I want to look past the next step and rethink where all this is actually going and where should we be focusing instead. Propulsion wise.
Directed energy weapons feel like the direction things are heading, though there are plenty of hurdles.
Laser weapons benefit a lot from high-altitude operation — the higher, the better. Lower altitude means fighting through thick storm cloud cover, thermal protection, and laser-reflective coatings, which makes it much harder to destroy incoming missiles or fighter jets fast enough. Even if radar picks up a target while it's still inside cloud cover, thermal blooming dissipates the laser's energy in denser air. And on the platform side, air-breathing jet engines need much bigger air intakes at high altitude, since the air is thinner there.
Combining high-altitude positioning with space-based radar coverage could be a real game-changer — effectively an always-on global AWACS. SpaceX has already built Starshield, its military-focused satellite line, and it's a safe bet that capability keeps expanding. Lasers are most efficient at high altitude, so if you can generate power for them via space-based solar and store it with better battery technology, you start to get toward serious global reach — potentially making fighter jets and ground-based air defense far less central than they are today.
I also think Raptor, or something even better, could eventually reshape parts of the aviation industry — not as an "engine" for planes, but through Starship-style point-to-point travel replacing some long-haul routes. If SpaceX gets to very high launch cadences over the next couple of decades, economies of scale could make that kind of travel dramatically cheaper and faster than commercial flight. Right now Starship has flown only a handful of times, so this is still a bet on a steep trajectory rather than something already happening — but if it plays out, are we investing in aviation the way people invested in propeller planes right before jets took over?
I think we're at risk of badly underestimating how fast this shifts — and not seeing it until it's already happened.