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Turkish-American relations are currently not in the best condition. Although both countries are members of NATO, their policies and positions on many international issues are very different. The breaking points for the Turks were the Americans’ support for the Kurdish separatists in Syria and the participation of pro-American military in an attempted coup in 2016. There is also the fact that the US refuses to extradite Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, whom Ankara considers to be the main organizer of the coup attempt.
The RAND Corporation: Turkey’s prospects for NATO withdrawal are real
In January 2020, the RAND Corporation published a report entitled “Turkey’s Nationalist Course. Implications for the US-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the US Army.” The document is described as “research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Turkey’s Volatile Dynamics-Implications for the US-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the US Army, sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5 / 7, US Army.”
RAND Analysts see 4 Options for Turkey’s future, 3 of which are unfavorable for the United States:
1.Difficult ally: Turkey continues to be a difficult and sometimes hesitant US ally.
2.Resurgent democracy: an opposition leader or coalition defeats Erdogan and resumes a more Western-oriented foreign and security policy.
3.Strategic balance: Turkey seeks to more openly balance its ties with NATO as well as with allies and partners in Eurasia in Eurasia (in particular, Russia, Iran, and China.
4.Eurasian power: Turkey “formally leaves NATO and pursues closer cooperation and various alignments with partners in Eurasia and the Middle East.”
It is indicative that of the four possible options for the development of Turkey, only one is considered by American analysts as favorable, i.e. “resurgent democracy.” They see it as essential to get rid of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and bring to power someone who does not adhere to a “nationalistic course.” It is noteworthy that American experts consider the loss of control over Incirlik airbase very likely.
Photo: Incirlik air base
The RAND Corporation’s recommendations for the US Armed Forces mainly came down to restoring institutional ties between the Turkish and US military. Apparently, it is the military, in the opinion of these analysts, that should promote “Resurgent democracy.”
Wikipedia Commons
At the same time, the danger to the United States of interaction between the Turkish and Russian military is emphasized over and over. The report highlights the undesirability of interactions between the Russian and Turkish fleet in the Black Sea. They suggest that Turkey needs to be more actively involved in NATO initiatives in this area.
A detailed analysis of Rand Corporation in its main conclusions coincides with the opinion previously expressed by the United States Army Europe’s commander Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. In June 2019, he came up with the idea of creating the Turkey-USA 2.0 alliance.
It is significant that the retired American general is a harsh critic of President Erdogan. He has said explicitly that “there are elements within the Turkish Government That would welcome better relations with the United States.” Ben Hodges welcomes any all success among the Turkish opposition, including, for example, the victory of Ekrem Imamoglu in the mayoral election in Istanbul.
At the same time, the General hints that political changes within Turkey may occur not necessary in the context of democratic elections, claiming that “a lot can happen between now and the upcoming general elections in 2023.”
CFR and neoconservatives: negative solidarity
In addition to the military, civilian analytical centers often speak out about relations with Turkey. Here, on the whole, pessimistic moods dominate.
In November 2018, the Council on States Foreign Relations published a report entitled “Neither the Friend NOR Foe: The of Future of US-Turkey Relations” by Steven Cook.
The main thesis of the report is that the US should “recognize that the United States and Turkey have gone from ambivalent allies to antagonists.” The document noted that the United States should find an alternative to Incirlik Air Base, continue supporting the YPG despite Ankara’s objections and stop cooperation on the F-35 program.
“The US Air Force should relocate its aircraft to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and to other bases in Persian Gulf countries. The tactical nuclear weapons stored at Incirlik should either be brought back to the United States or relocated to more reliable NATO countries.”
Significantly, CFR President Richard Haas holds a similar position.
It is worth recognizing, however, that there are different points of view represented in the CFR. In January of this year, the organizations journal, Foreign Affairs, published the article “The Dangerous Unraveling the of the US-Turkish Alliance,” where the authors argue that “US interests will suffer if the relationship between the two countries breaks down completely, or if Turkey becomes an actual adversary of the United States.” The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)’s Rachel Ellehuus sticks to a similar approach, calling “to apply the required sanctions and arms embargoes” against Turkey, but “in a discriminate way.”
At the same time, the CFR leadership’s position is often expressed by American neoconservatives. They believe that the most dangerous possibility is Ankara abandoning Western democratic values.
Also, according to the famous neocon, the Turkish “strategic pivot toward Russia shifts the balance toward Moscow across the entire Black Sea region, allowing Russia to further solidify its strategic encroachment on Georgia and Ukraine.”
Wikipedia
Therefore, he calls for a strategy exactly opposite to the one advocated by analysts associated with the Pentagon, namely, to isolate Turkey and its armed forces:
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The leading think tanks in the United States, for the most part, assess the prospects for the development of Turkish-American relations negatively. At the same time, in their opinion, there is still potential to alter this trend. However, Ankara is already well on its way toward developing its own independent policy.
The RAND Corporation: Turkey’s prospects for NATO withdrawal are real
In January 2020, the RAND Corporation published a report entitled “Turkey’s Nationalist Course. Implications for the US-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the US Army.” The document is described as “research and analysis conducted as part of a project entitled Turkey’s Volatile Dynamics-Implications for the US-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the US Army, sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5 / 7, US Army.”
RAND Analysts see 4 Options for Turkey’s future, 3 of which are unfavorable for the United States:
1.Difficult ally: Turkey continues to be a difficult and sometimes hesitant US ally.
2.Resurgent democracy: an opposition leader or coalition defeats Erdogan and resumes a more Western-oriented foreign and security policy.
3.Strategic balance: Turkey seeks to more openly balance its ties with NATO as well as with allies and partners in Eurasia in Eurasia (in particular, Russia, Iran, and China.
4.Eurasian power: Turkey “formally leaves NATO and pursues closer cooperation and various alignments with partners in Eurasia and the Middle East.”
It is indicative that of the four possible options for the development of Turkey, only one is considered by American analysts as favorable, i.e. “resurgent democracy.” They see it as essential to get rid of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, and bring to power someone who does not adhere to a “nationalistic course.” It is noteworthy that American experts consider the loss of control over Incirlik airbase very likely.
Photo: Incirlik air base
The US military: prepping for regime change
The RAND Corporation’s recommendations for the US Armed Forces mainly came down to restoring institutional ties between the Turkish and US military. Apparently, it is the military, in the opinion of these analysts, that should promote “Resurgent democracy.”
According to experts, the US military may try to help Turkey develop curricula at its new National Defense University, and Turkey may continue to send officers to schools in the United States. These steps can help improve civil-military relations in Turkey and influence the future course of the Turkish armed forces in such a way that in the long term strengthen bilateral cooperation and NATO cooperation with Turkey.
Wikipedia Commons
At the same time, the danger to the United States of interaction between the Turkish and Russian military is emphasized over and over. The report highlights the undesirability of interactions between the Russian and Turkish fleet in the Black Sea. They suggest that Turkey needs to be more actively involved in NATO initiatives in this area.
A detailed analysis of Rand Corporation in its main conclusions coincides with the opinion previously expressed by the United States Army Europe’s commander Lieutenant General Ben Hodges. In June 2019, he came up with the idea of creating the Turkey-USA 2.0 alliance.
It is significant that the retired American general is a harsh critic of President Erdogan. He has said explicitly that “there are elements within the Turkish Government That would welcome better relations with the United States.” Ben Hodges welcomes any all success among the Turkish opposition, including, for example, the victory of Ekrem Imamoglu in the mayoral election in Istanbul.
At the same time, the General hints that political changes within Turkey may occur not necessary in the context of democratic elections, claiming that “a lot can happen between now and the upcoming general elections in 2023.”
Thus, we can conclude that the American military elites hope to change the geopolitical course of Turkey by changing the government, and admits that this path might not be taken democratically. Given their insistent desire to develop the maximum number of contacts with their Turkish colleagues, we can conclude that circles close to the Pentagon hope to repeat the failed coup attempt in 2016.
CFR and neoconservatives: negative solidarity
In addition to the military, civilian analytical centers often speak out about relations with Turkey. Here, on the whole, pessimistic moods dominate.
In November 2018, the Council on States Foreign Relations published a report entitled “Neither the Friend NOR Foe: The of Future of US-Turkey Relations” by Steven Cook.
The main thesis of the report is that the US should “recognize that the United States and Turkey have gone from ambivalent allies to antagonists.” The document noted that the United States should find an alternative to Incirlik Air Base, continue supporting the YPG despite Ankara’s objections and stop cooperation on the F-35 program.
The author considers it necessary to significantly reduce military cooperation with Turkey. First of all, according to him, the United States should leave Incirlik:
“The US Air Force should relocate its aircraft to Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan and to other bases in Persian Gulf countries. The tactical nuclear weapons stored at Incirlik should either be brought back to the United States or relocated to more reliable NATO countries.”
Significantly, CFR President Richard Haas holds a similar position.
It is worth recognizing, however, that there are different points of view represented in the CFR. In January of this year, the organizations journal, Foreign Affairs, published the article “The Dangerous Unraveling the of the US-Turkish Alliance,” where the authors argue that “US interests will suffer if the relationship between the two countries breaks down completely, or if Turkey becomes an actual adversary of the United States.” The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)’s Rachel Ellehuus sticks to a similar approach, calling “to apply the required sanctions and arms embargoes” against Turkey, but “in a discriminate way.”
At the same time, the CFR leadership’s position is often expressed by American neoconservatives. They believe that the most dangerous possibility is Ankara abandoning Western democratic values.
In the article “It’s Not Us — It’s Him,” Michael Michael Rubin declares that there’s no way to change Turkey except direct pressure. He says that the Turkish army was transformed after the failed coup attempt of 2016 from “a constitutional guardian of secularism” into “a driver for Islamism.”
Also, according to the famous neocon, the Turkish “strategic pivot toward Russia shifts the balance toward Moscow across the entire Black Sea region, allowing Russia to further solidify its strategic encroachment on Georgia and Ukraine.”
Wikipedia
Therefore, he calls for a strategy exactly opposite to the one advocated by analysts associated with the Pentagon, namely, to isolate Turkey and its armed forces:
Like other neoconservatives, Rubin proposes maximum support for Kurdish separatists, the imposition of sanctions against Turkey and the support of the Greek government of Cyprus in their protracted dispute with Turkey.
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Difficult ally or Eurasian enemy? Turkey in the eyes of American think tanks
Turkish-American relations are currently not in the best condition - their policies and positions on many international issues are very different
