Is Taiwan Next?

TR_123456

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This is a subject worth debating.

Is this the time for China to act?
Will China make a move?

There are some indications

China's leaders may be watching Ukraine with an eye on Taiwan​


Hong Kong (CNN)As the world's attention focuses on the escalating crisis between Russia and Ukraine, a spotlight has also been turned on an island halfway around the world -- self-governing Taiwan.
On the surface, there may be parallels: both Taiwan and Ukraine are Western-friendly democracies whose status quo could be upended by powerful autocracies.
In Taiwan's case, China's Communist Party seeks eventual "reunification" with the island it claims as its territory despite having never governed it -- and has not ruled out doing so by force. For Ukraine, that threat is unfolding: Russian President Vladimir Putin has said he considers Russians and Ukrainians as "one people," and it's yet unclear how far he'll go to realize that claim -- on Monday he declared two breakaway, Moscow-backed territories in Ukraine as independent republics.


World leaders themselves have implied connections between the fates of Ukraine and Taiwan in recent weeks.
Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen has said Taiwan could "empathize" with Ukraine's situation given its experience with "military threats and intimidation from China."

In the West, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Saturday said "echoes" of what happens in Ukraine "will be heard in Taiwan," while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken on a trip to Australia earlier this month obliquely said "others are watching" the Western response to Russia, "even if it's half a world away in Europe."
Concerns have been rising in recent years that a confident China under leader Xi Jinping may make a bold move to take control of Taiwan, and Beijing will likely be carefully monitoring the situation in Ukraine for signs of how Western powers respond -- and just how severe those responses are.

The United States, the United Kingdom, the European Union, Canada, Australia and Japan have all announced economic sanctions to punish Moscow following Putin's moves earlier this week.
But there are limits to the parallels, and to how much Beijing could glean from the spiraling crisis in Ukraine when it comes any future actions toward Taiwan.
"How the US responds to Ukraine is not going to be the same as Taiwan because the way the US has constructed its relationship with Taiwan over decades is different than its responsibilities to Ukraine, the European Union, or NATO," said Lev Nachman, a postdoctoral research fellow at the Harvard University's Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies.
"Even though (Beijing) will still be watching closely to see how the world reacts to invasion and a potential redrawing of borders, which will likely factor into Beijing's own geopolitical calculus, it is highly unlikely that Beijing is going to drastically alter its strategy towards Taiwan over Ukraine," said Nachman, who focuses on Taiwan politics.
Similarly, experts have pushed back at the notion that the US' focus on Europe could provide a potential opening for China to make a move on Taiwan. These fears are seemingly compounded by Moscow's increasingly close ties to Beijing.

"I don't believe the Chinese would use force against Taiwan this year ... (Xi) doesn't really want to take any risk," said Steve Tsang, director of SOAS China Institute at the University of London, pointing to the Communist Party National Congress, due to be held in October, in which Xi is widely expected to secure a historic third term in power.
"A military adventure that is not successful will not do his third term of office much good, and a failure could potentially derail it," Tsang added.
The unique US-China dynamic also complicates any attempt at comparison between Ukraine and Taiwan. China is the US' most formidable long-term rival and the only country that can challenge US interests across domains and around the world, said David Sacks, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
"If China were to gain control of Taiwan, this more than anything else would help it establish regional hegemony. Chinese leaders understand that to the United States the stakes are different and its response would likely be very different," he said.

The 'people's republics'​

China also finds itself in an uncomfortable position following Russia's recognition on Monday of two breakaway Moscow-backed territories in Ukraine as independent states, the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic.
The move was roundly criticized by the United Nations and other world leaders as a violation of Ukraine's sovereignty, with Putin firing back that the situation "is different" than with other former Soviet states since Ukraine was "being used" by foreign nations to threaten Russia.
China has been sympathetic to Russian concerns about the security threat from NATO -- as both countries have presented an increasingly united front in the face of what they view as Western interference into their domestic affairs and threats to their security. That partnership was very publicly bolstered only weeks ago at a Xi-Putin summit.

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But China has long based its foreign policy on staunchly defending state sovereignty and denouncing what it views as outside interference inside its own borders. Beijing has also taken sweeping steps, including those decried by the international community as major human rights violations, to combat what it sees as separatist threats -- be it in Hong Kong, Xinjiang, or Tibet.
Hua Chunying, China's assistant minister of foreign affairs, on Wednesday denied Beijing had taken a position on Ukraine that contradicted its principle of respecting national sovereignty and territorial integrity. Any such claims had "an ulterior motive or (were) deliberately distorting matters," she said at a regular press briefing.
In comments the previous day, the ministry was quick to draw a distinction between the situation in Ukraine and Taiwan, when asked if there were any parallels.

"I would like to stress that there is but one China, and Taiwan is an inalienable part of China's territory. This is an indisputable historical and legal fact. The one-China principle is a universally-recognized norm governing international relations," spokesman Wang Wenbin said, referring to Beijing's tenet that there is only one China on either side of the Taiwan Strait.
Mainland China and Taiwan have been governed separately since the end of the Chinese civil war more than 70 years ago, when the defeated Nationalists retreated to the island.
Beijing has so far urged restraint and called for dialogue in response to developments in Ukraine this week. With its own agendas and current relationship with Russia, how China reacts to Ukraine will be a difficult balancing act, and one where its leaders will likely tread carefully, Harvard's Nachman said.
"China is trying its best to not take a firm stance in support of Russia while also pushing for peace and diplomacy (in Ukraine)," he said. This tells us that China is not going to match Russia's level of aggression (in Taiwan) -- at least right now."


 
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TR_123456

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As the West condemns Russia over Ukraine, Beijing strikes a different tone​


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Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping meeting in Beijing on February 4, 2022.

Hong Kong (CNN)China's envoy to the United Nations on Monday called for "all parties" to exercise restraint and avoid "fueling tensions" in Ukraine, but stopped short of condemning the Kremlin's recognition of independence for two pro-Moscow regions in the east of the country.
Beijing is navigating a complex position as the crisis in Ukraine intensifies, attempting to balance deepening ties with Moscow with its practiced foreign policy of staunchly defending state sovereignty.

In a brief statement at an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council Monday night, China's UN Ambassador Zhang Jun said Beijing welcomed and encouraged every effort for a diplomatic solution, adding that all concerns should be treated on the "basis of equality."

"The current situation in Ukraine is the result of many complex factors. China always makes its own position according to the merits of the matter itself. We believe that all countries should solve international disputes by peaceful means in line with the purposes and principles of the UN Charter," Zhang said.

The security council meeting comes as world leaders desperately try to de-escalate the situation in Ukraine, which saw a rapid shift when Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered Russian forces into two breakaway Moscow-backed territories after recognizing them as independent -- a move Western officials suggest would provide a pretext to a broader invasion of Ukraine.
Russia has for weeks said that it would not invade Ukraine, and in the security council meeting defended its actions as efforts "to protect and preserve those people" living in the self-proclaimed Donetsk People's Republic and Luhansk People's Republic (DPR and LPR).
Amid growing condemnation, Russia has sought to draw closer to China, with Putin traveling to Beijing on February 4 to meet with Chinese leader Xi Jinping ahead of the Winter Olympics. The summit ended with the release of a sweeping statement that declared there were "no limits" to the two countries' relationship and "no 'forbidden' areas of cooperation."

The display of solidarity has not gone unnoticed in the West. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen referred to Xi and Putin's recent joint statement in strongly-worded remarks at the Munich Security Conference on Friday, suggesting Beijing and Moscow sought to replace the rule of law with "rule of the strongest."
China has maintained that its interests are in dialogue and peaceful resolution, but experts say Beijing would be wary of being seen as culpable by association and would now seek to walk a tightrope.
"They don't want to get involved and they don't want to make a very strong statement, (that way) the US will not get angry and Russia (won't either)," said Alfred Wu, an associate professor with the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at National University of Singapore.
He added that Beijing would want to avoid Western sanctions targeting Moscow's actions and would "be careful about not having the image that they are openly supporting Russia."
China had earlier urged parties involved in the Ukraine crisis to return to the Minsk agreements, referring to accords reached in 2014 and 2015 following conflicts in eastern Ukraine that uphold Kyiv's control over its border with Russia.

In comments on Saturday while addressing the same conference in Munich, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said "sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries should be respected and safeguarded."
That puts China in an "awkward position" with regard to the latest developments, according to David Sacks, a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.
"Until the last moment, China emphasized the need to return to the Minsk agreement, and Putin publicly tore that up and essentially ignored China's proposal for dealing with the crisis," he said.
Sacks said in conversations outside of the public eye "there is likely a vigorous debate occurring in Beijing regarding the long-term costs of alignment with Russia," he said.
"China's embrace of Russia will invite further pushback from the United States and Europe that it wants to avoid."

Though not military allies, China and Russia have been presenting an increasingly united front in the face of what they view as Western interference into their domestic affairs, pushing back on US-led sanctions and often voting as a bloc in the UN.
This was underlined in the February 4 joint statement, which did not mention Ukraine, but saw China back Russia's central demand to the West, with both sides "opposing further enlargement of NATO."
Yu Bin, professor of political science at Ohio's Wittenberg University and a senior fellow at the Russian Studies Center of the East China Normal University in Shanghai, said China shared concerns over NATO given the growing role of the bloc in the Indo-Pacific.
"There is, therefore, a convergence of Russia and China's perceptions of the US-led alliance in both Europe and in Asia as a result of the increasingly proactive posture (of the alliance)," he said.

On Monday night in the US, Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with his Chinese counterpart Wang about developments in North Korea and "Russia's aggression against Ukraine," according to a brief readout from the State Department.
"The Secretary underscored the need to preserve Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity," the readout said.
According to a readout from the Chinese Foreign Ministry, Wang expressed "concern" about the situation in Ukraine. "China is concerned about [the] evolution of situation in Ukraine" and "legitimate security concerns of any country should be respected," Wang said during the call.
"The purposes and principles of the UN Charter should be upheld," Wang said, adding that the current situation in Ukraine is "closely related to the delay" in implementing the Minsk agreement.
The United States in Monday's security council meeting also called on countries to pick a side, with US Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield saying every UN member state has a stake in this brewing crisis. "This is a moment for collective action," she said. "There is too much at risk for anyone to sit on the fence."

 

TR_123456

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Read on Twitter some dudes claiming that China is moving vessels towards Taiwan? any info about that insanity?
 

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We have to wait and see but in my opinion,if China wants to do it,now is the time.
Yep, opening 2nd front in Asia and wreaking US and allies, i hope their intel already have countermeasure plan.

Anyway did they get their bulk coastal harpoon missiles already?
 

F-6 enthusiast

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"Drills", like the Russian did before making invasion
standard Maskirovka tactics . They Did the same maneuvers when they invaded Czechoslovakia in 1968

We have to wait and see but in my opinion,if China wants to do it,now is the time.
one of the quotes from their leaders goes ''Everything Under Heaven is in utter chaos, the situation is perfect''
it just goes to show the US thumb twiddling.
 

crixus

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I think all factors :

1) Economic might , Taiwan is in better economic position then Ukraine
2) Weapons and will to fight , Taiwan has qualitative better weapons to resist.
3) The geography of Taiwan gave them some buffer time to act and react
4) I think Taiwanese know their enemy better then Ukrainians.
5) Taiwan's reliance on west for its immediate security is less as compared to Ukraine.
 

xizhimen

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We have to wait and see but in my opinion,if China wants to do it,now is the time.
China won't do it, Chinese don't fight Chinese, this is Xi's slogan, as long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence, it's very safe, in Chinese, we believe 血浓于水, blood is thicker than water, people in Taiwan are our own flesh and blood.

_20210910101502-png.776756
 

Kara Khan

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"Is Taiwan Next?"

US, Europe, NATO all with their inaction and cowardness, surely encourage China to go ahead and do what they want. All that China face would be condemnation and sanctions.
 

TR_123456

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China won't do it, Chinese don't fight Chinese, this is Xi's slogan, as long as Taiwan doesn't declare independence, it's very safe, in Chinese, we believe 血浓于水, blood is thicker than water, people in Taiwan are our own flesh and blood.

_20210910101502-png.776756
Thats also how we think,Turks dont fight Turks(or Turkics).
 

crixus

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@T-123456 the fun part is what if China attacks and failed to capture .
 
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