TR Economy & Updates

[Agha Sher]

Turkey’s exports hit all-time monthly high for 3rd consecutive month​

BY DAILY SABAH​

ISTANBUL ECONOMY
MAR 02, 2021 11:55 AM GMT+3

Containers are seen at the Mersin International Port (MIP) in southern Mersin province, Turkey, June 14, 2020. (Shutterstock Photo by Can Aran)


Turkey’s exports have hit an all-time monthly high for the third consecutive month in February, the country’s trade minister announced Tuesday.
Sales surged 9.6% year-on-year to over $16 billion in the month, Ruhsar Pekcan told a meeting in the capital Ankara.
Imports rose 9.8% to $19.4 billion, bringing the trade deficit to $3.4 billion, the data showed.
The export-to-import coverage ratio was 82.7% this February, the minister noted.
The data follows the highest monthly figures in January and December as sales surpassed $15 billion and $17.84 billion, respectively.


The coronavirus outbreak led to a 6.26% drop in 2020 exports as Turkey closed the year with $169.5 billion in foreign sales, exceeding the target of $165.9 billion in the medium-term program.
Imports were up 4.3% to reach $219.4 billion. The trade deficit widened by 69.12% to $49.9 billion last year.

Turkey’s exports hit all-time monthly high for 3rd straight month

Turkish exports have hit an all-time monthly high for the third consecutive month in February, the country’s trade minister announced Tuesday.Sales...

www.dailysabah.com

Unfortunately imports grew faster than exports. Really important that the trade deficit is mitigated asap.

 

[Vivid1]

I wouldn't say it's the import/export ratio that's causing problems here.
It's the systematic structural problems of the country that's causing problems.
This is the governing system, education, and the judiciary.

I won't get into politics, but it seems like AKP has realized this since the start of the year and is trying to do something about it.

Healthy export-orientated growth is needed to fix the lack of FX in the country, and to fix the employment problems.

In 2013 the GDP was around $950 billion, today that has dropped to $650 billion, that is a massive decrease and any government should have been ousted by now.

I'd say Turkey has until 2023 to fix its structural problems, after that aging population, and bad demographics might not be attractive to investors any more.

After 2023, If Turkey can have like 15-20 years of healthy growth, it could become the next South Korea - the country has so much potential.

 

[the]

I wouldn't say it's the import/export ratio that's causing problems here.
It's the systematic structural problems of the country that's causing problems.
This is the governing system, education, and the judiciary.

I won't get into politics, but it seems like AKP has realized this since the start of the year and is trying to do something about it.

Healthy export-orientated growth is needed to fix the lack of FX in the country, and to fix the employment problems.

In 2013 the GDP was around $950 billion, today that has dropped to $650 billion, that is a massive decrease and any government should have been ousted by now.

I'd say Turkey has until 2023 to fix its structural problems, after that aging population, and bad demographics might not be attractive to investors any more.

After 2023, If Turkey can have like 15-20 years of healthy growth, it could become the next South Korea - the country has so much potential.

Not sure about the "aging population", Turkey has one of the youngest populations in Europe, and growth is also relatively high.

Total Population by Country 2023

worldpopulationreview.com

Mapped: The world's most elderly (and youngest) countries

The map below shows the world according to the average age of each country's or territory's residents.

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[Sinan]

I wouldn't say it's the import/export ratio that's causing problems here.
It's the systematic structural problems of the country that's causing problems.
This is the governing system, education, and the judiciary.

I won't get into politics, but it seems like AKP has realized this since the start of the year and is trying to do something about it.

Healthy export-orientated growth is needed to fix the lack of FX in the country, and to fix the employment problems.

In 2013 the GDP was around $950 billion, today that has dropped to $650 billion, that is a massive decrease and any government should have been ousted by now.

I'd say Turkey has until 2023 to fix its structural problems, after that aging population, and bad demographics might not be attractive to investors any more.

After 2023, If Turkey can have like 15-20 years of healthy growth, it could become the next South Korea - the country has so much potential.

I think you are right in your arguments. I also want to expand these arguments.

1-) When your country's %80 of the imports amounts to raw materials & semi-products(ara mamul), it means that there are problems with your industry. Even if we increase our exports, imports also increase and we can't close the deficit.

2-) I too, think AKP realized the problems especially in the judiciary system but they couldn't do anything from some statements about reform. Government talks about reforms, human rights, etc... but in the mean time, declearing protesting students as "terrorists".

 

[Sinan]

Not sure about the "aging population", Turkey has one of the youngest populations in Europe, and growth is also relatively high.

Total Population by Country 2023

worldpopulationreview.com

Mapped: The world's most elderly (and youngest) countries

The map below shows the world according to the average age of each country's or territory's residents.

www.telegraph.co.uk

He is right when you look at the fertility rate charts.

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) - Turkiye | Data

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

 

[Ryder]

I think you are right in your arguments. I also want to expand these arguments.

1-) When your country's %80 of the imports amounts to raw materials & semi-products(ara mamul), it means that there are problems with your industry. Even if we increase our exports, imports also increase and we can't close the deficit.

2-) I too, think AKP realized the problems especially in the judiciary system but they couldn't do anything from some statements about reform. Government talks about reforms, human rights, etc... but in the mean time, declearing protesting students as "terrorists".

I would not call the students as terrorists I would call them libtards

 

[Nilgiri]

1-) When your country's %80 of the imports amounts to raw materials & semi-products(ara mamul)

You mean exports? Yes its problem if exports given little value addition (i.e less export of meaningful turkish productivity).

Importing large amount of raw material is not a problem if it gets processed, value added (by productive skill intensive jobs) and exported to world markets.

Good reference information:

https://oec.world/en/profile/country/tur

I wouldn't say 80% of either exports or imports of turkey are raw/semi-processed (vs mid-high value added manufacture etc), it looks about 50/50 by value on both sides.

However given Turkey location and development inertia, it should be doing far far better than this.

Last 10 - 20 years the problem has been one where Turkish govt has unfortunately layered over several nasty surprises in turkish banking + loan system (these help govt brochure projects the most)....instead of bringing/encouraging hard capital investment norms (these help factories and production, but not so nice brochures).

 

[Turko]

The national income per capita in Turkey fell to 2007 levels

Türkiye'de kişi başına düşen milli gelir 2007 seviyesine geriledi

Türkiye'de kişi başına düşen milli gelir 2007 seviyesine geriledi

tr.euronews.com

Nonetheless all figures in US dollars, from 2007 today USD has also lost its value.

For instance , from 2007 today during 13 years if Türkiye had same GDP every year it wouldn't be a balance.
İt would be melting GDP. Because every year There are more USD in the world.

İn 2000 Total amount of world economy was like 30 trillion usd. Today is likely 90 trillion usd.
So that 7000usd of 2000 GDP , today's 21000usd. That's why today people feel more suffering.

İn 2007 world global GDP was like 63 trillion usd.
İf you want to excel 2007' s economy you should double the Türkiye's economy.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Worldometer

Global GDP Live Clock, List of Countries in the world by GDP, Historical GDP by year, GDP per capita, GDP growth.

www.worldometers.info

There is no economic success for AKP unless GDP excels 20.000 usd per capita which is 2002's 7000usd .

Today real Turkish GDP equal to 2002's GDP (3600usd) calculating how usd lost its value how the world economy has been tripled.

 

[Nilgiri]

The national income per capita in Turkey fell to 2007 levels

Türkiye'de kişi başına düşen milli gelir 2007 seviyesine geriledi

Türkiye'de kişi başına düşen milli gelir 2007 seviyesine geriledi

tr.euronews.com

Nonetheless all figures in US dollars, from 2007 today USD has also lost its value.

For instance , from 2007 today during 13 years if Türkiye had same GDP every year it wouldn't be a balance.
İt would be melting GDP. Because every year There are more USD in the world.

İn 2000 Total amount of world economy was like 30 trillion usd. Today is likely 90 trillion usd(2019).
So that 7000usd of 2000 GDP , today's 21000usd. That's why today people feel more suffering.

İn 2007 world global GDP was like 63 trillion usd.
İf you want to excel 2007' s economy you should double the Türkiye's economy.

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - Worldometer

Global GDP Live Clock, List of Countries in the world by GDP, Historical GDP by year, GDP per capita, GDP growth.

www.worldometers.info

It (USD conversion of nominal Lira GDP by direct extrapolation of exchange rate to whole economy) is significant, but about to 1/3rd level (at most) of total economy.

That's because Turkey imports is about 230 billion USD (2019), out of total nominal economy of around 750 billion USD (2019)....so about 33%.

Thus 2/3rds is more reliant on internal turkish inflation instead (because its not really being traded with outside world), that is marked more by constant dollar GDP (that indexes to turkish inflation rather than the USD/Lira exchange rate).

In this measure, Turkish economy has grown from about 750 billion USD to about 1.3 trillion USD in 2019:

GDP (constant 2015 US$) - Turkiye | Data

GDP (constant 2015 US$) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

Ideally you would factor in both of these (exchange rate indexing versus Lira inflation indexing) to their respective relevance amounts, that tends to be something like what PPP measure tries to do by taking a large basket of goods and consumption levels.

Here it is per capita:

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

So things do not look so bad if you look at these last two measures (w.r.t consumption buffer for the average turkish citizen).

The problem is the middle income trap being hidden (given loans etc get counted as investment all the same, no matter its effect on economy in short, mid and longer term) and the systematic problems of GDP measure itself (further made worse by many govts tabulations).

It is often best to look at the components (as far outside Turkish central banking/govt as possible, vetted by others in other countries like trade, investment etc).....rather than GDP (and the debates about which GDP type is best and most relevant).

Components like forex reserves and trade and investment flows are examples of these (since another country/source has to vet the flow from their end).

These have been and are fairly stagnant when they should have been growing quite well this decade. This shows the deep problem in Turkish economy I have mentioned a few times already in this thread before.

 

[Turko]

It (USD conversion of nominal Lira GDP by direct extrapolation of exchange rate to whole economy) is significant, but about to 1/3rd level (at most) of total economy.

That's because Turkey imports is about 230 billion USD (2019), out of total nominal economy of around 750 billion USD (2019)....so about 33%.

Thus 2/3rds is more reliant on internal turkish inflation instead (because its not really being traded with outside world), that is marked more by constant dollar GDP (that indexes to turkish inflation rather than the USD/Lira exchange rate).

In this measure, Turkish economy has grown from about 750 billion USD to about 1.3 trillion USD in 2019:

GDP (constant 2015 US$) - Turkiye | Data

GDP (constant 2015 US$) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

Ideally you would factor in both of these (exchange rate indexing versus Lira inflation indexing) to their respective relevance amounts, that tends to be something like what PPP measure tries to do by taking a large basket of goods and consumption levels.

Here it is per capita:

World Bank Open Data

Free and open access to global development data

data.worldbank.org

So things do not look so bad if you look at these last two measures (w.r.t consumption buffer for the average turkish citizen).

The problem is the middle income trap being hidden (given loans etc get counted as investment all the same, no matter its effect on economy in short, mid and longer term) and the systematic problems of GDP measure itself (further made worse by many govts tabulations).

It is often best to look at the components (as far outside Turkish central banking/govt as possible, vetted by others in other countries like trade, investment etc).....rather than GDP (and the debates about which GDP type is best and most relevant).

Components like forex reserves and trade and investment flows are examples of these (since another country/source has to vet the flow from their end).

These have been and are fairly stagnant when they should have been growing quite well this decade. This shows the deep problem in Turkish economy I have mentioned a few times already in this thread before.

İ'm not macro economist however I can notice : total amount of USD has been tripled from 2002 so that's why gold prices also boosted.

 

[Nilgiri]

İ'm not macro economist however I can notice : total amount of USD has been tripled from 2002 so that's why gold prices also boosted.

Yah bro, US govt has issued immense amount of national debt since 9/11 coz of the 2 major war spending programs creating deficit they needed to borrow from others....not to forget the 08 crisis that made it worse too.

Thus it means there is lot more USD in the world system's liquidity now.....essentially its US underlying wealth that US is saying its good for (in paying back) long term.

The total US wealth like that is about 110 trillion USD.....and about 22 trillion is now US govt debt alone leveraged on it.....when this (and private side too) was like you say much much lower in 2002.

 

[Turko]

Yah bro, US govt has issued immense amount of national debt since 9/11 coz of the 2 major war spending programs creating deficit they needed to borrow from others....not to forget the 08 crisis that made it worse too.

Thus it means there is lot more USD in the world system's liquidity now.....essentially its US underlying wealth that US is saying its good for (in paying back) long term.

The total US wealth like that is about 110 trillion USD.....and about 22 trillion is now US govt debt alone leveraged on it.....when this (and private side too) was like you say much much lower in 2002.

Our people think: if the GDP figures doubled for 20 years that means Turkish people become 2 times more reach for 20 years it's kinda i ask you to lend me 20k usd but i will turn it to you after 20 years

 

[the]

He is right when you look at the fertility rate charts.

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) - Turkiye | Data

Fertility rate, total (births per woman) - Turkiye from The World Bank: Data

data.worldbank.org

You have to look at the data relative to other countries, only central African and South East Asian countries have a higher fertility rate.

Turkey (2.06) has a similar rate to other emerging economies e.g. Vietnam (2.04) , Mexico (2.10), Brazil (1.73).

 

[Nilgiri]

Our people think: if the GDP figures doubled for 20 years that means Turkish people become 2 times more reach for 20 years it's kinda i ask you to lend me 20k usd but i will turn it to you after 20 years

Yah it is why it need to be grounded on some constant consumption basket as far as possible.

So in Turkey case, it would be total Lira size of economy minus the inflation of Lira (over the period measured from).

Now how you define, calculate that inflation (to get real growth) is the govt shenanigans part lot of the time (worldwide)....because there is lot of ways a govt can manipulate this to make a number look good/better than it actually is......by counting A = B rather than A is not so good as B etc....in an A + B + C + D.......+Z addition.

i.e are all the things being used to calculate inflation the correct weightage for the average turkish citizen spending pattern.

are all the prices used the right actual prices etc.

That's why as many people as possible need to hold govt feet to the fire if they sense something is really off.

It is the REAL growth and REAL GDP that matters the most (i.e what does 100 lira buy you today compared to before, and is the higher stream of lira you earn enough growth to counter that and then some on top)...as you cannot eat things with inflated money.

Turkey underlying strength is there, but there is a significant growing weakness too...as the loans route has been picked instead of direct-investment route....among other problems turkish banking system is festering now.

Turkey needs administration and leadership that puts sound economic fundamentals and reform first thing.

 

[Sinan]

You have to look at the data relative to other countries, only central African and South East Asian countries have a higher fertility rate.

Turkey (2.06) has a similar rate to other emerging economies e.g. Vietnam (2.04) , Mexico (2.10), Brazil (1.73).
View attachment 15206

View attachment 15207

Let's put it like this.

For fertility rate 2.1 is the lower limit.

You have 2 parents, 2 parent should have 2 children so that when parents got old, their 2 chldren can take care of themselves. 0.1 comes from deaths of the kids, (traffic accidents, disease, you name it)

If you are under 2.1 it means that median age starts to become older.

You can look for more info: https://www.britannica.com/topic/fertility-rate

This is the standart for every country out there.

 

[Nilgiri]

If you are under 2.1 it means that median age starts to become older.

Well it just becomes even faster (in getting older) than say 2.5 or 3....but same thing (median age increase) happens at any X number as long as its lower than a period before (say when it was 4, 5 ,6 per women etc).

What matters is what is the change in fertility rate over period of time, since you get a shape happening in population pyramid now compared to what it was before, and that all influences the median age (i.e people live longer and die later and fewer people that are younger now etc).

One can see how Turkey has changed and likely will change in future here (by clicking across the graph):

Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100

Turkey - 2020

www.populationpyramid.net

 

[the]

Let's put it like this.

For fertility rate 2.1 is the lower limit.

You have 2 parents, 2 parent should have 2 children so that when parents got old, their 2 chldren can take care of themselves. 0.1 comes from deaths of the kids, (traffic accidents, disease, you name it)

If you are under 2.1 it means that median age starts to become older.

You can look for more info: https://www.britannica.com/topic/fertility-rate

This is the standart for every country out there.

I agree with what you're saying, I'm just pointing out that this is a problem that faces 90% of countries, and if anything, Turkey is in a better position than most.

 

[Vivid1]

I agree with what you're saying, I'm just pointing out that this is a problem that faces 90% of countries, and if anything, Turkey is in a better position than most.

Yeah, fertility rates are fine for the time being. But, swift actions need to be taken to address structural problems in the judiciary, education, and the governmental system. Which AKP seems to be trying to do since Jan 2021.

Especially after 2023 with single-digit inflation, we could start seeing 5%-10% GDP growth figures again. However, this time it should be export-orientated growth (which is more sustainable).

Lutfi Elvan and Naci Agbal seem to be leading the pack here, I don't think Erdogan knew what was going on with the economy, Albayrak must've created an echo-chamber.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366471302152921092

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364809989982990337

Translate to English if you don't understand.

Although I'm still skeptical, it's Erdogan's last chance, he's going down massively in the polls due to economic problems.

 

[Glass🚬]

Yeah, fertility rates are fine for the time being. But, swift actions need to be taken to address structural problems in the judiciary, education, and the governmental system. Which AKP seems to be trying to do since Jan 2021.

Especially after 2023 with single-digit inflation, we could start seeing 5%-10% GDP growth figures again. However, this time it should be export-orientated growth (which is more sustainable).

Lutfi Elvan and Naci Agbal seem to be leading the pack here, I don't think Erdogan knew what was going on with the economy, Albayrak must've created an echo-chamber.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366471302152921092

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364809989982990337

Translate to English if you don't understand.

Although I'm still skeptical, it's Erdogan's last chance, he's going down massively in the polls due to economic problems.

Erdo wont win the 2023 election, that is with the mischief his son in law caused no longer possible.

 

[Turko]

Yeah, fertility rates are fine for the time being. But, swift actions need to be taken to address structural problems in the judiciary, education, and the governmental system. Which AKP seems to be trying to do since Jan 2021.

Especially after 2023 with single-digit inflation, we could start seeing 5%-10% GDP growth figures again. However, this time it should be export-orientated growth (which is more sustainable).

Lutfi Elvan and Naci Agbal seem to be leading the pack here, I don't think Erdogan knew what was going on with the economy, Albayrak must've created an echo-chamber.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1366471302152921092

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1364809989982990337

Translate to English if you don't understand.

Although I'm still skeptical, it's Erdogan's last chance, he's going down massively in the polls due to economic problems.

As if they've just won the election and just came into power. The Agenda seems too late.