Japan India vows to back Japan's plan to develop 'Counter-Strike' capabilities aimed at China

Gessler

Contributor
Think Tank Analyst
Messages
478
Reactions
6 1,036
Nation of residence
India
Nation of origin
India
New Delhi: Sending a strong signal to China, India Tuesday said that it would support Japan’s plan to acquire counter-strike missiles as part of security and defence cooperation between the two countries.

The development came at the second round of the 2+2 ministerial meeting Thursday held in Tokyo between External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh with their Japanese counterparts Yoshimasa Hayashi and Yasukazu Hamada respectively.

india-japan-agencis.jpg

“While expressing its resolve to examine all options necessary for national defence — including so-called ‘counter-strike capabilities’ — the Japanese side expressed its determination to fundamentally reinforce Japan’s defence capabilities within the next five years and secure a substantial increase of Japan’s defence budget needed to effect it,” said the joint statement that was issued after the 2+2 meeting.

It added: “Acknowledging Japan’s determination to reinforce its defence capabilities, the Indian side expressed its support to work towards enhanced security and defence cooperation”.

This comes at a time when there’s an intense debate in Japan on whether Tokyo should go for counter-strike capabilities under its revised National Security Strategy, which many in that country oppose.

Japans-ATLA-Developing-Hypersonic-Anti-Ship-Missile-1-1024x562.jpg

Japan's 'counter-strike' capabilities include development of Hypersonic cruise missiles & glide vehicles

India and Japan share a Special Strategic and Global Partnership.

Under the counter-strike capabilities, Japan intends to boost its air defence system in view of its ongoing tensions with China, the Russia-Ukraine war, and North Korea’s frequent launches of ballistic missiles, Hamada had said last month.

Japan’s defence ministry has plans to increase its budget by up to 3 per cent in fiscal 2023 compared to 2022. Apart from the National Security Strategy, the Fumio Kishida government has plans to revise Japan’s ‘National Defense Program Guidelines’ — the country’s defence policy — and the ‘Medium Term Defense Program’, which sets forth Japan’s defence build-up capability and procurement policy for the next five years.

“Enhancing the Defence Equipment and Technological Cooperation between India and Japan is one of our key priority areas. In our meeting today, I had the opportunity to propose engagements in emerging and critical technological domains,” said Defence Minister Rajnath Singh in his press statement in Tokyo.

Singh and Hamada also held talks separately in which the Japanese defence minister spoke about his country’s plan “to fundamentally reinforce the defense capabilities of Japan through the formulation of National Security Strategy and other document,” said a statement issued by Japan’s Ministry of Defence.

India and Japan Thursday also decided that the air forces of both sides will soon be conducting an ‘India-Japan Fighter Exercise’ even as they planned to “make continuous efforts towards more complex and sophisticated bilateral exercise.”

‘Sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations’


Aiming at China, both sides once again asserted the need to adhere to a rules-based global order that respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of nations, and emphasised the need for all countries to seek peaceful resolution of disputes in accordance with international law without resorting to threats, the use of force or any attempt to change the status quo unilaterally.

“Strengthening our foreign policy coordination is essential to realise the true benefits of the substantial convergence in our interests and outlook. They obviously concentrate on the Indo-Pacific but extend to many other regional, global and multilateral platforms as well. The exchange of views on the crucial situations facing the international community today was particularly useful,” said Jaishankar.

E9MQsmdUYAUlUUh.jpg

IAF Su-30MKIs will participate in combat exercises with JASDF, giving the Japanese side training experience against the Flanker platform, several of which are operated by China

In this regard, both sides reiterated the need to work closely with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to have a “free and open Indo-Pacific that is inclusive and resilient, based on the rule of law and free from coercion.”

The ministers had a “frank and fruitful discussion on the regional and global issues of mutual interests and concerns”, particularly those in the Indo-Pacific as well as Ukraine, the joint statement said.

(Edited by Uttara Ramaswamy)

 

Gessler

Contributor
Think Tank Analyst
Messages
478
Reactions
6 1,036
Nation of residence
India
Nation of origin
India
My comments:

While the terms 'counter-strike' and 'counter-value' are invariably linked to nuclear weapons in any other context, it appears that at least so far the Japanese are only hinting at a conventional long-range strike capability with cruise missiles. The procurement in question is this:


Keeping in mind Japan's capability to go nuclear on short notice, I think nobody can realistically dismiss that such a long-range strike capability, once obtained, will always remain conventionally-armed.

In my opinion, these strike missiles (both the subsonic ones being talked about above and hypersonic ones in future) will be made to be nuclear-capable platforms, conventionally armed now and in the foreseeable future, but able to be mated with the nuclear warheads as and when required.

The question now is, why the Japanese side considered it important to make this part of the agenda in the high-level meeting with Indian counterparts, and why India felt it important to pledge support for the same...considering the missile project (modified Type-12) is not a joint program, and in any event, the 1,000-km range of the system is not long enough to reach India, so no reason to think that the purpose of the mention was to allay any fears the Indian side may have regarding Japan's re-armament.

Could the two countries be attempting to send a signal to China that nuclear weapons-related cooperation between India & Japan is not off the table? That India would/could be willing to allow cold-testing of nukes meant for/designed by Japan to be carried out on its soil? Using its established infrastructure (which is NOT regulated/checked by anyone as India is not an NPT member)?

We are in for some interesting times ahead.

@Nilgiri
 

Nilgiri

Stoic Realist
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
7,222
Reactions
18 14,314
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
My comments:

While the terms 'counter-strike' and 'counter-value' are invariably linked to nuclear weapons in any other context, it appears that at least so far the Japanese are only hinting at a conventional long-range strike capability with cruise missiles. The procurement in question is this:


Keeping in mind Japan's capability to go nuclear on short notice, I think nobody can realistically dismiss that such a long-range strike capability, once obtained, will always remain conventionally-armed.

In my opinion, these strike missiles (both the subsonic ones being talked about above and hypersonic ones in future) will be made to be nuclear-capable platforms, conventionally armed now and in the foreseeable future, but able to be mated with the nuclear warheads as and when required.

The question now is, why the Japanese side considered it important to make this part of the agenda in the high-level meeting with Indian counterparts, and why India felt it important to pledge support for the same...considering the missile project (modified Type-12) is not a joint program, and in any event, the 1,000-km range of the system is not long enough to reach India, so no reason to think that the purpose of the mention was to allay any fears the Indian side may have regarding Japan's re-armament.

Could the two countries be attempting to send a signal to China that nuclear weapons-related cooperation between India & Japan is not off the table? That India would/could be willing to allow cold-testing of nukes meant for/designed by Japan to be carried out on its soil? Using its established infrastructure (which is NOT regulated/checked by anyone as India is not an NPT member)?

We are in for some interesting times ahead.

@Nilgiri

Judging by the diagram in the original post, maybe Japan wants to collaborate with HSTDV program. India in exchange can benefit say from sensors and integration that Japan+US will be advancing this decade to have the best real time picture precision and scale that will maximise the lethality of the strike systems they support.

Having an arsenal of such platforms from say the 2030s onwards will prove crucial in a Chinese first strike scenario as there can be as immediate assured retaliation as possible (including terminal stage penetration capability of long range platforms) without having to take devastating losses on your own counter-strike assets and general assets. These will also be a potent first-strike capability themselves. This will shore up Japanese deterrence at the apex level.

As for the nuclear angle, I think Japan will proceed in concert with the US regarding that (there has always been speculation they have designs ready and cold testing already done with the US, ready to go for post-NPT world)....I don't see them approaching India for that stuff, but who knows for sure.

@AlphaMike @Yasar @Paro @fire starter @Milspec @Zapper et al.
 

Paro

Well-known member
Messages
349
Reactions
510
Nation of residence
India
My comments:

While the terms 'counter-strike' and 'counter-value' are invariably linked to nuclear weapons in any other context, it appears that at least so far the Japanese are only hinting at a conventional long-range strike capability with cruise missiles. The procurement in question is this:


Keeping in mind Japan's capability to go nuclear on short notice, I think nobody can realistically dismiss that such a long-range strike capability, once obtained, will always remain conventionally-armed.

In my opinion, these strike missiles (both the subsonic ones being talked about above and hypersonic ones in future) will be made to be nuclear-capable platforms, conventionally armed now and in the foreseeable future, but able to be mated with the nuclear warheads as and when required.

The question now is, why the Japanese side considered it important to make this part of the agenda in the high-level meeting with Indian counterparts, and why India felt it important to pledge support for the same...considering the missile project (modified Type-12) is not a joint program, and in any event, the 1,000-km range of the system is not long enough to reach India, so no reason to think that the purpose of the mention was to allay any fears the Indian side may have regarding Japan's re-armament.

Could the two countries be attempting to send a signal to China that nuclear weapons-related cooperation between India & Japan is not off the table? That India would/could be willing to allow cold-testing of nukes meant for/designed by Japan to be carried out on its soil? Using its established infrastructure (which is NOT regulated/checked by anyone as India is not an NPT member)?

We are in for some interesting times ahead.

@Nilgiri
The nuclear angle really doesnt make sense as japan had at least 9 tons of plutonium set aside since a decade ago to make around 1000 warheads in few weeks time. I wouldn’t be surprised if they already have some working prototypes ready to go.

On top of that, US has offered to stage their WMDs in japan like they did in nato during the cold war and japan as agreed under table ofcourse.

Whats more interesting is japan asked US and Taiwan to share their war plan to defend against China but the US didn’t share it. They wanted to keep it a secret even from japan, instead they wanted to create another one with japan for that eventually back in October 2021.


 
Last edited:

Gessler

Contributor
Think Tank Analyst
Messages
478
Reactions
6 1,036
Nation of residence
India
Nation of origin
India
The nuclear angle really doesnt make sense as japan had at least 9 tons of plutonium set aside since a decade ago to make around 1000 warheads in few weeks time. I wouldn’t be surprised if they already have some working prototypes ready to go.

As I said, if at all there is cooperation in the nuclear weapons field, it will not be in terms of supply of material - Japan has enough of that.

It would be in terms of offering infrastructure for off-site cold testing. The Japanese public is not likely to be okay with testing close to cities and Japan's geography doesn't allow for much open countryside, they don't have a vast empty desert like we do. It's the reason UK tested its nukes in Australia & why France tested in Algeria.

Besides, the only non-NPT members who could be willing to help with that are India & Israel.
 

Nilgiri

Stoic Realist
Moderator
Aviation Specialist
Messages
7,222
Reactions
18 14,314
Nation of residence
Canada
Nation of origin
India
As I said, if at all there is cooperation in the nuclear weapons field, it will not be in terms of supply of material - Japan has enough of that.

It would be in terms of offering infrastructure for off-site cold testing. The Japanese public is not likely to be okay with testing close to cities and Japan's geography doesn't allow for much open countryside, they don't have a vast empty desert like we do. It's the reason UK tested its nukes in Australia & why France tested in Algeria.

Besides, the only non-NPT members who could be willing to help with that are India & Israel.

US also has not ratified CTBT...to likely leave this door open as well.

My gut tells me that US will be the one that is heavily involved in Japan's N-weapons program if it happens.

Japan is simply heavily entrenched in US security apparatus and strategy for last century and also this one.
 

Gessler

Contributor
Think Tank Analyst
Messages
478
Reactions
6 1,036
Nation of residence
India
Nation of origin
India
US also has not ratified CTBT...to likely leave this door open as well.

My gut tells me that US will be the one that is heavily involved in Japan's N-weapons program if it happens.

Japan is simply heavily entrenched in US security apparatus and strategy for last century and also this one.

So is South Korea...but when the time came to obtain tech the Americans weren't willing to share i.e. missiles, they went to Russia of all countries for assistance.

(KMSAM is a modified 9M96E and Hyunmoo-2 is a modified Iskander-E...the same tech tree has now spawned SK's submarine-launched ballistic missile developments)

Note that I don't dismiss that there won't be a heavy US hand behind any Japanese nuclear program...but that it could in fact be advantageous for the US to allow this sort of cooperation between JP & IN - that way, if Japan decides to become hostile to American interests at some point in the future, the blame for 'nuclearizing' Japan can be leveled on India and Uncle Sam can wash his hands.

++

On a different note, I'm of the opinion that it should be India's prerogative to nuclear-arm one or more of China's East Asian adversaries - Japan, Taiwan or Vietnam. The Chinese crossed a red line when they did us the favour of helping Pakistan achieve nuclear weapons, and we are yet to pay them back in kind.
 

Follow us on social media

Top Bottom