Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

blackjack

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Looks like total failure of Russia's S-300 / S-400 battery at Belbek airfield. The battery itself was the target and the ATACMS missiles look to have ripped right through it.

This is all about Western political will power. If the desire exists to provide Ukraine with enough ATACMS, JASSMS, Stormshadow and SCALP-EG, Ukraine will have the capacity to seriously damage Russian air defense capability and hammer Crimea and Russia's air force bases.

ATACMS: 200
JASSM: 200
Stormshadow: 100
SCALP-EG: 100

600 long range strikes missiles in 2024 is all it would really take to destroy tens of billions of dollars of Russian hardware and smash various Russian air fields, radar sites and ammunition depots.
Here is a step by step to be a "Normal" person discussing AD Loss.

1.Is the system on ?
2.If it's on what is the coverage and limitations ?
3.If the target is in the coverage and envelope, how many the targets are ?
4.Does the system got saturated?


Correct me if I'm wrong but as I understand it there were ten ATACM in the assault with one successfully hitting a military target. Assuming that the other nine didn't fall out of the sky of their own accord it means that they were shot down. What we don't know but a 90% system success rate against a ten volley is probably a result most AD managements would count as a win.

I dont where you are getting 10 billion dollars worth of equipment it's not like one air defense radar costs as much as one US aircraft carrier which are sinkable with hypersonic missiles as well.
1715803200891.png

600 were used in desert storm and iraqi freedom, you might need more than 600.
 

Relic

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Here is a step by step to be a "Normal" person discussing AD Loss.

1.Is the system on ?
2.If it's on what is the coverage and limitations ?
3.If the target is in the coverage and envelope, how many the targets are ?
4.Does the system got saturated?


Correct me if I'm wrong but as I understand it there were ten ATACM in the assault with one successfully hitting a military target. Assuming that the other nine didn't fall out of the sky of their own accord it means that they were shot down. What we don't know but a 90% system success rate against a ten volley is probably a result most AD managements would count as a win.

I dont where you are getting 10 billion dollars worth of equipment it's not like one air defense radar costs as much as one US aircraft carrier which are sinkable with hypersonic missiles as well.
View attachment 68039
600 were used in desert storm and iraqi freedom, you might need more than 600.
1. I didn't state that tens of billions in damages has been caused. I'm stating that if you saturate Russian Air Force bases and RADAR installations with ballistic and cruise missiles, tens of billions of dollars worth of damage could be done over the course of the year. That includes destroyed air defense, aircraft on the ground and airport infrastructure including runways, fuel depots, ammunition storage, RADARs, etc.

2. My suggestion of sending 600 ATACMS ballistic missiles and Stormshadow / SCALP-EG and JASSM cruise missiles was for 2024 alone. USA produces more than 500 ATACMS each year and has the capacity to produce between 500-1000 JASSMs per year. Many more would have to be committed in 2025 and beyond. 600 is just a start, if the goal is smashing the Russian Air Force facilities in Crimea and the Russian regions most adjacent to Ukraine.
 
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Relic

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Fuzuli NL

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lets read what your own source says 1st.
View attachment 68018
1st sentence is correct
the word imply on the 2nd sentence means "strongly suggest", meaning there was no written agreement they were demanding from NATO that it was guaranteed, so from your own sentence they did not demand removal of western troops into regards of the agreements they wanted with Ukraine.

The only agreements they wanted before Boris Johnson told the Ukrainians not to do it was written here.
View attachment 68019

Of course, this when Ukraine for 8 years violated the Minsk agreements multiple times. Thanks to Johnson the Russians will probably be demanding more things from Ukraine once the war is over.
The draft looks reasonable enough, Ukraine could've agreed except for the 7th point, however, Russia does have a reputation not holding up to commitments or pacts.
 

UkroTurk

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DraftUkraineCoTMay 15, 2024.png


❗Russian President Vladimir Putin emphatically downplayed the threat of Ukrainian counterattacks along the entire frontline, further indicating that he assesses that Ukraine cannot and will not be able to liberate territory seized by Russian forces and that this will allow Russian forces to pursue creeping advances indefinitely.


❗The tempo of Russian offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast continues to decrease after Russian forces initially seized areas that Ukrainian officials have now confirmed were less defended.

❗The US Helsinki Commission stated that the US should allow Ukraine to conduct strikes against military targets in Russia's border areas amid an ongoing Russian offensive operation into Kharkiv Oblast from Russia, although US officials continue to express unwillingness to support such strikes.
 
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blackjack

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1. I didn't state that tens of billions in damages has been caused. I'm stating that if you saturate Russian Air Force bases and RADAR installations with ballistic and cruise missiles, tens of billions of dollars worth of damage could be done over the course of the year. That includes destroyed air defense, aircraft on the ground and airport infrastructure including runways, fuel depots, ammunition storage, RADARs, etc.

2. My suggestion of sending 600 ATACMS ballistic missiles and Stormshadow / SCALP-EG and JASSM cruise missiles was for 2024 alone. USA produces more than 500 ATACMS each year and has the capacity to produce between 500-1000 JASSMs per year. Many more would have to be committed in 2025 and beyond. 600 is just a start, if the goal is smashing the Russian Air Force facilities in Crimea and the Russian regions most adjacent to Ukraine.
Gloating about a destroyed S-400 radar won't stabilize the front line and halt the progressive collapse of Ukrainian position.
Neither will gloating about another sunk boat of the Black Sea fleet.
Or another attack on the Crimean bridge.
Or another refinery attack.
Or another terror shelling of Belgorod.

Volleys of ATACMs have been used in the course of this year for like 1 confirmed S-400 radar getting destroyed. Russia has like what 400-500 S-400 launchers in their inventory?
 

MaciekRS

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You know and I know that this war will not end EVEN if Ukraine is somehow defeated.
Russia is all in and now they CANT go back so they will fight until they are defeated.
I would prefer for Ukraine to do it. If not then there is time for war russia vs Baltic countries, Poland, Finland and maybe few more Europian countries.
For now russia is using old post soviet stocks but we all can see (satellite pictures) that you are scraping the bottom of a barrel.
Russia is producing about 100-150 tanks a year, dozen fighters , ZERO larger planes as you lost capabilities to produce any large engine. You will have problem with barrels for your guns.
And the more you lose on Ukraine the better for us.

But lets face it, russia is North Korea of the XXI century. The REAL battle is US vs China (and China has every chance to win it) and this is only proxy war.
 

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Denmark 🇩🇰 stepped up today with a substantial new military aid package for Ukraine, valued at $815 million usd. Contents of the package include:

- 155mm artillery (CAESARS from France)
- 155mm artillery shells
- Maintainenance for damaged artillery
- Spare parts and maintenance for F-16s
- Anti-armor mines
- Cash for the procurement of air defense systems.

 

Relic

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The still new, German 🇩🇪 led initiative to procure additional air defense systems and associated equipment for Ukraine is beginning to yield results. Here is what has been committed so far.

Germany 🇩🇪: 1 additional Patriot battery and additional PAC 2 air defense missiles.

Italy 🇮🇹: 1 additional SAMP/T battery.

France 🇫🇷: Additional ASTER 30 missiles to support the SAMP/T Battery Italy is sending.

Australia 🇦🇺: RBS-70 SHORAD air defense systems.

Lithuania 🇱🇹: 8 Amber-1800 air defense radars.

Belgium 🇧🇪: $218 million usd towards the purchase of air defense systems.

Netherlands 🇳🇱: $163 million usd towards the purchase of air defense systems.

Norway 🇳🇴: $146 million usd towards the purchase of air defense systems.

Canada 🇨🇦: $57 million usd towards the purchase of IRIS-T air defense missiles.

Note: Romania 🇷🇴 has also announced that it is considering sending 1 additional Patriot battery, but a decision has not yet been made public.
 

Relic

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High resolution satellite imagery from Belbek airfield in Crimea has been released. We already saw the strikes that ripped through the S-400 battery on site, but last night's ATACMs strikes did meaningful damage as well.

Destroyed
Weapons storage facility
2x Mig-31K
1x SU-35

Severely Damaged
1x Mig-29

This is what I meant yesterday when I said that Ukraine could do "tens of billions" worth of damage to the Russian Air Force is they receive reasonable quantities of ATACMS, JASSMS, SCALP-EG and Stormshadow. Russia has some world class air defense systems, but they, like all systems, can be overwhelmed via saturation. Because Russia is such a large country, it's extremely hard for them to layer their air defense sufficiently enough to protect their major cities, Crimea, their energy infrastructure and their military bases in Western and Southern Russia. Ukraine has the opportunity to take advantage of this reality, but thry need adequate quantities of long range strike weapons.

 

Gary

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But lets face it, russia is North Korea of the XXI century. The REAL battle is US vs China (and China has every chance to win it) and this is only proxy war.

And who came up with this idea that Russia is the 21st-century North Korea? Certainly chief among them is at best :

  1. The Baltics
  2. Poland
  3. Romania
  4. And mostly Eastern Euro ex-COMECON countries
I have yet to notice the same amount of mongering from let's say, Spain, Iceland or Portugal or Southeast Asia, East Asia etc. So we know that this is just a hyperbole from the Eastern Europe part of NATO and not the actual fact.

And then there's the fact that you literally describe it as "But let's face it, russia is North Korea of the XXI century" as if North Korea had vanished many centuries ago.


If invading other countries, and securing national interests = North Korea, then the Americans would be the biggest North Korea in the world


The REAL battle is US vs China (and China has every chance to win it) and this is only proxy war.

Talking about proxy, your country is the chief example of what a proxy country looks like.

GROM_DN-SD-04-01612.JPEG


Poland entered the Iraq war not out of national security interest, but because it was demanded by the U.S. So it's funny for me to see comments from a citizen of a literal proxy trying to paint Russia, a country that goes to war out of national security necessity by its own as proxies themselves.

You know and I know that this war will not end EVEN if Ukraine is somehow defeated.
Russia is all in and now they CANT go back so they will fight until they are defeated.
I would prefer for Ukraine to do it. If not then there is time for war russia vs Baltic countries, Poland, Finland and maybe few more Europian countries.

One of the biggest misconceptions that the war has come up with is that Russia is going to invade NATO after the conclusion of the SMO. This isn't true, Putin realizes all too well that Russia is not in a position to challenge NATO yet in open battle. John Mearsheimer also thinks this way.

In fact, when it comes to Ukraine itself, Russia's demand isn't maximalist, they only want Ukraine up until Odesa and Kyiv, Lviv and the Trans Carpathian are up for anyone to do anything about it.
 
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Relic

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Ukraine is at it again tonight. They attacked the Russian Naval base at Novorossiysk. Videos are emerging of the oil terminal at the base being struck, as well as the Rosneft terminal in the city. No reports of damaged / destroyed naval assets, however.

This is how F-16s and JASSMs could help immensely. Saturate the air defenses at the base with a volley of cheap drones, then follow is with a volley of ADM-160 MALD decoys, combined with JASSMs. Hammer some of the Russian submarines and frigates in port and further degrade the fleet.

 

Relic

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What I would like to see in the next $1 Billion usd military aid package for Ukraine.

100× M198 155mm howitzers
Total cost: $50 million usd

36x M109A6 155mm howitzers
Total cost: $108 million usd

50x Bradley M2-ODS IFVs
Total cost: $100 million usd

50x Patriot PAC missiles
Total cost: $200 million usd

50x AIM-120 AMRAAM missiles
Total cost: $55 million usd

100x AIM-9M missiles
Total cost: $47 million usd

300x RIM-7 Sea Sparrow missiles
Total cost: $50 million usd

200x Stinger missiles
Total cost: $28 million usd

500x GMRLS rockets
Total cost: $84 million usd

100x ATACMS missiles
Total cost: $150 million usd

100,000 155mm artillery shells
Total cost: $200 million usd

50,000 105mm artillery shells
Total cost: $75 million usd.
 

MaciekRS

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FINALLY Ukraine is starting to attack russia, not their own teriitory occupied by putinokios troops like Donbas and Crimea but real russia like Novorossiysk base.
 

UkroTurk

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FINALLY Ukraine is starting to attack russia, not their own teriitory occupied by putinokios troops like Donbas and Crimea but real russia like Novorossiysk base.

In Novorossiysk, UAVs hit at least 2 oil depots and 2 terminals - ASTRA sources

As a result of the night attack on Novorossiysk, the Novorossiysk fuel oil terminal and the Importpischeprom terminal were damaged - in the latter, drones hit two fuel tanks (the shelling of this terminal is in the first video).

In addition, according to ASTRA, the attack resulted in an attack on the Gazprom oil depot in the village of Kirilovka and the Grushovaya Balka oil depot of Transneft. There were no casualties.

During the night, residents told ASTRA that they heard more than 35 explosions in the city.
The moments of the attack were caught on video. The governor officially announced an “unsuccessful attempt to attack the Ukrainian Armed Forces” and the downing of 10 UAVs. "Military correspondents" confirmed the "arrivals".

Residents reported at night that the port was without power.
The deputy mayor forbade residents from leaving their homes early in the morning, traffic was also blocked in the city and public transport did not work.
The Ministry of Defense later said that 44 UAVs were shot down over the region overnight.
In addition to Novorossiysk, Tuapse was attacked - an oil depot there caught fire after the attack.
 
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