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I think this is due to the fact that there are too many uncertainties like the HTS for example. The biggest problem right now is Idlib. If we manage to sort out the Idlib problem as we tried with our coup trough Abu Mariya Al-Qahtani (ex-second in command of HTS- died) we would have dissolved the HTS, isolated the radical elements and destroy them under an unified Opposition government and the Syrian National Army.
HTS is serving as a pretext for invasion, just as HRE, YPG and all other PKK wings are serving as pretext for invasion by our forces. The problem is that Russia, Iran and the Regime can play with the existence of HRE and can shape it according to their goals while we have limited influence over HTS, plus the fact that we recognized them as terrorist organization and Idlib is basically an open prison for them so we can't just remove them, but have to fight them and this is a very, very hard task. They are the best prepared group in Syria from all camps, have all highly trained, good equipped and motivated force in high number. They are also not shy of conducting terrorist operations with the means of suicide bombers etc. The consequences in Syria will be hard and we will see a rise of terrorist attacks in Turkiye too.
The de-escalation policy is a mean for winning time until we figure out something (like we tried with Qahtani) or there is other dynamic which we can exploit and resolve this issue in the most forgiving way possible. Currently there are daily protests for more than 6 months that are supported by the moderate Opposition for the overthrow of Julani in different areas in Idlib. This is a good opportunity so we can figure out something. Currently Julani is doing well in controlling these, but nothing is guaranteed as in result of these protests and other activities in the past a lot of people got thrown in prison and this angers very important people including tribal leaders, military commanders, religious figures and thanks God there is also a strong media working against Julani. If properly exploited, with a bit of money and some good relations with important figures in Idlib we can turn these protests in our advantage.
The Idlib case should be resolved as peaceful as possible due to the population living there. If large scale fighting erupts the remaining people in Idlib will search for an escape route to Turkish controlled areas and eventually Turkiye. A probable escalation at Tal Rifat or another point can lead to a reciprocal response by Russia, Iran and Assad in Idlib which is a risky thing for us as nobody can predict how it will end. This is why we should be very strong on the negotiations table.
Currently by the looks we are dealing economic benefits for the Assad trough the normalizing of economic relations between our areas and the Regime by opening border gates and checkpoints for commercial trade for further security guarantees by Russia, but all this is a temporary solution benefiting the Regime the most. There are rumors that Tal Rifat and Manbij are on the table of these negotiations and Russia may eventually give them to us without fighting, but so far I didn't see any serious move pointing at something like that.
