Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia Conflict

GoatsMilk

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Russia is certainly a historical adversary of Turkey, but the same can be said about the western bloc.
The actions of this western bloc with the aim of destabilizing turkey or even dividing it are indisputable,

- Support for pkk separatisites.
- Sanctions and destabilization of the economy.
- Embargo on certain sensitive technologies (civil and military).
- Unconditional and very generous military support for Turkey's regional adversaries, etc....

It is true that turkey has no interest in ukraine falling, but it has even less interest in going into destructive war with russia, where the only real winner is the other enemy, the Western bloc.
The only viable option in my humble opinion, it is the acceleration of the sanctuarization of turkey territory (including nuclear weapons).

Why do you guys swing to extremes? Turkey is against Russia is syria, libya, Azerbaijan, did it lead to an all out destructive war?

Unlike the Arabs, Turks don't really have a fetish for either side. Both are dangerous and hostile to Turkey. Russia is a more immediate threat for Turkey then the western bloc is. Only reason Turkey even joined NATO to begin with was because Stalin was making claims on Istanbul and eastern Turkey.

Western bloc has no real ability to stage an invasion against Turkey, but Russia if Turkey sits back and allows it to grow will do. The Russian ambition has always been to take control of Istanbul. A pretender power to the Roman empire.

Nah, you will be stupid to sit back and allow Russia to have thing their way in the region, absolutely stupid.
 

GoatsMilk

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There won't be any destructive war with Russia. They are already bombing TAF positions in Syria on a regular basis, Ukraine would simply be an opportunity to pay them back in kind and score some massive PR points in the process.

Yes exactly, why do people keep reading that support for Ukraine means declaring war on Russia?

In my eyes Ukraine is the perfect payback gift for the mess they created in Syria.
 

GoatsMilk

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Sometimes I think that we're not living in the same reality with regard to Turkey defending Ukraine vs. Russia.

Power aside, we shot down a Russian aircraft and our government bend backwards to mend ties incl. buying a very expensive air defence system and jailing innocent soldiers.

All Turkey has to do, is send weapons, advisors and soldiers who will operate under the Ukrainian army who officially are not Turkish. Turkey sent weapons and advisors to both Libya and Azerbaijan and it created absolute hell for Russia.

I would even find a way for the leadership of the Ukranian military to come under Turkish leadership, that way we know it won't collapse in the face of russian aggression.
 

GoatsMilk

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BTW the Russians see the writing on the wall. The entire western world sold Ukraine out and left her alone. Meanwhile Turkey has been selling her weapons and equipment. The Russians understand that if they sit back, the Turks will eventually arm and build Ukraine to a point where the invasion will be unlikely.

They already seen Turkey do this in Azerbaijan, Libya and Syria. They see Turkey reaching out to central asian Turkic states too. They want to move sooner rather then later.
 

mulj

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Turkey should monitor situation closely, if this intensification of conflict continues to grow and emerge in full blown war between Ukraine and separatists, that would be perfect opportunity to fulfill its own goals in Syria, as i really doubt that Russia could handle two hot situations simultaneously considering scope of involved parties.
 
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AlphaMike

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BTW the Russians see the writing on the wall. The entire western world sold Ukraine out and left her alone. Meanwhile Turkey has been selling her weapons and equipment. The Russians understand that if they sit back, the Turks will eventually arm and build Ukraine to a point where the invasion will be unlikely.

They already seen Turkey do this in Azerbaijan, Libya and Syria. They see Turkey reaching out to central asian Turkic states too. They want to move sooner rather then later.
There's a reason why the west would not sent weapons to Ukraine.

Simply put, no reforms, no weapons for Ukraine.

Ukraine would have to fix how its military works first before expensive arms comes in.
 

GoatsMilk

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There's a reason why the west would not sent weapons to Ukraine.

Simply put, no reforms, no weapons for Ukraine.

Ukraine would have to fix how its military works first before expensive arms comes in.

the west can send arms to the PKK, you can send weapons to Ukraine.
 

JackWhite

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the west can send arms to the PKK, you can send weapons to Ukraine.
In my opinion, even if Ukraine had enough weapons, it would hardly change the situation radically. Ukraine, like most countries, itself does not decide anything, but has only the semblance of power. To our great regret, this is confirmed by the still ongoing conflict in the east of Ukraine.
 

Che-40

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If russia decides to "invade" ukraine, those who by making a comparison between the situation in syria and ukraine, underestimate the russian response to any involvement by turkey or even the whole west in the conflict , must understand the difference between these two (to avoid making the same error of judgment as georgia).
For russia Syria is just an outpost in its international games, while Ukraine is the last defense before reaching Moscow (the response will be brutal).
Erdogan is unpredictable but I don't think he will go that way.
 
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mulj

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If russia decides to "invade" ukraine, those who by making a comparison between the situation in syria and ukraine, underestimate the russian response to any involvement by turkey or even the whole west in the conflict , must understand the difference between these two (to avoid making the same error of judgment as georgia).
For russia Syria is just an outpost in its international games, while Ukraine is the last defense before reaching Moscow (the response will be brutal).
Erdogan is unpredictable but I don't think he will go that way.
Turkey done its deeds in Ukraine and it is unreasonable to assume that wil involve further. West has that kind of obligation towards it, as much as it is sad to say in realpolitic terms and aspirations this conflict suits Turkey geopolitic interests but can not act as solo player by any means.
 
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what

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All Turkey has to do, is send weapons, advisors and soldiers who will operate under the Ukrainian army who officially are not Turkish. Turkey sent weapons and advisors to both Libya and Azerbaijan and it created absolute hell for Russia.

I would even find a way for the leadership of the Ukranian military to come under Turkish leadership, that way we know it won't collapse in the face of russian aggression.

This is literally the back garden of Russia, you think they will sit silently and watch?
 

GoatsMilk

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This is literally the back garden of Russia, you think they will sit silently and watch?

No i expect Russians to kill everything that moves, that doesnt mean we bend over and do nothing. The more we can do to make the situation difficult for Russia the better.

If we can even sell just one more drone to ukraine, we do it.
 

what

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No i expect Russians to kill everything that moves, that doesnt mean we bend over and do nothing. The more we can do to make the situation difficult for Russia the better.

If we can even sell just one more drone to ukraine, we do it.

I'm all for selling and supplying anything we can, but directly getting involved - thats only something that should be done with the umbrella of NATO or at least the big countries together.
 

Glass🚬

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Turkey should monitor situation closely, if this intensification of conflict continues to grow and emerge in full blown war between Ukraine and separatists, that would be perfect opportunity to fulfill its own goals in Syria, as i really doubt that Russia could handle two hot situations simultaneously considering scope of involved parties.

^this 100%
 

AlphaMike

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Now that everybody knows Russia will attack in January, would they still move ahead with the plan ?? I see they've lost the element of surprise.
 

Bogeyman 

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Now that everybody knows Russia will attack in January, would they still move ahead with the plan ?? I see they've lost the element of surprise.
I don't think they want to surprise for us. The activity in May had already been done to show. Therefore, if the Russians were really going to carry out covert operations they would not withdraw the troops at the border.
 

AlphaMike

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I don't think they want to surprise for us. The activity in May had already been done to show. Therefore, if the Russians were really going to carry out covert operations they would not withdraw the troops at the border.
Ukraine has a month or two to prepare, not saying that it can stands an all out Russian assault, but if defense are done properly Ukraine prolly could buy time until NATO would do something about it.

Although personally I don't think NATO would do anything. Hard to see NATO going to save Ukraine's ass when it's leader, the US, are preoccupied with China.
 

Pukovnik7

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Ukraine has a month or two to prepare, not saying that it can stands an all out Russian assault, but if defense are done properly Ukraine prolly could buy time until NATO would do something about it.

Although personally I don't think NATO would do anything. Hard to see NATO going to save Ukraine's ass when it's leader, the US, are preoccupied with China.
It all depends on how important Ukraine is to NATO, I think.
 
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