Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

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Biden just called Putin and invited to talks.

Putin's bluff was successful. Now the only question what he will get.

The batlics, parts of scandinavia and parts of ukraine in return for support against china.
 

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Landing craft from the Caspian Flotilla were spotted recently going through Rostov-on-Don on their way to the Sea of Azov.


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The batlics, parts of scandinavia and parts of ukraine in return for support against china.
Baltics and Scandinavia out of question. He does not wants parts of Ukraine either. He wants water for Crimea, recognition of his goons in Ukraine, removal of sanctions etc.
 
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Biden just called Putin and invited to talks.

Putin's bluff was successful. Now the only question what he will get.
Putin spoke with a person who called him murderer. It wasnt success.
 

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TheInsider

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The US cant do jackshit to Russia on its doorstep. Russian military build-up is at an insane level. Probably above 5k tanks 2k artillery pieces. Entire mechanized armies are deployed. 3 fucking airborne divisions were deployed close by the last time i checked. It is like WW2 level. Fighting overseas where the navy is useless against a force this big is extremely hard even for the mighty US. On the other hand, i don't expect the Russians to push the issue too far. IMHO they are targeting east of the Dnepr river at max. and guarantee water sources and a land connection to Crimea at min. Biden might be willing to cede those areas to the Russians in exchange for something else. Maybe cooperation against China which the Russians will agree but won't honor once agreed area ceded to them.
 

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The US cant do jackshit to Russia on its doorstep. Russian military build-up is at an insane level. Probably above 5k tanks 2k artillery pieces. Entire mechanized armies are deployed. 3 fucking airborne divisions were deployed close by the last time i checked. It is like WW2 level. Fighting overseas where the navy is useless against a force this big is extremely hard even for the mighty US. On the other hand, i don't expect the Russians to push the issue too far. IMHO they are targeting east of the Dnepr river at max. and guarantee water sources and a land connection to Crimea at min. Biden might be willing to cede those areas to the Russians in exchange for something else. Maybe cooperation against China which the Russians will agree but won't honor once agreed area ceded to them.

At a bare minimum Turkey should be working in the background to make sure that Ukraine will put up a resistance. Anyway as for NATO i personally feel its a dead thing, it pretty much died the day the Turks downed a Russian jet and most NATO rushed to side with Putin. Who remembers the calls of "kick Turkey out of Nato", Turkey being one of the few serious nations to oppose putin in any real manner, whether it be libya, syria, azerbaijan or in ukraine.
 
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We all should remember how mighty USSR couldnt bare in Afghanistan.



Russia accuses NATO of inciting Ukraine

Zakharova again criticizes the West for supporting Ukraine

NATO is inciting the Ukrainian authorities to aggravate the Donbas, and the EU does not condemn Kiev's actions, Zakharova said.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova accused NATO of inciting Ukraine to maintain tensions in Donbas. She announced this on Wednesday, April 14, on the air of Vesti FM radio station.



"NATO, a military alliance that must deal with security issues, again flirts with Kiev in every possible way. At the same time, being in contact and close relations with the Kiev regime, the alliance does not express concern about what is happening there (in the Donbass), but on the contrary still more instigates Kiev politicians, these hotheads on the so-called accomplishments, and this has been happening for many years. Children, women, elderly people are dying, "the diplomat said.

She also criticized the actions of the European Union.

"The EU, which is a union of European states with a powerful economy and armed forces, special services, is watching what is happening in the very heart of Europe, and not only watching, but encouraging the Kiev regime in every possible way. This is no longer about human rights, but about primary security, "says Zakharova.

She added that the EU has never harshly addressed Kiev with its condemnation of the actions in the Donbass.

"You will not find a single public call - a tough one - to Kiev to report on the work done, to return to the negotiating table, to stop this political not even an intrigue, but an international political outrage. None of this happened," Zakharova emphasized.

A spokesman for the Russian Foreign Ministry complained that the EU, on the contrary, has toughened its rhetoric against the Russian Federation, blaming Moscow for the failure of everything that happens in Ukraine.

Recall that the day before, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba met with NATO Secretary General Jensem Stoltenberg, following which the latter assured the Ukrainian minister of support in the escalation situation from Russia.
 
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Stoltenberg told how NATO helps Ukraine

NATO supports Ukraine not only in words, but also in deeds - Stoltenberg

The Allies and NATO provide practical support, helping to build institutions in the field of security and defense and modernize the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the secretary general emphasized.

NATO supports Ukraine in the face of aggression from the Russian Federation, not only in words, but also in deeds. This was stated by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at a briefing with Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba on Tuesday, April 13.

“What we have seen since 2014 (the year the Russian aggression began - ed.) Is that NATO provides significant support to Ukraine in various ways. We have expressed strong political support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine, allies and NATO provide practical support, we we help build institutions in the field of security and defense, modernize the Armed Forces. Allies also provide training, participation in joint exercises, and also support in other ways, "Stoltenberg emphasized.

The Alliance Secretary General recalled that NATO and Ukraine have developed a "strong partnership", which has strengthened in recent years also by granting Ukraine a special status of a partner with enhanced capabilities.

"This is an important partnership, and it demonstrates the value that NATO attaches to partnership with Ukraine," Stoltenberg said.

NATO has "a very limited number of advanced partners - Sweden, Finland, Georgia, Jordan and Australia," he said.

"Now Ukraine is also. This is a platform to further strengthen our political and practical cooperation, to work together. This is good for Ukraine, and good for allies in the Alliance. I welcome renewed commitments and strong signals of the importance of close partnership, which is demonstrated through partnership with advanced capabilities, "added Stoltenberg.

The NATO Secretary General also recalled the increase in NATO's presence in the Black Sea region and in the Black Sea.

“NATO allies have also responded by increasing the readiness of our forces, we have also strengthened our presence in the eastern part of the alliance, in the Baltic region. All this was done in response to Russia's aggressive actions against Ukraine. This is support that demonstrates not only words, but also business, and during the meeting today we also discussed how we can further strengthen our partnership and demonstrate support for Ukraine, "Stoltenberg summed up.
 

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Moscow Moving 15 Warships From Caspian Sea to Waters off Ukraine​


The Russian Ministry of Defense announced today (April 13) that Moscow is sending 15 naval vessels from its Caspian Flotilla to waters off Ukraine to take part in military exercises there. Earlier, Russian and Ukrainian media had reported stories about a smaller number. Although the vessels must pass through a 100-kilometer-long canal with more than 13 locks, they will likely be able to arrive before other ships, sent from Russia’s Baltic Fleet, make it to the Black Sea basin. Moreover, although the ships are smaller and less heavily armed than the ones coming from the Baltic, the Caspian Flotilla has, over the last several years, developed a landing capability that could make it a central element in any new Russian invasion of Ukraine from the sea (RIA Novosti, April 13, 2021; see EDM, June 7, 2018).

Moscow is playing up this move as well as the concurrent transfer of armored units from the eastern parts of the North Caucasus to Russian-occupied Crimea (Vzglyad, April 13; Mishen24, April 10). Analysts, however, are divided on whether this movement of the Caspian Flotilla vessels and related shore units is simply part of an effort to blackmail Ukraine and its Western supporters, whether it is a response to Turkey’s decision to allow North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) warships to traverse the Turkish Straits and enter the Black Sea, or if it represents the final stages of Russian preparations for a full-scale invasion of Ukraine (Rosbalt, April 2; Avia.pro, April 10; Sudebno-Yuridicheskaya Gazeta, April 11).

Obviously, the answers to those larger questions depend on Moscow’s larger plans for operations regarding Ukraine. But two analysts have focused on what the role of the Caspian Flotilla may mean. In comments for the Kavkazsky Uzel news agency, independent Russian security analysts Aleksandr Golts and Pavel Felgenhauer link what is happening with the ships of the Flotilla to the increasing activity of NATO forces in the Black Sea (Kavkazsky Uzel, April 10). Golts stressed that the respective Russian ships themselves “are not a powerful strike force and are relatively small.” Larger vessels simply could not pass through the canals as the 15 are doing now. Consequently, he argued, the decision to transfer the Caspian Flotilla vessels is a form of Russian “saber rattling,” designed to send a message that Moscow could, if it chose to, launch “a major military operation.”

The three larger warships coming from the Baltic Sea, the Minsk, the Kaliningrad and the Korolyev, as well as the smaller Boykiy, have greater punch, but they cannot arrive as quickly as the Caspian Flotilla vessels and cannot perform the same functions as the smaller ships from the Caspian can, Golts suggested. Felgenhauer agreed, although he emphasized that even the smaller Caspian vessels could introduce troops and equipment for an invasion of Ukraine.

A precedent exists for Moscow using ships from the Caspian Sea to put pressure on Ukraine without following that up with any new invasion. In May 2018, though with much less ceremony than today, Moscow quietly shifted five Caspian Flotilla vessels to the Sea of Azov, a move the Russian authorities cast then as needed to defend against a Ukrainian attack on occupied Crimea and to ensure that Moscow could protect its shipping in the region against any assault (see EDM, May 31, 2018). After tensions eased, Moscow withdrew those Caspian Flotilla ships and relied instead on its own coastal vessels in the Sea of Azov controlled by the Federal Security Service (FSB) and on a skeleton force of ships operated by the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic as its own “independent” Azov Flotilla (Svobodnaya Pressa, May 29, 2018).

Once the 15 vessels from the Caspian Flotilla and the 4 from the Baltic Fleet are in place, Russia will have 50 warships in the waters around Ukraine, a force large and powerful enough to counter the NATO vessels that have entered the Black Sea to date. But more worrisome is that the inclusion of the Caspian Flotilla vessels suggests Russian commanders are at least as interested in having a landing capability as they are in projecting a defensive shield against the NATO forces sent in to signal support for Ukraine. That is because, more than any of the other ships involved, those from the Caspian Flotilla have devoted their training to landing troops and equipment either to defend Russian positions under attack or to attack those of others (see EDM, May 31, 2018, November 27, 2018, December 4, 2018, May 28, 2019).

That makes today’s announcement and the dislocation of the Caspian Flotilla vessels to the Black Sea in the next few days a critical indicator of Moscow’s intentions. If these ships are kept in the Sea of Azov, as they largely were three years ago, it would suggest that these Russian naval assets are likely being used as an attempt to intimidate but not necessarily invade. If they are moved further westward, in the direction of Odesa, it would indicate these forces are being put into position for the kind of broad-scale invasion many fear.
 
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A "skirmish" between Russian and Ukrainian boats took place on Azov


Russian boats tried to interfere with the Ukrainian military boats that were on alert. The Foreign Ministry announced a strong protest.

The command of the Navy of the Armed Forces of Ukraine said that on the night of Thursday, April 15, the boats of the Federal Security Service of the Russian Federation tried unsuccessfully to obstruct the actions of the submarine group of the Ukrainian Naval Forces, which was on combat duty in the Sea of Azov. This was reported by the press service of the Navy on Facebook.

"Russia continues to violate the norms of international maritime law. Tonight, in the Sea of Azov, the boats of the FSB of the Russian Federation once again made an attempt to obstruct the lawful actions of the submarine group of the Ukrainian Navy, which is on alert. Despite the provocations and purposeful actions of the Russians to restrict free navigation, the tactical boat the group of the Ukrainian Navy continued to carry out the tasks assigned to it, "the message says.

The Navy stressed that Ukrainian sailors will continue to ensure the security of Ukraine from the sea, including in the Sea of Azov, guided exclusively by the norms of international maritime law.

In turn, Boris Babin, a consultant at the Institute of Legislation of the Verkhovna Rada, clarified that the Russian Federation blocked the Kerch Strait for military and state ships of Ukraine and third countries, including the ships of the Navy and the Maritime Guard of Ukraine.

"The Russian Federation does not yet block the strait for commercial shipping. But at the same time, it officially unlawfully blocked, with a coastal warning of the Cartography Department of the Ministry of Defense 152/21, from April 24 to October 2021, the strait for foreign military and state ships traveling from Azov and Azov. Then there is the Navy and the Maritime Security of Ukraine, as well as hydrography, customs officers, fish protection (this part is more theoretically, because such ships have not appeared there for a long time), etc. The "ban" also applies to any third country, "he wrote on Facebook ...

According to Babin, the Russian Federation thereby grossly violated the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea and the 2003 Russian-Ukrainian agreement on the use of the Sea of Azov.

In turn, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine expressed a strong protest in connection with the announcement of the Russian Federation on the closure from next week until October 2021 of part of the Black Sea waters in the direction of the Kerch Strait for warships and state ships of other countries under the pretext of military exercises, and demands to immediately cancel the decision on the illegal closure of certain waters of the Black Sea.

The ministry called on international partners to increase political and diplomatic pressure on the aggressor state in order to cancel the decision to close the water area and stop the escalation in the Azov-Black Sea region.

The statement notes that against the background of the continuing build-up of its military presence along the border with Ukraine on land, the Russian Federation has gone to intensify the escalation at sea.
 
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The United States warned that the situation in Ukraine could suddenly change


The US Embassy in Ukraine has warned its citizens that security conditions in Ukraine could change with little or with out notice. This is stated on the website of the embassy.
 
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Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine protested in connection with the closure of the Russian Federation of the Kerch Strait


The Kremlin intends to close part of the strait next week and until mid-autumn. Kiev calls on partners to increase pressure on the Russian Federation.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine protested over Russia's intention to close part of the Kerch Strait for six months. The corresponding statement was made public on the agency's website on Thursday, April 15.

"The Russian Federation announced the closure from next week until October 2021 of a part of the Black Sea in the direction of the Kerch Strait for warships and state ships of other countries under the pretext of military exercises," the press service of the Foreign Ministry said.

The diplomats said that by their actions the Russian Federation violates the rights of Ukraine as a coastal state, as well as the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

"Russia has gone to intensify the escalation at sea. It is transferring warships from the Caspian Sea and strengthening its military potential in the Azov-Black Sea region, and also, despite the lack of legal grounds, decided to close this water area for warships of other states, in particular Ukraine." , - stated in the ministry.

In this regard, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry called on international partners to increase political and diplomatic pressure on the Russian Federation in order to cancel the decision to close the water area and stop the escalation in the Azov-Black Sea region.

Earlier, the press secretary of the President of the Russian Federation Dmitry Peskov said that the situation in the Black Sea region remains tense, despite the fact that the United States abandoned the decision to send two destroyers to the Black Sea.
 

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The military will receive 30 thousand weapons


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This year, more than 22 billion hryvnia will be spent on arming the Ukrainian army. In particular, they will buy Bayraktar strike drones and Neptune missile systems
This year, the Ukrainian military will receive about 30,000 weapons. 22.5 billion will be spent on this, Deputy Defense Minister Alexander Mironyuk told about this, according to ArmyInform.

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April 10, 2021, 18:01
According to him, 59% of the money from the state defense order (UAH 22.5 billion) this year will be spent on the purchase of weapons and military equipment. Among them are Bayraktar drones, Neptune missile systems, and BTR-4 armored personnel carriers.

In addition, it is planned to purchase missile, anti-tank and high-precision weapons.

"The contract for the construction of a Ukrainian-Turkish corvette is also continuing," said Mironyuk.

According to him, it is planned to spend more than 5% on development work, and 27% on modernization and repair of weapons. For measures aimed at survivability of bases and arsenals, construction of special-purpose facilities for storing ammunition - 9%.
 

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