India Quad Archive

[500]

How will this affect the India Iran relationship?

Ironically after UAE made peace with Israel, UAE trade with Iran actually increased. Now UAE is #1 importer to Iran.

 

[Jackdaws]

Earlier related bit I made in quad thread:




However this one goes, hopefully they pick a different name to "Quad" again heh...

@500 @Philip the Arab et al.

Squad

 

[Zapper]

However this one goes, hopefully they pick a different name to "Quad" again heh...

Rod

 

[Nilgiri]

QUAD-West

I prefer "Arba"....i looked up number 4 in hebrew and arabic, they share the word for it approximately.

 

[Spook]

Ironically after UAE made peace with Israel, UAE trade with Iran actually increased. Now UAE is #1 importer to Iran.

For defence implications, UAE is an hub for going around embargoes, export licenses along with other Gulf countries. They import parts to UAE then to Iran.

 

[TR_123456]

Ironically after UAE made peace with Israel, UAE trade with Iran actually increased. Now UAE is #1 importer to Iran.

That will never be mentioned anywhere.

 

[Nilgiri]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1450309013082566661

 

[Nilgiri]

Ironically after UAE made peace with Israel, UAE trade with Iran actually increased. Now UAE is #1 importer to Iran.

Do you have a source for this?

OEC for 2019, lists the largest source of imports for Iran as:

China - 10 billion USD
UAE - 7 billion USD
India - 4 billion USD
Turkey - 2.6 billion USD

 

[Gessler]

"Turkish president Erdogan’s overweening ambitions, alienation of Israel and moderate Arabs, growing conflict with Greece and alignment with Pakistan presents India with opportunity to widen outreach to west of the Subcontinent."

Making a case for Indo-Abrahamic accord

C. Raja Mohan writes: Turkish president Erdogan’s overweening ambitions, alienation of Israel and moderate Arabs, growing conflict with Greece and alignment with Pakistan presents India with opportunity to widen outreach to west of the Subcontinent.

indianexpress.com

 

[500]

Do you have a source for this?

OEC for 2019, lists the largest source of imports for Iran as:

China - 10 billion USD
UAE - 7 billion USD
India - 4 billion USD
Turkey - 2.6 billion USD

The UAE is Iran's top trading partner in terms of imports and the country’s third-largest export partner, indicating that many Iranian companies have put trade with the UAE on the agenda.

Trade between Iran-UAE expected to hit $20b by Mar. 2022

TEHRAN – The value of trade between Iran and the United Arab Emirate (UAE) is expected to reach $20 billion by the end of the current Iranian calendar year 1400 (March 2022), according to the head of the Iran-UAE Joint Chamber of Commerce.

www.tehrantimes.com

 

[Nilgiri]

"Turkish president Erdogan’s overweening ambitions, alienation of Israel and moderate Arabs, growing conflict with Greece and alignment with Pakistan presents India with opportunity to widen outreach to west of the Subcontinent."

Making a case for Indo-Abrahamic accord

C. Raja Mohan writes: Turkish president Erdogan’s overweening ambitions, alienation of Israel and moderate Arabs, growing conflict with Greece and alignment with Pakistan presents India with opportunity to widen outreach to west of the Subcontinent.

indianexpress.com

To some degree....but we must also factor in a post-Erdogan Turkey which will be coming shortly likely.

 

[Gessler]

I can only speculate as to the US perspective in this, the others will work with it if they see common cause:

• Keep strategic Chinese investments & facilities out of Israel & UAE/GCC (like the terminal at Port of Haifa owned by CCP that's causing heartburn in DC)
• Keep China from supplanting the US' role as the main external backer (strategically & financially) of Israel
• Keep India from dependence on Iranian crude by substituting it permanently with GCC supply, probably making the current costly endeavor a bit dearer.

Beyond that they could be seeking to create common platform for controlling several emerging tech regulatory functions, keeping out Chinese 5G (and in future probably Chinese AI) etc like what the other Quad is doing now.

https://www.jpost.com/inter...

https://breakingdefense.com...

 

[Nilgiri]

I can only speculate as to the US perspective in this, the others will work with it if they see common cause:

• Keep strategic Chinese investments & facilities out of Israel & UAE/GCC (like the terminal at Port of Haifa owned by CCP that's causing heartburn in DC)
• Keep China from supplanting the US' role as the main external backer (strategically & financially) of Israel
• Keep India from dependence on Iranian crude by substituting it permanently with GCC supply, probably making the current costly endeavor a bit dearer.

Beyond that they could be seeking to create common platform for controlling several emerging tech regulatory functions, keeping out Chinese 5G (and in future probably Chinese AI) etc like what the other Quad is doing now.

https://www.jpost.com/inter...

https://breakingdefense.com...

Yeah well there are huge amount of port investments Chinese have made into Australia.....and they are a quad member.

PRC is and is going to be pretty big in UAE (just like India and West). No two ways around that...IMO.

Israel is very tight with US core state....PRC is much more cognisant to its limits with them. Feelers and forays like they do with some texas ports/shipping iirc....and likely will not be tied to the deep strategic plan like lot of other ones.

 

[Saithan]

Biden urged to avoid sanctions against India over Russian S-400 deal

Two U.S. senators have urged President Joe Biden to waive sanctions against India over its purchase of Russia’s S-400 air defense system, saying such a...

www.dailysabah.com

I hope this is the right place to post it

 

[Nilgiri]

HAL delivers the 200th gun bay door for Boeing F/A -18 Super Hornet

HAL looks forward to strengthening its association with Boeing on military and civil programmes, a company official said

www.business-standard.com

Hindustan Aeronautics Limited has delivered the 200th gun bay door for Boeing F/A-18 Super Hornet.

Bengaluru-headquartered HAL said it has been supplying the aero-structure to Boeing for the last ten years.


"HAL has a long-standing partnership with Boeing and we look forward to strengthening our association on military and civil programmes. We are prepared to collaborate with Boeing to boost manufacturing under the 'Atmanirbhar Bharat' and Make in India programmes," HAL CMD R Madhavan said.

"We see tremendous potential for India to contribute to the global aerospace industry as an industrial and technology partner. This partnership is a testimony to the world class capability of our industrial partners in the country," President, Boeing India, Salil Gupte, was quoted as saying in an HAL statement on Friday.

HAL said its Aircraft Division has been a trusted supplier to Boeing for the last three decades. The Division has supplied various aero-structures for Boeing's military and civil programmes such as the B757 Over-wing Exit Doors, 777 Up-lock Box, F/A-18 Wire Harness and F/A-18 Gun Bay Door, it was stated.

(Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)

 

[Gessler]

The move comes head of India’s delivery of the S-400 Triumf missile defence system from Moscow​

Three Republican Senators have introduced an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act FY2022 – an annual defence budget bill – to make it harder for the executive branch of the U.S. government to impose sanctions on members of the Quadrilateral Strategic Dialogue (Quad) for buying Russian arms. The move comes as India is expected to take delivery of the S-400 Triumf missile defence system from Moscow — possibly this month or next, potentially attracting sanctions under U.S. domestic law , the Countering Americas Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) of 2017.

Ted Cruz, Republican Senator for Texas​

The latest legislation , called the Circumspectly Reducing Unintended Consequences Impairing Alliances and Leadership (CRUCIAL) Act of 2021, requires the U.S. President to certify to “appropriate congressional committees” that a U.S. Quad partner country (India, Australia, Japan) is not cooperating on “security matters critical to the United States strategic interests,” prior to applying CAATSA sanctions on entities from that country. Effectively, this would mean the administration would have to say the Quad is dysfunctional, before imposing invoking CAATSA sanctions on its members.

The amendment is sponsored by Ted Cruz, a Republican Senator from Texas who is part of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, and co-sponsored by Republican Senators Todd Young (Indiana) and Roger Marshall (Kansas).

If the amendment goes through, this certification requirement will be in effect for ten years from the date of its passage.

While it is not certain that the amendment will pass, its introduction is one of several recent signals that some U.S. lawmakers have recently been sending the administration to convey their desire not to see India sanctioned under CAATSA.

“Now would be exactly the wrong time for President Biden to undo all of that progress through the imposition of these sanctions, which were meant to deter Russia. Doing so would accomplish nothing except undermining our shared security goals of combatting China’s aggression and forcing India to become dependent on Russia,” Mr. Cruz said in a statement.

S-400 'Triumpf' Air & Missile Defence System manufactured by Russia's Almaz-Antey​

Speaking to The Hindu, a Senate Republican aide said that lawmakers recognised the security situation India has with China.

India is at the “center” of the Quad countries “cooperating to counter China,” the aide said, and is “the only Quad member that actually shares a border with China, the only Quad member that has actually lost soldiers in combat with China.”

However, the authors’ intent is to also see a change in India’s procurement practices within a ten year time frame. “So I think I the consideration is that 2033-2034 and beyond, if India is still going to Russia, and is not taking steps to deepen ties with the Quad, I think that's when it would be a different conversation,” the aide said. “So I do think there needs to be steps taken over time.”

U.S. Senators introduce amendment supporting CAATSA sanctions waiver for India

The move comes head of India’s delivery of the S-400 Triumf missile defence system from Moscow

www.thehindu.com

Other reads on the subject from various points of view, including one from Politico with some insider sources:

GOP supports India waiver on Russian weapons purchase

www.politico.com

Senate bill introduced asking President Biden to certify QUAD countries with CAATSA sanctions not participating on security matters

(This story has not been edited by THE WEEK and is auto-generated from a PTI

www.theweek.in

++++

COMMENTS:​

While it's best to reserve comments until after the CAATSA issue with regard to India is decided one way or the other, I currently have two hypotheses about the situation as it stands (in light of the new amendment introduced by Ted Cruz and others, as well as the earlier activities by both Rs & Ds seeking a waiver, including D Sen. Mark Warner, chairman of the India Caucus):

a) the Biden administration was planning to impose some form of watered-down version of CAATSA so as it avoid the spectacle of "double-standards" or "exceptionalism", while continuing to work with India on platforms where it is crucial such as QUAD, and perhaps continuing arms sales & strategic relations. This may have been unacceptable to the Indian Govt as it could still prove to be enough fuel for both the Russian lobby & the so-called "Non-Aligned" lobby to drive a permanent wedge between India & the US on public platforms, which in turn may prove detrimental to the national security interests of both India, the US and even the other two QUAD states.

Pro-India lobbies across party lines may have been set in motion to prevent this from happening and to grant the waiver, while upping the stakes by making it clear that if CAATSA, in whatever form, were to be imposed, it will have negative effects across the spectrum - including in QUAD as well as the crucial Vaccine collaboration that is forming with the aim of edging out Chinese 'vaccine diplomacy' in South-East Asia & elsewhere.

b) the decision to grant a waiver (which only the President and/or Secy of State can do AFAIK) may have already been reached internally, but in order to avoid the spectacle of this being a "unilateral" foreign policy decision which again brings with it the spectacle of double-standards and/or exceptionalism, there is political gimmickry afoot to make the waiver seem as a Republican proposal, and by accepting it, an image of the waiver decision being reached as a result of bipartisan consensus can be created - alleviating the potential risk of problem actors from both ends of the political spectrum from raking up the issue at a future point to put the Biden administration's foreign policy in a spot.

Your views @Nilgiri ?

 

[SavageKing456]

Keep a check on the US too,these guys would be first one to betray.
Better we use US get all the technology stuff,improve our economy and dump them

 

[Jackdaws]

It's a quid pro quo. Indian Americans are a powerful and rich lobby (not in terms of number) but certainly in monetary terms. This bill will get bipartisan support.

 

[HTurk]

It'll never go through.

 

[Jackdaws]

It'll never go through.

Why not? It will have bipartisan support.