Lessons of the Crimea. What conclusions did Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia draw after the annexation?
The annexation of Crimea changed the defense strategy of the Black Sea region. After 2014, Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria and Georgia had to decide how to protect their borders from Russian aggression. They chose different paths: old rivals became allies, some relied on a powerful navy, and some chose a neutral position in relations with Russia. With the experts of the Lviv Security Forum, we found out how the occupation of Crimea changed the Black Sea region.
Turkey. From the city of Sinop in the north of this country to Yalta on the southern coast of Crimea 287 kilometers straight across the Black Sea. This is a little more than from Kyiv to Vinnytsia.
Turkey has turned its attention to the Black Sea since the annexation of Crimea, according to Turkish International Affairs Council President Mustafa Aydin ."Turkey is trying to increase its naval forces in the Black Sea. But at the moment it is very difficult, because in the military direction, Turkey is more focused on the Mediterranean - in order to balance the Russian presence there and prevent Russia from developing to the full in the Middle East, in particular in Syria, "said Mustafa Aydin.
Turkish and Russian soldiers in northern Syria, 2019
It was after the annexation of Crimea that Ankara and Kyiv plunged into cooperation in the defense industry, says Mustafa Aydin: “We are talking about joint development of missile systems and joint production of aircraft, we began to cooperate with the Antonov plant. Ukraine already supplies engines and turbines to Turkey, and this is very important for our Armed Forces. "
The countries have agreed to manufacture Bayraktar TB2 drones - also called the "Black Sea Shield".
Turkish UAV Bayraktar TB2 during tests of the State Concern "Ukroboronprom"
They also began to jointly manufacture another drone - Bayraktar Akıncı ("Bayraktar Akıncı"). The turboprop engine is assembled for it in Zaporozhye, this machine is capable of carrying five hundred kilograms of missiles.
In addition, Kyiv and Ankara plan to jointly build and repair Ukrainian ships. According to the Globalfirepower portal , there are now 84 ships in Turkey. In the next 3 years, Ankara wants to build another 24 warships.
Turkish ships at NATO exercises in the Black Sea, 2015
Ukraine can count on Turkey's help in the event of Russian aggression by Crimea. But not for military aid, says Soner Chagaptai , director of Turkey's research program at Washington University's Middle East Policy (USA) .
"I think Turkey will not go directly to the confrontation with Russia. "In the event of a short-term military aggression, Turkey will not help militarily, but will support Ukraine politically and internationally," said Soner Chagaptai.
Romania. From the port of Constanta to Sevastopol in the annexed Crimea 390 kilometers. It's about the same as from Kyiv to Lutsk.
The port city of Constanta in Romania
The annexation of Crimea brought Ukraine and Romania closer. Earlier, the countries argued over the delimitation of the Black Sea and the shelf with oil and gas fields. In 2009, the International Court of Justice finally established a border at sea. But relations did not improve for a long time.
"Relations with Ukraine have been difficult. In particular, they got worse when your former defense minister and then prime minister Yekhanurov said that Romania was a threat to Ukraine, but not Russia. But, of course, it was a joke, and we all realize it, "said Julian Kifu, a professor at Romania's National Defense University in Bucharest.
Yuriy Yekhanurov - Minister of Defense of Ukraine (2007–2009)
It is unknown whether Yekhanurov was really joking, but then the Minister of Defense of Ukraine called both Romania and Russia "probable opponents of Ukraine." The occupation of Crimea changed everything. Former rivals became allies.
"Two months ago, there was a huge leap in our relations, after the visit of the Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Minister of Defense of Ukraine to Romania. The parties concluded an agreement on military cooperation. Now, I am convinced, relations will deepen, with joint military exercises ahead, both in Ukraine and in Romania, ”said Julian Kifu, a professor at Romania's National Defense University in Bucharest.
NATO's ground-based missile defense system is now located in southern Romania. Ships from the North Atlantic Alliance regularly call at the port of Constanta and conduct exercises there. In Romania, 15 warships on the Black Sea, including 3 frigates and 4 corvettes .
Bulgaria. From the port of Varna to Sevastopol in the annexed Crimea is about 470 kilometers straight by sea. It's like from Kyiv to Kryvyi Rih.
US military in the Bulgarian port of Varna, 2014
Bulgaria is one of the countries in the region that has chosen a "cautious" foreign policy after the annexation of Crimea, explains Dimitar Bechev , director of the European Policy Institute in Sofia : "The only person who shapes policy in Bulgaria is Prime Minister Boyko Borissov. His strategy is to avoid risks. He wants to be on good terms with everyone. … Bulgaria wants to be friends with the United States and Russia, and at the same time maintain good relations with Turkey. Our strategy is to avoid and minimize risks. "
Boyko Borissov - Prime Minister of Bulgaria, Brussels, 2020
Bulgaria is a member of NATO, it has 29 warships on the Black Sea, 18 of which are mine action ships . The country regularly participates in NATO exercises.
Despite its power at sea, Bulgaria is vulnerable to Russia, says Dimitar Bechev: “First of all, from a military point of view, due to the militarization of Crimea and Russia's increase in the arsenal of cruise missiles with long-range range. Bulgaria is also economically vulnerable. We have many Russian energy companies. For example, "Lukoil" and "Neftekhim" in the city of Burgas. "
Georgia. From the port of Poti to Yalta in the annexed Crimea 660 kilometers. It is a little further than from Kyiv to Zaporizhia.
NATO ship in the port of Poti in Georgia, 2018
After the annexation of Crimea, Georgia has chosen a policy of "not irritating Russia in the military sphere," said Batu Kuteliya, Georgia's former deputy defense minister . He believes that the country's authorities declare their intention to join NATO, but do little to do so.
"Our response and our reaction to the annexation of Crimea should have been different. We must modernize the Armed Forces and develop technologically - these are the main factors in opposing Russia's hybrid war strategy. We need to integrate more into NATO. To increase the costs of our defense complex, "Batu Kutelia said.
Georgian military at NATO exercises, 2020
After the war with Russia in 2008, Georgia disbanded its navy and now has only the Coast Guard. There are 12 patrol boats left in the country on the Black Sea . The Georgian military is taking part in NATO land maneuvers, and Georgian ports are taking in North Atlantic ships.
https://www.radiosvoboda.org/a/crimea-annexation-black-sea-region/30956529.html
