But, they will definitely hit their top speed to hightail it out of the area once they detect it on their radar though. So, it would most likely be cruise speed until detection then a sprint to get away. I wonder how much time that would give the target ship to move away.
Why the 2-Knot "Drifting" Test is Absolutely Significant:
The major and most important hurdle for an AShM is not the target's top speed. It is the fact that the target
is not stationary like a land coordinate.
Conventional ballistic missiles fly to predetermined GPS or inertial coordinates; GOLIS (GO to Location In Space). If a vessel drifts even slightly during the missile's 500 second flight through the upper atmosphere, the missile will miss the target.
When the TAYFUN Block 3 enters the denser atmospherelayers (approximately the last 20km) at hypersonic speeds, its terminal seeker head had to activate, see through extreme friction and possibly plasma shielding, to find the target, and guide the warhead.
A 7-meter Surface Vessel has a
tiny radar and optical signature compared to a 120+ metre military warship. Striking a target that small at hypersonic speeds requires incredible "surgical precision". By using a tiny, freely moving target,
Roketsan has actually proved that the missile's sensors and high-G steering fins could detect and track a tiny point on the surface of open seas.
Looking at it from that perspective, in fact, hitting a large naval frigate moving at 25 knots should technically be
much easier for the missile's guidance system than hitting a 7-meter drifting fishing boat. Plus such big ships having massive inertia, cannot change direction quickly. Thus making their position highly predictable to the missile's algorithm.
Looking at it mathematically, 25 knots mean the big frigate will be travelling at 13meres per second. Terminal dive of an AShBM would take 15 seconds. So the ship will have moved ~200 metres. That should be well within the lateral correction capability of modern AShBM steering fins.
By validating the terminal seeker head on a tiny, low-signature target like a 7m fishing boat, Roketsan has confirmed the missile family has graduated from standard land-attack to an operational AShBM capability. This effectively gives Türkiye an Anti-Access/Area-Denial (A2/AD) envelope covering the entire Black Sea and the Sea of Islands and more. Nothing East of Malta is safe on the surface of the seas if block 4 can do the same with an effective radius of 1000km.
That is the best deterrence for all our enemies apart from nuclear.