Navy OUTGOING PAKISTAN NAVY CHIEF SETS MASSIVE 50-SHIP FLEET VISION

Test7

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On 07 October 2020, the Pakistan Navy (PN) appointed Admiral Muhammad Amjad Khan Niazi as its new Chief of Naval Staff (CNS). Admiral Niazi will succeed Admiral Zafar Mahmoud Abbasi as CNS.

In his change-of-command speech, the outgoing CNS outlined the service’s modernization plans for 2030 across its surface, sub-surface, and aviation domains. Overall, Admiral Abbasi emphasized that the PN will aggressively expand its deployment capabilities, and, in parallel, its in-house development capacities.

The PN has already taken a number of organizational steps to absorb these upcoming changes.

First, the PN reformed its traditional destroyer and patrol craft squadrons into three Surface Task Groups (STG). The PN stationed STG 1, STG 2, and STG 3 at Gwadar, Ormara, and Karachi, respectively.

Second, the PN activated naval air stations in Pakistan’s west coast for day and night aviation operations.

Third, the PN revised its creeks area defence strategy to focus on offensive operations through integrated strike groups comprising of both Marines and Special Operations Forces (SOF) units.

Having set these foundations, Admiral Abbasi announced that the PN is working on the following goals.

Expanding the Surface Fleet to Over 50 Ships​

Historically, the PN would operate around eight or nine ‘major’ surface ships (i.e., multi-mission frigates, corvettes, or destroyers with a displacement of over 2,000 tons). However, Adm. Abbasi highlighted that these small force size “constrained [Pakistan’s] regional footprint and influence.”

To eliminate this constraint, the PN is moving towards a fleet of over 50 ships, of which 20 will be “major surface ships.” In terms of major surface combatants, Adm. Abbasi revealed that the PN will receive four Type 054A/P frigates from China between 2021 to 2023. In addition, the four MILGEM corvettes will join the PN fleet from 2023 to 2025. The PN inducted its first 2,300-ton “corvette” – which is based on Damen Shipyard’s OPV-1900 design – in early 2020, and the second ship, PNS Tabouk, will join in November. The outgoing CNS added that “six additional ships of larger tonnage are being contracted.”

Including the four F-22P frigates, the PN currently has 14 ‘major’ surface combatants in the pipeline. Thus, additional ships are still within the PN’s procurement pipeline. To this end, Adm. Abbasi had outlined two main programs: the Jinnah-class frigate and the purchase of six ships of “larger tonnage.”

Adm. Abbasi clarified that the PN is acquiring four MILGEM corvettes and that the Jinnah-class frigate is a separate, but adjoining, program. One should note that the MILGEM corvettes the PN is receiving are also significantly modified variants of the Turkish Ada-class design. The most notable difference is the addition of a 16-cell vertical launch system (VLS) in the PN ships (the standard Ada-class lacks this feature).

The outgoing CNS stated, “under the MILGEM project, complete design knowhow will be transferred” to the PN, and that the fifth ship will be the first Jinnah-class frigate. Currently, the Jinnah-class is under the design and development phase. Adm. Abbasi’s statements seem to imply that Pakistan bought ownership of both the modified corvette design and the forthcoming frigate program.

Launching the Hangor Submarine Program​

According to Adm. Abbasi, the Hangor submarine program is “progressing well.” Pakistan ordered these ships from China Shipbuilding & Offshore International Co. Ltd (CSOC) in 2015. In 2016, the PN stated that China and Pakistan would evenly split the production of the submarines. The first four ships – which China is building – will arrive in Pakistan in 2022 and 2023. KSEW’s four ships are due by 2028.

The outgoing CNS added that the PN is acquiring one Type 039A submarine from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) for training and acclimation purposes. He added that the PN is getting this submarine on a “gratis basis,” i.e., at no additional charge.

Finally, Ormara will house a repair and rebuild facility for the Hangor. Overall, Adm. Abbasi stated that a primary goal of the Hangor is to transform Pakistan from a “submarine-operating navy into a submarine-building navy,” i.e., to locally design and manufacture future submarines. He added that the program does involve design and capacity transfer to the Naval Research and Development Institute (NRDI).

In 2018, KSEW had showcased a scale model of the Hangor and some of its specifications. The information suggests that the Hangor is similar to the S26, i.e., the export version of the Type 039A.

Inducting New Long-Range Maritime Patrol Aircraft (LRMPA)​

Under its Naval Air Arm Vision, the PN intends to induct a total of three RAS-72 Sea Eagle maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) and 10 new jet-powered long-range maritime patrol aircraft (LRMPA).

The PN already operates two of the three RAS-72s; the third aircraft will join in 2021. Adm. Abbasi stated that the 10 new LRMPAs will replace the PN’s aging Lockheed Martin P-3C Orion aircraft. According to the outgoing CNS, the PN has already selected the platform and contracted the conversion project. He added that the LRMPA will use the same electronics suite as the RAS-72.

Pakistan began seeking a new LRMPA in 2018. Initially, the main criteria was that the base aircraft should be jet-powered, but otherwise, the PN was open to working with any supplier, including U.S. companies.

In March 2020, the PN released a tender for one twin-engine aircraft to work as the platform for the new LRMPA. Interestingly, the specifications listed in the tender narrowed the required aircraft to the Embraer Lineage 1000E. Based on the Embraer E190, the Lineage 1000E is a specially configured VIP/VVIP aircraft. However, Embraer no longer offers the aircraft itself, so it is only available on the second-hand market.

Enlarging Marines and Special Operations Forces​

Citing an elevated asymmetrical threat environment, the outgoing CNS revealed that under the PN Vision 2030 (which was approved in March 2018), the service will enlarge its Marines branch into a division-sized force. It already moved the Marines’ training center from Karachi to Gwadar. In addition, the Navy’s SOF unit – Special Service Group Navy (SSGN) – will also grow into a brigade-sized force by 2023.

Developing a New Anti-Ship Ballistic Missile (ASBM)​

Adm. Abbasi announced that the PN is developing a ‘long-range, ship-based anti-ship/land-attack’ ballistic missile (ASBM). Designated P282, the CNS stated that the ASBM is part of the PN’s “hypersonic domain” (likely in reference to a ballistic missile’s terminal-stage hypersonic speed).

Adding an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV)​

Finally, Adm. Abbasi disclosed that the PN signed a contract for “long-range, high-endurance” unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) with satellite communication (SATCOM) capability.

Maturing into a Large Navy​

Combined, the expansionary plans for the surface fleet, sub-surface force, and aviation wing will grow the PN into a large force.

 

VCheng

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Combined, the expansionary plans for the surface fleet, sub-surface force, and aviation wing will grow the PN into a large force.

And just how will such a large Navy be financed for both procurement and operations?
 

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The new Sugar Daddy may not be as generous as the previous one.

Absolutely. It will demand something in return. Greece handed over important trade ports in return for these aids. I do not know about Pakistan. Do you have a payment to China Except for money?
 

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Absolutely. It will demand something in return. Greece handed over important trade ports in return for these aids. I do not know about Pakistan. Do you have a payment to China Except for money?

If China wants it, Gawadar could be made available, I suspect.
 

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Absolutely. It will demand something in return. Greece handed over important trade ports in return for these aids. I do not know about Pakistan. Do you have a payment to China Except for money?
Farmland under cpec. Future food security.
 

Kaptaan

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This thread is just dribbling with hatred for Pakistan. The 50 ship is a aspiration. So everybody relax. Non of you are going to pay for this. And for the Indian's if Chinese 'help' is so toxic you guys should be jumping with joy. What you lot could not do in 70 years China will do for you by brankrupting, breaking, indenturing and turning Pakistan into it's satellite reflection as a athiest, authoritarian nightmare.
 

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Including the four F-22P frigates, the PN currently has 14 ‘major’ surface combatants in the pipeline. Thus, additional ships are still within the PN’s procurement pipeline. To this end, Adm. Abbasi had outlined two main programs: the Jinnah-class frigate and the purchase of six ships of “larger tonnage.”
they forgot to add the single Perry Class Frigate, the Alamgir. that makes 15 Surface combatants
 

VCheng

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Farmland under cpec. Future food security.

Given Pakistan's own overpopulation and its historically low yields, it will be a tall order for it to provide food security to China. A very tall order. But hey, we can dream. 50 ships! :D
 

Nilgiri

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However, to remain on topic. what do you reckon the costs would be to procure and maintain a fleet of 50 ships?

The article is kind of written a bit weird in bits. Anyway from what I looked up for major surface ships in PN:

What exists in service (10):

8 frigates. (4 F-22P , 3 Type 21 and 1 Perry)

2 corvettes (Yarmook class)

Commited to acquire (14):

8 more frigates (4 Type 054, 4 jinnah)

6 more corvettes (2 more yarmook and 4 Ada/MILGEM )

=======

That gets to about 24...and maybe 4 get retired by the time all the new acquisitions are finished maybe...to get the "20" that is talked about in the article (of the entire 50 which is implied to include "minor surface ships" of some definition which is unclear).

So maybe its all exactly what is already planned already and simply being restated?

The 4 Type 054 are expected to cost around 1.5 billion USD.

Assuming around same cost for the 4 jinnah class..i.e 1.5 billion USD

The corvettes I think can assume around 300 million each so that comes to 1.8 billion USD

So the 14 in total acquisition comes to 5 billion.

Weaponing, training and life time cost cycle probably adds twice this amount...so I would say around 15 billion (current USD) in total being somewhat conservative. We are looking at around 30 years of life I would say....so somewhat annualised to around 0.5 billion per year on top of existing commited navy budget (ofc excluding inflation which will ramp up with time).

I think current PN budget is around 0.9 billion per year to give you idea of impulse load of this planned acquisition (also not accounting for more frontloading costs this decade given acquisition+training etc compared to 30 year operation...ofc it can be smoothened out by good enough loan deal). This is all excluding submarine program and other program costs like MPA etc too. So its quite a significant increase.

@ANMDT probably can do better estimate.

As for what the definition and acquisition costs are for the remaining "minor" 30, I'm unsure....you could simply define as needed later to rubber stamp the 50 number with patrol ships and auxiliaries etc.

I would say the major surface ship aim (20) is of greater relevance for this decade compared to the 50 number.
 

Paro

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Given Pakistan's own overpopulation and its historically low yields, it will be a tall order for it to provide food security to China. A very tall order. But hey, we can dream. 50 ships! :D
Contract farming. We will see Chinese giving contracts to local farmers to sell their produce at a higher set price to their entities. This will drive the price of the food produce high in the local market but it’s a small price to pay in return for military aid, a veto in all major world forums.

Coming 2025 , food security is going to be largely impacted in China. China already started importing most of the crucial food source from outside since 2004 and it will only increase. They are even trying to hookup its population on fish since a decade (sending fishing trawlers half way around the word into the IOR off the coast of Pakistan, Somalia to Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Argentina).

In fact they have started contract farming in Ethiopia and Nigeria already as a poc since 2102. Do you remember the documents
Leaked about cepc also mentioned farmland.
 

Anmdt

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6 more corvettes (2 more yarmook and 4 Ada/MILGEM )
This is quite confusing, the published image was presented as Jinnah Class frigate, however ASFAT ,the shipyard states that 4 of the PN Milgem is under construction (2 in Turkey, 2 in Pakistan). So either there are total of 4 ships as Jinnah + PN Milgem ,or there is only 4 ships currently approved which is all Jinnah, which is actually PN Milgem.
Note:
Apparently, the 4 ships which is contracted for now is called PN Milgem and it is mentioned as such in documents. I was rather thinking this "PN Milgem" was the Jinnah class, but it was not.
8 frigates. (4 F-22P , 3 Type 21 and 1 Perry)
That one Perry can be kept out of numbers (even probably themselves are not counting it :) ), because it is not modernized -maintained and probably lacks the critical abilities. Also Type 21's are too old and likely to retire. and 4 F-22P might go through an MLU in next decade.

Assuming around same cost for the 4 jinnah class..i.e 1.5 billion USD
If i am not mistaken the project has costed around such including ToT and IP rights, but again the cost might be excluding some systems which is going to be purchased or provided by PN itself (Chinese or Pakistani subsystems). The actual price might be lower when Pakistan desires to built further ships on their own. And if they wish the prices can be further shrunk by replacing propulsion system and some other subsystems.

My personal comment, whenever somebody insists or talks about "numbers" to show size of their fleet, i just react "mehh". The number's doesn't matter, but the capabilities and fleet command structure matters the most. So, the numbers shouldn't be the goal.

And in overall, 20 major combatant, plus 30 minor combatant is not a dream,since probably those 30 would be FAC, Corvette sized ASW -ASuW ships in range of 50-70 meters and about 600 to 1200 tons of displacement and with weaker /cheaper sensors compared to those major 20.

4 of Type-54
4 of Type-22
4 of Yarmook -even if i don't count these as major assets- *
4 of PN Milgem
4 of Jinnah Class frigate

although, these 4 ships seem to have a strengthened mast for sensors, space for a CIWS -counter measures, EW suite, and 8* SSM ,may hint possible upgrades in the future, so with these modifications they can be counted in major surface assets.
 
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VCheng

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Contract farming. We will see Chinese giving contracts to local farmers to sell their produce at a higher set price to their entities. This will drive the price of the food produce high in the local market but it’s a small price to pay in return for military aid, a veto in all major world forums.

Coming 2025 , food security is going to be largely impacted in China. China already started importing most of the crucial food source from outside since 2004 and it will only increase. They are even trying to hookup its population on fish since a decade (sending fishing trawlers half way around the word into the IOR off the coast of Pakistan, Somalia to Atlantic Ocean off the coast of Argentina).

In fact they have started contract farming in Ethiopia and Nigeria already as a poc since 2102. Do you remember the documents
Leaked about cepc also mentioned farmland.

It's gonna take a LOT of potatoes and rice to pay for a 50 ship navy, methinks.
 

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