TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

Lool

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So Turkish TB2s fighting against Tigrayan forces is apparently a humanitarian crisis
However, US drones which are operated by the US military itself bombing innocent civilians in Afghanistan while they are retreating just in order to show that the US scored a rather embarassing and shameful victory isnt human rights abuses by the US's logic

 
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Manomed

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Pretty much confirmed at this point that Ethiopia received TB2s:

Lets fuck up our relations more with egyptians fun fact lots of people worked so hard to get our relationships good with them (I don't like egyptians but You can't run a country with this shit dış siyaset)

But seems like we gotta make damat richer
 

Abdelaziz

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Lets fuck up our relations more with egyptians fun fact lots of people worked so hard to get our relationships good with them (I don't like egyptians but You can't run a country with this shit dış siyaset)

But seems like we gotta make damat richer
Despite the multiple initiatives that turkish gov made to improve the relations with egypt ..they didnt do the same .. they keep take hostile measures against turkey .. they take place in every move against turkey .. so why do u care about them ? Why on earth would u ask the gov to not sell weapons and make friendship with a nation of 110 million people for sake of a puppet country an regime who are under controle of french saudi's ?
 

Nilgiri

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Nilgiri, I get the overall point you're trying to make but it seems like even if we ignore everything else about NATO, India vs. Turkey population size, etc, the point is that CAATSA is being used inconsistently.

If you think that users here are attacking India because of this, you are incorrect. They are simply pointing out that the US is being completely hypocritical and further proving that the sanctions against Turkey weren't because of the S-400. Those were just an excuse.

We don't even have to use India as an example nor is anyone asking that the US sanction India. More like unsanction Turkey and stop pretending that slapping CAATSA on them was remotely justified in the first place.

Bro I get what you are saying.
No I didn't feel like anyone here is attacking India or anything like that.
I just feel its something much larger than CAATSA going on (CAATSA selective application to Turkey).

I mean sticking to CAATSA needs some questions answered first:
- Why no CAATSA bill for PRC? (Given far larger threat to US interests than Russia)
- What exactly is the project of scale (of F-35 class and size) that India is involved with US that it could sanction like it has with Turkey?

The whole thing was set up to be inconsistently applied.....so its better to go deeper and look at the basis of inconsistent application in foreign policy.

i.e why it is too reductive to compare countries in 1:1 way (across huge differentials and contexts) from that basic angle itself.

You would first need equivalencines in India w.r.t a 70 year long collective security alliance involving the US.
With things like incirlik air base and US nuclear weapon hosting times whatever scaled factor for India.

With that same leverage intensity then afforded, the US would not apply it if an Indian admin went for S-400 at the same point Turkey did?


In CAATSA-free alternate universe, do TR members really think/feel US would simply not have used other (F-35 denial) sanction measures (past legislature bill)?
I mean it could be executive action or another kind of (more specific) legislature bill instead of CAATSA which has become a tool for it merely.

The bigger thing to get to is understanding why US - Turkey relations have evolved to what they have now and what to then forum consensus on internally to direct toward/away with time optimally (given whats baked in inertia wise from prior/ongoing arrangements and prior/ongoing reliances)

Listing up hypocrite point rapsheet in foreign policy (against say any of the p5 or large population countries generally) is not going to be productive.

They are X large and Y powerful in comparison to most countries of the world. Such a thing by very nature of foreign policy exercise is correlated to their size and power....given how foreign policy core doctrine runs in human power+tribal psyche in the end.

It is the very thing in how US "switched" to PRC recognition (seeing they could use the sino-soviet split to some advantage) in the early 70s and a defacto low-key alliance of sorts even.

Doing that despite what PRC did (to itself and others) that US found egregious and worse for a good length of time just prior to it (in scales again many times that it does towards Turkey today...just by raw population differentials involved).


Between India and US I can list out a whole lot of stuff (that turk members here feel about CAATSA-F35-S400 kind of stuff) and far larger ones (as they probably feel about YPG-syria stuff w.r.t US).

Past, present and future....the real negative+hypocrite stuff relationwise...

A well read American foreign policy wonk could probably do the same from his end regarding India.

But what is the point really?

Simplistically say US (or country X) bad?...when its larger phenomenon underlying it all that is really the thing to get at and understand.

If US didnt exist in today's world, another would simply take its place and we are back to square one if we do rapsheet exercise.
It is important to see deeper than that.
i.e that foreign policy is collective-tribal-interests based....and confined/constrained by any number of things that take long time to steer/orient differently.

How do you log and keep in mind rapsheet (you build with another, especially w.r.t powerful ones)....but not have (self-damaging given the power differential that exists) outbursts about it....given realpolitik weight of things.

I mean you cannot just wish away the NATO inertia stuff and its realised impact within Turkey over time.

How not to get angry....recognising its better to stay calm, plan things well, grow things well... to get even...or at least the best chance of making it so.

I find Turkey's last couple decades of foreign policy handling overall very subpar...even full considering of the particular lousy set of cards its been dealt on that front in that timeframe (esp w.r.t syria).

That must be looked at and corrected rather than cycle a victim complex w.r.t a larger power using its leverage on something it developed longer term with you.

The overdone victim complex is exactly what the larger power relishes you doing as it shows to them hitting home on a weakness.

I mean how has Turkey created situation where US and Russia are BOTH on the same side on the southern border?...as @GoatsMilk has queried multiple times on this forum.

The F-35 sanctions..."CAATSA et al"... is simply a cog in that larger miasma Turkey has demonstrably indulged and shown ineptitude on in foreign policy domain IMO.
 

Oublious

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Despite the multiple initiatives that turkish gov made to improve the relations with egypt ..they didnt do the same .. they keep take hostile measures against turkey .. they take place in every move against turkey .. so why do u care about them ? Why on earth would u ask the gov to not sell weapons and make friendship with a nation of 110 million people for sake of a puppet country an regime who are under controle of french saudi's ?


Egypt is a waste of time, they signed EEZ deal with Cyprus in 2003. It doesn't matter if we do all ther demands they would still act like this.
 

Abdelaziz

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Egypt is a waste of time, they signed EEZ deal with Cyprus in 2003. It doesn't matter if we do all ther demands they would still act like this.
Egyptians are kind and friendly people .. im speaking about their current regime just to be clear ... Its a puchist regime .. which is only concerned for been in power .. so they dont care about their national interest which will benefit a lot if they improved the relations with turkey ..but they act as a puppet for some powers which give them money and weapons since years just to play a specific role "just like what they used to "
 

Glass🚬

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Despite the multiple initiatives that turkish gov made to improve the relations with egypt ..they didnt do the same .. they keep take hostile measures against turkey .. they take place in every move against turkey .. so why do u care about them ? Why on earth would u ask the gov to not sell weapons and make friendship with a nation of 110 million people for sake of a puppet country an regime who are under controle of french saudi's ?

I dont think anybody cares about them but erdo is advised by a a small circle and they have dumb ideas and he follows these dumb ideas, the whole affair with egypt technically needs to end, its a worthless country and not worth the hassle.
Lets fuck up our relations more with egyptians fun fact lots of people worked so hard to get our relationships good with them (I don't like egyptians but You can't run a country with this shit dış siyaset)

But seems like we gotta make damat richer

They should have fully ended the relations with egypt instead of stroking their egos lol Ethiopia however is strategically an important country that needs to be defended, GERD is a strategic priority for Turkey irrelevant which ethnicity there rules.
 

Zafer

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Egypt should wisen up and care for their people's interests. They can not reverse the dam thing, they have to live with it. They should not seek alliance with useless partners and start with aligning with Turkey.

Edit: They should buy Turkish drones.
 
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AWP

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They should not seek alliance with useless partners and start with aligning with Turkey.

the west will not allow this to happen specially the us , germany , france and most importantly israel . I don't wanna talk deeply into this because its the wrong thread , but I would love to talk about it in the foreign thread
 
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Lool

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Egyptians are kind and friendly people .. im speaking about their current regime just to be clear ... Its a puchist regime .. which is only concerned for been in power .. so they dont care about their national interest which will benefit a lot if they improved the relations with turkey ..but they act as a puppet for some powers which give them money and weapons since years just to play a specific role "just like what they used to "
You literally summarised why Egypt wont ever mend ties with Turkey
Because the current regime thinks more about its own stability than the welfare of its ppl. If the current regime truly did care about Egypt, they wouldnt have sold 2 main vital islands to Saudi Arabia

As for KSA, they will never mend ties becase MBS hates Erdogan because Erdo is the one who made MBS get branded as a "killer" rather than a "reformist" for life

What ppl gets wrong like @Glass🚬 is that Erdo dont care much about really good ties with Egypt as indicated by the fact that he didnt try to mend ties with them for years. The idea of current actions is to put pressure on Greece

With Turkey trying to act as friendly, Greece knows that at any moment, Egypt may foresake them; thus, they will try to ignore more of the Egyptian regime horrific actions which indirectly puts more pressure on Egypt through human rights etc...

What should have been done is making peace with The UAE. This was a good choice since they are the only ones with brains in the Gulf
 

guest12

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EU is already working on 3 scenarios on Turkey after 2023 elections.
Like i said before if tomorrow they managed to create their EU Army we will be main target , not Russia and China as they claim.Russia is Christian while Chinese simply too far away.Thats why before its too late right enviroment must be created for development of nuclear weapons.
 
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Saithan

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Like i said beforw if tomorrow they managed to create their EU Army we will be main target , not Russia and China as they claim.Russia is Christian while Chinese simply too far away.Thats why before its too late right enviroment must be created for development of nuclear weapons.
Lost the chance to have Greece become refugee dump for EU thanks to a certain someone.
 

Lool

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EU is already working on 3 scenarios on Turkey after 2023 elections.
So let me get this straight....

1- Erdo wins and Turkey continue with its growing influence in Africa, continues its domestication policy in defense industry and starts to operate its nuclear reactors; thus becoming a pain in the ass to Europe since Turks are more self-dependent and can fight for their own intrests. As a result, EU should pressure Turkey, Turks, and Erdo even more to surrender amd return back to being EU's bitch


2- The opposition wins in which case the EU should work on remaking the ties with Turkey and for Turkey as well as the new ruling party to respect EU supremacy by continuing to be a host of refugees, stop its growing influence in Africa, gradually decrease its defense industry, stop claiming Turkey's EEZ, and above all to obviously stop Turkey's Akuyu Nuclear power plant and return to being EU's loyal bitch.

How are they so sure that the opposition will listen to them unless they made a deal behind the scenes in the first place. With this, Iam even more sure that the opposition made some sort of deal with the EU

3- The elections become postponed due to a possible conflict with Syria and Russia (and somehow ignoring that the US still arms the PKK and were the main reason for Turkish intervention in Syria) in which case EU should tread carefully and still force Turkey to return back and be its loyal bitch


Woow, Iam speechless! I never thought that EU supremacy was this corrupted in the minds of those rotten politicians. They somehow see themselves as nobles and Turkey and its ppl as peasants. And they still wonder why the US influence is waning and why Africa and the Middle East are moving more towards Turkey, Russia, and China, loool
Honestly, by now, I just wanna see the worst dream of the EU happens and for Turkey to become independent militarily and for Turkey to take back its EEZ by force
 
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Anastasius

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I'd be totally OK with stopping the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project. It's not beneficial to Turkey in the slightest, it's basically extortion by Russia. They will own and operate it with their own workers and charge Turkey for electricity generated by it while it is located on Turkey's own soil. It's the dumbest possible agreement for nuclear power you could sign with anyone, especially with your geopolitical rival. You are not getting any know-how out of it, you are not creating jobs, you don't own it, the safety and environmental concerns have not been adequately addressed and you'll have to pay to get benefits from it. But hey, a ton of people smarter than me have pointed out already how insanely stupid that project is so I might as well be beating a dead horse.
 

Lool

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I'd be totally OK with stopping the Akkuyu nuclear power plant project. It's not beneficial to Turkey in the slightest, it's basically extortion by Russia. They will own and operate it with their own workers and charge Turkey for electricity generated by it while it is located on Turkey's own soil. It's the dumbest possible agreement for nuclear power you could sign with anyone, especially with your geopolitical rival. You are not getting any know-how out of it, you are not creating jobs, you don't own it, the safety and environmental concerns have not been adequately addressed and you'll have to pay to get benefits from it. But hey, a ton of people smarter than me have pointed out already how insanely stupid that project is so I might as well be beating a dead horse.
From where do you get such info? Can u share your sources?
Firstly, the Akuyu nuclear deal is a multi-staged deal involving teaching nuclear engineer nuclear tech, involving turkish contractors as well as employing as much as possible within the power plant

Even if all of the above was a hoax, the fact tht Turkey will pay for its energy in lira rather than dollars will massively reduce the deficit, through reduction in dollars flying out of the country; in addition to the fact that a decent chunk of Turkey's energy will be protected from the wildly fluctuating oil and LNG prices that are screwing Turkey everyday


If the deal was as bad as you say, then why are the Europeans blowing their shit off from the deal
 
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Anastasius

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From where do you get such info? Can u share your sources?
Firstly, the Akuyu nuclear deal is a multi-staged deal involving teaching nuclear engineer nuclear tech, involving turkish contractors as well as employing as much as possible within the power plant

Even if all of the above was a hoax, the fact tht Turkey will pay for its energy in lira rather than dollars will massively reduce the deficit, through reduction in dollars flying out of the country; in addition to the fact that a decent chunk of Turkey's energy will be protected from the wildly fluctuating oil and LNG prices that are screwing Turkey everyday


If the deal was as bad as you say, then why are the Europeans blowing their shit off from the deal
Russia owns Akkuyu: https://tass.com/economy/1355809

Russian engineers will be the ones running the show: https://www.duvarenglish.com/only-r...ower-plant-in-turkey-says-engineer-news-59043

Akkuyu will not be priced in liras but in dollars for Rosatom to recoup the costs and as an example, Egypt's nuclear project with Russia will be charging far less than Turkey will be charged (link is Russian hackery but it does have good sources down the bottom): https://bellona.org/news/nuclear-is...-but-it-might-be-more-about-money-than-safety

If Europeans said that gravity exists, would you jump off a cliff? Besides, the article that was being cited did not mention Akkuyu. You just immediately came up with a list of scary things that the EU might do.
 

AWP

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people here speaking about turkey getting or developing a nuclear weapon like it's a candy or a kids toy
 

TheInsider

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Akkuyu nuclear plant will have 4 reactors with a total output of 4800MW. It will supply %10 of the electricity when all reactors are finished.
 
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