Military Operations Syria

[Anastasius]

Should act now while Russia is still distracted.

 

[Bogeyman]

My opinion on what's happening in Syria regarding the Russians is Turkiye giving ita last try at diplomatic solution with Assad. Despite Assad's and HRE/PKK, Iranian proxy provocations Turkiye is still consistent in its initiative of Erdogan-Assad meeting and probably a joint initiative towards the solution for the YPG/PKK problem.

While this process is continuing under Iranian pressure in a negative meaning the Russians are bracing themselves by establishing new bases on critical points like the recent deployment in Kobani/Ayn Al-Arab.

I don't think anything meaningful will come out of this as Iranian backed provocations are continuing.

As I said if this diplomatic initiative doesn't give fruits then this is it. There will be no other option than to sort this out by force starting with Tal Rifat, Manbij and probably Tal Tamr and Ayn Issa.

Meanwhile PKK infiltration attempts continue. At least one SNA fighter was killed in result of an infiltration attempt on the Sajur river line south of Jarablus

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1829282443716972650

As long as Russia and the US jointly confront Turkey in Syria, there will be no operation. You are expecting too much, people. The paradigm also has a European leg. We have seen not only the Russians and the US but also the British, French and Germans against us. They have embargoed us. (I am not saying this to you, Kartal1, but to those who are trying to portray Turkey as a paper tiger) our friends who are like lions and tigers on paper do not seem to know with whom we are arm wrestling on the field. There will be no operation on the field when the whole world is against you. As long as the Russians do not withdraw from Syria and NATO does not engage with Russia (if Ukraine intervenes in the war in Belarus as a response to the occupation of Russian territory, the regional war will strain NATO), our path in Syria will not open.

 

[Ryder]

Should act now while Russia is still distracted.

Turkiye not just facing Russia but also the USA and EU.

West and the East is full of backstabbers. In the Geopolitical arena it has to be balanced. I dont see Turkiye sacrificing its interests for NATO or for Russia.

We should never get caught onto this alliance bullshit like we are nato. Alliances are just temporary goals in furthering your own interests. Nato like all alliances will one day dissolve hence why Turkiye needs to get ready.

 

[KhanOfEurasia]

PKK/YPG Terrorist were crisped by MIT Drone Attack.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1831291405144109340

 

[Kartal1]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1831821888492052574

 

[Saithan]

If we’re going to put the hurt on them wouldn’t it be better to keep those oilfields in/near Kamishli burning ? If they are within range of our artillery we’d be able to keep it going at decent cost.

I think we need those hybrid firtinas from MKE very soon.

 

[Kartal1]

If we’re going to put the hurt on them wouldn’t it be better to keep those oilfields in/near Kamishli burning ? If they are within range of our artillery we’d be able to keep it going at decent cost.
View attachment 70454

I think we need those hybrid firtinas from MKE very soon.

This is a good point when it comes to solution oriented approach. Even with the current inventory the TSK has enough force to not only keep the fields burning, but also to enter these areas and exterminate any breathing rat. What we see is not a solution related approach.

Both YPG/PKK on the east of Euphrates and also the HRE/PKK on the west of Euphrates have their liabilities. Currently we are in a damage control mode with a few perks. When we strike these critical liabilities or in other words strategic targets beyond a certain intensity this is no longer a message towards the terrorists themselves, but to their handlers. The oil fields you talk about are part of these sensitive targets that are concerning not only for the YPG/PKK, but also for the US.

We hit these targets when we are irritated by the handlers and the reasons may be different, but as we talked before we don't cross a certain red line or an unwritten rule as long as they don't do it or terrorists under their supervision don't do it no matter with their consent or no.

These are trust building measures between Turkiye-the US and Turkiye-Russia depending on the area of responsibility. Are we too patient with them? Yes, for sure and as I said above we shouldn't judge the actions of the terrorists only on the basis of the consent of their handlers in certain situations. I think we should touch a bit harder. There are a lot of critical targets coming on my mind both on the east, but also on the west of Euphrates that we can hit in such a retaliation, my approach would probably a bit different than yours, but no matter what, it is evident that TSK is still passive despite the positive developments in the last year. I would like to see more. Deterrence is key.

 

[Saithan]

But as I see it. We’re not making progress with our plans for how we want Syria to develop. While US and YPG on the other hand make progress for their plans. In other words as I see it their progress is sustainable. Russia neither is in a sustainable position, but it’s better than ours. So I don’t see our hand as anything but a losing hand.

 

[Kartal1]

But as I see it. We’re not making progress with our plans for how we want Syria to develop. While US and YPG on the other hand make progress for their plans. In other words as I see it their progress is sustainable. Russia neither is in a sustainable position, but it’s better than ours. So I don’t see our hand as anything but a losing hand.

Well, I am not sure if there are any concrete steps that we plan on doing of this moment. The way I see it, there is no way we get victorious from all this mess. The best we can do is minimize the damage done.

In order to understand the position of the US and Russia in the way of bilateral agreements and understanding with Turkiye in Syria.

The US tries to legitimize its presence as a force that is fighting DEASH together with the SDF. There is still significant presence in the Badia desert, there are still issues like the Al-Hol camp and Deir Ez-Zor. The problem is that DEASH will not be totally destroyed. Currently they are very active and are wrecking havoc over the Regime. When it comes to Deir Ez-Zor they are still active trough small networks, but the SDF in coordination with the US is doing the necessary to contain them. Take a look at how beautiful these sentences sound . In fact what we see in Deir Ez-Zor is both DEASH, but also pressure against the local tribes (working with the IRGC) by labeling them as DEASH. So basically DEASH will never evaporate from there as long as false labeling exists. Prison breaks, riot within the Al-Hol camp are also a chance for an ISIS revival in the area. Just please when read this exact text try to read between the lines and you will understand what I am really talking about.

On the political side of things while the SDF made some progress, their whole system is more fragile than most of the people think. These elections etc will never have a real legitimacy and I don't even think they will hold them anytime soon. The only way the YPG can earn a certain level of legitimacy is trough Bafel Talabani in Iraq. We know that KDP and the Barzanis are not in a great shape so basically the throne in KRG is being prepared for the Talabanis. The way I see things is that there is a US-Iran struggle to win the love of the Talabanis as this may be critical in the future as trough Talabani and the SDF there is almost full control over the north of Iraq and the north of Syria. And while this is happening Bafel Talabani is continuing contacts with both traditionalists and reformists in the PKK represented by the new and popular YPG in Syria and his contacts of the traditionalist branch in Qandil.

I don't think the situation is going great for the US BTW. The US by the looks will be forced to leave Iraq and Syria very soon under the pressure of the IRGC and their related paramilitary force. I am trying to explain for a lot of time that the US presence right now is playing in our favor as there are two powers balancing each other, there is friction and we can get something out of this. As long as Iran and the US are concentrated on themselves we are okay, but the moment one of these two powers concentrates solely on Turkiye we got a very big problem. These two should be kept busy.

When we think of Russia we also have to take in account our relationship with them. There is a semi-successful de-escalation agreement and totally ridiculous security guarantees from their side while we are mostly abiding by these. Where is the problem here? The problem is that the Russia is there defining the position of the Syrian Regime to a big extend and the Syrian Regime doesn't distinguish between radical and moderate opposition forces, but puts every opposition faction and its political representation under the label "terrorists". So in order for any development to happen there we should meet the Regime together with Iran and Russia and decide who is terrorist and who is not. This will be very difficult process and I don't see how any positive development will come out of this. In case of a positive development the HRE, YPG, HTS and their political branches should be recognized as terrorist organizations, the Syrian Interim Government and the SNA should be the legitimized representative of the Syrian Opposition and all of the territory under the control of these organizations should be cleaned. An impossible scenario with the current dynamics.

The way I see it is that the US is a goner and the majority of these weapons we see will be left for the possible anti-Iranian/Regime, democratic rebellion (which will result in a total annihilation) after the US leaves, Russia is trying to protect its positions from our forces, consolidate its presence in the political life in Syria and is preparing for a possible standoff with Iran post Assad. Iran is currently tightening the grip in Syria, forcing US withdrawal in coordination with its servants in Iraq (a withdrawal form both Iraq and the Levant), taking the needed measures in order to tighten its grip around the political power in Syria, deals with the PKK and Talabani as representatives of the large Kurdish actors in the region, ensuring their continuous influence in KRG and the north of Syria, slowly, but surely choking us trough their paramilitary and political proxies in Iraq and Syria so they can get in a fully dominant position, leaving our projects on their mercy. Turkiye tries to abide by the rules, does some half assed moves that result in a couple weeks of tension that can be exploited, but is not exploited in the end. Doesn't have a clear roadmap of what is the end game in Syria (has the vision, but no proactive approach towards its fulfillment). Has a radical Islamist organization problem on which Turkiye's security in Syria is largely based on, has a separatist PKK problem extending trough the whole north of Syria to Iraq, millions of refugees that can not return to their lands. Turkiye's main proxy is based on a paramilitary force known for smuggling, child recruitment and other war crimes with little to none positive prospects despites the billions thrown in this project and all of the support initiatives. Basically Turkiye is waiting for a miracle from God trough which HTS can be dismantled without triggering a war between the HTS and SNA or a Regime invasion in Idlib and is also waiting for a miracle in which the situation is so bad that if a large scale operation is launched against HRE in their controlled areas on the west of Euphrates the Russians will not bomb us or if we launch an operation against the YPG on the east of Euphrates the US would say "Man, this was really nasty shit, so we will be abandoning them and not ruin your economy with two words on prime TV, we will also cooperate with you against DEASH". Prayers to God and wishful thinking is in the basis of our policies. Funny, but not really

We are in a kind of a stalemate or a check from which only Hakan Fidan with the generous help from Allah can rescue us. And I am still not very positive on this

 

[Kartal1]

The PKK is continuing its escalations. In their latest infiltration attempt 5 SNA members were killed. Reinforcements from the Northern Brigade and the Sadr Brigade were sent on the Manbij frontline. TSK also brought heavy reinforcements in the are including tanks.

The SNA responded to these attacks by targeting PKK targets on the Tal Rifat line with FPV drones and recoilless rifle.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1832737023012057167

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1832753729751097505

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1832840896976486792

MIT targeted a vehicle belonging to the PKK on the Ayn Al Arab-Aleppo road. Looks like there was not a clean hit and the munition exploded by hitting the road. Three PKK terrorists including one leader are reported injured so far.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1832731044753088963

Meanwhile the US is continuing to reinforce its positions in Deir Ez-Zor in preparation for a standoff against the IRGC.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1832771166542364784

 

[Saithan]

So we can't do shit because AKP has reduced the decentralized reaction mechanism to be centralized around AKP / RTE.

 

[Kartal1]

So we can't do shit because AKP has reduced the decentralized reaction mechanism to be centralized around AKP / RTE.

These are the results of a pacifist policy throughout the Syrian Civil War.

I think there are 2 turning points in this. First is our inaction against DEASH while they were controlling the borders with Turkiye (and everybody was accusing us of supporting them) and the second is the fall of Aleppo. If we acted on these two I think we were not going to talk about many of the current problems we face today.

 

[Kartal1]

Well, I am not sure if there are any concrete steps that we plan on doing of this moment. The way I see it, there is no way we get victorious from all this mess. The best we can do is minimize the damage done.

In order to understand the position of the US and Russia in the way of bilateral agreements and understanding with Turkiye in Syria.

The US tries to legitimize its presence as a force that is fighting DEASH together with the SDF. There is still significant presence in the Badia desert, there are still issues like the Al-Hol camp and Deir Ez-Zor. The problem is that DEASH will not be totally destroyed. Currently they are very active and are wrecking havoc over the Regime. When it comes to Deir Ez-Zor they are still active trough small networks, but the SDF in coordination with the US is doing the necessary to contain them. Take a look at how beautiful these sentences sound . In fact what we see in Deir Ez-Zor is both DEASH, but also pressure against the local tribes (working with the IRGC) by labeling them as DEASH. So basically DEASH will never evaporate from there as long as false labeling exists. Prison breaks, riot within the Al-Hol camp are also a chance for an ISIS revival in the area. Just please when read this exact text try to read between the lines and you will understand what I am really talking about.

On the political side of things while the SDF made some progress, their whole system is more fragile than most of the people think. These elections etc will never have a real legitimacy and I don't even think they will hold them anytime soon. The only way the YPG can earn a certain level of legitimacy is trough Bafel Talabani in Iraq. We know that KDP and the Barzanis are not in a great shape so basically the throne in KRG is being prepared for the Talabanis. The way I see things is that there is a US-Iran struggle to win the love of the Talabanis as this may be critical in the future as trough Talabani and the SDF there is almost full control over the north of Iraq and the north of Syria. And while this is happening Bafel Talabani is continuing contacts with both traditionalists and reformists in the PKK represented by the new and popular YPG in Syria and his contacts of the traditionalist branch in Qandil.

Hi! @Saithan

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1833064243886702664

 

[Kartal1]

Ladies and Gentlemen!

I think I felt proud of the SNA for the first time after many years. Look at this beautiful usage of FPV and bomb dropping drones against enemy targets.

When it comes to the FPV drone usage I think the sensitivity of the munition should be increased or the fuse should be completely reworked. We've seen some unsuccessful attempts before and a bit of success here and there, but they are doing a very good job so far. The usage of the bomb dropping drones is at a sufficient level.

When these guys develop the techniques and tactics they need for even better drone usage I think we are talking about a serious force here. These VOG grenades are super easy to find and very cheap, meanwhile deadly as f*ck. The drone models are also very good looking to me, carrying 2 VOGs under the wing for even better results.

After the fine tuning of the drones finishes it will be even better. God job SNA! That's what we like to see.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1833169506719404076

 

[Saithan]

Ladies and Gentlemen!

I think I felt proud of the SNA for the first time after many years. Look at this beautiful usage of FPV and bomb dropping drones against enemy targets.

When it comes to the FPV drone usage I think the sensitivity of the munition should be increased or the fuse should be completely reworked. We've seen some unsuccessful attempts before and a bit of success here and there, but they are doing a very good job so far. The usage of the bomb dropping drones is at a sufficient level.

When these guys develop the techniques and tactics they need for even better drone usage I think we are talking about a serious force here. These VOG grenades are super easy to find and very cheap, meanwhile deadly as f*ck. The drone models are also very good looking to me, carrying 2 VOGs under the wing for even better results.

After the fine tuning of the drones finishes it will be even better. God job SNA! That's what we like to see.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1833169506719404076

It's worrying that they're improving like this, while everything we hear about their command structure and resilience and strenght to stand against HTS points to how weak they are, am I wrong ?

Hi! @Saithan

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1833064243886702664

I'm not that big a fan of reading between the lines, but I get the gist of it.

Even if the coalition soldiers make arrest of some SDF people, we still don't know if it's the right people or the people they didn't like that they got arrested.

So depending on who got arrested and what's going to happen to them. it'll just be a little cost for maintaining their whole operations.

 

[Kartal1]

It's worrying that they're improving like this, while everything we hear about their command structure and resilience and strenght to stand against HTS points to how weak they are, am I wrong ?


I'm not that big a fan of reading between the lines, but I get the gist of it.

Even if the coalition soldiers make arrest of some SDF people, we still don't know if it's the right people or the people they didn't like that they got arrested.

So depending on who got arrested and what's going to happen to them. it'll just be a little cost for maintaining their whole operations.

In response to the first statement, I don't think you are wrong. In comparison to the HTS they are way behind in many things, but it is still a good development. This new tactic after refined will bring some good results.

In regards to your second statement, I would like to clarify what I meant with my message "between the lines". The DEASH presence in the area is easily controllable and manageable. If the aim is to really destroy the DEASH they can do it, but this is not their aim. Their aim is to control the DEASH presence and influence in Syria strong enough to serve as a legitimizing factor for Coalition personnel presence and extended military assistance operations for the strengthening of the YPG/PKK, but still limited enough so it can present a danger for the servicemen and paramilitary allies so there can be the reports with the big headlines, names of leaders etc. I think 70% of the DEASH presence in the area is kept active on purpose and when activity drops or there are needs for some more headlines we get the "prison breaks", Al-Hol camp rebellions etc.

Now a "great" development:

NEW: A member of the Syrian delegation attended and listened to Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan’s speech at the Arab League summit, says Turkish diplomatic sources.

Al Arabiya had reported that Syrian delegation left the room, but apparently it isn’t correct

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1833501006136586409

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1833481626229096504

 

[Saithan]

So which is it ? Did they leave or stay and listen ?

 

[Sanchez]

Back to weird times.

Two claims, one saying Turkey is preparing an op against KCK in the north,

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1835622539093008782

Other saying Russia and SAA is preparing to attack northern Aleppo, mainly Mare. Turkish soldiers bled for Mare in 2016. As well as Peace Spring areas, north of Tel Tamr and Ayn Issa.

"According to the supporters of the YPG/PKK terrorist organization in Syria, Russia is allegedly preparing a major military operation against the northern countryside of Aleppo and the Shahba regions. According to the information leaked from the Hmeymim base, the first phase of the operation will start from the city of Marea, while the operation will be directed against the Turkish-controlled regions. YPG sources also claim that this step was taken after the lack of concrete progress in the dialogue between Turkey and the Syrian regime, which Moscow recently proposed.

In fact, the organization's sources also stated that YPG/PKK terrorist organization ringleader Abdi made a surprise visit to Shahba/Tel Rifaat region after Russia's claims, and that he is expected to visit Sheikh Maqsoud and Ashrafiyya neighborhoods in Aleppo city center, and that this visit was made to strengthen the YPG's preparations against possible developments in the region and to increase coordination with local forces.

HRE/PKK sources in Tal Rifaat: A major military operation prepared by Russian forces and Syrian regime forces is very close. The beginning of the war starts from Mare'a. We hope, God willing, that Marea will burn from big to small and Azaz from big to small. Organization sources say that the operation will start before October. The same thing is being said on the lines of Ain Issa and Tal Tamr.

Except for the news published by Yeni Şafak today in Ain Issa, there is no accounting for what has been said in the last month, the organization and the regime are completely intertwined from west of Tel Abyad to east of Ain Issa. The situation is already the same in Tal Rifaat. There are also abnormal movements on behalf of the SMO forces in the Euphrates Shield and Olive Branch regions. The HRE's cessation of infiltrations in the last 1-1.5 weeks may be a sign of this. According to local sources, many SMO groups are merging into a single group, as if in preparation.

If you ask me, there is not much truth in this kind of news, but it is always useful to keep information at hand."

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1835795322867532066

 

[Sanchez]

Other saying Russia and SAA is preparing to attack northern Aleppo, mainly Mare

Russian bombers over Idlib and SNA zones.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1837430011025834421

 

[MhhJA]

Hmeimim airbase was hit by the Israelis. That serves these pesky Russians right, they were nonstop alignin themselves with the Americans to hinder our operations in Syria. Besides that the planes that hit our soldiers in Idlib in 2020 departed from this airfield I wish we had destroyed it ourselves back then. But anyways lets hope that they will be at each other's throats and that it will serve our interests.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1841672049812504672