 4% of the total and generating $13.9 billion.

Some Russian defense industry officials and analysts dispute SIPRI's findings, arguing that it is impossible to accurately calculate China's arms sales volume since it keeps information about its military-industrial complex under wraps. They also protest SIPRI's decision exclusion of Russian state technology conglomerate Rostec, one of the country's largest arms exporters, in its top 25 ranking.

Even so, few in Moscow deny that China is gaining ground fast, not just in terms of the quantity of arms produced but also quality.

Vadim Kozyulin, director of the Asian Security Project at the PIR Center, a Moscow-based think tank, told Nikkei Asia that China has already surpassed Russia in developing unmanned aerial vehicles, certain kinds of warships and possibly even hypersonic missiles -- an area of great pride for the Kremlin in recent years.

"We see that China is producing new weapon models very rapidly, releasing a new generation every 10 years like the Soviet Union once did," he said. "Under these circumstances, it is difficult for Russia to compete because we have a smaller budget which is only decreasing."

For much of the post-Cold War period, Russia has been China's primary arms supplier.

The two neighbors began cooperating in the early 1990s, when China had just launched an ambitious campaign to upgrade the PLA's outdated weaponry. Beijing initially looked to the West as a potential source of advanced military technology, but those hopes were dashed after the U.S. and Europe imposed an arms embargo against China in response to the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.

China soon found a replacement in Russia. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 devastated Russian arms manufacturers. Old sources of revenue such as domestic military spending and lucrative contracts with foreign client states quickly dried up. China's emergence as a prospective customer provided Russia's ailing defense industry with a much-needed economic lifeline.


From 1992 to 2007, China imported 84% of its weapons from Russia, with the PLA procuring combat aircraft, air defense systems, destroyers and submarines.

Much to Moscow's chagrin, Beijing also reverse-engineered many of its Russian purchases.

Some of China's newest arms, most notably J-11 fighter jets and HQ-9 surface-to-air-missiles, appear to be nearly identical to earlier variants bought from Russia. In December 2019, Rostec publicly accused China of illegally copying a broad spectrum of Russian military technologies over the course of nearly two decades.

Despite these concerns, arms trade between the two countries continued to flourish. From 2014 to 2015, Moscow agreed to provide Beijing with six battalions of the S-400 air defense system and 24 Su-35 fighter jets, some of Russia's most advanced weapons.

Now, it is not clear how much longer China will need Russian arms. In the span of just 20 years, China's weapons sector has gone from fledgling industry to global heavyweight. Not only can Beijing meet most of its own military needs, but it also exports to customers ranging from Pakistan to Serbia.

China's rise as an arms producer has been bolstered by a rapid increase in military spending. According to SIPRI, China's defense budget expanded by 85% over the past decade, reaching $261 billion in 2019. Although Russia did raise its military spending under President Vladimir Putin in the past, the increase was far more modest, and defense expenditures have been gradually declining since 2015.

A visitor checks out the CM-401 anti-ship missile system at the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, also known as the Zhuhai Airshow, in 2018. © Reuters
No less significant is Beijing's emergence as a technological power. China is home to 1.87 million scientific researchers, the most in the world, and a growing number of high tech giants such as Huawei, Tencent and ZTE.

Despite recent efforts by the Kremlin to stimulate the domestic tech sector, Russia has not enjoyed similar success. Experts warn that Russia is falling behind in key emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, and that unless that changes, its defense industry will have a difficult time keeping up with China and the U.S.

"Russia doesn't have giants like Microsoft or Huawei that produce technologies that can be used for civilian and military purposes," said Kozyulin of the PIR Center. "Instead, the government itself has to create everything from scratch, which is very costly."

As China has become more advanced, Russia has begun exploring opportunities to codevelop weaponry with Beijing. In 2016, the two countries partnered to develop and produce over 200 next-generation heavy lift helicopters for the PLA by 2040. Another major collaboration was announced in August, when Russia arms officials revealed that Moscow and Beijing had begun working on developing a new non-nuclear submarine.

"It's pretty clear that Russia is transitioning to a technology transferring and subcontracting role, since although China can now make many of its own systems, it still lacks Russia's tremendous amount of engineering experience and ability to develop a lot of key components," said Michael Kofman, director of the Russia program at the Washington-based CNA military research center.

But other experts are skeptical that such an arrangement is sustainable in the long run. Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher at the SIPRI Arms and Military Expenditure Programme, argued that Moscow could be falling too far behind to keep Beijing interested.

"I expect the Russians to be completely out of the picture for the Chinese as a provider of technology within five to 10 years," he said. "The Russians will be looking to see if they can somehow get their hands on Chinese technology because the Russians are falling behind, and in some cases they're not getting anywhere anymore."

Wezeman added that in the long run, it is even possible that China will push Russian arms manufacturers out of their traditional markets in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. He warned that China is well-positioned to outcompete Russia in these markets, since unlike Moscow, Beijing can bundle arms deals together with lucrative economic agreements.

"There is no real reason for those countries to go with the Russians if they can get something similar or better from the Chinese," Wezeman said. "In a way the Chinese probably have more to offer, not only in terms of the weapons, but also all kinds of other arrangements."

China rises from Russian customer to competitor in arms industry

Beijing's ability to package guns and economic deals threatens Moscow's revenue

asia.nikkei.com

 

[Ardabas34]

If only they manage to advance to a point of making 5th-6th gen fighting jets and continue to exist as a withstanding alternative, this will greatly benefit countries like Turkey which have to bare to bad breath of US.

On top of this they will initially offer very profitable deals too just to take their place in the global market.
Remember when US was refusing to give tech of patriots Chinese were willing for their AA systems.

Same thing how Chinese Epic games give away tons of free games just to take some of the pie from steam. Same logic will hopefully process.

 

[ekemenirtu]

China rises from Russian customer to competitor in arms industry
Beijing's ability to package guns and economic deals threatens Moscow's revenue

Chinese J-20 stealth fighter jets perform at an airshow in 2018: The military is reportedly replacing the jets' Russian engines with domestic ones. © AP

DIMITRI SIMES JR. Contributing writerJanuary 22, 2021 13:51 JST

MOSCOW -- In a flashy recruitment video released by China's People's Liberation Army Air Force last week, four J-20 fighters are seen soaring through stormy skies, deftly maneuvering between lightning strikes.

Lost in the dramatic digital imagery was an important detail: For the first time ever, the Chinese jets will be powered by domestically made engines instead of Russian ones.

Beijing's decision to replace the J-20's engines, noted by the state mouthpiece Global Times, is just the latest sign that China is rapidly closing the military gap with its northern neighbor. For decades, China leaned heavily on Russian weapons to modernize its armed forces. But that has begun to change, as China builds its own powerful defense industry and even starts to challenge Moscow in the global arms market.

By some measures it may already have the advantage -- a shift likely to change the dynamics of the countries' at times awkward but increasingly close relationship.

Data published by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute in December puts China ahead of Russia as the world's No. 2 arms producer in the period from 2015 to 2019. The U.S. remained No. 1.

The leading arms research center found that four of the top 25 arms manufacturers in 2019 were Chinese. This quartet, three of which were in the top 10, accounted for 16% of overall arms sales and earned $56.7 billion. By contrast, only two Russian companies cracked the top 25, making up just under 4% of the total and generating $13.9 billion.

Some Russian defense industry officials and analysts dispute SIPRI's findings, arguing that it is impossible to accurately calculate China's arms sales volume since it keeps information about its military-industrial complex under wraps. They also protest SIPRI's decision exclusion of Russian state technology conglomerate Rostec, one of the country's largest arms exporters, in its top 25 ranking.

Even so, few in Moscow deny that China is gaining ground fast, not just in terms of the quantity of arms produced but also quality.

Vadim Kozyulin, director of the Asian Security Project at the PIR Center, a Moscow-based think tank, told Nikkei Asia that China has already surpassed Russia in developing unmanned aerial vehicles, certain kinds of warships and possibly even hypersonic missiles -- an area of great pride for the Kremlin in recent years.

"We see that China is producing new weapon models very rapidly, releasing a new generation every 10 years like the Soviet Union once did," he said. "Under these circumstances, it is difficult for Russia to compete because we have a smaller budget which is only decreasing."

For much of the post-Cold War period, Russia has been China's primary arms supplier.

The two neighbors began cooperating in the early 1990s, when China had just launched an ambitious campaign to upgrade the PLA's outdated weaponry. Beijing initially looked to the West as a potential source of advanced military technology, but those hopes were dashed after the U.S. and Europe imposed an arms embargo against China in response to the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown.

China soon found a replacement in Russia. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 devastated Russian arms manufacturers. Old sources of revenue such as domestic military spending and lucrative contracts with foreign client states quickly dried up. China's emergence as a prospective customer provided Russia's ailing defense industry with a much-needed economic lifeline.


From 1992 to 2007, China imported 84% of its weapons from Russia, with the PLA procuring combat aircraft, air defense systems, destroyers and submarines.

Much to Moscow's chagrin, Beijing also reverse-engineered many of its Russian purchases.

Some of China's newest arms, most notably J-11 fighter jets and HQ-9 surface-to-air-missiles, appear to be nearly identical to earlier variants bought from Russia. In December 2019, Rostec publicly accused China of illegally copying a broad spectrum of Russian military technologies over the course of nearly two decades.

Despite these concerns, arms trade between the two countries continued to flourish. From 2014 to 2015, Moscow agreed to provide Beijing with six battalions of the S-400 air defense system and 24 Su-35 fighter jets, some of Russia's most advanced weapons.

Now, it is not clear how much longer China will need Russian arms. In the span of just 20 years, China's weapons sector has gone from fledgling industry to global heavyweight. Not only can Beijing meet most of its own military needs, but it also exports to customers ranging from Pakistan to Serbia.

China's rise as an arms producer has been bolstered by a rapid increase in military spending. According to SIPRI, China's defense budget expanded by 85% over the past decade, reaching $261 billion in 2019. Although Russia did raise its military spending under President Vladimir Putin in the past, the increase was far more modest, and defense expenditures have been gradually declining since 2015.

A visitor checks out the CM-401 anti-ship missile system at the China International Aviation and Aerospace Exhibition, also known as the Zhuhai Airshow, in 2018. © Reuters
No less significant is Beijing's emergence as a technological power. China is home to 1.87 million scientific researchers, the most in the world, and a growing number of high tech giants such as Huawei, Tencent and ZTE.

Despite recent efforts by the Kremlin to stimulate the domestic tech sector, Russia has not enjoyed similar success. Experts warn that Russia is falling behind in key emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, and that unless that changes, its defense industry will have a difficult time keeping up with China and the U.S.

"Russia doesn't have giants like Microsoft or Huawei that produce technologies that can be used for civilian and military purposes," said Kozyulin of the PIR Center. "Instead, the government itself has to create everything from scratch, which is very costly."

As China has become more advanced, Russia has begun exploring opportunities to codevelop weaponry with Beijing. In 2016, the two countries partnered to develop and produce over 200 next-generation heavy lift helicopters for the PLA by 2040. Another major collaboration was announced in August, when Russia arms officials revealed that Moscow and Beijing had begun working on developing a new non-nuclear submarine.

"It's pretty clear that Russia is transitioning to a technology transferring and subcontracting role, since although China can now make many of its own systems, it still lacks Russia's tremendous amount of engineering experience and ability to develop a lot of key components," said Michael Kofman, director of the Russia program at the Washington-based CNA military research center.

But other experts are skeptical that such an arrangement is sustainable in the long run. Siemon Wezeman, a senior researcher at the SIPRI Arms and Military Expenditure Programme, argued that Moscow could be falling too far behind to keep Beijing interested.

"I expect the Russians to be completely out of the picture for the Chinese as a provider of technology within five to 10 years," he said. "The Russians will be looking to see if they can somehow get their hands on Chinese technology because the Russians are falling behind, and in some cases they're not getting anywhere anymore."

Wezeman added that in the long run, it is even possible that China will push Russian arms manufacturers out of their traditional markets in Africa, the Middle East and Latin America. He warned that China is well-positioned to outcompete Russia in these markets, since unlike Moscow, Beijing can bundle arms deals together with lucrative economic agreements.

"There is no real reason for those countries to go with the Russians if they can get something similar or better from the Chinese," Wezeman said. "In a way the Chinese probably have more to offer, not only in terms of the weapons, but also all kinds of other arrangements."

China rises from Russian customer to competitor in arms industry

Beijing's ability to package guns and economic deals threatens Moscow's revenue

asia.nikkei.com

Somewhat sensationalist article, I am afraid.

In the span of just 20 years, China's weapons sector has gone from fledgling industry to global heavyweight. Not only can Beijing meet most of its own military needs, but it also exports to customers ranging from Pakistan to Serbia.

Arms trade is often influenced by geopolitical factors and for understandable reasons.

The USA is unlikely to sell Minuteman ICBMs, Ohio class submarines, Nimitz class aircraft carriers or F-22 fighter jets in ample numbers to its adversaries or rivals such as Russia, China, Iran, North Korea or even Cuba, Syria, Myanmar and such.

Likewise, it is unlikely that the Russian Federation, People's Republic of China, Islamic Republic of Iran, Islamic Republic of Pakistan or Democratic People's Republic of Korea would part ways with their nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, higher end surface to air missile system or nuclear powered submarine arsenals (wherever applicable) to Zionist regime/"Israel", the UK, the USA, France, Canada, South Korea, Japan or Taiwan - even if ample amount of cash were to be offered.

Geopolitical factors play a crucial role in arms trade between countries.

Pakistan and China enjoy very close strategic ties. Excluding Pakistan, and other poor countries with weak armed forces such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, Tanzania, Sudan and such, which countries are the largest buyers of Chinese weaponry?

From what I have been able to gather, even isolated, sanctioned and "pariah" countries, if you may use such loaded terms, such as Iran, North Korea, Syria or Cuba have not purchased ample Chinese weaponry. Even when the Iranian regime earned in excess of a trillion dollars in oil and gas revenues over several years more than a decade ago, they did not purchase a great deal of Chinese weaponry.

Moreover, despite plenty of positive articles on PRC's arms industry being released from time to time, we have seen the PRC purchase Su-35 multirole fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems from the Russian Federation in recent years.

The perpetual bottleneck of aircraft engines for Chinese fighter jets continues to remain a stumbling block. Many other Chinese origin weapons remain subpar and often not proven in combat.

As an example, in the most recent tussle between Pakistan and India in 2019, it has been reported that it is American-origin F-16 fighter jets that Pakistan Air Force used for shooting down a single Mig-21 fighter jet of the IAF.

The much vaunted JF-17 fighter jets could not, or did not, attain any kills against their adversaries from the IAF.

No other country with Chinese fighter aircraft has fought an air battle in recent times either.

In that sense, Chinese weapons remain unproven and inferior to highly sought after Western origin weapons or even Russian weaponry.

 

[xizhimen]

Somewhat sensationalist article, I am afraid.



Arms trade is often influenced by geopolitical factors and for understandable reasons.

The USA is unlikely to sell Minuteman ICBMs, Ohio class submarines, Nimitz class aircraft carriers or F-22 fighter jets in ample numbers to its adversaries or rivals such as Russia, China, Iran, North Korea or even Cuba, Syria, Myanmar and such.

Likewise, it is unlikely that the Russian Federation, People's Republic of China, Islamic Republic of Iran, Islamic Republic of Pakistan or Democratic People's Republic of Korea would part ways with their nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, higher end surface to air missile system or nuclear powered submarine arsenals (wherever applicable) to Zionist regime/"Israel", the UK, the USA, France, Canada, South Korea, Japan or Taiwan - even if ample amount of cash were to be offered.

Geopolitical factors play a crucial role in arms trade between countries.

Pakistan and China enjoy very close strategic ties. Excluding Pakistan, and other poor countries with weak armed forces such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, Tanzania, Sudan and such, which countries are the largest buyers of Chinese weaponry?

From what I have been able to gather, even isolated, sanctioned and "pariah" countries, if you may use such loaded terms, such as Iran, North Korea, Syria or Cuba have not purchased ample Chinese weaponry. Even when the Iranian regime earned in excess of a trillion dollars in oil and gas revenues over several years more than a decade ago, they did not purchase a great deal of Chinese weaponry.

Moreover, despite plenty of positive articles on PRC's arms industry being released from time to time, we have seen the PRC purchase Su-35 multirole fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems from the Russian Federation in recent years.

The perpetual bottleneck of aircraft engines for Chinese fighter jets continues to remain a stumbling block. Many other Chinese origin weapons remain subpar and often not proven in combat.

As an example, in the most recent tussle between Pakistan and India in 2019, it has been reported that it is American-origin F-16 fighter jets that Pakistan Air Force used for shooting down a single Mig-21 fighter jet of the IAF.

The much vaunted JF-17 fighter jets could not, or did not, attain any kills against their adversaries from the IAF.

No other country with Chinese fighter aircraft has fought an air battle in recent times either.

In that sense, Chinese weapons remain unproven and inferior to highly sought after Western origin weapons or even Russian weaponry.

China is a new comer to the game, and she's already making gains year on year, nothing happens overnight, 10 years ago Chinese cellphones and bullet trains were unheard of even in China, look at the situation now.

 

[Ryder]

Somewhat sensationalist article, I am afraid.



Arms trade is often influenced by geopolitical factors and for understandable reasons.

The USA is unlikely to sell Minuteman ICBMs, Ohio class submarines, Nimitz class aircraft carriers or F-22 fighter jets in ample numbers to its adversaries or rivals such as Russia, China, Iran, North Korea or even Cuba, Syria, Myanmar and such.

Likewise, it is unlikely that the Russian Federation, People's Republic of China, Islamic Republic of Iran, Islamic Republic of Pakistan or Democratic People's Republic of Korea would part ways with their nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, higher end surface to air missile system or nuclear powered submarine arsenals (wherever applicable) to Zionist regime/"Israel", the UK, the USA, France, Canada, South Korea, Japan or Taiwan - even if ample amount of cash were to be offered.

Geopolitical factors play a crucial role in arms trade between countries.

Pakistan and China enjoy very close strategic ties. Excluding Pakistan, and other poor countries with weak armed forces such as Bangladesh, Myanmar, Tanzania, Sudan and such, which countries are the largest buyers of Chinese weaponry?

From what I have been able to gather, even isolated, sanctioned and "pariah" countries, if you may use such loaded terms, such as Iran, North Korea, Syria or Cuba have not purchased ample Chinese weaponry. Even when the Iranian regime earned in excess of a trillion dollars in oil and gas revenues over several years more than a decade ago, they did not purchase a great deal of Chinese weaponry.

Moreover, despite plenty of positive articles on PRC's arms industry being released from time to time, we have seen the PRC purchase Su-35 multirole fighter jets and S-400 air defense systems from the Russian Federation in recent years.

The perpetual bottleneck of aircraft engines for Chinese fighter jets continues to remain a stumbling block. Many other Chinese origin weapons remain subpar and often not proven in combat.

As an example, in the most recent tussle between Pakistan and India in 2019, it has been reported that it is American-origin F-16 fighter jets that Pakistan Air Force used for shooting down a single Mig-21 fighter jet of the IAF.

The much vaunted JF-17 fighter jets could not, or did not, attain any kills against their adversaries from the IAF.

No other country with Chinese fighter aircraft has fought an air battle in recent times either.

In that sense, Chinese weapons remain unproven and inferior to highly sought after Western origin weapons or even Russian weaponry.

Chinese also purchased French helicopter engines used in Civilian helicopters to power their military helicopters.

Will what the future holds the Chinese are not just copying but also developing their own stuff.

 

[xizhimen]

Chinese also purchased French helicopter engines used in Civilian helicopters to power their military helicopters.

Will what the future holds the Chinese are not just copying but also developing their own stuff.

Chinese engines are fast replacing foreign engines across board in China, and every new innovation is based on something old before, you can't simply copy and paste to send spaceships to the moon. China now has the world fastest train traveling at 620KM/HOUR, you can't claim China copied it just because the first bullet train in the world was not made in China, or Chinese Beiduo Global positioning system is just a copy cause the world had GPS before it. and China just started less than a decade, but already made a lot of progress in many scientific and technological fields, the west is already feeling the heat.

People can see how much difference between Chinese communism and USSR's communism, if you believe China just copied and pasted USSR's system, you are dead wrong.

 

[Ryder]

Chinese engines are fast replacing foreign engines across board in China, and every new innovation is based on something old before, you can't simply copy and paste to send spaceships to the moon. China now has the world fastest train traveling at 620KM/HOUR, you can't claim China copied it just because the first bullet train in the world was not made in China, or Chinese Beiduo Global positioning system is just a copy cause the world had GPS before it. and China just started less than a decade, but already made a lot of progress in many scientific and technological fields, the west is already feeling the heat.

People can see how much difference between Chinese communism and USSR's communism, if you believe China just copied and pasted USSR's system, you are dead wrong.

I know its pretty common for China to copy which is a stereotype.

China did benefit from copying while also making its own in the process.

Im giving them the benefit of the doubt. Why bother reiventing the wheel when the tech is there.

 

[xizhimen]

Im giving them the benefit of the doubt. Why bother reiventing the wheel when the tech is there.

Do you mean just because US had gone to the moon before (supposedly), no countries countries should bother to go up there again?

 

[Ryder]

Do you mean just because US had gone to the moon before (supposedly), no countries countries should bother to go up there again?

Usa went to the moon thanks to German scientists and Engineers like werner von braun.

The moon i think countries are doing their best to go back to the moon to see if its viable to be a base.

Usa, china and russia are scrambling to be the first to have a moon base. Hence why going back to the moon is coming back to relevance once again.

 

[xizhimen]

Usa went to the moon thanks to German scientists and Engineers like werner von braun.

US copied and stole a lot of German stuff.