Turkey-Maghreb: how Ankara pushes its pawns (By French Magazine Jeune Afrique)

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TRANSLATED FROM FRENCH:
2020 Article posted due to ongoing interest on the topic


Turkey-Maghreb: how Ankara pushes its pawns
September 02, 2020 at 4:57 pm | By Frida Dahmani and Larissa Samba
Updated on September 02, 2020

Le président turc Recep Tayyip Erdogan en visite à Tunis, aux côtés de son homologue tunisien Kaïs Saïed, le 25 décembre 2019.

For several years, the Turks have worked to strengthen their ties with Algiers, Tunis and Rabat. A strategy all the more crucial as Recep Tayyip Erdogan has engaged his country on several fronts in the region.

Gateway to the African market, the Maghreb is not terra incognita for Turkey. Diplomacy, trade, soft power ... Morocco, and especially Algeria and Tunisia - once Ottoman - have for several years been the subject of special attention from Ankara. This desire for a climate of trust is redoubled today, as Turkey ardently defends its interests and needs support more than ever.


This is the case in Syria, where it is working to guarantee its border against any presence of the PYD (Kurdish separatists). This is also the case in Libya, where she is scrambling to help Council President Fayez al-Sarraj, whose legitimacy is recognized by the UN, to triumph over what she calls "the putschist pirate Haftar". This is finally the case in the eastern Mediterranean, where it sends ships to prospect in gas-rich areas also claimed by Greece.

Faced with criticism from the EU, which supports Athens, and the boasting of Egypt, which threatens to send troops to Libya, Ankara is trying to convince Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco of the legitimacy of its actions, failing to bring them out of their prudent neutrality.

Mevlüt Çavusoglu, Turkish Foreign Minister, telephones his Algerian counterpart Sabri Boukadoum every day, who was received yesterday in Ankara by his counterpart and Turkish President Erdogan. The latter is also working on his relations with his new Algerian and Tunisian peers, and is considering a visit to Morocco, the organization of which promises to be delicate.

Tunisia: pro-Turkish tropism
A revolution, sixty-four years of independence and seventy-five years of French protectorate do not seem to have erased three hundred years of Ottoman presence from the memory of Tunisians. Even Bourguiba, yet very attached to the sovereignty of independent Tunisia, did not hide his admiration for the modernity instilled by Mustafa Kemal Atatürk. In 2020, it is rather Recep Tayyip Erdogan who is the example to follow for Tunisian Islamists. But it's not just about ideology; in Tunisia, the pro-Turkey tropism is a reality.

“It’s an affordable, visa-free destination. For Tunisians, going to Istanbul is a must ", explains a tour operator, who recalls that the Turkish megalopolis has long been one of the most popular shopping destinations for Tunisian customers.

Those days are over and have given way to the flow of business. Since the revision in 2013 of the free trade agreement in force since 2005, things have not changed in Tunisia's favor. The elimination of customs taxes on certain food, consumption and equipment products widened, at the end of 2019, a trade deficit of $ 913 million with Turkey, or 38.5% of Tunisia's external debt service.

Tunisia is also struggling to sell its production, especially agricultural, in Turkey. “We have similar products; selling olive oil to Turks is absurd, ”said an olive grower from Mahdia. He storms against the Tunisian Ministry of Commerce, which allows Turkish agri-food products to compete with local production.

Turkish investors not very interested in Tunisia
The situation is such that even Ali Onaner, the Turkish ambassador in Tunis, wants a rebalancing. It will have a lot to do in view of the low attractiveness of Tunisia for Turkish investors: out of 3,455 foreign companies established in the country, only 25 are Turkish. They work in services, international trade and tourism, for a total investment of 138 million dollars.

Ankara sees Tunisia as an open door to Africa, but counted on an electoral victory for the Islamists of Ennahdha to frankly advance its pawns. The Tunisian elections in October 2019 turned things upside down. This did not prevent President Erdogan from making a surprise visit to Carthage in December 2019, during which he exchanged views with his Tunisian counterpart, Kaïs Saïed, before launching his anti-Haftar offensive. in Libya.

Difficult to see clearly in this relationship of fascination-rejection between Turks and Tunisians. “On the political level, Erdogan’s attempts to interfere with him as much as the servility of the Islamists towards him,” notes a left-wing observer. It is different in everyday life, where the attraction of Tunisians for the Sublime Porte - or rather for a dream Turkey - is largely satisfied by Turkish soap operas and a kind of nostalgia for the pageantry of the Beylical period.

"At that time, the state apparatus was functioning," assures a detractor of the revolution. The craze is such that some institutions offer Turkish lessons, while kebabs and ice cream parlors abound alongside "made in Turkey" clothing stores. "This destroyed our clothing sector, but it is a fashion that will pass," said a former leader of the textile federation, who assures us, stoically: "We will find our senses when our debt has become unsustainable and the politics will not be able to remedy this. "

Algeria: nostalgia and realpolitik
The restoration, by Tika (the Turkish development agency), of the Ketchaoua mosque in Algiers illustrates the role that Turkey intends to play in this Algeria which was an Ottoman province: that of a benevolent friend who exalts the nostalgia of a common past, without losing sight of realpolitik and business acumen. Five hundred years of history link the two countries, since that day in 1519, when
Hayreddin Barbarossa proposed the attachment of the regency of Algiers to the Sublime Porte, until June 30, 2020, when Ankara donated to Algeria a whole medical arsenal to fight against the coronavirus.

Four official trips by Recep Tayyip Erdogan as Prime Minister (2006 and 2013), then as President (2014 and 2020), as well as the signing of a friendship and cooperation agreement (2006) consolidated the bilateral relationship and boosted trade, which amounts to around 4 billion dollars, making Algeria the second partner (after Egypt) of Turkey in Africa.
Le couple présidentiel turc accueilli par le chef de l’État algérien, Abdelmadjid Tebboune,le 26 janvier 2020, à Alger.

With nearly 800 companies in the country, the Turks are the main foreign employers there (28,000 people) and, apart from the hydrocarbons sector, the main investors (3.5 billion dollars). Fuat Tosyali, the Turkish steel magnate, whose holding company has operated in Algeria since 2007, heads the local branch of Deik, the Council for Foreign Economic Relations. Close to Erdogan, the 59-year-old plays a key role at the crossroads of business and politics.

Turkey is of course present in its favorite sectors (construction, steel, textiles), but also in agrifood and energy. Algeria is its fourth gas supplier. Thus, Sonatrach is linked to the Turkish Botas by an agreement which provides for the annual delivery of 5.4 billion m3 of liquefied natural gas until 2024. The national company is also working with the Rönesans group on the construction of a petrochemical plant near Adana (southern Turkey), which should open in 2022. Project cost: $ 1.4 billion.

Of course, the “Turkish model”, from the economically successful television series of the past fifteen years, does not leave Algerians indifferent. Big buyers of weapons, they are interested in the Turkish combat drones Bayraktar, which have proved their worth in Libya, as well as the armored vehicles of the manufacturer BMC - from which Tunisia has bought nine units.

On the political side, the agreement, generally good, is complicated by the competition between Paris and Ankara, which are opposed on many issues (Libya, Eastern Mediterranean ...). Erdogan did not hesitate to castigate France's colonial crimes, to the "surprise" of the Algerian authorities, unwilling to see a third party interfere in their complex relations with Paris. On the other hand, when it comes to Syria, Algiers has aligned itself (like its old Russian comrade) with Bashar al-Assad's camp, which Turkey is fighting.

The current passes between Algerian President Tebboune and Erdogan
However, the current is going quite well between the heads of state of Algeria and Turkey, who met for the first time in January, on the occasion of the Berlin conference on Libya. During their tête-à-tête, Abdelmadjid Tebboune invited Erdogan to Algeria - an invitation that the latter honored a few days later.

Much has been said about Libya, where Russia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates are actively assisting Haftar, and where Qatar and Turkey are equally active supporters of the Tripoli-based Government of National Unity (GNA).

The Algerians wish to play the mediators, if not a major diplomatic role, in the resolution of the conflict. Then, sharing 1,000 km of borders with Libya, they worry about the repercussions that the Libyan chaos could have on their own security. These two factors explain why, while they clearly lean in favor of al-Sarraj, like the Turks, they nonetheless persist in displaying a facade of neutrality.

Morocco: chronicle of an announced warming
"The next visit of our president to Morocco should be significant," said a relative of Recep Tayyip Erdogan, commenting on the invitation that Mohammed VI extended to the Turkish head of state in September 2019 as a sign of relaxation. To say that this trip will be carefully prepared is an understatement. Because, if in 2005, Erdogan - then Prime Minister - had been received with all the honors, it had not been the same in 2013
Les ministres des Affaires étrangères Mevlüt Çavusoglu (à g.) et Nasser Bourita, le 12 décembre 2019, à Rabat.

While Gezi's revolt shook his authority and blurred his image on the international scene, the king had not received him, and Moroccan businessmen had also shunned him, leading him to cut his stay short.

Between the Commander of the Faith, perhaps too close to the West in Ankara's eyes, and a Turkish president, perhaps too close to the Muslim Brotherhood according to the Palace, relations have not returned to good shape, even if the two parties now seem eager to improve them. “Some are trying to influence Her Majesty. Undoubtedly the north wind… ”, slips a Turkish diplomatic source, in an allusion to France.

Free Trade Agreement and Frictions
However, and even though Morocco is the Maghreb country with which Ankara has the least affinities, the "Turkish miracle" and the AKP's longevity in power arouse some admiration, at least in the ranks of the PJD. There is no doubt that the visit - through the front door - of President Erdogan will eventually materialize. Ankara's position in the Western Sahara case is likely to facilitate it. "Like most chancelleries," says another Turkish diplomatic source, Turkey is on the line with Morocco, even if it is careful not to make strong statements in order to spare the Algerians.

On the trade front, the entry into force of a free trade agreement in 2006 was a source of progress ... and the subject of some friction. Trade increased from 435 million dollars in 2004 to 2.7 billion in 2018. More than 150 Turkish companies, which employ 8,000 Moroccans, are installed in the kingdom, whose skies are assiduously crisscrossed by Turkish Airlines.

Logically, the trade balance tilts by $ 1.9 billion in favor of Turkey, whose exports (iron and steel, textiles, industrial vehicles) far exceed those of Morocco (phosphoric acid, fertilizer, lead, leather, pulp).

Result: At the beginning of this year, Rabat threatened to withdraw from the free trade agreement, leading Ruhsar Pekcan, the Turkish Minister of Commerce, to promise that it would be revised and to call on his compatriots to invest in Morocco. . At the center of the dispute, Turkish textiles and clothing, whose imports, already taxed at 27% since January, have been at 36% since July 27, under the corrective Moroccan finance law.



Turkey / Algeria : Flags , Presidents Erdogan / Tebboune


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