TR Economy & Updates

Deliorman

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People should shift observation angle, usd is not God's particle and world and life does not revolve around it. Sure it is variable for consideration but not deterministic for state policy, at this point it is lame to pull usd-lira ratio, bend the knee and kira will be "strong " as rock example and cohortes of "experts" will "praise" same policy which is heavily criticued now.

If USD is not God’s particle then why all the State budget guaranties for Erdogan’s Crazy projects (bridges, airports, highways etc) are given in USD and EUR and not in Turkish Liras?
All these projects are given to buddies of Erdogan but not a single one of them wants to get his money in Turkish Liras?

Turkey’s economy is in total ruin while the huge majority of it’s population is having financial problems and lives bad. That is the simple truth that you just don’t want to see.
 
T

Turko

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I don't want personal attacks.

People here know about nothing about Turkey.
Currently Turkish Budget has deficit in USD due-to fuel/gas prices . Turkish Budget depends indirect taxes from fuel/gas.

Mutual trade agreements for energy don't bring tax revenue to the government, however those agreements Dont cover all energy bill.

I repeat second time currently you can't find cheaper construction iron because all the prices in USD so construction works have been harmed. You can't sell any flats with new high prices to poor Turkish citizens who don't earn EUR/USD.

I have no clue about how Turkish citizens could speculate Turkish Lira . Sounds bullshit.

İf your economy weren't shallow, no one could speculate it.
As i said i'm not finance expert.
İ just see currently USD is 9.25EUR is 10.75 and diesel fuel is rising in Istanbul. Obviously it is very bad unless you earn in foreign currency.
 

Anastasius

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Somebody should also factor in taxes, there are additional taxes on luxury goods in Turkey. An average income person does not use an iPhone. This metric is groundless.
1) Which is an additional issue resulting from mismanagement of the economy.

2) Perhaps in Turkey they don't. Because they can't comfortably afford it without having to save up with several months worth of wages. Which is, you know, the problem here because that isn't what should be happening.

Basically, you are nitpicking in an attempt to disprove the metric but only proceeding to show why it's useful in demonstrating how screwed the economy is.
 

mulj

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If USD is not God’s particle then why all the State budget guaranties for Erdogan’s Crazy projects (bridges, airports, highways etc) are given in USD and EUR and not in Turkish Liras?
All these projects are given to buddies of Erdogan but not a single one of them wants to get his money in Turkish Liras?

Turkey’s economy is in total ruin while the huge majority of it’s population is having financial problems and lives bad. That is the simple truth that you just don’t want to see.
I see usd as problem, not solution, simple as that, somehow you need to make yourself less dependant of it. Otherwise you will repeat cylces of up and downs in correlation to usd until end of the times. More barter arrangment for energy inputs would be nice start.
 

Deliorman

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I see usd as problem, not solution, simple as that, somehow you need to make yourself less dependant of it. Otherwise you will repeat cylces of up and downs in correlation to usd until end of the times. More barter arrangment for energy inputs would be nice start.

You are right and Erdogan have been talking the same stuff like you for years now- "Sell your dollars! Don't buy foreign currency! We will trade with other countries with local currencies!" etc.

Yet you didn't answer my question: Why all the State budget guaranties for Erdogan’s Crazy projects (bridges, airports, highways etc) are given in USD and EUR and not in Turkish Liras?
All these projects are given to buddies of Erdogan but why not a single one of them gets his money in Turkish Liras?
 

Zafer

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1) Which is an additional issue resulting from mismanagement of the economy.

2) Perhaps in Turkey they don't. Because they can't comfortably afford it without having to save up with several months worth of wages. Which is, you know, the problem here because that isn't what should be happening.

Basically, you are nitpicking in an attempt to disprove the metric but only proceeding to show why it's useful in demonstrating how screwed the economy is.

You tax the high income folks, this is healthy.
 

Lool

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Daily exports passed 1.5 billion $ mark yesterday it is a new record.
Does that mean that a monthly export figure of 50 to 60 billion dollar can be achieved?
If that is the case then by the end of the next year Turkey can have an export figure of around 400 billion
If such a daily figure can be maintained ofcourse
 

mulj

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I see usd as problem, not solution, simple as that, somehow you need to make yourself less dependant of it. Otherwise you will repeat cylces of up and downs in correlation to usd until end of the times.

You are right and Erdogan have been talking the same stuff like you for years now- "Sell your dollars! Don't buy foreign currency! We will trade with other countries with local currencies!" etc.

Yet you didn't answer my question: Why all the State budget guaranties for Erdogan’s Crazy projects (bridges, airports, highways etc) are given in USD and EUR and not in Turkish Liras?
All these projects are given to buddies of Erdogan but why not a single one of them gets his money in Turkish Liras?
If the source of money needed for those is usd, why not?

Whole thing with "dedolarisation" is not switch on thing, some time and lot of policy and security string needed to be aligned in order that could be done. You know USA does not like states to be safe from the usd hegemony.
 

Agha Sher

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Does that mean that a monthly export figure of 50 to 60 billion dollar can be achieved?
If that is the case then by the end of the next year Turkey can have an export figure of around 400 billion
If such a daily figure can be maintained ofcourse

Most likely not. 1.5bn daily export would be around 30bn per month (20 workdays)
 

TheInsider

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Does that mean that a monthly export figure of 50 to 60 billion dollar can be achieved?
If that is the case then by the end of the next year Turkey can have an export figure of around 400 billion
If such a daily figure can be maintained ofcourse
If we can export 1.5 billion every workday theoretically we might export 30 billion per month and 12x30=360 billion per year. IMHO we will pass the 250 billion milestone next year. and aim for 300 billion in 2023. We are putting a good effort to nationalize the logistic chain of the good we produce. If we can decrease the money spent on oil(dependency on oil will decrease as EV take over the market) and gas( blacksea gas production will start in 2023 and will ramp up starting from 2025) we will be in a very good spot in the export/import ratio.
 

Nilgiri

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What is your take on Turkish 12 % inflation (2020) and Iran 54 % inflation (2020) ?

Do you think this is due to money printing from Central Bank that make too much money on the circulation that is not back with production and productivity ?

For information, in the past there is huge inflation and it even bring an economic crisis over a decade in Mecca after Muslim king from Africa gives huge amount of gold to the people there and gold at that time was the currency

Inflation happens very simply.

Essentially a larger amount of money/resources/inputs/time/etc is chasing/exchanging for the same set of goods+services (things in demand by society for consumption and saving) compared to an earlier time.

Time/etc is money. Resources/inputs generally have a money (value) reference. Money is money (normally issued by govt as currency).

So lets just say money for all of this for simplicity sake (though each one can be gone into more specific detail as to their particular inflation in the human social sciences that Economics tries to summarise)

You can have a simple version of things happening (which rarely happens these days) or more complicated version (of same thing but are more commonly seen).

The simple versions used to be seen a lot more pre-1950 (and especially pre-1900) when the world was more mercantile globally....and supply chains and products were lot more simple overall.

The more complicated versions started emerging in 20th century and especially after ww2 and the rise of monetary analysis and theory....given the more complicated supply chains and trade happening globally (in effort to reduce conflict and promote prosperity globally).

So take physically more money chasing same (or smaller) number of goods (in a period of time+depth for the money circulation as you point out)....and you get inflation (literally means "more" money for same).

Simple version of this is caused by govt printing more money and injecting it into the economy...but economy being able to provide the same amount of physical stuff in total. Like how weimar republic wanted to pay off its versailles treaty debt by simply producing more duetsche mark....but without accounting for the effect on its own people (and probably is the most studied case of hyperinflation).

Complicated version would be something like govt decreasing the interest rate, making money cheaper to borrow...but again economy producing the same amount of stuff (due to the issue not being price related in the impulse govt is hoping for)


One can also take same amount of money chasing smaller number of goods.

Simple reason of this is say a natural disaster physically reducing production/supply of a (especially much demanded) good....hence price increases as again its demand is "inelastic" relative to the impulse of circulation time+depth.

Complicated reason could be a good your people dont know how to make (or dont have the access/facilities to make) and thus have to import by producing something to export (That the world wants).

But say if another part of world becomes more competitive (i.e more efficient or cheaper input etc) in that same stuff you were providing to the world and you do not keep pace.

It means you term of trade will worsen with the world (especially if you were reliant on those single few "elastic" items to sell to others, that are now eroding competitively.... to then buy from them, especially "inelastic" stuff).

That in turn means less supply of those items, but you still have same amount of money in that impulse+depth relatively speaking internally....and thus inflation occurs.

These are all just specific illustrative examples, there is a large combination (in between and of other ways entirely) of what could be going on which is the task of each country's best economists to study and give advice (to policy makers) on.

It just needs more money chasing same amount of "stuff" for whatever reason....and you will get inflation happening.

Then the next part is how you measure that inflation too (what do you select as reference goods and basket etc as a individual consumer finds certain things more important to him/her than say a wholesaler or industry).

This varies from country to country as well....though they standardise more as they integrate their supply chains and trade more.

So why Turkey has X% inflation and Iran has Y% inflation needs a look at all of this...but the general thing is there is too much money introduced/flowing for relative same amount of goods from year 1 to year 2. Or a sudden structural increase in demand for something and supply not being able to keep up (i.e a deeper level of it past currency inflation).

For archaic older periods, it mimics the mercantile model simplicty.

So yes introducing gold suddenly can mean more goods demanded but suppliers (of day to day stuff in demand) unable to keep up.
Thus suppliers of goods can charge more gold today for same thing yesterday....as there is simply more gold available in the system and system has not given time to expand and settle to the impulse introduction.
 

Merzifonlu

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Daily exports passed 1.5 billion $ mark yesterday it is a new record.
Inflation in the dollar should also be taken into account. If the export was 100 billion dollars in the previous year and 110 billion dollars this year, the export did not increase. Figures are inflated due to dollar inflation.
 

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I wont side with the policies being implemented or with what the opposition states but....

However, with a population of 84 million and an energy dependency, you need to be an Export Nation to feed all those people. This is a fact you need to accept whether you like it or not! (No offense meant)

Pls for gods sake stop trying to compare yourself to EU countries that are only 5-10 million in population and then ask yourselves why Turkey isnt like them. You should compare yourselves with countries that are similar in population size; something akin to FRANCE
France is an export nation, with a population of around 60 million, and with energy dependency which they compensate it with Nuclear technology (70% of their energy needs in fact). It is ironic that they dont wanna Turkey acquire nuclear tech even though Macron recently promised to build more nuclear reactors but lets leave politics for another day for now
In order for France to feed all those mouths, they GOD DAMN EXPORT STUFF since their ppl need to work to earn money


The only difference between France and Turkey is the starting point IMO. I dont wanna get in details as I will rant a lot more so lets keep it to that
 
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I have worked with Germans there is no such thing as they are working smarter. They are very rigid and can't produce solutions based on flexibility. We are working both harder and smarter than them.

I can attest that. Germans need structure and guidance to work and function properly in an enviroment of pressure and stress. They don't show flexibility when it's needed and meanigful. The German society outright refuses to understand that situational adaptiveness is also a sign of innovativ behaviour that leads to success.

I heard that the Dutch and Swiss are much more easygoing and goal-oriented, hence, both nations are much more prosperous.

Facts? Are you serious ?

Turkish people are lazy and doesn't work and it's a "fact"? I'm speechless.

Are you think yourself as a prophet or something like that. When you speak the words that come out your mouth becomes the "absolute truth"

We are the most working people of all Europe
Map1_Average_number_of_usual_hours_of_work_of_employees-01.jpg



Yet, we are the poorest of Europe.
E_WMD4uWQAIalDQ


Yet, we are the poorest of al Europe, one of the most poor in the world, except some very rich people who have connections with AKP elites.

This is the reason why Turks hate Almancıs.... don't run your mouth on us from Germany.

Yes, I'm an Almancı. So what? What do you know about me apart from this label? Why are you constantly attacking me instead of addressing the issue of low productivity?

I've worked for German trading companies in the past and I gave orders for importing products from Turkey worth millions of Euros. I know what I'm talking about. I've worked with companies in Anatolia and in Istanbul. I'm not talking out of my a**, I have serious business experience with our people.

Believe me when I say:

We don't work the longest hours in Europe. We work in the dumbest, most inefficient and disorganized way that is possible in Europe. It is not necessary to work like this and live under these conditions. But we chose to turn our lives into hell by disregarding everything that made others a global success. It's a mentality issue and you acting as if the government is doing this to us won't help solve this problem. Turkey needs a reset in her mindset, though, this will not happen under an AKP rule.

@Agha Sher @TheInsider @Huelague

Exporting 1.5 billion USD per day isn't really that much. Germany exports ~ 6 billion USD per day. For instance, back in the day, when I was working in a trading company in Germany, I put in orders for imports from Turkey worth approx. 50.000 € per truck. The stuff I ordered was for human consumption and comparatively cheap.

Now, if you export high-value products, one truck load (15 EUR-pallets) can easily be worth millions of EUR. I'm talking about one truck. Imagine thousands of companies exporting products to international markets everyday.

We also shouldn't forget that this number is really outstanding in our track record and "historical" for Turkey while Germany's 6 B USD export is pretty much business as usual and nothing special.
 

Oublious

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Facts? Are you serious ?

Turkish people are lazy and doesn't work and it's a "fact"? I'm speechless.

Are you think yourself as a prophet or something like that. When you speak the words that come out your mouth becomes the "absolute truth"

We are the most working people of all Europe
Map1_Average_number_of_usual_hours_of_work_of_employees-01.jpg



Yet, we are the poorest of Europe.
E_WMD4uWQAIalDQ


Yet, we are the poorest of al Europe, one of the most poor in the world, except some very rich people who have connections with AKP elites.

This is the reason why Turks hate Almancıs.... don't run your mouth on us from Germany.


thats a bs research, based on working for the goverment you make 36 hours. Go work for a private company, people are working from 40 to 60 hours. Ther is no differeces between Turkey and EU.
 

Ryder

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You are right and Erdogan have been talking the same stuff like you for years now- "Sell your dollars! Don't buy foreign currency! We will trade with other countries with local currencies!" etc.

Yet you didn't answer my question: Why all the State budget guaranties for Erdogan’s Crazy projects (bridges, airports, highways etc) are given in USD and EUR and not in Turkish Liras?
All these projects are given to buddies of Erdogan but why not a single one of them gets his money in Turkish Liras?

Not even the Turkish government has confidence in the Lira.

Turkish Lira is just one weak ass currency unfortunately.

Turkish economy seems to be a stagnant one.
 

TheInsider

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Inflation in the dollar should also be taken into account. If the export was 100 billion dollars in the previous year and 110 billion dollars this year, the export did not increase. Figures are inflated due to dollar inflation.
~%4
 

Anastasius

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I wont side with the policies being implemented or with what the opposition states but....

However, with a population of 84 million and an energy dependency, you need to be an Export Nation to feed all those people. This is a fact you need to accept whether you like it or not! (No offense meant)

Pls for gods sake stop trying to compare yourself to EU countries that are only 5-10 million in population and then ask yourselves why Turkey isnt like them. You should compare yourselves with countries that are similar in population size; something akin to FRANCE
France is an export nation, with a population of around 60 million, and with energy dependency which they compensate it with Nuclear technology (70% of their energy needs in fact). It is ironic that they dont wanna Turkey acquire nuclear tech even though Macron recently promised to build more nuclear reactors but lets leave politics for another day for now
In order for France to feed all those mouths, they GOD DAMN EXPORT STUFF since their ppl need to work to earn money


The only difference between France and Turkey is the starting point IMO. I dont wanna get in details as I will rant a lot more so lets keep it to that
Germany has a population of around 80 million, which is about the same as Turkey. It also has major energy dependence issues. It's a valid comparison.
 

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