Turkish Economy & Updates

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Even a non turk knows better about Turkish economy then so called economy expert akp supporters here

They are not AKP supporter, they are Erdogan supporters. True Islamist will care their AKP future than Erdogan.
 

HTurk

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Why does every idiot who wants their nation to be the "next China" forget that China has 1.5 BILLION PEOPLE and their labor force are essentially slaves?

If it was, I don't know, Modi saying something like that, I could at least nod my head and say "OK, well that's possible for India if stupid" but Turkey...come on.
Copying the Chinese model would be the best thing the government can do for the future of our country and nation. Having said this, the decision makers are overlooking the simple reality of living in the 21st century with all its unique requirements.

You have to make some adjustments to the times you live in. If you copy a system from the 60's in the year 2021 without major alteration, you'll end up out of office which is going to happen to AKP unless CHP makes some huge strategic mistakes like nominating that minion called Kılıçdaroğlu.

Keep in mind that Turkey, indeed, has similar advantages to China. Turkish industrial goods don't face any hurdles if you're exporting to the enormous European market next door. Goes to show you how the government failed miserably.
 

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All of them are in debts, all of them don't care about tomorrow, almost every single one in Turkey outright sees working as something bad or dirty. They don't have no work ethics or moral compass. They wait in line for the next credit, mortgage, installment even though they know precisely that paying back is simply not possible.

Whatever happens to them economically, they deserve worse.

How can you hate your people collectively like this?

Just to justify what AKP is inflicting on them?

Every single bad habit you mention can be reformed by a govt with correct policy BTW.

Maybe you can ask why AKP has indulged these bad habits instead (and now doing lunacy on top)...and done nothing to reform them from inside out for 20 years now.

Saying "no work ethic and no moral compass" implies they are unfixable and immutable to Turks.

That is racist/bigoted.

People are same everywhere in world fundamentally (we are all Homo Sapiens species)....the system to organise them is what varies and often carry historic legacy and contexts in the present.
 

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Let’s not forget who forced the banks to give loans to people during pandemic and even before. Instead of solving the problem they just added more to the pile of loans.
 

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@Nilgiri as you pointed out RTE thinks he is following in the footsteps of China. This should have been done 30 years ago. Doing now is not going to work, especially not since RTE isn't able to create same trust and reliability of China with regards to FDI and investors.

Turkey should/would have been able to jump into the middle to high tech segment with proper management, but that was not done. So we clear the table and start all over (not really, but the analog should give you an idea of what's being done).

You got to get capital account (investment + long term related) squared away and solid before you go flexing on current account strategy/tactics.

Its economics 101. You have to do things from the inside out (than outside in).

It is the equivalent of putting gas in the tank and bringing jerry cans if needed for a long car ride (with few gas stations).

Scrambling and all kind of dissonant "throw darts and see what sticks" is the unfortunate reality of current TR govt.

The tank has no fuel....

The govt rather stop other cars and siphon fuel temporarily from those.....and does not use that loaned fuel to get to gas station (equivalent of forming cogent coherent capital account strategy to "fill up").....but instead go in wasteful joy ride again....

There is no accountability and sane direction here. The car is fairly well built one, the highways are well known....but the drivers are dumb/reckless. Long overdue to replace them.
 

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Oh well.

Maybe it's a bone thrown to RTE so the talks can get back on track. Result of RTE tantrum = negative gain.
 

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Oh well.


Maybe it's a bone thrown to RTE so the talks can get back on track. Result of RTE tantrum = negative gain.
%21.3 based on TUIK

And thıs is from independent research group

 

Turko

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Fitch Revises Turkey's Outlook to Negative; Affirms at 'BB-'​

Thu 02 Dec, 2021


HIGH

The central bank's premature monetary policy easing cycle and the prospect of further rate cuts or additional economic stimulus ahead of the 2023 presidential election have led to a deterioration in domestic confidence, reflected in a sharp depreciation of the Turkish lira, including unprecedented intra-day volatility, and rising inflation. These developments create risks to macroeconomic and financial stability and could potentially re-ignite external financing pressures.

After the 2018 and 2020 crises, Turkey enters this new period of stress from a vulnerable position, with a high degree of uncertainty regarding the economic authorities' policy reaction function, high external financing requirements, deteriorating inflation dynamics and weakened external buffers.

The central bank lowered its main policy rate to 15% in November (cutting by a total of 400bp since September) despite rising inflation (19.9% yoy in October) and the tightening of external financing conditions. As a result, real rates ex-post have fallen deep into negative territory (-4.9%) from 2.75% in March, weakening domestic confidence and increasing demand for FX. The central bank has repeatedly changed its policy guidance in recent months from a commitment to maintaining positive real rates to focusing on core inflation dynamics, and more recently on narrowing the current account deficit. Fitch considers that the recently announced central bank intervention in the FX market, if sustained, will not by itself address the main causes behind the depreciation pressures and risks further undermining the already weak central bank international reserves' composition.

The lira has depreciated by 46% against the US dollar since the beginning of the year and 38% since September, including days of large intra-day volatility. Negative real rates, the absence of policy guidance, statements by government officials arguing for a weaker lira as part of an economic development strategy and rising inflation and inflation expectations will maintain pressure on the currency.

We forecast inflation to reach 25% by end-2021 and remain one of the highest among rated sovereigns, averaging 20% in 2022-2023. A weaker lira, high international commodity prices and rising inflation expectations create upside risks to our inflation projections. According to the central bank's latest survey, median 12-month inflation expectations have increased by 350pp to 16% since August and 540bp since the beginning of the year.

There is a high degree of uncertainty regarding the timing and type of policy response due to the public statements of government authorities, including the president, in favour of low rates and a weaker lira, and the increased visibility of political interference in the central bank decisions and management. Maintaining a deeply negative real policy rate could further undermine domestic confidence, increasing risks for financial stability, for example if depositor confidence is shaken, and potentially jeopardise the until now resilient access of banks and corporates to external financing.

Moreover, the focus of the government on supporting faster commercial credit growth, a key rationale behind the easing cycle in Fitch's view, and the prospect of significant real wage increases for 2022 could reverse the improvement in the current account (forecast to halve to 2.5% of GDP in 2021) and increase external financing pressures. External debt maturing over the next 12 months amounts to USD168 billion (end-September), with the majority related to banks and corporates. Mitigating factors include a record of continued access to external financing through periods of stress and reduced private sector external leverage.

MEDIUM

The proximity of the 2023 electoral cycle will have an impact on policy direction and expectations of economic actors, in Fitch's view. The president has re-emphasised his opposition to high interest rates despite the fall in the lira and his influence on monetary policy has become more visible. Additional monetary easing or economic stimulus may risk exacerbating macroeconomic instability, which seems to have damaged government support in 2020, and creating risks to social stability and increased political polarisation.

We forecast general government debt to increase significantly to 47% of GDP in 2021, driven mostly by the lira depreciation, up from our August forecast of 39% but still below the forecast 58% of GDP 'BB' median. The fiscal deficit is likely to outperform peers and the government's 2021 revised fiscal target of 3.5% of GDP, and we forecast that the deficit will remain below rating peers in 2022-2023. Debt dynamics will remain vulnerable to increased currency risks, as 60% of central government debt was foreign currency linked or denominated in October 2021, up from 39% in 2017. Government debt amortisations are manageable, averaging 2.5% of GDP in 2022-2023 and the sovereign has a record of access to external bond markets despite repeated periods of stress in recent years.

Although GDP growth is strong relative to peers, including 1.8% of GDP in 2020 and Fitch's forecast of 10.5% in 2021, GDP per capita in US dollar terms has deteriorated since 2013, falling by almost USD4,000 to a forecast USD8,500 in 2021, due to the multi-year weakening of the currency, putting additional downward pressure on Turkey's credit profile. There is a is high degree of uncertainty regarding our 3.5% growth projection for 2022. Stimulus from the recent monetary policy easing and additional credit support measures announced will be balanced by the reduced impact of monetary policy on local financing costs, deterioration in consumer and investor sentiment, and the negative impact of a weaker exchange rate, including reduced consumer purchasing power.

Turkey's 'BB-' IDRs also reflect the following key rating drivers:-

Turkey's ratings reflect weak monetary policy credibility, high inflation, low external liquidity in the context of high financing requirements and geopolitical risks. These credit weaknesses are set against low government deficits and debt and a record of strong growth performance and structural indicators, such as GDP per capita and Human Development, relative to rating peers.

External financing pressures eased in 2021 due to a narrowing current account deficit, moderately higher international reserves, and banks and corporates' uninterrupted access to sufficient external finance to roll-over large debt payments.

International reserves have recovered due to strong export revenues, net external borrowing and the increase of the FX swap with China and a new one with South Korea, as well as USD6.4 billion IMF SDR allocation. We forecast reserves to reach USD119 billion at end-2021, but decline in 2022-2023 to USD111 billion, given continued current account deficits and financial dollarisation, and the limited upside for portfolio inflows, in our view.

Turkey's reserve buffers, at 4.8 months of current external payments in 2021, are low compared with 6.6 months for the 'BB' median, and relative to the country's large external financing requirement, high deposit dollarisation and the risk of changing investor sentiment. In addition, the underlying position of international reserves remains weak. Net reserves (net of FX claims, mainly from Turkish bank placements) reached USD25 billion in mid-November (still considerably below the USD41.1 billion at end-2019), and reserves net of FX swaps with local banks remain negative.

The banking system has demonstrated resilience to financial market stress, most recently in March, although risks to banks' Standalone Credit Profiles remain significant. The relative stickiness of deposits during periods of stress in recent years is a supportive factor for the rating. In addition, the banking sector's available foreign-currency liquidity is sufficient to meet its short-term foreign currency debt, in particular when adjusting the latter for more stable sources of funding such as intra-group facilities and parent funding.

Nevertheless, the banking sector remains vulnerable to exchange-rate volatility due to the impact on capitalisation, asset quality, refinancing risk (given short-term foreign-currency financing) and high deposit dollarisation (56% including precious metals). The banking sector has increased its exposure to the sovereign both through government debt holdings (71% of domestic debt) and FX swaps with the central bank.



Geopolitical risks will remain elevated, but existing sanctions have so far had a limited impact on the economy. In addition to the tensions created by Turkey's purchase of Russian-made S-400 missiles, and US cooperation with Kurdish forces in Syria, the relationship with the US has several potential flash points. Similarly, relations with the EU remain complex, including issues related to Cyprus, and operations in northern Syria, Libya and the sale of arms to Ukraine could represent additional sources of tension with Russia.





ESG - Governance: Turkey has an ESG Relevance Score (RS) of '5' for both Political Stability and Rights and for the Rule of Law, Institutional and Regulatory Quality and Control of Corruption. Theses scores reflect the high weight that the World Bank Governance Indicators (WBGI) have in our proprietary Sovereign Rating Model. Turkey has a medium WBGI ranking at 37, reflecting a recent track record of peaceful political transitions, a moderate level of rights for participation in the political process, moderate but deteriorating institutional capacity due to increased centralisation of power in the office of the president and weakened checks and balances, uneven application of the rule of law and a moderate level of corruption.

RATING SENSITIVITIES​

Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to negative rating action/downgrade:​



-Macro: A policy response that fails to ease or exacerbates macroeconomic and financial stability risks such as an inflation-exchange rate depreciation spiral or weaker depositor confidence.

-External Finances: Re-intensification of balance of payments pressures, including a sustained reduction in international reserves, deterioration of the current account balance or reduced access to external financing, for example due to further loss of investor confidence in light of economic policy measures

-Structural features: A serious deterioration in the domestic political or security situation or international relations that severely affects the economy and external finances.

-Public finances: A marked worsening in the government debt/to GDP ratio or broader public sector balance sheet.



Factors that could, individually or collectively, lead to positive rating action/upgrade:​



-Macro: A credible and consistent policy response that stabilises confidence and reduces macroeconomic and financial stability risks, for example by reigning in inflationary pressures.

- External Finances: A reduction in external vulnerabilities, for example evident in a sustained improvement in the current account balance, stronger external liquidity position and reduced dollarisation.

- Structural: A reduction in geopolitical risks for example from the conflict in Syria, and from US sanctions, which would cause the removal of the -1 QO notch on Structural Features.
 

Ravenman

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Shame that a country with 83 million people cant work or consume. They dont work (thea-and coffeehouses are always full by broad daylight in every city and village across the country, not only this year, but since the nineties visit Turkey).

Firms and stores looking for personel everywhere, but the youth doesnt work because they dont like the salaries or they have 'no time' because of their study, but they got time enough for chitchat, football, hookah, bardancing and youtube interviews at street.

Go to a mall at a midweek day in Europe and you see no one. Go to a mall at a midweek day in Turkey and its is Thanksgiving, Christmas and St. Patrick's Day combined.

No one likes working but o yeah they like horse races, bankloans, creditcards, crypto and gambling. And every summerseason they wait for the tourists and European Turks to bring foreign money and spend it for the economy.

Turkey is Greece 2.0
 

tornadoss

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Shame that a country with 83 million people cant work or consume. They dont work (thea-and coffeehouses are always full by broad daylight in every city and village across the country, not only this year, but since the nineties visit Turkey).

Firms and stores looking for personel everywhere, but the youth doesnt work because they dont like the salaries or they have 'no time' because of their study, but they got time enough for chitchat, football, hookah, bardancing and youtube interviews at street.

Go to a mall at a midweek day in Europe and you see no one. Go to a mall at a midweek day in Turkey and its is Thanksgiving, Christmas and St. Patrick's Day combined.

No one likes working but o yeah they like horse races, bankloans, creditcards, crypto and gambling. And every summerseason they wait for the tourists and European Turks to bring foreign money and spend it for the economy.

Turkey is Greece 2.0

Again a nonsense rhetoric to whitewash the failure of government. Yes people are responsible with current situation by repeatedly selecting akp. Two weeks ago a teacher who couldn't found a job as teacher died in a construction site. Government opened tons of universities unnecessarily without any need, any planning. Now people are graduating and there is no open vacancy for that profession. People want to do the job which they get educated for. Turkey lack of skilled workers for industry. The government should have been lean more on vocational schools, but they preferred to making investment on universities and imam hatips.
 

Turko

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Again a nonsense rhetoric to whitewash the failure of government. Yes people are responsible with current situation by repeatedly selecting akp. Two weeks ago a teacher who couldn't found a job as teacher died in a construction site. Government opened tons of universities unnecessarily without any need, any planning. Now people are graduating and there is no open vacancy for that profession. People want to do the job which they get educated for. Turkey lack of skilled workers for industry. The government should have been lean more on vocational schools, but they preferred to making investment on universities and imam hatips.
Turkish economy isn't able to create new vacancies. This year age of 3 million Turkish people have became labour age, but there's no new vacancies . Unemployment is rising because of Due to the cumbersome structure of the Turkish economy.

İ am not just speaking about current job positions and vacancies. İf currently unemployed were zero and everybody had a job it would mean full labour market.

İ mean creating new jobs. İt's just subject to investment in technology not in construction works.https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Bulten/Index?p=Isgucu-Istatistikleri-Ocak-2021-37486

İt's a hate crime is committed by insulting generation Z of Turkish Nation...
Z kuşağı pis z kuşağı tembel . Hoca uzanamadığı dala mundar dermiş.
 
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Saithan

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Qatar: We are evaluating the opportunities that will arise in Turkey due to the economic situation​

President Erdogan landed in Qatar while the budget negotiations were going on. Foreign Minister Çavuşoğlu stated that they did not seek financial support in Qatar, while Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdurrahma Es-Sani said that they evaluated the opportunities that would arise due to Turkey's economic course.​

06 December 2021 22:28Updated: 07 December 2021 01:37
Qatar: We are evaluating the opportunities that will arise in Turkey due to the economic situation




The depreciation of the Turkish lira has set the eyes of foreign investors on Turkey.
According to the news of BBC Turkish; Qatari Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdurrahma Es-Sani said that they are evaluating the opportunities that will arise due to Turkey's economic course.

Emphasizing that Qatar's investments in Turkey are large and positive, Es-Sani said, "This crisis is a temporary one. I hope it will be overcome."
Speaking at the press conference held in Doha with his counterpart, Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu stated that he did not agree with the question asked by a journalist regarding the Turkish economy.

Emphasizing that the journalist paints a very pessimistic picture, Çavuşoğlu said, "The growth of the Turkish economy is at the top of the world. International organizations have also updated these growths. The problem is the fluctuation in the exchange rate. The depreciation of the Turkish lira is a reality. However, measures are being taken."

ÇAVUŞOĞLU: WE ARE NOT LOOKING FOR FINANCIAL SUPPORT​

Arguing that Turkey does not seek financial support from Qatar, Çavuşoğlu continued:
"We came to Qatar today, not specifically to send money to Turkey, but to improve our relations in every sense."

Related news: Here are those moments in Qatar... TRT stopped broadcasting at Çavuşoğlu's press conference

ERDOĞAN IN QATAR​

President and AKP Chairman Recep Tayyip Erdoğan arrived in Doha, the capital of Qatar, at 16.30 on a private plane "TC-TRK".
Erdoğan, Minister of Foreign Affairs Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu, Minister of National Defense Hulusi Akar, Minister of Finance of Qatar Ali bin Ahmed Alkuwari, MIT Head Hakan Fidan, Turkey's Ambassador to Doha Mehmet Mustafa Göksu and Qatar-Turkish Combined Joint Force Command Infantry Staff Colonel at Hamad International Airport. Welcomed by Bilal Çokay.

President Erdoğan attended the dinner given in honor of Emir Sheikh Hamed bin Khalifa Al Sani, father of Qatar Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamed Al Sani.
The dinner in Doha, attended by President Erdoğan and his wife Emine Erdoğan, was closed to the press.
image_750x_61ae641795899.jpg


 

Grand Charles

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Are there any economists here?, it seems that no, many speak without knowing the secret figures of the Turkish central bank.
Turkey's economy is doing very well, production is rising, exports exploding just after China, while the countries of the euro zone and the USA are in full recession.

Does Jordan have a better economy than all 27 European countries, it looks like yes according to economists here
1 Jordanian Dinar =

1,2525196 Euro

1638876520400.png
 

Grand Charles

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GDP Ratio by Country 2021​


the American and European financial and monetary pressure on Turkey is perfectly visible when examining the price of the Credit Default Swap on Ankara (the table below dates from September 8, 2021) considering that the Turkish debt / GDP - or rate of debt - is 38% - while the Greece debt / GDP is now 174.15 %! due to the almost 2 years Covid19..


Turkey produces 100 of GDP, pays back 30, and has 70 left.
Greece produces 100 of GDP, repays 100, and it has 0, if not 74 more to repay which means 'default'.
You now understand better what is going on!.
The price of CDS should very precisely be reversed since today, it is Greece or France which has the most chances of defaulting !!.


Washington and Brussels, want to bring / force Turkey to default on its debt by maintaining unprecedented financial and monetary pressure on it, which also explains to you why Erdogan is so resistant to this coup.

FMi has validated this statistics
Best scores for Turkey economy by FMI
1638877229217.png
 
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Grand Charles

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Credit Default Swaps Map
Take a good look at this world map of Credit Default Swaps, because it is absolute proof that Washington and Brussels want to bring down Erdogan.
Brazil is yellow, between 100 and 200, the rest of the world with Greece is green, and only Turkey is flashing red. The aim is to discourage traders from buying Turkish debt, and investors from launching new economic projects there.
1638877443242.png
 

what

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Are there any economists here?, it seems that no, many speak without knowing the secret figures of the Turkish central bank.
Turkey's economy is doing very well, production is rising, exports exploding just after China, while the countries of the euro zone and the USA are in full recession.

Does Jordan have a better economy than all 27 European countries, it looks like yes according to economists here
1 Jordanian Dinar =

1,2525196 Euro

View attachment 36782
Just my 2 cents:
1. Eurozone is not in recession and
2. the value of a currency has a lot to do with stability and trust in its central bank.
 

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Just my 2 cents:
1. Eurozone is not in recession and
2. the value of a currency has a lot to do with stability and trust in its central bank.


Yes partly. Economy is not that complex as many imagine, there are some basic things to why Turkish economy is vulnerable:
1) we have a chronic trade imbalance (every year our trade deficit is around $40bln)
2) our tourism income (that compensated a bit of the trade deficit) has gone down due to covid and less tourism


Compare this with a normal household, a person earns (just example) 5000TL a month, but with all his expenses are 5500TL. So every month he come 500TL short that he borrows on credit cards. At the end of the month he uses credit card b to pay off credit card A and the month after he uses credit card c to pay off credit card A and so on.

As long as he manages to roll over his debts and pays, no problem (but his economic situation is vulnerable!) . If this guy has one month of mishap and earns less than 5000TL, he will get into trouble. Now that's exactly what is happening to our economy.
 

Manomed

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Credit Default Swaps Map
Take a good look at this world map of Credit Default Swaps, because it is absolute proof that Washington and Brussels want to bring down Erdogan.
Brazil is yellow, between 100 and 200, the rest of the world with Greece is green, and only Turkey is flashing red. The aim is to discourage traders from buying Turkish debt, and investors from launching new economic projects there.
View attachment 36792
I don't listen to someone with diriliş ertuğrul pfp damn medievals Turks never wore Black
 
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