Fighter flux: USAF ponders Raptor retirement

Isa Khan · May 31, 2021

A US Air Force tactical-aviation study now underway may have considerable influence on the service’s future force structure and acquisition plans, with the air force already considering earlier-than-planned retirement of the Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor as it attempts to map out future combat-aircraft needs.

In its late-1980s conceptual heyday, up to 1,300 of the United States’ Advanced Tactical Fighter (ATF) were due to be produced, with the US Air Force taking the majority and the navy acquiring the remainder. History, however, intervened, with the end of the Cold War: the USAF went on to order only 187 of the production-standard Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, as the ATF had become known, and the navy went its own way. Today faced with a small fleet suffering from comparatively low availability, substantial support costs and a new pacing threat, the USAF is looking to retire the Raptor earlier than planned as it tries to map out future combat-aircraft needs.

The USAF began a tactical-aviation study in early 2021 to scope its multi-role combat-aircraft requirements, with the F-22 drawdown now looking to begin from 2030, rather than the aircraft remaining in service until the middle of this century as previously planned. The planned successor to the F-22 is the Next Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) project, for which a still-classified demonstrator aircraft is now in flight-test. The USAF has also begun to consider a companion project, Multi-Role-X (MR-X), as a possible successor to some of the Lockheed Martin F-16 fleet.

Threat drivers

Discussing the tactical-aviation study, Lt. Gen. S. Clinton Hinote, the USAF’s deputy chief of staff for strategy, integration and requirements, told Air Force Magazine that drivers included developments in the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) covering missiles and low-observable combat aircraft. Hinote may well have had in mind the combination of the Chengdu J-20 fighter and the PL-15 (CH-AA-10) extended-range air-to-air missile (AAM). The PLAAF’s 9th and 1st Air Brigades have begun to outfit with the J-20, with the US Department of Defense projecting that up to six brigades could convert to the type by 2025.

The PL-15 is integrated on PLAAF fighter aircraft fitted with active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar – the Chengdu J-10C, Shenyang J-16 and the J-20 – but not on legacy types fitted with mechanically scanned array radar. The status of an upgrade to fit the J-11B with an AESA remains unclear. The PL-15 missile, which has a fly-out range in excess of 200 kilometres, is believed also to be fitted with an AESA seeker. China furthermore is working on a missile thought to be designated the PL-16, which has similar performance to the PL-15 but allows six rather than four to be carried in the J-20’s internal weapons bay. Russia, belatedly, is also now upgrading its AAM inventory with the likes of the R-77-1 (RS-AA-12B) and the still-in-development K-77M (RS-AA-X-12C).

Missile internal loadouts, missile engagement range and, more broadly, fighter-aircraft combat persistence all appear to be forcing factors in the US tactical-aviation study. In concert with the NGAD and the MR-X, the USAF is working on the AIM-260 Joint Advanced Tactical Missile as a successor to the medium-range AIM-120. The AIM-260 is intended to provide a greater range than the AIM-120, with an increased internal loadout also a likely goal. The USAF also appears to be looking at using the F-15EX Eagle II to carry an ‘outsize … air-to-air weapon’, according to Air Force Magazine.

This could be intended to allow the F-15EX to be used to engage high-value aviation assets (HVAA) – such as early-warning or intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance aircraft – at very long range, and to keep the non-stealthy F-15EX as far back as possible. The appearance of imagery of what looked to be an SM-6 round undergoing carriage trials on a US Navy Boeing F/A-18F Super Hornet may suggest that the navy is thinking along similar lines. The SM-6 was developed as a surface-to-air weapon, and an air-to-air variant would offer considerable range against an HVAA-size platform.

The X factor

In helping to provide the financial headroom for NGAD and MR-X, the USAF is also looking to withdraw from service its F-15C/D Eagle fleet, pulling by 2026 the remaining 209 F-15C and 24 F-15D models along with 124 of the earliest remaining F-16 variants in USAF service, according to Air Force Magazine. While the F-35A was presumed to be the replacement for all the USAF’s F-16s, the emergence of a potential MR-X programme casts this in a different light, as the USAF reviews the kinds of tactical air power it requires. And the F-35 has been hit by some of the same kinds of issues when it comes to logistics, support and upgrade costs as the F-22, though the aircraft is still early in its service life and efforts are under way to address these. The USAF already has more F-35As than the total production run of F-22s, with more than 250 now delivered. The question may be to what extent an MR-X project might eat into the USAF’s originally projected offtake number for the A model of the aircraft. Developments being pursued of uninhabited combat air vehicles could also further dent the USAF’s planned purchase of 1,763 aircraft.

While the tactical-aviation study that will help inform decisions on F-35 numbers, MR-X and NGAD has yet to be concluded, its potential influence – on the USAF’s future force structure, acquisition plans, and the service’s resulting capabilities to prevail in a highly contested air environment – is already clear.