Korea KF-X/ IF-X (KF-21) program

Test7

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That is right, there is deal happening during F35 acquisition for South Korea. They get huge technical data from F22 and F35 program intended to help KFX/IFX program, but 4 core technologies cannot be given due to US parliament objection.

Despite so, the basic design of KFX/IFX comes from C-103 design that is made by ADD Korea and Indonesia team (Indonesia Aerospace+ Bandung Institute of Technology) before LM and KAI join in 2016. The designed than refined and become C -109 that become final design.

I believe KFX sales can be stopped if US show discontent, just like what is happening in T50 Golden Eagle case.

i believe too. US will also take part in KFX's export meetings. The same problem goes for the TFX's engines. Therefore, more pressure needs to be exerted on domestic production.
 

Indos

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i believe too. US will also take part in KFX's export meetings. The same problem goes for the TFX's engines. Therefore, more pressure needs to be exerted on domestic production.

Yup this is why we hope on Turkish jet engine program to materialized......:(
 

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The UK blocked the sale of components, used in the FA-50, to Argentina which led to the deal not going through. The same will happen to SK when they intend to sell this jet to other countries. Which is unfortunate for South Korea as I think this plane would to really well in the export market.

This will not only happen with countries the US may view as "unreliable" to get their hands on american tech used in the KF-X but also will lead to South Korea being disadvantaged in tenders opened by "reliable" nations that want to buy new planes to replace aging fleets. The US will never allow its own companies to lose those tenders to another country when it can sabotage the competition by blocking the sale of components used in their product.

In a tender where the KF-X runs against the F-35, F/A-18 Block III, F-16V and F-15EX the KF-X has already lost and not because of capabilities, price or performance but just because they will never be able to give a guarantee of export because they first have to await permission from the US. Which the US will straight up say no to or just delay the decision long enough for the purchaser to say "I can't wait any longer" and go with an American product.

See T129 and Pakistan (seen as "unreliable") and the US blocking the export permission of the Engine, the same with the Philippines ("reliable") where the US trying to sell their own products (AH-64E or AH-1Z) for huge spike up in price even thought the Army made its choice already with the T-129 and signed an LOI. Yet there has been no news about the export because the US delays the decision to force the Philippines to go with an overpriced alternative which, oh will you look at that, comes from American companies.

Using foreign parts has its advantages as seen with the remarkable speed in which the KF-X is being developed but it also comes with disadvantages. In the case of SK, which as a nation has easy access to American hardware (F-35) and will continue to do so, the decision to use components from other countries may seem like a unwise decision in the future.
 
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Indos

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In a tender where the KF-X runs against the F-35, F/A-18 Block III, F-16V and F-15EX the KF-X has already lost and not because of capabilities, price or performance but just because they will never be able to give a guarantee of export because they first have to await permission from the US. Which the US will straight up say no to or just delay the decision long enough for the purchaser to say "I can't wait any longer" and go with an American product.
You make an exaggeration on this statement. Did you Turkish wait for US approval when you make a deal with Pakistan over ATAK Helicopter ?
 

Khagan1923

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You make an exaggeration on this statement. Did you Turkish wait for US approval when you make a deal with Pakistan over ATAK Helicopter ?

Read it again. South Korea will NEVER get an export permission by the US in tenders where American companies participate. Yes Turkey got the tender and now what? Pakistan is still waiting for Turkey to get the export permission for the engines for 3 years now.

The difference is Pakistan's only alternative is the Z-10ME which isn't performing as well as they would like or they would have already canceled the deal with Turkey.

Other countries will not be in the same situation. Once the purchaser realises that the permission isn't coming they will switch their decision to the second ranked jet on their list which most likely would be an American plane.

No one here is talking about the permission to sign a deal but when you use foreign components in your product you first have to get an export permission from the State Department which has to get the okay from senators who sit on the necessary committee, who as luck has it are all sponsored by the military-industrial complex. So tell me why should any of these Senators not veto the permission for the export of these parts when the companies (Lockheed, Boeing) that pay money into their pockets could lose billion dollar tenders because of it?

The US does this always to give its own companies an edge over the competition, there will be no special privilege for the South Koreans.

When you can't give your costumer an guarantee of sale then guess what the costumer will move on the next best product, which in many cases comes from the US.

And in cases where no American company is partaken in, it is not because they don't want the money but because it is a country who the US doesnt trust with its tech. In those cases there won't be an export permission for the necessary parts either for the South Koreans.

Which means in both cases there won't be a likely sale of the KF-X.

The TF-X while using the F110 won't be exported either by Turkey because we will never get the necessary permission for the F110 to be exported. Same case the TF-X will never win a tender, equipped with American engines, against its american competition because Turkey won't be able to give the necessary guarantee because the US will not give a guarantee that it will permit the export. The US doesn't have to say no, it just has to delay the decision long enough where the wait is not worth the advantages of buying the TF-X or KF-X over their american counterparts.

We have been waiting three years now for a decision for the T-129 engine so Pakistan can take delivery of its helicopters, but that decision will never come or it will come when there has been an alternative found for the american engines. But Pakistan doesn't have an alternative Helicopter that it can choose that performance the same as the T-129 for COIN in hot, cold and high areas. So it waits.

A country that can just choose one of the other jets and can take delivery in 3 years won't wait years for SK. It is as easy as that.

Turkey will most likely also lose the Philippines becaus they have alternatives (AH-64 and AH-1Z)
 
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Indos

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Read it again. South Korea will NEVER get an export permission by the US in tenders where American companies participate. Yes Turkey got the tender and now what? Pakistan is still waiting for Turkey to get the export permission for the engines for 3 years now.

The difference is Pakistan's only alternative is the Z-10ME which isn't performing as well as they would like or they would have already canceled the deal with Turkey.

Other countries will not be in the same situation. Once the purchaser realises that the permission isn't coming they will switch their decision to the second ranked jet on their list which most likely would be an American plane.

No one here is talking about the permission to sign a deal but when you use foreign components in your product you first have to get an export permission from the State Department which has to get the okay from senators who sit on the necessary committee, who as luck has it are all sponsored by the military-industrial complex. So tell me why should any of these Senators not veto the permission for the export of these parts when the companies (Lockheed, Boeing) that pay money into their pockets could lose billion dollar tenders because of it?

The US does this always to give its own companies an edge over the competition, there will be no special privilege for the South Koreans.

When you can't give your costumer an guarantee of sale then guess what the costumer will move on the next best product, which in many cases comes from the US.

And in cases where no American company is partaken in, it is not because they don't want the money but because it is a country who the US doesnt trust with its tech. In those cases there won't be an export permission for the necessary parts either for the South Koreans.

Which means in both cases there won't be a likely sale of the KF-X.

The TF-X while using the F110 won't be exported either by Turkey because we will never get the necessary permission for the F110 to be exported. Same case the TF-X will never win a tender, equipped with American engines, against its american competition because Turkey won't be able to give the necessary guarantee because the US will not give a guarantee that it will permit the export. The US doesn't have to say no, it just has to delay the decision long enough where the wait is not worth the advantages of buying the TF-X or KF-X over their american counterparts.

We have been waiting three years now for a decision for the T-129 engine so Pakistan can take delivery of its helicopters, but that decision will never come or it will come when there has been an alternative found for the american engines. But Pakistan doesn't have an alternative Helicopter that it can choose that performance the same as the T-129 for COIN in hot, cold and high areas. So it waits.

A country that can just choose one of the other jets and can take delivery in 3 years won't wait years for SK. It is as easy as that.

Turkey will most likely also lose the Philippines becaus they have alternatives (AH-64 and AH-1Z)

I would say the case that happen with Turkey could possibly not happen with the case of South Korea/Indonesia. Both SK and Indonesia leadership are low profile which is different with Erdogan that create much tension with US European allies.

Beside that, the engine export for outside Korea and Indonesia customers, for example, should have already been discussed with US gov/parliament before KFX/IFX program chooses GE to power KFX/IFX. Actually I get a sense that Turkish company hasnt get the approval to use ATAK engine for its export market, so this is why US take such move to Pakistan and Philippine deal.
 

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Not 8 prototypes, misleading information. There are only 3 prototypes now, fourth prototype will be manufactured in middle of 2022 where the the sixth prototype will be made in Indonesian Aerospace ( if Indonesia is still a partner)

What's going on with Indonesia in the project ?
 

Indos

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What's going on with Indonesia in the project ?

The renegotiation is started in 2018 November, 2018 is the worst in term of trade deficit where we experience about 8 billion USD deficit (It is less compared to India/Turkey/Pakistan/Bangladesh trade deficit), but as our currency is so fragile due to international exposure (many Westerners hold Rupiah) so that kind of deficit is huge for Indonesia, particularly under Jokowi administration which is so sensitive with economic points.

Then yes there is restriction in critical technology during R&D process but as I have been informed through my connection inside the program, actually Indonesian engineer see it as challenge, not some thing that make us need to stop continuing our part in the project.
 

Nilgiri

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The renegotiation is started in 2018 November, 2018 is the worst in term of trade deficit where we experience about 8 billion USD deficit (It is less compared to India/Turkey/Pakistan/Bangladesh trade deficit), but as our currency is so fragile due to international exposure (many Westerners hold Rupiah) so that kind of deficit is huge for Indonesia, particularly under Jokowi administration which is so sensitive with economic points.

Then yes there is restriction in critical technology during R&D process but as I have been informed through my connection inside the program, actually Indonesian engineer see it as challenge, not some thing that make us need to stop continuing our part in the project.

In 2010 to 2020 decade, Indonesia has held about 100 - 130 billion USD in forex reserve.

Thus a +/- trade deficit fluctuation yearly of 10% or less of that forex level is fairly minimal perturbation.
Pre-covid it was around -3.3% for Indonesia.

For comparison (across same decade) in the other countries you mention, this perturbation ratio for this decade (2010 - 2020) was around:

A) 15 - 30% in India's case (around -16% pre-covid)
B) 0 - 78% in Turkey's case (around +20% pre-covid)
C) 34 - 82% in BD Case (around -60% pre-covid)
D) 70% - 320% in Pakistan Case (around -162% pre-covid)

(Pre-covid being approx. 2019 latest number)

Frankly the last 2 (esp the very last one) are very different category of economy to other 3 and bear faint relevance given financial mismanagement and low development here (esp if you further consider their credit ratings and fiscal deficits relative to their tax base/realised revenue).

The last 2 also do not follow the highest IMF reporting standard unlike the other 3 (and they have near zero chance of joining it this decade either)....i.e no PMI index, frequent inflation index, and investment indices to cross-correlate further on these issues.

This leads to inflated GDP (when converted to USD) in both of them too given inflation (esp due to loan intake/cycles) accounting norms do not match well with other countries.

It always gets evidenced when you look at any basic consumption parameter that can be vetted by actual trade/investment/finance flow (from non-govt or external party).

Anyway <10% (trade deficit/forex) alone is not enough pressure to influence like you describe given Indonesia:

A) Has maintained investment grade credit ratings since 2011
B) Kept fiscal deficit to less than 3% consistently since even suharto time.
C) Like India and Turkey is an actual mature reporting+analysis driven economy (w.r.t govt institutions and central banking) with overall modern underlying policy...although there are of course substantial + mounting challenges in all of them relative to each of their average development levels (earlier structural problems continuing, transient problems by bad policy and covid impact on economy are the biggest 3)


However if we do it for total current account in general (i.e incl. remittances + foreign income transfers etc.. as well) for the decade 2010 - 2020:

A) India: 3 - 30% (-6% pre covid)
B) Turkey: 0 - 85% (+8% pre covid)
C) BD: 0 - 22% (-10% pre covid)
D) PAK: 8 - 160% (-43% pre covid)

(Pre-covid being approx. 2019 latest number.)

South Asia improves overall in the numbers given remittance component being fairly prominent.

But as you can see Pakistan remains really bad (both range experienced and also the pre covid level seen) relative to the others given its continued structural mismanagement.

Bangladesh improves dramatically, given high remittance ratio w.r.t trade but the earlier underlying factors still of course apply.

For Indonesia the C.A range for this decade was 0 - 30% and pre-covid situation was around -23%.

i.e not good, and this is probably closer to what you were trying to say (the difference being its something past the trade deficit)

i.e it is somewhat more serious for Indonesia when we consider the total current account pressure situation to the forex level (rather than just trade deficit).

i.e only -3.3% of the -23% CAD is caused by trade deficit (a full 20% or so is other C.A factors)

i.e there is/are foreign transfer component(s) (past trade) adding far more CAD pressure (given total CAD/forex was -12% or so between 2015 - 2017, and had doubled 2018 onwards)

...and thus like you describe maybe transmitting to INA govt negotiation/bargaining strength in large commited forex-involved military programs.

INA faced a similar situation of this kind of CAD pressure between 2012 - 2014 (thats where the max -30% CAD pressure was seen in 2013 and forex reserve dropped just under 100 billion USD that year.).

The issue may compound now with covid economic effect going on for a while (really expanding fiscal deficit and borrowing etc, and having depressed GDP).

INA and others will have to best leverage investment,savings,capacity streams effectively and continue to do sustainable relevant reforms.

Others that might find parts of this interesting and/or know more about some underlying things if they want to share (I've not looked at these ratios/ranges quite so specifically before):

@VCheng @Paro @Madokafc @AlphaMike @anmdt
 

Indos

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In 2010 to 2020 decade, Indonesia has held about 100 - 130 billion USD in forex reserve.

Thus a +/- trade deficit fluctuation yearly of 10% or less of that forex level is fairly minimal perturbation.
Pre-covid it was around -3.3% for Indonesia.

For comparison (across same decade) in the other countries you mention, this perturbation ratio for this decade (2010 - 2020) was around:

A) 15 - 30% in India's case (around -16% pre-covid)
B) 0 - 78% in Turkey's case (around +20% pre-covid)
C) 34 - 82% in BD Case (around -60% pre-covid)
D) 70% - 320% in Pakistan Case (around -162% pre-covid)

(Pre-covid being approx. 2019 latest number)

Frankly the last 2 (esp the very last one) are very different category of economy to other 3 and bear faint relevance given financial mismanagement and low development here (esp if you further consider their credit ratings and fiscal deficits relative to their tax base/realised revenue).

The last 2 also do not follow the highest IMF reporting standard unlike the other 3 (and they have near zero chance of joining it this decade either)....i.e no PMI index, frequent inflation index, and investment indices to cross-correlate further on these issues.

This leads to inflated GDP (when converted to USD) in both of them too given inflation (esp due to loan intake/cycles) accounting norms do not match well with other countries.

It always gets evidenced when you look at any basic consumption parameter that can be vetted by actual trade/investment/finance flow (from non-govt or external party).

Anyway <10% (trade deficit/forex) alone is not enough pressure to influence like you describe given Indonesia:

A) Has maintained investment grade credit ratings since 2011
B) Kept fiscal deficit to less than 3% consistently since even suharto time.
C) Like India and Turkey is an actual mature reporting+analysis driven economy (w.r.t govt institutions and central banking) with overall modern underlying policy...although there are of course substantial + mounting challenges in all of them relative to each of their average development levels (earlier structural problems continuing, transient problems by bad policy and covid impact on economy are the biggest 3)


However if we do it for total current account in general (i.e incl. remittances + foreign income transfers etc.. as well) for the decade 2010 - 2020:

A) India: 3 - 30% (-6% pre covid)
B) Turkey: 0 - 85% (+8% pre covid)
C) BD: 0 - 22% (-10% pre covid)
D) PAK: 8 - 160% (-43% pre covid)

(Pre-covid being approx. 2019 latest number.)

South Asia improves overall in the numbers given remittance component being fairly prominent.

But as you can see Pakistan remains really bad (both range experienced and also the pre covid level seen) relative to the others given its continued structural mismanagement.

Bangladesh improves dramatically, given high remittance ratio w.r.t trade but the earlier underlying factors still of course apply.

For Indonesia the C.A range for this decade was 0 - 30% and pre-covid situation was around -23%.

i.e not good, and this is probably closer to what you were trying to say (the difference being its something past the trade deficit)

i.e it is somewhat more serious for Indonesia when we consider the total current account pressure situation to the forex level (rather than just trade deficit).

i.e only -3.3% of the -23% CAD is caused by trade deficit (a full 20% or so is other C.A factors)

i.e there is/are foreign transfer component(s) (past trade) adding far more CAD pressure (given total CAD/forex was -12% or so between 2015 - 2017, and had doubled 2018 onwards)

...and thus like you describe maybe transmitting to INA govt negotiation/bargaining strength in large commited forex-involved military programs.

INA faced a similar situation of this kind of CAD pressure between 2012 - 2014 (thats where the max -30% CAD pressure was seen in 2013 and forex reserve dropped just under 100 billion USD that year.).

The issue may compound now with covid economic effect going on for a while (really expanding fiscal deficit and borrowing etc, and having depressed GDP).

INA and others will have to best leverage investment,savings,capacity streams effectively and continue to do sustainable relevant reforms.

Others that might find parts of this interesting and/or know more about some underlying things if they want to share (I've not looked at these ratios/ranges quite so specifically before):

@VCheng @Paro @Madokafc @AlphaMike @anmdt
Nice analysis bro, I will try to read more seriously once I get into my laptop and will see whether I could make a respond to your post here.
 
E

ekemenirtu

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The most important reason why KAI is making such rapid progress is that KFX uses a very high percentage of US subsystems. Under a defence offset package linked to South Korea’s 2014 procurement of the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II, the US corporation is already positioned as a technical partner on the KFX. Lockheed Martin is obligated to provide assistance across 21 technology suites including flight controls, avionics, systems integration, materials, and unspecified fighter aircraft weaponry. Frankly, I think KF X very useful for South Korea. Indonesia's participation in the program also means capability gain for Indonesia. A successful example of the system for the BAe and Turkey. But I wonder this. Will South Korea be able to easily sell this plane to a country that the US does not want? This is the main problem of countries that do not produce the entire system.


Excellent overview.

This aesthetically pleasing fighter aircraft contains a lot of imported components, technologies and know-how that would have been very hard or impossible for the Koreans to develop and produce all by themselves in such a short period of time.

You could say those are some of the perks or benefits of being a US ally/"poodle" (if you would like to phrase it that way).

Turkey, alongside other NATO and non-NATO allies of the USA are some of the other beneficiaries of American largesse. Turkish defense industry is filled with such examples of gratuitous foreign transfer of technology, materials, components or know how (if not all of them) for advancing Turkish defense industry.

This brings us back to your question: Will South Korea be able to easily sell this plane to a country that the US does not want?

I believe the answer would be a resounding "No".

Even if the Korean aircraft contained no components or intellectual property of foreign origin at all, the Koreans would not be able to sell their aircraft if their American protectors would not consent.

As an example, look at the recent row with Iran over $8 billion in payments in arrears. Due to unilateral US sanctions, not a United Nations approved sanction, the Koreans were unable to release Iranian funds earned in exchange for oil/gas sales
held in Korean banks.

If you count the number of countries that were able to and willing to evade unilateral US sanctions to do business with such countries as Iran, Russia, North Korea, Cuba, Venezuela or such, you might get an answer to the question: How many countries would be able to sell their wares to countries that the USA does not approve of?.
 
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ekemenirtu

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The UK blocked the sale of components, used in the FA-50, to Argentina which led to the deal not going through. The same will happen to SK when they intend to sell this jet to other countries. Which is unfortunate for South Korea as I think this plane would to really well in the export market.

It probably will not be an exaggeration to say that South Korea is a relatively significant exporter, manufacturer, industrial power, technological power and is able to earn significant trade and current account surpluses despite no considerable known deposits of oil/gas/energy reserves within its territory.

In that context, the sale of weapons constitute not more than a drop in the bucket for their annual earnings. Even if weapons sales are foregone, their national fortunes will not be affected much.

This is unlike the case we find in, let us say, the Russian Federation. In the United States, too, due to the overly politicized, bloated military-industrial complex and bureaucracy that is deeply entangled in that military-industrial complex, weapons sales are of great significance for a large number of workers, corporate stakeholders, bureaucrats and the entire "war profiteering industry", if you like.
 

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Indonesia parliament support KFX/IFX program. This is from Parliament official website.

Commission I Discusses Defense Cooperation with South Korean Defense Minister
16-03-2021 / COMMISSION I


1616154871781.png


Commission I of the DPR RI carried out Courtesy Call activities with the South Korean Delegation represented by South Korean Defense Minister Song Young Moo. Photo: Runi / nvl


Commission I of the DPR RI carried out Courtesy Call activities with the South Korean Delegation represented by South Korean Defense Minister Song Young Moo. Chairman of Commission I DPR RI Meutya Viada Hafid said the meeting with the South Korean Defense Minister was aimed at increasing cooperation in the defense sector, especially submarines and jet fighters . She assessed that Indonesia and South Korea have had good diplomatic relations for a long time and have never experienced tensions between Indonesia and South Korea.

"This meeting, represented by the South Korean Minister of Defense, aims to discuss defense cooperation between the two countries, especially submarines and jet fighters , as we know, Indonesia and South Korea have a very good relationship for a long time. This relationship can continue to be improved, ”said Meutya after the meeting held at Nusantara II Building, Senayan, Jakarta, Tuesday (16/3/2021).

Furthermore, the Golkar Party politician said, during the Covid-19 pandemic, Indonesia currently needs a lot of assistance in all fields including defense and the economy. South Korea is the closest ally that provides a lot of assistance, resulting in a more stable economy.

"During this pandemic, we need a lot of help. Not only from defense, but the economy as well and South Korea is an ally that also provides assistance, so that the country's economy becomes more stable. For example, with many South Korean companies investing, of course it will help, ”concluded the legislator for the North Sumatra I electoral district. (tn / sf)

 
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South Korean defence company LIG Nex1 has developed an electronic warfare (EW) self-protection system for integration with the Korean Fighter eXperimental (KF-X) fighter aircraft being developed for the Republic of Korea Air Force (RoKAF).

Company officials told Janes that a prototype of the system was delivered to aircraft manufacturer Korea Aerospace Industries (KAI) in the second half of 2020 to equip the KF-X prototypes currently being assembled at KAI headquarters in Sacheon, South Gyeongsang Province. The first prototype is expected to be formally rolled out in April.

KAI expects to complete construction of the second and third KF-X prototypes this year and finish assembling the remaining three aircraft by the first half of 2022. The fourth and sixth prototypes are expected to be tandem-seat variants.

The officials said that the internal EW suite, which was developed under a KRW114.5 billion (USD101 million) contract signed in late October 2016, is expected to enter series production following a series of trials and evaluations.

On its website LIG Nex1 described the system, which it referred to simply as the “KFX EW Suite”, as an “EW self-protection jammer” that is designed to detect, analyse, and jam signals from enemy radars and/or incoming missiles. The suite will also be integrated with countermeasures and decoys on the KF-X, including chaffs and flares.

 

Indos

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4, 5, and 6 prototypes are even not yet manufactured in 2021. I dont think they will be finished in first semester of 2022. This statement is likely made by Jane reporter who dont have enough knowledge about the program
 

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The pandemic also almost crippled the company’s much-anticipated KF-X project.

“The KF-X program requires key components imported from Europe and the US. However, the pandemic triggered shutdowns in those regions, pushing back the project’s schedule by six months. ... we managed to put things back on track at the end of December. I can’t thank my staff and executives enough who slept at the office to solve this issue,” Ahn said.

KAI will hold a launching event of the 4.5-generation stealth fighter jet in the second week of this month, according to the CEO.

Starting 2028, KAI will begin the export of the KF-X aircraft based on its competitiveness in price.

“It takes about 100 billion won to 200 billion won to acquire one F-35 fighter jet. Lockheed Martin aims to bring down the price to $80 million per unit, but the maintenance costs are so high that even the US is considering to develop new 4.5 generation fighters or upgrade existing fighters,” said Ryu Kwang-su, head of aircraft program division.

“KAI aims to set the price of KF-X fighter at $65 million with minimized maintenance costs. Our analysis says that such price range will offer KF-X a competitive edge in the global export market.”

 

Indos

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The plane is initially targeted to have a price range over 50 million USD per plane at its first development stage, so 65 million USD is not too far from that initial price target. In the future it is also targeted to use Korean made A2A missiles for both BVR and WVR.
 
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