Indonesia’s impulsive arms trade

Nilgiri

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Indonesia’s impulsive arms trade
Window shopping for weapons is not military modernisation
MUHAMAD ARIF, TANGGUH CHAIRIL


There are many reasons behind the push for a modernisation of Indonesia’s defence, but an impulsive approach to procuring weapons could cause problems for the country down the line, Muhamad Arif and Tangguh Chairil write.

Indonesia’s impulsive attempts to purchase jet fighters has gained attention over recent months. In the latest development, Indonesian Defence Minister Prabowo Subianto approached his Austrian counterpart to express his interest to acquire the latter’s 15 Eurofighter Typhoons.

Critics have found the decision puzzling, and it is seen at odds with the government’s commitment to avoid purchasing second-hand weaponry. Members of parliament, meanwhile, have said that they have not been consulted about the policy.

Aside from the Typhoons, Indonesia has already had various types of fighters in its list of procurement. Indonesia is co-developing new KF-X fighters with South Korea, a project which has just got back on track. It is also still committed to purchasing Russia’s Su-35 fighters, despite the threat of American sanctions. There were also reports that the Air Force was interested in buying two squadrons of F-16 Viper from the United States and that Minister of Defence Prabowo Subianto was interested in buying 48 of France’s Dassault Rafale.

So why has this happened? Well, Indonesia’s weapons procurement and its broader foreign and security policy are always a result of a complex interplay between external and domestic factors.

Like other countries in the region with ongoing military modernisation programmes, Indonesia’s expanding wish list of weaponry is made possible by the growing size of the international arms trade. In the period 2015-2019, global weapons trade volume was 5.5 per cent higher than in the period 2010 to 2014 and 20 per cent higher than from 2005 to 2009.

Growing demand has been matched by the rising number of sellers, giving more options to the potential buyers. In this regard, nothing is special about how Indonesia recently conducts its arms trade.


Indonesia’s recent military activism is also in line with the country’s increasingly outward-looking defence policies. While internal security should not be entirely dismissed, it has become apparent to defence policymakers that the country is not immune from regional security threats, especially when it comes to safeguarding Indonesian territorial integrity amidst the tension in the South China Sea.

But this is not the only thing at play. In the domestic context, there are several push factors. For one thing, Indonesia has been trying to diversify its weapons suppliers over the last two decades to avoid over-reliance on any single supplier.

A long embargo put in place by the United States in 1999 is no longer in force, but it’s had a clear effect on Indonesia’s contemporary strategic culture and outlook.

On top of that, there is a political consensus that Indonesia needs to localise arms manufacturing as much as possible by strengthening its own domestic defence industrial base. The 2012 Defence Industry Law sets a number of conditions in which the government can purchase foreign arms, such as the use of local content and offset deals.

Finally, this push for Indonesian military modernisation can be associated with the personal motivation of Defence Minister Prabowo himself. Easily one of the most well-read defence ministers in post-reform Indonesia with strong knowledge on strategic affairs, Minister Prabowo has been actively trying to expand Indonesia’s defence diplomacy portfolio.

He frequently travels abroad and holds meetings with foreign representatives in Jakarta. Moreover, while Indonesia’s domestic politics is surely full of plot twists, Prabowo is believed to still have an eye for the 2024 presidential election, and his arch-rival, current President Joko Widodo, can no longer run. If so, it is understandable that he is eager to make his mark.


While understandable, Indonesia’s impulsive approach to weapons procurement could have negative implications down the road in at least two aspects: Air Force operations and defence industry development.

First, Indonesia’s plan to acquire Eurofighter Typhoons will complicate the operational, personnel, and logistical aspects of the current Indonesian Air Force’s inventory. The Indonesian Air Force is now operating a wide range of multirole and light attack fighter aircrafts, including the United States-produced F-16 Fighting Falcons, Russian Su-27s and Su-30s, EMB-314s from Brazil, Hawk Mk109s/Mk209s from the United Kingdom, as well as T-50i Golden Eagles from South Korea.

Adding yet another fighter model from a different origin into the mix could put interoperability at risk, and increase the cost associated with personnel education and maintenance. New spare part warehouses and ground support equipment for the new aircrafts will also need to be prepared. Finally, it could complicate the career patterns of officers in the Air Force.

Another concern is the implications purchasing foreign weapons has on the domestic defence industry. For instance, since Austria is not the original manufacturer of the Typhoons, buying from them means that options are limited for Indonesia in terms of offset arrangements and the transfer of technology.

Finally, the Defence Industry Policy Committee (KKIP) is currently inactive, and has been since the last executive team was dismissed in February. The Committee is tasked with, among other things, evaluating whether each defence procurement would support the domestic defence industry. Proceeding with the plan to buy the Typhoons without consultation with the KKIP could set a negative precedent in terms of the defence industry governance.

This recent development is just one example, but if this trend continues then the long-term trajectory of Indonesian military modernisation is far from certain. While Indonesia is likely to continue adding new weapon systems into its inventory in response to volatile regional security dynamics, the details and timelines of these policies are susceptible to ever-changing domestic political contexts.

In any case, the government must be careful as it steps further down the path of military modernisation, or it risks making rash decisions to procure weapons that may do Indonesia’s defence apparatus more harm than good.

@#comcom @Chestnut
 

Gary

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what Indonesia need is a real shooting war so that the upper decision makers realize the wrong approach they've been pursuing all these years, seriously just loook at all Indonesian armed service , one could almost mistook it a s a collection pool, numerous in types but not that numerous in numbers.

If it was me, I would love the TNI-AU to standardize all (yes all) it's multirole fighter fleet into a F-16 while totally getting rid of the BAe Hawks and Sukhoi's.

Another thing Mr. Prabowo needs to take a look at is how this procurement will backfire to him if he goes into the 2024 Indonesian Presidential bid.
 

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It was rafales with gowind corvettes a few months ago, and speaking of eurofighter now. Meanwhile there is KFX which Indonesia has invested both financially and in manpower.
spare parts management is something crucial in wartime, even US ,the country with highest defense budget, leans on this subject to minimize their maintaining cost and ensure a healthy logistics in emergency. They try to use common parts of engines or electronics between systems (both in naval and aviation, just as an example of the contrast in application), such that when needed the logistics can be managed effectively.
with such scattered scheme of systems, the logistics will be a nightmare in wartime, i also see Indonesian navy is following and pursuing a scattered scheme.
Naval assets is more of my field so when we look at we can see Chinese subsystems (radar, ciws, anti -ship) on vessels (even-tough it is abandoned it is still available), we can see swedish subsystems (Saab), Netherland's subsystems (Thales N.), British cannon and Italian cannon (Oerlikon or 76 mm) on some other ship, french missiles (exocet ,vl mica) on some ships,while some old frigates has Russian and Chinese ,new FACs have french and chinese in mixed configuration, and probably American missiles and Danish and German subsystems on new multi role air defence frigate
yet there are others i have forgotten.
each different engine requires a new mechanics experienced on that
each different CMS requires new experts
each different missile system requires new experts and trainings
each different cannon requires new personnel while maintaining
each radar system requires new technicians which particularly experienced on such.

and now scale it up to airforce level, which airplanes requires constant maintaince after each flight,otherwise posing a threat of loss, and weapon loading after each sortie.
 
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Gary

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If Indonesia want's a long range missile hauling twin jet fighter, an F-15 advanced eagle is actually a more suitable choice considering that it also have a common type of engine with the TNI-Au's F-16's fleet, namely the Pratt and Whitney F100
a7622b7c94fc111f6b3e0ab490b08ccf.jpg


H16%20%281%29.jpg
 

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If it was me, I would love the TNI-AU to standardize all (yes all) it's multirole fighter fleet into a F-16 while totally getting rid of the BAe Hawks and Sukhoi's.

Yes it would afford Indonesia a great economy of scale...and very scaleable, diverse and reliable weapons package. Offset quality also makes most sense when you get in number from one supplier.

This is why all the recent announcements have sorely confused me.

Indonesia ideally would just commit in bulk to F-16 V if you ask me.
 

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It was rafales with gowind corvettes a few months ago, and speaking of eurofighter now. Meanwhile there is KFX which indonesia has invested both financially and in manpower.
spare parts management is something crucial in wartime, even US ,the country with highest defense budget, leans on this subject to minimize their maintaining cost and ensure a healthy logistics in emergency. They try to use common parts of engines or electronics between systems (both in naval and aviation, just as an example of the contrast in application), so that when needed the logistics can be managed effectively.
with such scattered scheme of systems, the logistics will be a nightmare in wartime, i see Indonesian navy is also following a scattered scheme.
this is just my take, the current defence minister of Indonesia , Mr.Prabowo Subianto, would likely do a re-run for the 2024 Indonesian presidential election, publicity stunts like these really helps if you look at the inner politics of how thing are run here.
 

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this is just my take, the current defence minister of Indonesia , Mr.Prabowo Subianto, would likely do a re-run for the 2024 Indonesian presidential election, publicity stunts like these really helps if you look at the inner politics of how thing are run here.

Its kind of interesting he ran against Jokowi a few times and is in his cabinet now anyway lol (that too as something as important as defence minister).

This kind of thing is pretty unthinkable in lot of countries.
 

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Yes it would afford Indonesia a great economy of scale...and very scaleable, diverse and reliable weapons package. Offset quality also makes most sense when you get in number from one supplier.

This is why all the recent announcements have sorely confused me.

Indonesia ideally would just commit in bulk to F-16 V if you ask me.
Not to mention the the other more urgent factors namely the geopolitical factor marked with the rapid rise of China in the Asia Pacific theater, a commonality of gear , spare parts and infrastructure between us with the Americans will be more important than ever. In this new cold war we (SouthEast Asian) instead of the Europeans are at the forefront of a global power struggle between the two most important countries in the 21st century, I would like to compare us with Finland or Sweden during the Cold war, yes we might not be taking side officially but when shit hits the fan, we're absolutely goin to take side. and it's not going to be PR China.
 

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this is just my take, the current defence minister of Indonesia , Mr.Prabowo Subianto, would likely do a re-run for the 2024 Indonesian presidential election, publicity stunts like these really helps if you look at the inner politics of how thing are run here.
I know a bit about internal politics of indonesia, to be honest it has been going good until the recent years (at least i felt so from the way things were managed)
 

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Yes it would afford Indonesia a great economy of scale...and very scaleable, diverse and reliable weapons package. Offset quality also makes most sense when you get in number from one supplier.

This is why all the recent announcements have sorely confused me.

Indonesia ideally would just commit in bulk to F-16 V if you ask me.
They already have KF-X they will be able to produce it, why getting foreigner planes?
F-15,F-16 and KF-X might be in different leagues (in terms of range and firepower) but they can diversify their long range needs by using naval assets-cruise missiles.
 

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They already have KF-X they will be able to produce it, why getting foreigner planes?
F-15,F-16 and KF-X might be in different leagues (in terms of range and firepower) but they can diversify their long range needs by using naval assets-cruise missiles.
if only Indonesia is smaller in size I would recommend the Turkish AF approach of using a single model of single engine front line fighters namely the F-16s, we really don't need more headache trying to master the technical aspect of many Fighter Jets, the thing most important is the machine will fight not in the tarmac but in the air.
 

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They already have KF-X they will be able to produce it, why getting foreigner planes?

Indonesia involvement+commitment in this project has lately seen some turbulence....let us see what finalises on it more steadily long term.

Also as far as I am aware, Indonesia needs something for this decade ASAP to meet its requirements it set for itself in capability....KF-X will take quite some more time to mature into deployable platform.
 

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Indonesia involvement+commitment in this project has lately seen some turbulence....
exactly, I don't need to explain further why this is such a bad idea, many countries started their fighter jets program from a less complex project namely COIN, then LIFT, then licence producing existing fighter jets before going all indigenous.

Indonesia missed this steps big time. not to mention our commitments with the payments.:cautious:
 

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if only Indonesia is smaller in size I would recommend the Turkish AF approach of using a single model of single engine front line fighters namely the F-16s, we really don't need more headache trying to master the technical aspect of many Fighter Jets, the thing most important is the machine will fight not in the tarmac but in the air.
True, but you can choose single provider or at least some systems from different providers with common engines and components can resolve the matter, US can manage to use common components on their systems despite of the area they are operating (worldwide almost).
And i doubt if it is related with a country's size, you rather need to protect your strategical locations, or directions which threats may appear more-likely.
The worst is, when those jets needed to be in air, they may not take off or result in casualties due to malfunction when it lacks in maintenance, not talking about peace times but in wartime.
 

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exactly, I don't need to explain further why this is such a bad idea, many countries started their fighter jets program from a less complex project namely COIN, then LIFT, then licence producing existing fighter jets before going all indigenous.

Indonesia missed this steps big time. not to mention our commitments with the payments.:cautious:
You skipped paying to the Koreans? Why though, i don't think it is lots of money.
 

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You skipped paying to the Koreans? Why though, i don't think it is lots of money.
umm , the last Indonesian DefMin from prev admins, are not really into modern warfare, he propose that to defend Indonesia long coastline, and dispersed island all Indonesia got to do is using patriotic young Indonesian with armed rifles and souped up spirits:)

it's called the bela negara (defending the country) program,
basically a 2 week boot camp filled with indoctrination and (sometimes) rifle shooting.and yes it's his premier projects that he's trying to push seriously in the last 5 years and we're not lacking people's like him in the military.

not only we missed paying the korean, we (yes I'm not joking) forget to pay for our defence satelite -______-
 

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umm , the last Indonesian DefMin from prev admins, are not really into modern warfare, he propose that to defend Indonesia long coastline, and dispersed island all Indonesia got to do is using patriotic young Indonesian with armed rifles and souped up spirits:)

it's called the bela negara (defending the country) program,
basically a 2 week boot camp filled with indoctrination and (sometimes) rifle shooting.and yes it's his premier projects that he's trying to push seriously in the last 5 years and we're not lacking people's like him in the military.

not only we missed paying the korean, we (yes I'm not joking) forget to pay for our defence satelite -______-
:cautious: Wow, i didn't know these.
 

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I was going to say something but I think everyone else has pretty much hit the mark.

What Indonesian policy-makers fails to realize is that you can't simply jump from making tactical transporter to fighter jets. The only 2 countries that actively have their own indigenous 5th gen programs are those who had already had a long history of manufacturing/assembling fighter jets.

Turkey already produces the F-16 indigenously, whereas Britain had been making jets since the end of World War 2.

No amount of blind nationalism and feel good posts would make up for that.

Moving on to the impulse buying. Keep in mind that the Air Force knows which planes it wants. Namely the F-16V (and unofficially the Strike Eagle). The whole drama about buying fighter jets all come from interest parties within the civilian government attempting to make money off the backs of massive arms contracts.
 
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