India Indian Ballistic Missile Programs

Gessler

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There is nothing at all to suggest Dhanush is capable of, or ever intended, to target ships. Or land for that matter if speaking of intention.

SRBMs of this type are effective against air bases, ports & major infrastructure only when launched in salvos of AT LEAST 5-10 missiles, taking into account that some of them will inevitably fail to reach the target. No way 1-2 missiles with conventional payloads launched from ships can have any substantial effect. To strike at moving targets like ships you need two things:

a) highly maneuverable RV
b) a short flight time i.e. high velocity boost stage

The Prithvi (and by extension Dhanush) has neither. The Prithvi RV was designed in the 80s and changed little since then (other than in terms of various explosive payloads developed for it), and that means it preceded the first Indian MaRV (Agni-2 in 90s). Secondly, the fact that it uses a liquid-fueled booster means it simply cannot achieve the kind of ascent & boost-glide velocities that solid-fueled missiles can attain within the same amount of time.

The way I see it, the Dhanush had simply one purpose. To serve as a target missile for BMD tests by launching from the deep sea (beyond the distance where one could reasonably drag a pontoon) and allowing AAD/PAD ABMs to intercept over the ocean, alleviating the risk of debris falling on land (and also allowing ABMs to function as they would against enemy BMs launched over the same distance as they would in war time).
 

Nilgiri

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There is nothing at all to suggest Dhanush is capable of, or ever intended, to target ships. Or land for that matter if speaking of intention.

SRBMs of this type are effective against air bases, ports & major infrastructure only when launched in salvos of AT LEAST 5-10 missiles, taking into account that some of them will inevitably fail to reach the target. No way 1-2 missiles with conventional payloads launched from ships can have any substantial effect. To strike at moving targets like ships you need two things:

a) highly maneuverable RV
b) a short flight time i.e. high velocity boost stage

The Prithvi (and by extension Dhanush) has neither. The Prithvi RV was designed in the 80s and changed little since then (other than in terms of various explosive payloads developed for it), and that means it preceded the first Indian MaRV (Agni-2 in 90s). Secondly, the fact that it uses a liquid-fueled booster means it simply cannot achieve the kind of ascent & boost-glide velocities that solid-fueled missiles can attain within the same amount of time.

The way I see it, the Dhanush had simply one purpose. To serve as a target missile for BMD tests by launching from the deep sea (beyond the distance where one could reasonably drag a pontoon) and allowing AAD/PAD ABMs to intercept over the ocean, alleviating the risk of debris falling on land (and also allowing ABMs to function as they would against enemy BMs launched over the same distance as they would in war time).

I agree overall.

It was definitely primarily a test bed (with what was available at the time) to probably give a firm realised reference for the more robust+reliable systems and networks taking shape now. There are all kind of things you come across that you didn't think of when you do early non-conventional venture of a system with later sustained requirement in mind.
 

Rajendra Chola

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@Nilgiri @Paro et al.....

A tender is out calling for the development of a 140 ton chassis missile launcher likely for the newest member of the Agni family. View attachment 2055

It will be significantly bigger than the Agni V. The Agni V itself is no small thing :
View attachment 2057
View attachment 2058

Agni V is a 50 ton missile with ~8, 000 km range. The new one, probably named Agni VI will be 70 tons with range around 12, 000 km. Like the Agni V, the new missile will also be fired from a cannister. The cannister design has been out for a year :
View attachment 2054

Look at the size: 20 m in length and 3.2 m in diameter. The Agni V, for comparison, is 17.5 m in length and 2 m in diameter. The new ICBM is longer & fatter than Agni V. The larger diameter will allow packing in MIRVs & decoys. We might even see some Hypersonic Glide Vehicles in the future, work is ongoing there.

2 years back this photo of a tractor of Transporter Erector Launcher(TEL) came up. It was under going trials in an Army artillery range at that time. The wheel arrangement is pretty unique and unlike anything I've seen before. My personal take is that this was made in a DRDO-Indian auto-industry collaboration. You can see the DRDO logo on the cabin door. Then it suddenly disappeared, don't know what happened to it after that. Maybe this truck was meant to carry the new ICBM, or maybe its just a prototype. It looks a little too small to carry that missile.
View attachment 2056

It makes sense in a way. The truck is ready, the cannister is ready, the missile is ready for flight tests I suppose. The only thing missing is the erector and launcher.

I think the Agni 6 is an MIRVed A5 with similar range. As far as I know and understand, the scientific community has not received clearance to test very long range missiles. Even 8k got A5 is possible with an smaller yield payload. So A6 has to be heavy/probably bit long to carry more payload for the same distance A5 can travel.

Or the new technologies developed for Agni Prime project which reduced the weight of the missiles significantly can also be employed.
 

Gessler

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I think the Agni 6 is an MIRVed A5 with similar range. As far as I know and understand, the scientific community has not received clearance to test very long range missiles. Even 8k got A5 is possible with an smaller yield payload. So A6 has to be heavy/probably bit long to carry more payload for the same distance A5 can travel.

Or the new technologies developed for Agni Prime project which reduced the weight of the missiles significantly can also be employed.

the scientific community has not received clearance to test very long range missiles.

Agreed. There is pretty obviously some understanding in place not to exceed the 5,500-km mark for land-based missiles (which would officially make them ICBMs) so its very unlikely A6 would be advertised as anything more than a 5,000-km 'LRBM' on paper.

Technology-wise its going to be an evolutionary improvement over the A5 (who's tech is now already a decade-old), mainly in the fields of materials, propulsion, burn efficiency & overall reduction of kg-to-km ratio. The improvements seen in recent A-1P are pretty substantial, so I would feel confident in saying even a missile that's same overall size & weight (margin of few meters & ~6 tons) can achieve a significantly longer potential range than A5 ever theoretically could (inversely proportional to payload capacity as well).

The old slides I believe are still relevant in showing the general direction of A6 development:

a5a6.jpg


Roughly same size & small but significant increase in weight (5-10 tons), but same quoted range (on paper).

The biggest improvement will be felt in the payload capacity with MIRV bus - where we may see a THREE-FOLD increase in capacity. The A6 is very likely to be extremely similar in profile, mass & payload capacity to the Trident-II D5 missile. If we make the assumption that India's missile tech of today is approaching that of the US in late-80s/early-90s (in terms of propulsion efficiency mainly) then we could make the assumption that A6 should theoretically be capable of similar maximum potential range as the Trident-II i.e. about 12,000-km.

The only Indian missiles that can officially qualify as ICBMs would have to be the upcoming SLBMs - and only because they need to have at least 6,000-km on paper to show major Chinese cities as within reach from the wider Indian Ocean (outside of Bay of Bengal), and the slides definitely show that intent, though they too can theoretically be capable of much farther ranges:

photo-2021-03-14-02-28-29.jpg
 

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India to conduct first user trial of Agni-V missile​

While single-warhead missiles are generally launched against one target, the MIRVed missiles can dispense warheads against multiple targets.

BHUBANESWAR: India is set to conduct the first user trial of nuke capable intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM) Agni-V signalling its early induction in the armed forces. Elaborate preparation has started at a defence facility off Odisha coast for the mission by the Strategic Forces Command of Indian Army. As per the schedule learnt by TNIE, the 5,000-km range missile is likely to be flight-tested on September 23.

Initially planned to be inducted in 2020 after the hat-trick pre-induction trials in 2018, the process was reportedly delayed due to Covid-19 pandemic that affected some important tests of the missile with multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRV). The mission has been planned close on the heels of the successful trial of Agni Prime missile, the first of the new class of Agni series of missiles, developed by DRDO. The three-stage solid-fuelled weapon with advanced guidance and new generation propulsion was fired with multiple independently targetable reentry warheads on June 28.

Defence sources said the next trial of Agni-V missile assumes significance as it may be equipped with the MIRV capable of carrying multiple warheads. Though the MIRV capability of the missile was secretly tested during a multi-satellite launch, no live launch has been conducted so far. “For the first time, the indigenous MIRV technology was tested successfully in Agni P missile with the weapon delivering two manoeuvrable warheads at two separate locations. The MIRV capability of Agni-V will give India the much needed deterrence,” said the sources.

While single-warhead missiles are generally launched against one target, the MIRVed missiles can dispense warheads against multiple targets. The technology will minimise the requirement of a number of missiles providing an edge in battle preparedness.A senior defence official said the induction process of the most potent game changer Agni-V has begun and the successful user trial would pave the way for its serial production. The canisterised missile is equipped with a ring laser gyroscope based inertial navigation system and micro inertial navigation system.

Developed by DRDO, the missile is capable of hitting targets in all Asian countries and parts of Africa and Europe. With a wiring of around seven-km, the 17-metre long, 2-metre wide, three-stage, solid-fuelled missile can carry a payload of 1.5 tonne and weighs around 50 tonne. India is the eighth country to have intercontinental ballistic missiles after the US, UK, Russia, China, France, Israel and North Korea.
 

Nilgiri

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Wasn't the rumored ICBM called Surya?

Placeholder name when they hadn't quite figured out how Agni would evolve program wise.

It is subsumed now under Agni 6.

Honestly Agni 6 is low priority....as we do not really need that land-component w.r.t resource allocation....given Agni 5 covers pretty much we need already from land.

Far better for India to allocate and produce more in SLBM domain and MIRV those....and make the SSBNs as survivable as possible.

Saving money from Agni 6 and deploying there instead would be more optimal approach IMO.
 

Gessler

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Placeholder name when they hadn't quite figured out how Agni would evolve program wise.

It is subsumed now under Agni 6.

Honestly Agni 6 is low priority....as we do not really need that land-component w.r.t resource allocation....given Agni 5 covers pretty much we need already from land.

Far better for India to allocate and produce more in SLBM domain and MIRV those....and make the SSBNs as survivable as possible.

Saving money from Agni 6 and deploying there instead would be more optimal approach IMO.

Agni-6 is basically "Agni-5 Perfected".

Yes, A5 covers our currently required range envelope, but only with unitary warheads. Even this supposed MIRV test* is likely to only allow reduced-range.

We need A6 if we want to throw any kind of decent MIRV payload (like 6 x 500kg) over that same 5,000-km range. Against a country with an intent for established BMD capabilities + established intent for countervalue/counterforce arsenal like China, only a MIRVed missile (for both land & sea launch) is likely to provide true deterrence.

* I'll only believe it when I see it, not the first time media has been wrong about MIRV...though now is as good a time as any to begin the process of testing the MIRV bus (nevermind the reduced range) considering the range ship INS Dhruv is now fully operational.
 

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Agni-6 is basically "Agni-5 Perfected".

Yes, A5 covers our currently required range envelope, but only with unitary warheads. Even this supposed MIRV test* is likely to only allow reduced-range.

We need A6 if we want to throw any kind of decent MIRV payload (like 6 x 500kg) over that same 5,000-km range. Against a country with an intent for established BMD capabilities + established intent for countervalue/counterforce arsenal like China, only a MIRVed missile (for both land & sea launch) is likely to provide true deterrence.

* I'll only believe it when I see it, not the first time media has been wrong about MIRV...though now is as good a time as any to begin the process of testing the MIRV bus (nevermind the reduced range) considering the range ship INS Dhruv is now fully operational.

I partially agree and normally (if India was a higher tier nuclear power) I would fully agree with you.

But India is a warhead deficit and (relative) missile surplus country.

It has to make each warhead as survivable as possible....and nothing beats an SSBN for that.

I'm not saying scrap A-6 or something, but it should come 2nd to getting MIRV SLBM (given India is also SSBN deficit)....given the warhead numbers and what the survivability is for above water assets/facilities regarding them (ceterus paribus w.r.t opponents).

It is after that priority is addressed, further expanding MIRV capacity for land based missiles should be accomplished to have best chance to defeat any extensive BMD opponents may have.

As much of the triad should be underwater mobile as possible IMO for maximum deterrence given its apex survivability.

Now I am of course assuming everything "race circuit wise" is starting at same time (for sake of argument).

But in reality, if say A-6 is 90% done and needs 10% more for the finish.....and say the reverse for SLBM MIRV....of course it makes lot more sense to finish A-6 first and have it in hand.

This is probably much closer to the present situation in India...if one compares the current K-4 energy, #stages and volume envelope with its peers in other navies...to consider what might be timeline for K-5 and K-6 (MIRV I believe) and also considering the timeline for the SSBNs themselves.
 

Gessler

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I partially agree and normally (if India was a higher tier nuclear power) I would fully agree with you.

But India is a warhead deficit and (relative) missile surplus country.

It has to make each warhead as survivable as possible....and nothing beats an SSBN for that.

I'm not saying scrap A-6 or something, but it should come 2nd to getting MIRV SLBM (given India is also SSBN deficit)....given the warhead numbers and what the survivability is for above water assets/facilities regarding them (ceterus paribus w.r.t opponents).

It is after that priority is addressed, further expanding MIRV capacity for land based missiles should be accomplished to have best chance to defeat any extensive BMD opponents may have.

As much of the triad should be underwater mobile as possible IMO for maximum deterrence given its apex survivability.

Now I am of course assuming everything "race circuit wise" is starting at same time (for sake of argument).

But in reality, if say A-6 is 90% done and needs 10% more for the finish.....and say the reverse for SLBM MIRV....of course it makes lot more sense to finish A-6 first and have it in hand.

This is probably much closer to the present situation in India...if one compares the current K-4 energy, #stages and volume envelope with its peers in other navies...to consider what might be timeline for K-5 and K-6 (MIRV I believe) and also considering the timeline for the SSBNs themselves.

True - SSBN/SLBMs should receive priority.

However, the enrichment activities in India have seen a massive expansion post-2013. Think about it, we need approx 200 new warheads just for the S-5 class.

There is no way this program is going ahead until & unless there has been an increase in production of both WG-U & WG-Pu.
 

Lonewolf

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True - SSBN/SLBMs should receive priority.

However, the enrichment activities in India have seen a massive expansion post-2013. Think about it, we need approx 200 new warheads just for the S-5 class.

There is no way this program is going ahead until & unless there has been an increase in production of both WG-U & WG-Pu.
I think we already have agni 6 or whatever you call it in advanced phase .


It isn't surya etc anything that's all rumors .

It's a missile with 3 ton payload for 5500 km with composite stage and mirv capabilities and most probably it is k 5 itself . K4 is a state of art missile in it's class , you can compare it to best in range vs weight , that's why agni 1p is a beast .

Our future ground based fleet would be

Prahar /pranash Upto 400 km ,
Pralay Upto 700 km
Shaurya and follow on 700-1500 km
Agni 1 p 2000 km
K5 based missile 5000-8000 km
Agni 3p for 2000-5000 km (if exist) otherwise K4 variant

Rest all including agni 5 are going to be like good ol'boys , above ones will be our tungsten arrows .

Sea based is K5 and K4 , sagarika is for intermittent role .
 

Nilgiri

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Rajendra Chola

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5 spies were caught. I think that's delaying the user flight trials.
They are just contractors and you can find same low grade catches after every couple of years . I am still not sure why they expose them just use them to feed the information they wish to
 

Lonewolf

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I think something is going on ,if you keep tab on news , more than hundred people have been caught For spying etc in last few months .

It don't seem so normal
They are just contractors and you can find same low grade catches after every couple of years . I am still not sure why they expose them just use them to feed the information they wish to
 

Gessler

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Interesting stuff...

FBeuGZ9XoAcO2i3.png


photo_2021-10-12_18-15-45.jpg


The top image seems to show a 4-MIRV configuration...that would be in line with the roadmap shown in the old slides. Can't really tell if this is the A6 land-based missile or K5 SLBM though (they both will have extremely similar profiles).
 

Gessler

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I would argue that any further kinetic testing of ASAT weapons on our part is no longer necessary. Any further tests that seek to validate new technologies (such as a Multi-Kill Vehicle rumored to be in development by DRDO) can be done so using Point-In-Space testing like what Russia does, where simulated targets are hit instead of real ones. Four countries (USSR/Russia, US, China & India) have already conducted kinetic destruction of orbiting satellites - and that is already 4 countries too many. The risk of debris posing serious threats to space assets is indeed high and must not be exacerbated to the maximum extent possible.

Replying here with regard to something I referenced in the QUAD thread, specifically:

"...Any further tests that seek to validate new technologies (such as a Multi-Kill Vehicle rumored to be in development by DRDO) can be done so using Point-In-Space testing..."

The original post is available here:


The first evidence of a MKV (now also called Multi-Object Kill Vehicle or MOKV) being under development by Indian agencies came with a presentation made by the then-chairman of DRDO, Dr. VK Saraswat at the IIT-Bombay university back in 2014, so it was public release.

Ei-qr_6U8AEB0lu.jpg


MKV/MOKVs are basically like MIRVs but for objects that are outside the atmosphere. They are thoroughly dual-use in terms of having applications against both satellites & incoming ballistic missile threats, just as any ASAT weapon is also a BMD weapon.

Following are images of Lockheed Martin & Raytheon's developments of MOKVs, primarily for the Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) program:

Mkv-L_hover_test.jpg


58e422e6a8307.image.jpg


The XSV-1 aka PDV Mk-2 tested by India is roughly in the same ballpark as the GBI as far as size/weight is concerned, nice artwork by Maxima Vigilantia comparing the sizes:

ExpSOAVUYAIdno5.jpg


(reason why PDV-KKV is so big is because the 2nd stage motor is integral to the assembly, plus the DACS thrusters are probably less efficient compared to the American models, requiring more liquid fuel storage).

* KKV = Kinetic Kill Vehicle
EKV = Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle

Both basically the same thing, different names

Why do I read this much into some obscure presentation made over 7 years ago? Because this was also the first time that an ASAT development was publicly hinted at, and that turned out to be an undeniable reality 5 years later (2019):

Ei-p0A3U8AALXpI.jpg


...of course a lot has changed with regard to the configuration of the ASAT missile since then, for example we switched to a K4 SLBM-based boost stage instead of one derived from the old Agni-II. The prospective images of future land-based & submarine-based deterrence (Agni-6 and K5 SLBM) posted in the thread before were also from the same presentation.

@Nilgiri @Gautam @Paro @Cabatli_53 @T-123456 @Saithan @Kartal1 @Lonewolf @Zapper
 

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Replying here with regard to something I referenced in the QUAD thread, specifically:

"...Any further tests that seek to validate new technologies (such as a Multi-Kill Vehicle rumored to be in development by DRDO) can be done so using Point-In-Space testing..."

The original post is available here:


The first evidence of a MKV (now also called Multi-Object Kill Vehicle or MOKV) being under development by Indian agencies came with a presentation made by the then-chairman of DRDO, Dr. VK Saraswat at the IIT-Bombay university back in 2014, so it was public release.

View attachment 33895

MKV/MOKVs are basically like MIRVs but for objects that are outside the atmosphere. They are thoroughly dual-use in terms of having applications against both satellites & incoming ballistic missile threats, just as any ASAT weapon is also a BMD weapon.

Following are images of Lockheed Martin & Raytheon's developments of MOKVs, primarily for the Ground Based Interceptor (GBI) program:

View attachment 33896

View attachment 33897

The XSV-1 aka PDV Mk-2 tested by India is roughly in the same ballpark as the GBI as far as size/weight is concerned, nice artwork by Maxima Vigilantia comparing the sizes:

View attachment 33898

(reason why PDV-KKV is so big is because the 2nd stage motor is integral to the assembly, plus the DACS thrusters are probably less efficient compared to the American models, requiring more liquid fuel storage).

* KKV = Kinetic Kill Vehicle
EKV = Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle

Both basically the same thing, different names

Why do I read this much into some obscure presentation made over 7 years ago? Because this was also the first time that an ASAT development was publicly hinted at, and that turned out to be an undeniable reality 5 years later (2019):

View attachment 33900

...of course a lot has changed with regard to the configuration of the ASAT missile since then, for example we switched to a K4 SLBM-based boost stage instead of one derived from the old Agni-II. The prospective images of future land-based & submarine-based deterrence (Agni-6 and K5 SLBM) posted in the thread before were also from the same presentation.

@Nilgiri @Gautam @Paro @Cabatli_53 @T-123456 @Saithan @Kartal1 @Lonewolf @Zapper
@Gessler what do you think about satellite based mkv for anti sat role ? A swarm attacking the enemy sat while mother sat guide them .

Could help in case of war ,where satellite is pre programmed about which satellite to target and if there are decoy too then we still have few kV for original sat
 

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