Breaking News China-US War?

[Afif]

I think the title "cold waters" is clear already hehe.

Yes I do once tried CMANO, but I have yet to master the game.

Sorry I was in a hurry, thought it was some sort of article.

Interesting game though, not sure how realistic it is. I have to dig into it more later.

 

[Afif]

Understanding the Chinese Navy

Captain Jim Fanell, U.S. Navy (Ret.)—noted expert on the Chinese Navy, former Director of Intelligence for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, and frequent Proceedings c...

www.youtube.com

Very interesting and well articulated presentation. ( Worth your time )

I was skeptical about loaded headlines like 'US predict war with China in 2025'

But now, in the past few month after listening to similar observations concluded in multiple conversations by credible experts from military background I feel somewhat unsure.

We all saw the General Michael Minihan' s memo, which was kind of shocking.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.airandspaceforces.com/read-full-memo-from-amc-gen-mike-minihan/&ved=2ahUKEwjn5fjJ1c_9AhURRmwGHQ5CArEQFnoECAgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw069jzo20WdA7IwzPOVC-AD

@Gary @Nilgiri what do you guys make of these?

 

[Lordimperator]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1633896095515328534

 

[Gary]

Understanding the Chinese Navy

Captain Jim Fanell, U.S. Navy (Ret.)—noted expert on the Chinese Navy, former Director of Intelligence for the U.S. Pacific Fleet, and frequent Proceedings c...

www.youtube.com

Very interesting and well articulated presentation. ( Worth your time )

I was skeptical about loaded headlines like 'US predict war with China in 2025'

But now, in the past few month after listening to similar observations concluded in multiple conversations by credible experts from military background I feel somewhat unsure.

We all saw the General Michael Minihan' s memo, which was kind of shocking.

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.airandspaceforces.com/read-full-memo-from-amc-gen-mike-minihan/&ved=2ahUKEwjn5fjJ1c_9AhURRmwGHQ5CArEQFnoECAgQAQ&usg=AOvVaw069jzo20WdA7IwzPOVC-AD

@Gary @Nilgiri what do you guys make of these?

Afif, as you would've probably known, without radical change, U.S are not in such position to challenge China industrially rn. the Jingnan Dao shipyard alone a stated is equal in output to all 7 US navy shipyard and China has 19 of those in similar size. By 2035 at the earliest the Chinese could have the same VLS count on the USN. Even though I think ship per ship the USN is still a level above.

Which makes me all believe that if a war is to commence it will be in the interest of the U.S. The first shot might be China's but the catalyst likely comes from the U.S

There's a political science term called Thucydides trap which stated that war is more likely than not. when an emerging power threatens to displace an existing great power as a regional or international hegemon. People like to draw a comparison between Imperial Germany pre 1914 /Japan in the 30s to China of today and they're not wrong. But it is very naive to think that the U.S will not try to at least attempt a war when they at least know they have the advantage in quantity and quality of firepower. The same energy of which Japan and Germany enters the great war and the Pacific war in retrospect.


Currently the U.S operates,

• 11 Supercarriers with 2 under construction compared to China's 2
• 9 Medium carriers to China's 2 training carriers
• 12 LPD to China's 8
• 70 DDG to China's 40

If the decade from 2020s-2030s are already universally accepted as the decade of concern by US Military and Civilian circle, politicians from the U.S will not wait until the gap grew too close between the two.

The PLA navy while advancing by leaps and bound still has many limitations and it is not even in technology but know how, manning and institutional memory of how modern war is like. This however, as the video suggest is not something that could not be pursued, in fact the author clearly gave an example of what China progress in resupplying ships in contrast from early 2000s to today. What China need is time.

Which makes me believe that the U.S will "engineer" some sort of Taiwan declaration of formal independence sometimes in this decade, which in turn will start a war and finally give the U.S the chance to stomp decades of China's navy progress (and its overall progress in socio-economic-politics) near Taiwan when they know (or believe) with an outmost certainty that they will win or have a more likely outcome of winning.

 

[Bogeyman]

In a War Over Taiwan, First Step Needs to Be Sinking Chinese Ships, Air Force General Says​

The U.S. military would have to focus on sinking Chinese ships if a war broke out over Taiwan, according to the commander of the United States' Pacific Air Forces.

That's one of the lessons Gen. Kenneth Wilsbach took from the scramble of military activity that accompanied a visit by former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to the island in August 2022.



"You saw when Speaker Pelosi went to Taiwan, what [China] did with their ships," Wilsbach told reporters at the Air & Space Forces Association Warfare Symposium in Aurora, Colorado, on Wednesday. "They put them on the east side of Taiwan" -- the side opposite China -- "as a sort of blockade."

Surface-to-air missiles onboard the ships would give the Chinese military the ability to create what Wilsbach called an "anti-access/area denial engagement zone" -- a zone where its enemies might not want to fly because of the risk of getting shot down.

While U.S. officials continue to prioritize deterring China from trying to invade Taiwan -- "we would encourage the Chinese not to attempt to take that island by force" -- the question remains what to do if deterrence doesn't work, Wilsbach said.



The first order of business?

"We've got to sink the ships," Wilsbach said. "Sinking ships is a main objective of not only PACAF [Pacific Air Forces] but really anyone that's going to be involved in a conflict like this."

To prepare for a potential conflict in the region, Wilsbach said the U.S. and its international partner militaries are planning and practicing together a lot more; and that wings within his command frequently practice the Air Force's strategy of dispersing crews and aircraft across "many, many islands."

The last year has seen an escalation of hostilities between the U.S. and China, culminating in the spy balloon that crossed North America before being shot down off the Atlantic coast of South Carolina.

In intercepting a U.S. RC-135 reconnaissance aircraft in December 2022, a Chinese fighter "got very dangerously close ... where that pilot did not ensure that there was his-tail-to-our-wing clearance, and our aircraft actually had to maneuver to keep a collision from happening," Wilsbach said.

Before that, an Australian P-8 maritime patrol aircraft had a run-in with a Chinese fighter in May 2022, and the Chinese fighter "dispensed chaff that went down the engine and then also bounced off of the leading edge of the wing," damaging the P-8.

Just last month, Wilsbach said, the Chinese Coast Guard performed a "lasing" of a Philippine Coast Guard aircraft "with a military-grade laser which could very well have caused physical harm to the crew."

The U.S. could "amass firepower" in the region by arming drones, Wilsbach said, and the upcoming new B-21 Raider bomber, which just rolled out of its hangar to be viewed for the first time in December, could "be helpful in our mission here."

In a War Over Taiwan, First Step Needs to Be Sinking Chinese Ships, Air Force General Says

One of the first things the U.S. military would have to do if it fought China in the defense of Taiwan would be to sink Chinese ships, said the commander of the U.S.'s Pacific Air Forces.

www.military.com

 

[AzeriTank]

Here, Russian geostrategist Andrey Shkolnikov reports that China cannot stop because it has invested too much in expansion. If China stops, then it will face the destruction and collapse of the country into separate provinces. China will try in the coming years to annex Taiwan, Singapore and Malaysia, countries with large Chinese populations. China has given $400 billion to Pakistan. Thus, China will surround India from two sides.
The expansion of China will interfere with the United States. The United States has made China its main adversary.

He also says that the recent terrorist attack in Peshawar was orchestrated by Pashtuns. The Pashtuns do not recognize the Durand line, which divides the Pashtuns into 2 parts between Pakistan and Afghanistan. They want a unified state. Also, if the Pashtuns secede, then the Balochs will also want to secede. In this case, Pakistan loses half of its territory. The Pashtuns and Balochs are close to the Iranians, are nomads, and other Pakistanis are Indian in origin.

The US will try to destabilize and neutralize Russia.
The United States through Israel and Azerbaijan will strike at Iran. Azerbaijan will seek to destroy Iran, because there are about 20 million southern Azerbaijanis in Iran, centered in the city of Tabriz, with whom they want to unite.
Then the land routes for the delivery of oil and gas will be blocked.

dude, im Azerbaijani and i can tell you that Azerbaijan has nothing to do with Iran. it made good connections to be able to purchase Israeli army technologies and political support against Armenians which whole Europe support even though it was Armenia occupied land.
Azerbaijan would never attack Iran, as its oil production is easy targets for iranian missiles, and same thing could be said about iran. If Azerbaijan or any other country hit their gas and oil facilities, which happened to Saudi Arabia and within a day they lost 25% income.
on the other hand there are Turkey who would protect Azerbaijan in case of war against Iran. simply, Azerbaijan would never be the attacking side.

 

[contricusc]

What China need is time.

Which makes me believe that the U.S will "engineer" some sort of Taiwan declaration of formal independence sometimes in this decade, which in turn will start a war and finally give the U.S the chance to stomp decades of China's navy progress (and its overall progress in socio-economic-politics) near Taiwan when they know (or believe) with an outmost certainty that they will win or have a more likely outcome of winning.

I agree with your assessment. This is why my belief is that China must be really stupid to start a war, even in case of a Taiwanese declaration of independence.

Why would you start a war when you are at a disadvantage when time is working for you?

 

[Nilgiri]

China has given $400 billion to Pakistan.

What are you even talking about?

You do realise Pakistan is in a bind right now with the IMF for a reason?...specifically because China wont front them even a few billion (from their literal 3 trillion USD war chest too)?

Even CPEC (40 - 50 billion dollar investment plan based on loans and all forex-sink infra + real estate based....none of it forex earning factory based) is MOU based in "lets see as we go" kind of way.

Pakistan will likewise make its own decision on what to send to Ukraine in return for western financial assistance. The west calls the bargaining power shots there though given Pakistan's desperate economic state now and going forward for a long time.

The latter actually comes through on what you see is what you get terms which is why Pakistan is knocking on IMF door for a while now in lieu of Beijing's (given they were told a firm no by them clearly on current circumstance).

 

[Afif]

What are you even talking about?

You do realise Pakistan is in a bind right now with the IMF for a reason?...specifically because China wont front them even a few billion (from their literal 3 trillion USD war chest too)?

Even CPEC (40 - 50 billion dollar investment plan based on loans and all forex-sink infra + real estate based....none of it forex earning factory based) is MOU based in "lets see as we go" kind of way.

Pakistan will likewise make its own decision on what to send to Ukraine in return for western financial assistance. The west calls the bargaining power shots there though given Pakistan's desperate economic state now and going forward for a long time.

The latter actually comes through on what you see is what you get terms which is why Pakistan is knocking on IMF door for a while now in lieu of Beijing's (given they were told a firm no by them clearly on current circumstance).

Most people doesn't realize China see Pakistan as its junior partner not its pet.

 

[Bogeyman]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1635665451035361280

 

[Gary]

@Afif

Carriers, not submarines will be the main tool for a Pacific fight...as it always had been

 

[Bogeyman]

China, US in war of words over South China Sea navigation​

China’s defence ministry has said that it had – for a second time – monitored and driven away the US Navy guided missile destroyer USS Milius after it entered what Beijing claims as its territorial waters in the South China Sea near the Paracel Islands.

Friday marked the second straight day of a standoff – and heated words – between the two superpowers amid growing tensions in the South China Sea.

“We sternly demand the US to immediately stop such provocative acts, otherwise it will bear the serious consequences of the unforeseen incidents,” a spokesperson for China’s defence ministry said in a statement on Friday.

“The act of the US military seriously violated China’s sovereignty and security, severely breached international laws, and is more ironclad evidence of the US pursuing navigation hegemony and militarizing the South China Sea,” ministry spokesman Tan Kefei said.

He said that China would take “all necessary measures” to ensure its territorial security but did not elaborate.

The Southern Theatre Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said in a statement on Thursday that the USS Milius had been found intruding in waters around the Paracel Islands and that China’s navy and air force were mobilised to “warn” the ship which had then departed the area.


The US Navy disputed China’s version of events, saying the destroyer left the area on conclusion of a “routine operation”.

As China issued its second protest and warnings on Friday, the US Navy issued a lengthy statement specifying that the USS Milius had engaged in asserting “navigational rights and freedoms in the South China Sea near the Paracel Islands, consistent with international law”.

The USS Milius’ freedom of navigation operation was a lawful use of the sea and challenged “restrictions on innocent passage imposed by the People’s Republic of China (PRC)”, and also Taiwan, and Vietnam – who also have territorial claims in the disputed South China Sea – the US Navy said.

China, Taiwan, and Vietnam all claim sovereignty over the Paracel Islands, the Navy continued, and “in violation of customary international law, all three claimants require either permission or advance notification before a military vessel or warship engages in ‘innocent passage’ through the territorial sea”.

“The United States challenges excessive maritime claims around the world regardless of the identity of the claimant,” the Navy said.


“The operations demonstrate that the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows –regardless of the location of excessive maritime claims and regardless of current events,” it added

The war of words is just the latest manifestation of growing tension between US and Chinese forces deployed in the South China Sea.

In early January, China’s defence ministry accused the US of violating international law and of “slander and hype” following a confrontation between a Chinese fighter jet and a US reconnaissance plane over the South China Sea.

The US military claimed that a Chinese J-11 fighter jet had come within six metres (20 feet) of the US RC-135 surveillance aircraft on December 21, forcing the latter to take evasive manoeuvres to avoid a collision. China said the US aircraft was conducting intentional close-in reconnaissance on China’s southern coastline so the People’s Liberation Army sent fighter jets to track and monitor the plane.

Relations between the US and China have become increasingly tense recently, with friction rising between the world’s two largest economies over a range of issues, including the self-ruled island of Taiwan, the shooting down of what the US described as a Chinese spy balloon – which Beijing denied – and the deepening of relations between Beijing and Moscow.

China, US in war of words over South China Sea navigation

China says US destroyer warned off for second day, US Navy said its ship successfully challenged China maritime claims.

www.aljazeera.com