Historical Combat, War, Geopolitics History and Analysis

[Nilgiri]

CBC just aired this regd the SMR assasin case w.r.t Canada @Afif

 

[Afif]

@Nilgiri Apperantly US has become very concern about labor rights. That was two weeks ago.

US threatens sanctions, visa restrictions for labour rights violations​

Published:18th Nov, 2023 at 2:54 AM

The US has announced steps like sanctions and visa restrictions in a move to cut violations of labour rights worldwide.
President Joe Biden signed a memorandum on Advancing Worker Empowerment, Rights, and High Labour Standards Globally on Thursday.
Speaking at the rollout of the memorandum during an event of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in San Francisco, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “Advocating for the rights of workers and raising labour standards – that is a central part of our diplomacy; it’s a central part of our efforts at the Department of State.”

He said the US will work to hold accountable those who threaten, who intimidate, who attack union leaders, labour rights defenders, labour organisations – including using things like sanctions, trade penalties, visa restrictions – all the tools in their kit.

Blinken mentioned the case of Bangladeshi worker Kalpona Akter in his speech.

“We want to be there for people like Kalpona Atker, a Bangladeshi garment worker and activist, who says that she is alive today because the US embassy advocated on her behalf,” he said.
“When we use our voice, when we use our advocacy around the world, we can make a concrete difference in making sure that those who are trying to advance labour rights are protected and defended.”

US threatens sanctions, visa restrictions for labour rights violations

bdnews24.com

And that was two days ago

Bangladesh could be target of US labour policy, warns Washington mission

In a letter, dated 20 November, sent to commerce ministry’s Senior Secretary Tapan Kanti Ghosh by Md Salim Reza, minister (commerce) at the Embassy of Bangladesh, the embassy said there are reasons to believe that Bangladesh may be one of the targets of the US’ recently released memorandum on labour rights.​

Bangladesh could be target of US labour policy, warns Washington mission

In a letter, dated 20 November, sent to commerce ministry’s Senior Secretary Tapan Kanti Ghosh by Md Salim Reza, minister (commerce) at the Embassy of Bangladesh, the embassy said there are reasons to believe that Bangladesh may be one of the targets of the US’ recently released memorandum on...

www.tbsnews.net

​

Remember that US is the biggest export destination of BD's industry. It is gonna have serious effect on the economy if USA introduce trade sanctions as mentioned above.

And to make matter worse, nobody will wants to do business with US sanctioned entities.
@Ryder

​

 

[Ryder]

@Nilgiri Apperantly US has become very concern about labor rights. That was two weeks ago.

US threatens sanctions, visa restrictions for labour rights violations​

Published:18th Nov, 2023 at 2:54 AM

View attachment 63510


The US has announced steps like sanctions and visa restrictions in a move to cut violations of labour rights worldwide.
President Joe Biden signed a memorandum on Advancing Worker Empowerment, Rights, and High Labour Standards Globally on Thursday.
Speaking at the rollout of the memorandum during an event of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in San Francisco, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “Advocating for the rights of workers and raising labour standards – that is a central part of our diplomacy; it’s a central part of our efforts at the Department of State.”

He said the US will work to hold accountable those who threaten, who intimidate, who attack union leaders, labour rights defenders, labour organisations – including using things like sanctions, trade penalties, visa restrictions – all the tools in their kit.

Blinken mentioned the case of Bangladeshi worker Kalpona Akter in his speech.

“We want to be there for people like Kalpona Atker, a Bangladeshi garment worker and activist, who says that she is alive today because the US embassy advocated on her behalf,” he said.
“When we use our voice, when we use our advocacy around the world, we can make a concrete difference in making sure that those who are trying to advance labour rights are protected and defended.”

US threatens sanctions, visa restrictions for labour rights violations

bdnews24.com

And that was two days ago

Bangladesh could be target of US labour policy, warns Washington mission

In a letter, dated 20 November, sent to commerce ministry’s Senior Secretary Tapan Kanti Ghosh by Md Salim Reza, minister (commerce) at the Embassy of Bangladesh, the embassy said there are reasons to believe that Bangladesh may be one of the targets of the US’ recently released memorandum on labour rights.​

Bangladesh could be target of US labour policy, warns Washington mission

In a letter, dated 20 November, sent to commerce ministry’s Senior Secretary Tapan Kanti Ghosh by Md Salim Reza, minister (commerce) at the Embassy of Bangladesh, the embassy said there are reasons to believe that Bangladesh may be one of the targets of the US’ recently released memorandum on...

www.tbsnews.net

​

Remember that US is the biggest export destination of BD's industry. It is gonna have serious effect on the economy if USA introduce trade sanctions as mentioned above.

And to make matter worse, nobody will wants to do business with US sanctioned entities.
@Ryder

​

Bro this is all bullcrap when the USA profits from cheap labour. Biden is just trying to appease his progressive voters with his sjw crap.

American Corporations have biden in their pocket.

 

[Marlii]

@Nilgiri Apperantly US has become very concern about labor rights. That was two weeks ago.

US threatens sanctions, visa restrictions for labour rights violations​

Published:18th Nov, 2023 at 2:54 AM

View attachment 63510


The US has announced steps like sanctions and visa restrictions in a move to cut violations of labour rights worldwide.
President Joe Biden signed a memorandum on Advancing Worker Empowerment, Rights, and High Labour Standards Globally on Thursday.
Speaking at the rollout of the memorandum during an event of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in San Francisco, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “Advocating for the rights of workers and raising labour standards – that is a central part of our diplomacy; it’s a central part of our efforts at the Department of State.”

He said the US will work to hold accountable those who threaten, who intimidate, who attack union leaders, labour rights defenders, labour organisations – including using things like sanctions, trade penalties, visa restrictions – all the tools in their kit.

Blinken mentioned the case of Bangladeshi worker Kalpona Akter in his speech.

“We want to be there for people like Kalpona Atker, a Bangladeshi garment worker and activist, who says that she is alive today because the US embassy advocated on her behalf,” he said.
“When we use our voice, when we use our advocacy around the world, we can make a concrete difference in making sure that those who are trying to advance labour rights are protected and defended.”

US threatens sanctions, visa restrictions for labour rights violations

bdnews24.com

And that was two days ago

Bangladesh could be target of US labour policy, warns Washington mission

In a letter, dated 20 November, sent to commerce ministry’s Senior Secretary Tapan Kanti Ghosh by Md Salim Reza, minister (commerce) at the Embassy of Bangladesh, the embassy said there are reasons to believe that Bangladesh may be one of the targets of the US’ recently released memorandum on labour rights.​

Bangladesh could be target of US labour policy, warns Washington mission

In a letter, dated 20 November, sent to commerce ministry’s Senior Secretary Tapan Kanti Ghosh by Md Salim Reza, minister (commerce) at the Embassy of Bangladesh, the embassy said there are reasons to believe that Bangladesh may be one of the targets of the US’ recently released memorandum on...

www.tbsnews.net

​

Remember that US is the biggest export destination of BD's industry. It is gonna have serious effect on the economy if USA introduce trade sanctions as mentioned above.

And to make matter worse, nobody will wants to do business with US sanctioned entities.
@Ryder

​

Next elections are crucial for Bangladesh. US for some reason really don't like the current government under hassina i think.

 

[Fatman17]

 

[Fatman17]

Very informative documentary on Stalin

 

[Afif]

Liberation War: Who planned the massacre of intellectuals on December 14, 1971 and why?​

It is believed that Rao Farman Ali, an important officer of the Pakistan Army, masterminded the capture and killing of intellectuals during the liberation war of Bangladesh for nine months.
However, he later denied this allegation. But after the end of the war, a diary of Rao Farman Ali was found, which contained the names of many intellectuals of Bangladesh.
According to a famous historian of Bangladesh, the military commander of East Pakistan, Lt. Gen. Niazi, gave formal instructions to capture and kill the intellectuals.
However, historians and researchers also say that no research has been done on the killing of intellectuals during the liberation war in Bangladesh, so these facts cannot be doubted.

Although the intellectuals were captured and killed during the whole nine months of the war, the last blow of the Pakistani army and its allies was the killing of Bengali intellectuals on December 16, 1971, a few days before the Victory Day.
Among those who were killed were university teachers, doctors, artists and established people of various professions. Albadar Bahini assisted the Pakistani army in the killings.
On the night of December 14, many intellectuals were taken from their homes and killed at once.
According to Banglapedia's calculations, 1,111 intellectuals were killed by Pakistani forces during the liberation war. Most of which were in Dhaka. 149 people.
Historians say that many other intellectuals died in districts outside Dhaka, but are not actually remembered as such, if population and death rates are calculated rather than numbers.

Shaheed Intellectuals Memorial Complex in Roy Bazar

Rao Farman's Diary​

Although Pakistani military forces, Al-Badr forces are involved in the killing of intellectuals, it is still not clear to the researchers who did the plan, when and how.
Author and researcher Mohiuddin Ahmed tells BBC Bangla, "It cannot be said for sure what exactly the plan did. From the night of March 25th to December 14th, teachers, journalists, artists - they were killed in towns and villages across the country.
"But it's sad, but it's true, there has been no deep research on it," says Mr. Ahmed.
Historian Muntasir Mamun says that intellectuals were killed in different places before the formation of Al-Badr army. Jamaat-e-Islami's student union was completely transformed into Al-Badr. They are specifically tasked with killing intellectuals. In Dhaka city, Al-Badar took everyone in a microbus and killed them.
Liberation war researchers say that Rao Farman Ali is believed to have masterminded the killing of intellectuals in Bangladesh.
After the fall of Dhaka, a diary of Rao Farman Ali, a ranking officer of the Pakistani army, was found in Governor's House, now known as Banga Bhavan. Names of many dead and missing intellectuals are written there.
But Mr. Mamun says that Rao Farman Ali denied the allegation in an interview given to him later.
The interview that Muntasir Mamun was quoting was the interview of Rao Farman Ali that he and Mohiuddin Ahmed jointly conducted in 1989, while visiting Pakistan. Details of this interview were later published in a book titled 'Sey Sab Pakistani'.
In the book, he writes, he asks Rao Farman Ali, 'After the fall of Dhaka, you found a diary in the Governor's House that contained a list of the intellectuals killed.'
In response, Rao Farman Ali says, 'If I want to kill someone, should I save the list like this? Many people came to me and complained in the name of many. As he was doing it, he was helping her. I would have kept their names, it has nothing to do with that murder.'

'That means, you don't know about the killing of intellectuals, you don't know about the genocide in Bangladesh...' Muntasir Mamun asked again.
Farman did not let him finish. He said, 'Genocide, there was no genocide.'
'All the newspapers of the world wrote that there was a massacre,' repeated Muntasir Mamun.
Rao Farman Ali replied, 'No, not right.'
"But that he was somehow connected with it, it was later proved in some documents. But I think the entire military junta was involved," Muntasir Mamun told the BBC.

Niazi's 'Blueprint'​

Muntasir Mamun also says that some documents were found in the house of Pakistani businessman Abdul Latif Bawani after the war of liberation, so that the instructions of Lieutenant General Amir Abdullah Khan Niazi, the then military commander of East Pakistan, can be found.
Mr. is describing it as 'Niazi's blueprint'. Mamun.
There was a plan not to put any Bengali officer in any position in that directive. All the top officers of the Pakistani army were involved in this plan, said Mr. Mamun.
The International Criminal Court in Dhaka sentenced Chowdhury Muinuddin and Ashrafuzzaman Khan to death for the murders of university teachers, journalists and doctors in 2013.
At that time, the coordinator of the International Criminal Court and Additional Attorney General M. K Rahman quoted the court as saying that the killing of intellectuals took place in 1971 under the direction and involvement of Chowdhury Muinuddin and Ashrafuzzaman Khan.
According to the complaint filed against them in the tribunal, at the end of the 1971 Bangladesh war, Al Badr Bahini, an affiliate of the Pakistani army, systematically killed intellectuals. Mr. Muinuddin intellectual murder incident operation in-charge and Mr. Ashraf was the chief executor.
Mohiuddin Ahmed says, "In Dhaka or in some big cities, non-Bengalis have done this kind of work as collaborators of the Pakistani army. But in rural areas, Bengali Razakars, Muslim Leaguers have brought the army and introduced people, suggested killing".

Why this murder?​

On November 25, 1971, the then university teacher Mir Abdul Qayyum was taken away from his home in Rajshahi by the Pakistan Army. Teacher Mr. It was around nine o'clock in the night when Qayyum was picked up.
At nine o'clock at night, a person Mr. Goes to Qayyum's house and tells that an army officer is calling him outside.
Mr. Qayyum left the house to meet the army officer and never returned.
Two days after Bangladesh became independent, the body of teacher Mir Abdul Qayyum was found in a mass grave at Padma Char near the city of Rajshahi.
The liberation war researchers say that after March 25th, arrests and killings of intellectual activities started all over Bangladesh. But since November, those operations have been stepped up by Pakistani forces and their allies.
Historian Muntasir Mamun tells BBC Bangla, "The killing of intellectuals was completely planned and it started from the 25th of March. Because we see, the first attack was in Dhaka University. There was a reason for this. Students and teachers were the first to stand against the military rulers. So from the time of Ayub Khan, the military rulers had a grudge against the university. Later it spread further.''
"Military junta planned, if the country is deprived of intellectuals, Bangladesh will not be able to raise its head even if it becomes independent one day. From this thought, they started to selectively kill intellectuals,'' says Mr. Mamun.
"Since 47 years, the politicians have united the people, but the intellectuals have done it to inspire and motivate the people. If students are taken into consideration, intellectuals have played a big role in everything from language movement, student movement,'' he says.
Author and researcher Mohiuddin Ahmed says, their main target was students and educational institutions.
Historians say, knowing that defeat was certain, the Pakistani army formed the Al-Badr Army through its Bangladeshi allies and killed the intellectuals.

---

বুদ্ধিজীবী হত্যাকাণ্ডের পরিকল্পনা কারা ও কেন করেছিলেন? - BBC News বাংলা

ঢাকার পতনের পর গভর্ণর হাউজ, যেটি এখন বঙ্গভবন নামে পরিচিত, সেখান থেকে পাকিস্তানি সেনাবাহিনীর পদস্থ কর্মকর্তা রাও ফরমান আলীর একটি ডায়রি পাওয়া যায়। সেখানে অনেক নিহত ও নিখোঁজ বুদ্ধিজীবীর নাম লেখা।

www.bbc.com

@Nilgiri interesting stuff.

 

[Nilgiri]

Liberation War: Who planned the massacre of intellectuals on December 14, 1971 and why?​

View attachment 63885


It is believed that Rao Farman Ali, an important officer of the Pakistan Army, masterminded the capture and killing of intellectuals during the liberation war of Bangladesh for nine months.
However, he later denied this allegation. But after the end of the war, a diary of Rao Farman Ali was found, which contained the names of many intellectuals of Bangladesh.
According to a famous historian of Bangladesh, the military commander of East Pakistan, Lt. Gen. Niazi, gave formal instructions to capture and kill the intellectuals.
However, historians and researchers also say that no research has been done on the killing of intellectuals during the liberation war in Bangladesh, so these facts cannot be doubted.

Although the intellectuals were captured and killed during the whole nine months of the war, the last blow of the Pakistani army and its allies was the killing of Bengali intellectuals on December 16, 1971, a few days before the Victory Day.
Among those who were killed were university teachers, doctors, artists and established people of various professions. Albadar Bahini assisted the Pakistani army in the killings.
On the night of December 14, many intellectuals were taken from their homes and killed at once.
According to Banglapedia's calculations, 1,111 intellectuals were killed by Pakistani forces during the liberation war. Most of which were in Dhaka. 149 people.
Historians say that many other intellectuals died in districts outside Dhaka, but are not actually remembered as such, if population and death rates are calculated rather than numbers.

View attachment 63886
Shaheed Intellectuals Memorial Complex in Roy Bazar

Rao Farman's Diary​

Although Pakistani military forces, Al-Badr forces are involved in the killing of intellectuals, it is still not clear to the researchers who did the plan, when and how.
Author and researcher Mohiuddin Ahmed tells BBC Bangla, "It cannot be said for sure what exactly the plan did. From the night of March 25th to December 14th, teachers, journalists, artists - they were killed in towns and villages across the country.
"But it's sad, but it's true, there has been no deep research on it," says Mr. Ahmed.
Historian Muntasir Mamun says that intellectuals were killed in different places before the formation of Al-Badr army. Jamaat-e-Islami's student union was completely transformed into Al-Badr. They are specifically tasked with killing intellectuals. In Dhaka city, Al-Badar took everyone in a microbus and killed them.
Liberation war researchers say that Rao Farman Ali is believed to have masterminded the killing of intellectuals in Bangladesh.
After the fall of Dhaka, a diary of Rao Farman Ali, a ranking officer of the Pakistani army, was found in Governor's House, now known as Banga Bhavan. Names of many dead and missing intellectuals are written there.
But Mr. Mamun says that Rao Farman Ali denied the allegation in an interview given to him later.
The interview that Muntasir Mamun was quoting was the interview of Rao Farman Ali that he and Mohiuddin Ahmed jointly conducted in 1989, while visiting Pakistan. Details of this interview were later published in a book titled 'Sey Sab Pakistani'.
In the book, he writes, he asks Rao Farman Ali, 'After the fall of Dhaka, you found a diary in the Governor's House that contained a list of the intellectuals killed.'
In response, Rao Farman Ali says, 'If I want to kill someone, should I save the list like this? Many people came to me and complained in the name of many. As he was doing it, he was helping her. I would have kept their names, it has nothing to do with that murder.'

'That means, you don't know about the killing of intellectuals, you don't know about the genocide in Bangladesh...' Muntasir Mamun asked again.
Farman did not let him finish. He said, 'Genocide, there was no genocide.'
'All the newspapers of the world wrote that there was a massacre,' repeated Muntasir Mamun.
Rao Farman Ali replied, 'No, not right.'
"But that he was somehow connected with it, it was later proved in some documents. But I think the entire military junta was involved," Muntasir Mamun told the BBC.

Niazi's 'Blueprint'​

Muntasir Mamun also says that some documents were found in the house of Pakistani businessman Abdul Latif Bawani after the war of liberation, so that the instructions of Lieutenant General Amir Abdullah Khan Niazi, the then military commander of East Pakistan, can be found.
Mr. is describing it as 'Niazi's blueprint'. Mamun.
There was a plan not to put any Bengali officer in any position in that directive. All the top officers of the Pakistani army were involved in this plan, said Mr. Mamun.
The International Criminal Court in Dhaka sentenced Chowdhury Muinuddin and Ashrafuzzaman Khan to death for the murders of university teachers, journalists and doctors in 2013.
At that time, the coordinator of the International Criminal Court and Additional Attorney General M. K Rahman quoted the court as saying that the killing of intellectuals took place in 1971 under the direction and involvement of Chowdhury Muinuddin and Ashrafuzzaman Khan.
According to the complaint filed against them in the tribunal, at the end of the 1971 Bangladesh war, Al Badr Bahini, an affiliate of the Pakistani army, systematically killed intellectuals. Mr. Muinuddin intellectual murder incident operation in-charge and Mr. Ashraf was the chief executor.
Mohiuddin Ahmed says, "In Dhaka or in some big cities, non-Bengalis have done this kind of work as collaborators of the Pakistani army. But in rural areas, Bengali Razakars, Muslim Leaguers have brought the army and introduced people, suggested killing".

Why this murder?​

On November 25, 1971, the then university teacher Mir Abdul Qayyum was taken away from his home in Rajshahi by the Pakistan Army. Teacher Mr. It was around nine o'clock in the night when Qayyum was picked up.
At nine o'clock at night, a person Mr. Goes to Qayyum's house and tells that an army officer is calling him outside.
Mr. Qayyum left the house to meet the army officer and never returned.
Two days after Bangladesh became independent, the body of teacher Mir Abdul Qayyum was found in a mass grave at Padma Char near the city of Rajshahi.
The liberation war researchers say that after March 25th, arrests and killings of intellectual activities started all over Bangladesh. But since November, those operations have been stepped up by Pakistani forces and their allies.
Historian Muntasir Mamun tells BBC Bangla, "The killing of intellectuals was completely planned and it started from the 25th of March. Because we see, the first attack was in Dhaka University. There was a reason for this. Students and teachers were the first to stand against the military rulers. So from the time of Ayub Khan, the military rulers had a grudge against the university. Later it spread further.''
"Military junta planned, if the country is deprived of intellectuals, Bangladesh will not be able to raise its head even if it becomes independent one day. From this thought, they started to selectively kill intellectuals,'' says Mr. Mamun.
"Since 47 years, the politicians have united the people, but the intellectuals have done it to inspire and motivate the people. If students are taken into consideration, intellectuals have played a big role in everything from language movement, student movement,'' he says.
Author and researcher Mohiuddin Ahmed says, their main target was students and educational institutions.
Historians say, knowing that defeat was certain, the Pakistani army formed the Al-Badr Army through its Bangladeshi allies and killed the intellectuals.

---

বুদ্ধিজীবী হত্যাকাণ্ডের পরিকল্পনা কারা ও কেন করেছিলেন? - BBC News বাংলা

ঢাকার পতনের পর গভর্ণর হাউজ, যেটি এখন বঙ্গভবন নামে পরিচিত, সেখান থেকে পাকিস্তানি সেনাবাহিনীর পদস্থ কর্মকর্তা রাও ফরমান আলীর একটি ডায়রি পাওয়া যায়। সেখানে অনেক নিহত ও নিখোঁজ বুদ্ধিজীবীর নাম লেখা।

www.bbc.com

@Nilgiri interesting stuff.

Yes I am familiar with this character (Rao Farman Ali) for quite some time now. From operation searchlight to the last intellectual massacres that happened in december, it was part of my deep research/reading I did from about 2006 - 2016 at various times on the subject. A lot of it was spurred on by close Bangladeshi friend I made in university who's father was freedom fighter during the time and later became successful businessman.

On PDF there was even a member claiming to be his (R.F Ali) nephew that would produce various apologia/denial that stoked my ire....there is simply a huge air of denial looming over these matters given human proclivity, narrative, agenda to justify or whitewash something bad.

Its a sordid subject, but I am glad BD is on the mend and rise, has set up decent socioeconomic base now and will continue to prove all the evil saboteurs of that dark period wrong.

@Joe Shearer

 

[Afif]

@Nilgiri @Joe Shearer @Rooxbar et al.

 

[Rooxbar]

Pax Americana (or more like Bellum Americanum) as a period of history is just a continuation of Pax Britannica and is the appellation for the collective might of the Western block and their minions (as opposed to an order reliant on only one country like China). It doesn't exclusively rely on military or economical might, but to lesser extent in terms of raw power on a financial, linguistic, entertainment, media and social media might as well. This Pax (or Bellum) is here to stay for centuries, even though it might have to share it economically and in terms of international institutions with other players like China.

The globalization of neoliberalism has meant that added value is more and more extracted from the third world and concentrated in the hands of billionaires in the west. This is a trend that has sped up immensely in the past three decades. Very few would contest this fact (it's a simple matter of looking up the numbers) but these same people who would not contest it, think the west is falling. How can it be that concentration of wealth is increasing but the west is falling? The centers of gravity of that concentration is all in the west, and the places that wealth is extracted are mostly in Asia.

The narratives about west's fall are about the fall of productive capacity, manufacturing and demographics. But the growing concentration of wealth shows the methods of extraction are working fine (despite the fall in thos categories) and most of the value added in production and manufacturing from the periphery ends up in western hands. All the dreams about the fall of the west by the dwellers of the periphery are asinine wishful thinking in so far as they don't recognize and have no solutions to reverse the impact of this method of concentration of wealth through unequal exchange and IP from the periphery to the center.

P.S. some might challenge this to point out how that production and manufacturing capacity which fuels that extraction and unequal exchange can be taken away when status quo is broken. This trivializes the cheapness of labor all around the world.

 

[Rooxbar]

All China is trying to do by making it seem like they are very aggressively and possibly militarily pursuing unification is to create a fear of imminent invasion of Taiwan in U.S., making them slowly retreat from positions feigning military support for Taiwan; since China knows an engagement with China in China's backyard is not practical for U.S. and U.S. regional allies will surely not sacrifice themselves for Taiwan. As China turns up the heat under the Taiwan stove, they hope U.S. takes the heat seriously enough to take their hands off of Taiwan and adjust rhetorics accordingly, which leaves out the space for China to create nuisances for Taiwan's trade with not much scrutiny, making Taiwanese population lose hope in an intervention by U.S. after seeing their retreat, hence in fear of the prospects of further blockade or even an invasion, vote for parties advocating for peaceful unification.

Needless to say, all parts of this plan can go wrong. For one, U.S. deep state (what I call U.S. deep state one can easily discern by looking at long-standing Senate seats, their sometimes 4-decade long consulters and assistants, many of the foreign policy and intelligence community's high-ranking officials which have been and are on rotation for 3, 4 decades regardless of Democrat or Republican admin, even for Trump; editorial boards of major publications and members of important think tanks mostly established by the country's biggest lobbyists and billionaires) seems to read the situation as such, and are even ratcheting up the rhetoric, signalling to China that their perceptions about U.S. diffidence about a direct conflict are ill-conceived. China thinks this is a bluff; it probably is for a good portion of those establishment figures, but certainly not for Aaron Friedbergs of the world. The one part that is slated to cause problems is the Taiwanese population's perceptions of China and the rising national awareness as a distinct identity which will not lend itself into voting for "appeasement", as the spiral of security-nationalism dilemma will play itself out here as well (as the most recurring theme of history of international relations). This will lead China to adopt coercive measures causing U.S. to respond, leading to more protectionism making it a proper cold war.

P.S. And as I've stated elsewhere U.S. didn't attack Soviet Union during the cold war, they fought proxy wars of sorts in Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Cuba, Hungry, Czechoslovakia and Nicaragua. These were wars or conflicts of alignment; a parallel will happen in the coming decades.

 

[Afif]

Pax Americana (or more like Bellum Americanum) as a period of history is just a continuation of Pax Britannica and is the appellation for the collective might of the Western block and their minions (as opposed to an order reliant on only one country like China). It doesn't exclusively rely on military or economical might, but to lesser extent in terms of raw power on a financial, linguistic, entertainment, media and social media might as well. This Pax (or Bellum) is here to stay for centuries, even though it might have to share it economically and in terms of international institutions with other players like China.

The globalization of neoliberalism has meant that added value is more and more extracted from the third world and concentrated in the hands of billionaires in the west. This is a trend that has sped up immensely in the past three decades. Very few would contest this fact (it's a simple matter of looking up the numbers) but these same people who would not contest it, think the west is falling. How can it be that concentration of wealth is increasing but the west is falling? The centers of gravity of that concentration is all in the west, and the places that wealth is extracted are mostly in Asia.

The narratives about west's fall are about the fall of productive capacity, manufacturing and demographics. But the growing concentration of wealth shows the methods of extraction are working fine (despite the fall in thos categories) and most of the value added in production and manufacturing from the periphery ends up in western hands. All the dreams about the fall of the west by the dwellers of the periphery are asinine wishful thinking in so far as they don't recognize and have no solutions to reverse the impact of this method of concentration of wealth through unequal exchange and IP from the periphery to the center.

P.S. some might challenge this to point out how that production and manufacturing capacity which fuels that extraction and unequal exchange can be taken away when status quo is broken. This trivializes the cheapness of labor all around the world.

I humbly disagree.

Pax Americana won't stay here for centuries. Not in the dominant form as we see it today. It is true, 20th century was probably the most radical in human history. End of the first cold war and collapse of Soviet union marked the finest triumph of Pax Americana, not only in the physical and meterial terms, but in every other way possible. World adopted Catipalist economy. English is the world language. New generation in every corner of the world increasingly adopted Western way of life. We watch American movies, listen to American music, more and more we wear Western clothing. A highly individualistic & materialistic world view learnt (in the name of modernity) from the West dominates our lives. In short, no other civilization in the history of mankind has impacted and influenced humanity the way Western civilization did. Not even close. And that is thanks to the scientific advances and technological innovations brought by the West itself that connected all of Humanity in an unprecedented manner.

So yes, chances are some fundemntal aspects of Pax Americana will stay with us for centuries. That is indisputable. As with every previous civilization. It is just that, the scale and magnitude of this one is so big that it eclipses all the others.

However, the increasing numbers of billionaires in the West and growing concentrations of wealth in their hands through added value extracted from the cheap asian labour is a poor argument for the continuation of Wesgern hegemony. The reason we observe this trend (as i mentioned earlier) is because world adopted the Capitalist economy and it operates within Western financial system. And guess who had the most capital in their hand? It is the western elite. So of course they will get richer than ever. Of course there is an unequal exchange. Because of the obvious power imbalance and the fact that the world financial system is designed and maintained by the West.

However, something much more significant occured in the same time period. Despite this unequal and unfair exchange, the overall economic gap between West and the 'Rest' has rapidly decreased. See the world of 1970 and today's world in terms of GDP percentage shared by countries.

If we focus narrowly, it may seem Western billionaires and the Wall Street got the most out of it in the last few decades. In reality, the biggest losers of the Capitalist Globalisation are the middle class and the average Joe of America. While the biggest winner from the Wall Street's fine exercise of Capitalism is PRC.

For West, the only way to reverse this is to bring back the industry and manufacturing to home. But that would be at the expense of Wall Street and those same billionaires as there won't be any cheap labour in domstic manufacturing. Also, it would impact the quality of life for middle class as they won't be able to afford many things that they previously did due to the staggering cost of domstic manufacturing.

But chances are it won't happen because the West, US of A in particular is not really a nation state anymore. It is a 'market state' with an extreme individualistic and materialistic culture where people's, specially billionaires top priority is their own capital and consumptions. Not necessarily the collective national interest. And this very extreme Capitalist framework & culture is America's very own Frankenstein's monster.

In a nutshell, West isn't falling nor will it fall anytime in the future. The real argument is about the 'Rest' increasingly catching up. Which is very much true and detrimental to Western hegemony.

 

[contricusc]

However, the increasing numbers of billionaires in the West and growing concentrations of wealth in their hands through added value extracted from the cheap asian labour is a poor argument for the continuation of Wesgern hegemony.

The number of billionaires has increased in the developing world at a faster pace than in the West.

The top ten countries with the most billionaires are:

1. United States – 724
2. China – 698
3. India – 237
4. Germany – 136
5. Russia – 117
6. Hong Kong – 71
7. Brazil – 65
8. Canada – 64
9. United Kingdom – 56
10. Italy – 51

As you can see, in the top ten we have China, India, Russia, Hong Kong and Brazil, so half of the countries in the top ten are not part of the West.

If we go back 30 years ago, the number of billionaires outside the Western world was much smaller than now. The growth in extreme wealth has been higher in countries like China, India, Russia or Brazil than in European countries. This shows that the local elites extracted the value from cheap labor and narural resources, not the Western elites.

Despite this unequal and unfair exchange, the overall economic gap between West and the 'Rest' has rapidly decreased. See the world of 1970 and today's world in terms of GDP percentage shared by countries.

This proves that the exchange was not unequal and not unfair. The West decided to consume more and work less than before, so it lived a better life for a few decades, at the exchange of transferring some of its wealth to the developing nations.

The wealth gap between the West and the rest of the world is getting smaller, not bigger, because the West consumes from its past accumulated wealth while the developing world produces for them.

You can compare the West with a pensioner who stopped working and is living from his savings and investment income (consuming his wealth), while the developing world is a young man who works two jobs in order to buy his first house. Yes, the older guy has a better lifestyle and doesn’t even work, while the young guy works all day and cannot afford the same luxuries, but he is building wealth while the other one is consuming it. The wealth gap between them is only going to get smaller with time.

If we focus narrowly, it may seem Western billionaires and the Wall Street got the most out of it in the last few decades. In reality, the biggest losers of the Capitalist Globalisation are the middle class and the average Joe of America. While the biggest winner from the Wall Street's fine exercise of Capitalism is PRC.

The Western billionaires and Wall Street are like the retired people with a huge investment portfolio that generates more money than what they can spend, so they get even wealthier despite being retired and not working.

The Western middle class and average Joe of America are like the retired people who spend their savings because the interest income is not enough to cover their expenses, so they consume their wealth and will run out of it, becoming poor.

The PRC are the ones doing the hard work, and making money out of it, so of course they got richer.

The West became lazy and lived above its means, so of course the middle class is going to get poorer. Only the very rich can afford to live off their wealth and grow it at the same time. Most people need to work and earn money in order to sustain their lifestyle, but people in the West are not willing to do the hard work they did in the past, and at the same time they want to consume more. This lifestyle has been sustained by taking on huge amounts of debt, and in the case of the US by the printing of dollars (which unlike other currencies didn’t collapse despite the huge trade defficits, because it is propped by its status as the World’s reseve curreency and has demand from all ove the world).

For West, the only way to reverse this is to bring back the industry and manufacturing to home. But that would be at the expense of Wall Street and those same billionaires as there won't be any cheap labour in domstic manufacturing.

The West can’t bring back its manufacturing while maintaining the current high wages, because it would be uncompetitive. There is no way out for the West from its current economic model. If it brings back manufacturing, it must also impose huge tariffs on imports, because otherwise it won’t be able to sell the local overpriced production. This results in huge price inflation which creates a spiral of increased costs for production, which keeps it uncompetitive compared to the rest of the world. The only way the West can be competitive in manufacturing again is to allow a huge devaluation of its currencies and a huge decrease in the standard of living and work regulations, which is politically impossible to do.

Also, it would impact the quality of life for middle class as they won't be able to afford many things that they previously did due to the staggering cost of domstic manufacturing.

Exaclty. That’s why it is politically and economically unsustainable.

But chances are it won't happen because the West, US of A in particular is not really a nation state anymore. It is a 'market state' with an extreme individualistic and materialistic culture where people's, specially billionaires top priority is their own capital and consumptions. Not necessarily the collective national interest.

The elites’ top priority in every country and culture is the preservation and increase of its power and wealth. This is not something specific to the Capitalists or to the US. It has been like this for centuries in every culture.

The so called “collective national interest” is just an indoctrination slogan used by the elites to mobilize their people to do their bidding.

In a nutshell, West isn't falling not will it fall anytime in the future. The real argument is about the 'Rest' increasingly catching up. Which is very much true and detrimental to Western hegemony.

The West is falling, but the process is slow. The rest is growing, but this is also slow. The Western hegemony will fade in the following decades. This is inevitable as there is no political or popular will in the West to right the ship.

 

[Rooxbar]

I humbly disagree.

Pax Americana won't stay here for centuries. Not in the dominant form as we see it today. It is true, 20th century was probably the most radical in human history. End of the first cold war and collapse of Soviet union marked the finest triumph of Pax Americana, not only in the physical and meterial terms, but in every other way possible. World adopted Catipalist economy. English is the world language. New generation in every corner of the world increasingly adopted Western way of life. We watch American movies, listen to American music, more and more we wear Western clothing. A highly individualistic & materialistic world view learnt (in the name of modernity) from the West dominates our lives. In short, no other civilization in the history of mankind has impacted and influenced humanity the way Western civilization did. Not even close. And that is thanks to the scientific advances and technological innovations brought by the West itself that connected all of Humanity in an unprecedented manner.

So yes, chances are some fundemntal aspects of Pax Americana will stay with us for centuries. That is indisputable. As with every previous civilization. It is just that, the scale and magnitude of this one is so big that it eclipses all the others.

However, the increasing numbers of billionaires in the West and growing concentrations of wealth in their hands through added value extracted from the cheap asian labour is a poor argument for the continuation of Wesgern hegemony. The reason we observe this trend (as i mentioned earlier) is because world adopted the Capitalist economy and it operates within Western financial system. And guess who had the most capital in their hand? It is the western elite. So of course they will get richer than ever. Of course there is an unequal exchange. Because of the obvious power imbalance and the fact that the world financial system is designed and maintained by the West.

However, something much more significant occured in the same time period. Despite this unequal and unfair exchange, the overall economic gap between West and the 'Rest' has rapidly decreased. See the world of 1970 and today's world in terms of GDP percentage shared by countries.

If we focus narrowly, it may seem Western billionaires and the Wall Street got the most out of it in the last few decades. In reality, the biggest losers of the Capitalist Globalisation are the middle class and the average Joe of America. While the biggest winner from the Wall Street's fine exercise of Capitalism is PRC.

For West, the only way to reverse this is to bring back the industry and manufacturing to home. But that would be at the expense of Wall Street and those same billionaires as there won't be any cheap labour in domstic manufacturing. Also, it would impact the quality of life for middle class as they won't be able to afford many things that they previously did due to the staggering cost of domstic manufacturing.

But chances are it won't happen because the West, US of A in particular is not really a nation state anymore. It is a 'market state' with an extreme individualistic and materialistic culture where people's, specially billionaires top priority is their own capital and consumptions. Not necessarily the collective national interest. And this very extreme Capitalist framework & culture is America's very own Frankenstein's monster.

In a nutshell, West isn't falling nor will it fall anytime in the future. The real argument is about the 'Rest' increasingly catching up. Which is very much true and detrimental to Western hegemony.

I agree with many points here as I was not arguing that Pax Americana is going to stay here for centuries. That sentence was about west's power. Pax Americana as a political order is already in its death throes, and will be dead in a decade or two. What I was arguing was that in the ensuing cold war, the west will be the stronger block for a long time.

The fall of western contribution as a share of world gdp compared to rising powers since late 70s is given as an argument always when their downfall is discussed. But the GDP measures annual output/income, and does not capture accumulated assets/wealth built up over decades. Wealth growth can outpace annual GDP and private wealth is increasingly held outside of production/commercial activities included in GDP (e.g. financial, real estate wealth); in addition, Western MNCs book profits in low-tax jurisdictions not captured in home country GDP. When forced to repatriate to home country, they engage in transfer pricing and IP shifting. This trend is a natural one for developed countries, but it's a trend they can escape when push comes to shove. You raise a good point about American culture and the inertia of Wall Street mindset, but I think a shift of culture is not impossible if history is any indication. These shifts are not hard to come by if the issue is forced in an economic level. The dominant ideological framework which you mention is hardly eternal as it came to dominate with Chicago school in mid 70s. Before that talk of planning was mainstream as the defeat of the soviets and state capitalism did not seem so certain; au contraire, it seemed to work fine by bringing a farming empire of 1910s to an industrial giant in 1960s. So the assets and wealth lying dormant can be mobilized and turned from idle funds to production incentives and investments if a change in political order is forced from free market capitalism to state capitalism and war-time economy; a change of policy from extreme free market practices can stop use of tax havens, IP shifting, stock buybacks, etc.

Another point to cancel the trend of declining share of western contribution to world GDP is that this trend is not correlated with a similar FDI trend, which one would expect to see. Chinese and Russian billionaires are investing in Western stock market and real estate, not vice versa. People around the world know, love and consume and depend upon products of mostly western brands. Many of these countries' various industries have pedigree, vision, expertise, history and brand recognition. Even if they are denied access to the labor from china, what is not scarce is cheap labor. Even if they are not the hegemon, they have much to offer to countries willing to accept their MNCs to build factories in those countries. They also may be in a reactionary folly against immigrant labor now, but that frenzy will pass in a decade or two when the issue is forced. U.S. as the main player will never have such a problem due to its geography.

Now all of this depends very much on Western currencies keeping their exchange value. Some Russophiles and Sinophiles daydream about this scenario without asking themselves: why and how would the dollar, euro, british pound, swiss franc, canadian dollar, australian dollar, norwegian krone, japanese yen all devalue at the same time? Lower global demand for the dollar due to waning influence of U.S. may restrict their hands in printing it to fund themselves, but as I said they can always resort to mobilizing what they already have.

Now this is looking at the full half of the glass; but I mention these only because in the peripheral wishful thinking, only the empty half is in focus, so we've heard enough of that. But these are dynamic forces and history never finishes. I think evidence points to a lasting Western power being a major player for a long time. The best argument against this is rifts in that block effectively making it split into camps. Because the strength is their unity and size.

 

[Afif]

The Arms of the Future: A Book Talk with Jack Watling

Please join the CSIS International Security Program for a conversation with Dr. Jack Watling on his recent book, The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close...

www.youtube.com

@Kartal1 @Sanchez @Nilgiri I could not recommend this enough. Please do watch it from the beginning to the end. I listen to interviews and podcasts like this frequently, but this guy's wisdom really 'blew' me away. I mean, many of the stuff we would know already, but the way he construct the bigger picture, is unique and convincing.

 

[Nilgiri]

The Arms of the Future: A Book Talk with Jack Watling

Please join the CSIS International Security Program for a conversation with Dr. Jack Watling on his recent book, The Arms of the Future: Technology and Close...

www.youtube.com

@Kartal1 @Sanchez @Nilgiri I could not recommend this enough. Please do watch it from the beginning to the end. I listen to interviews and podcasts like this frequently, but this guy's wisdom really 'blew' me away. I mean, many of the stuff we would know already, but the way he construct the bigger picture, is unique and convincing.

Yes I can vouch for what he says in the middle w.r.t the decisions needed by the smaller western powers in investing+procuring for the short term and this being zero sum to high degree with the investments needed for the mid term and long term.

Those conversations are all taking new shape in Canada as well, even with US bulk closer by and sharing NORAD and so on.

US has signalled a number of times the defence burden has to be shared.

The US really enjoys something unique here in the separate continental landmass, immense navy and logistical capability....along with the USD as the global currency (and thus automatic easy leverage) that enables it to invest and procure like it does simultaneously in the short, mid and long term compared to all the other allied nations in NATO....and also test, network and optimise coherently at scale.

Every other US ally has to make more severe tradeoffs in comparison. The basic time occupied in Canadian parliament about the growing national debt (compared to US and its ability, though degrading.... to kick the can on this) is reflective of how much faster things impact the smaller allies in the basic civilian paradigm that pays the security bills.

Another thing he mentioned earlier somewhat .....in the long term Russia and China have serious issues from what Russia has provided NATO to study in realtime in Ukraine. These things are not in black or grey boxes that much anymore like before. Russia expended this powder like this, China cannot be happy about it at all as it has lot of things to grow institutionally still in its military feedback loops (especially without conflict tests and results).