Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

Soldier30

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Ukrainian media published a video allegedly showing North Korean soldiers in the Kursk region of Russia. It is unknown who is actually shown in the video, perhaps this is trolling Russian soldiers. It is reported that DPRK soldiers in Russia are taught mine-explosive work and the basics of the Russian language.

 

Soldier30

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Four Ukrainian kamikaze drones attacked the Russian city of Kaspiysk in Dagestan today, the video was published by local eyewitnesses. Some of the ships of the Russian Caspian Flotilla are stationed in Kaspiysk. Presumably, Ukrainian kamikaze drones of the A-22 "Flying Fox" aircraft type were used, the drones are based on the Aeroprakt A-22 aircraft. Some of the drones were shot down with small arms. Judging by the video, one of the drones presumably exploded near the decommissioned Russian missile boat "Stupinets" of Project 12411T, another drone exploded near a small missile ship of Project 21631. Presumably, Russian electronic warfare was operating in the port area, distorting the GPS signal, which is why the drones missed. At the moment, it is unknown whether the ships were damaged or not.

 

Relic

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You underestimate the willpower of the Russian people, they would have won this war regardless, only with many more million dead people and Ukraine would be even more exhausted and destroyed, already generations of Ukranian young men are dead, I wonder how their population will grow in the future to be honest.
This was the best case scenario for Ukraine... well... the best case would have been to negotiate a peace after the offensives they did when they held much more Ukranian land but that was long ago, sadly the West blinded by wanting to weaken Russia as much as possible was completely incompetent at preventing what happend in the past months where Ukraine has less and less land and it keeps losing more and more, so in the end they will have even less land available because of this st*pidity.
The facts of the reality on the ground don't support your assessment. We have irrefutable evidence that Russia is burning through it's inventory of armor and artillery at a rate that no country on Earth could possibly replace. Russia's offensive capabilities are not dictated by manpower, they are dictated by it's armored divisions. In modern war you cannot win by simply throwing more people at the problem, as long as the opposition is receiving the resources it needs to negate that manpower advantage. Despite the bellyaching in the media, Ukraine was receiving enough material support that as long as they could stomach losing hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians in combat, while trading small increments of land for space, time and the destruction of Russian war assets, a day would come where Ukraine stood and Russia's war arsenal was so depleted that Putin would have no choice to negotiate.

The reality, however, is that relied on the U.S. and their uniquely large weapons stockpiles and military industrial complex, for which Russia has no answer outside a few categories (artillery shell production as an example).

I know that I follow the transfer of military aid to Ukraine more than most. I also transfer the loss of that aid in combat more than most. However, I also follow Russia's losses as close as anybody, and make no mistake, the attrition to their armored inventory has been immense and it's not slowing down because they're on the offensive and offensives lead to significant losses. It's simply the nature of war.

With the U.S. stockpile of Bradleys, Strykers, M113s, MRAPS, M109s, M777s, Air Defense Systems and all of it's arms and ammunition slowly becoming unavailable to the Ukrainians, the advantage in quality and availability of equipment will give Russia decisive edge.

Even if Biden does send Ukraine $4 Billion usd worth of American equipment over the next 2.5 months using the remaining Presidential Drawdown Authority available to him, that's only enough armor and artillery for Ukraine to hold on for 4-6 months, which is not long enough for the attrition of Russian Army hardware to start causing the Russian war planners serious concerns as they try to maintain offensives on multiple fronts.

Ukraine only has one chance now. Europe. The $50 Billion usd loan from the G7 will reach Ukraine while Biden is still in office. That money will keep Ukraine in the fight for the majority of 2025. But what the European Union 🇪🇺, Britain 🇬🇧, Canada 🇨🇦, and Australia 🇦🇺 are willing to do beyond that will write the final chapter in the outcome of the war. If those countries see the Russian threat to Europe as severe enough, they will come up with the roughly $100 Billion usd Ukraine needs per year to keep exhausting the Russian military. If the political willpower is not there, Ukraine will be forced to capitulate to the negotiating table an accept an agreement (brokered by Trump) that heavily fails Russia and justifies the war effort the Putin's population.

The Trump win won't begin the show major holes in the Ukrainian war effort immediately. It will take time for the American funding to dry up. Biden is likely to send all that he's authorized to over the next 2.5 months, leaving the Ukrainians in the best situation he can as he heads out the door. But unless the likes of the European Union 🇪🇺 and their allies come together and decide that this is a war effort worth supporting, including substantial investments (tens of billions of usd) in Ukraine's domestic defense production, slowly this conflict will wind down, with favorable outcome for Russia.
 

blackjack

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Looks like either Zelensky is forced to give Donetsk to Russia and not allowed into NATO with no military supplies going into Ukraine. Or tell Trump to fuck off and only get supplied by Europe which will give Russians more territory like Odessa next making negotiations harder for Ukraine. Can't push back a country that has 10 times the artillery, an Air Force, strong military production chain of equipment and long range missiles and drones. Relics posts here of what Ukraine gets supplied with and Tams posts at sino defense forum shows them all getting destroyed a few weeks later. Having the US with a very high chance of cutting the funding and focusing on Iran instead is likely to happen. The Russians have moved slowed gaining territory by surrounding the Ukrainians to reduce casualties but the casualties will be lowered if Europe decides to do all the funding instead of the US. That's a big IF assuming Europe doesn't follow Trump's steps.
 

Relic

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One of the benefits of Trump winning this election while Russia is on the offensive is that it might serve as the wakeup call Europe, Britain and Canada need to finally make appropriate investments into their own defense. One thing that I've always agreed with Trump on is that many of our countries have relied on the U.S. footing the bill for too long, while the rest of us got to spent our money on social projects within our country.

In the real world, the ability to defend oneself matters to safety and security of the nation. There have already been transformational investments made across Europe and defense spending has spiked. Countries like Poland 🇵🇱 , Germany 🇩🇪 , Sweden 🇸🇪, Romania 🇷🇴 , Italy 🇮🇹 and the Czech Republic 🇨🇿 have announced major military spending over the last 2 years in response to Russian aggression, but that spending has to increase even more in the wake of the U.S. election. Europe 🇪🇺, Canada 🇨🇦 and Britain 🇬🇧 have to get serious about revamping their militaries and hitting their NATO spending targets. We've criminally underspent on many of our militaries. If we want NATO to continue being a viable defensive organization in the future and one that is able to continue to support Ukraine in the short term, decisive decision making has to happen quickly to prioritize defense, the same way public health was prioritized when the pandemic hit. If you genuinely think Russia is an existential threat to Europe, the way Covid-19 was, then your spending willpower has to rise to meet the threat. If you want Trump to continue supporting NATO, the other countries within NATO have to live up to the expectations outlined in their treaty. That includes a minimum of 2% of GDP spent by all participating members EACH YEAR consistently.

Europe has an opportunity to shine here, or they have an opportunity to falter and do nothing. I'm leaning towards them doing nothing of significance but I'll be watching eagerly in hopes of being proven wrong. I'll also be very curious to see which leaders step up to fill Biden's shoes as the Ukraine's lead supporters. It can't be one person, but can a coalition step up and work together?

Time will tell.
 

Relic

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Looks like either Zelensky is forced to give Donetsk to Russia and not allowed into NATO with no military supplies going into Ukraine. Or tell Trump to fuck off and only get supplied by Europe which will give Russians more territory like Odessa next making negotiations harder for Ukraine. Can't push back a country that has 10 times the artillery, an Air Force, strong military production chain of equipment and long range missiles and drones. Relics posts here of what Ukraine gets supplied with and Tams posts at sino defense forum shows them all getting destroyed a few weeks later. Having the US with a very high chance of cutting the funding and focusing on Iran instead is likely to happen. The Russians have moved slowed gaining territory by surrounding the Ukrainians to reduce casualties but the casualties will be lowered if Europe decides to do all the funding instead of the US. That's a big IF assuming Europe doesn't follow Trump's steps.
No need for the spreading of propaganda. We have plenty of open source tracking (Oryx, War Spotting, Andrew Perpetua, etc) that keep track of equipment losses on both sides of the conflict. Ukraine absolutely DOES NOT have all Western equipment sent to the war destroyed in a matter of weeks. They do suffer attrition, as is always the case in war, but it's nothing like the narrative you're painting. For example among key American equipment sent to the war, we have video / visual evidence of the Ukraine losing the following (not counting units repaired and returned to combat):

M1A1 Abrams MBTs 🇺🇸
Received: 31
Destroyed: 8
Damaged: 6
Captured: 1
Remaining: 16 (52%)

Bradley M2-ODS IFVs 🇺🇸
Received: 300
Destroyed: 54
Damaged: 50
Captured: 5
Remaining: 191 (64%)

Stryker APCs 🇺🇸
Received: 400
Destroyed: 19
Damaged: 5
Captured: 4
Remaining: 372 (93%)

M113 APCs 🇺🇸
Received: 900
Destroyed: 114
Damaged: 32
Captured: 19
Remaining: 735 (82%)

MRAPS 🇺🇸
Received: 1400
Destroyed: 139
Damaged: 20
Captured: 15
Remaining: 1226 (88%)

M777 155mm Howitzers 🇺🇸
Received: 189
Destroyed: 55
Damaged: 43
Captured: 0
Remaining: 91 (48%)

M109A6 155mm Howitzers 🇺🇸
Received: 18
Destroyed: 3
Damaged: 0
Captured: 0
Remaining: 15 (83%)

Anyone who cares to do a little bit of research knows that Ukraine still possesses the overwhelming majority of armor and artillery that the USA has sent them, but we also know that unless further shipments are made, eventually Russia will wear this equipment down and overwhelm the Ukrainians. Biden has about $4 Billion usd left in his PDA Authority. Reasonably, he could probably send Ukraine the following armor and artillery over the next 2.5 months (keeping in mind that much of the money would have to go towards sending ammunition, spare parts, etc along with it).

200 Additional Bradley IFVs
100 Additional Stryker APCs
500 Additional MRAPS
18 Additional M777s
18 Additional M109s

Along with European support that would be enough to keep Ukraine's brigades strong for another 8 months - 1 year, but with nothing left coming behind that to replaces those losses, Russia would eventually inflict too much attrition and Ukraine would be forced to the bargaining table under really bad conditions.


 

blackjack

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No need for the spreading of propaganda. We have plenty of open source tracking (Oryx, War Spotting, Andrew Perpetua, etc) that keep track of equipment losses on both sides of the conflict. Ukraine absolutely DOES NOT have all Western equipment sent to the war destroyed in a matter of weeks. They do suffer attrition, as is always the case in war, but it's nothing like the narrative you're painting. For example among key American equipment sent to the war, we have video / visual evidence of the Ukraine losing the following (not counting units repaired and returned to combat):

M1A1 Abrams MBTs 🇺🇸
Received: 31
Destroyed: 8
Damaged: 6
Captured: 1
Remaining: 16 (52%)

Bradley M2-ODS IFVs 🇺🇸
Received: 300
Destroyed: 54
Damaged: 50
Captured: 5
Remaining: 191 (64%)

Stryker APCs 🇺🇸
Received: 400
Destroyed: 19
Damaged: 5
Captured: 4
Remaining: 372 (93%)

M113 APCs 🇺🇸
Received: 900
Destroyed: 114
Damaged: 32
Captured: 19
Remaining: 735 (82%)

MRAPS 🇺🇸
Received: 1400
Destroyed: 139
Damaged: 20
Captured: 15
Remaining: 1226 (88%)

M777 155mm Howitzers 🇺🇸
Received: 189
Destroyed: 55
Damaged: 43
Captured: 0
Remaining: 91 (48%)

M109A6 155mm Howitzers 🇺🇸
Received: 18
Destroyed: 3
Damaged: 0
Captured: 0
Remaining: 15 (83%)

Anyone who cares to do a little bit of research knows that Ukraine still possesses the overwhelming majority of armor and artillery that the USA has sent them, but we also know that unless further shipments are made, eventually Russia will wear this equipment down and overwhelm the Ukrainians. Biden has about $4 Billion usd left in his PDA Authority. Reasonably, he could probably send Ukraine the following armor and artillery over the next 2.5 months (keeping in mind that much of the money would have to go towards sending ammunition, spare parts, etc along with it).

200 Additional Bradley IFVs
100 Additional Stryker APCs
500 Additional MRAPS
18 Additional M777s
18 Additional M109s

Along with European support that would be enough to keep Ukraine's brigades strong for another 8 months - 1 year, but with nothing left coming behind that to replaces those losses, Russia would eventually inflict too much attrition and Ukraine would be forced to the bargaining table under really bad conditions.


That's the thing you use sources that don't show evidence while I do.
chrome_screenshot_Nov 6, 2024 1_33_38 PM EST.png

chrome_screenshot_Nov 6, 2024 1_34_50 PM EST.png

This is what it's like everyday so I wasn't joking with you that you post what Ukraine gets and I use Tams posts in what gets destroyed(this is just recorded destruction most shit goes unrecorded)
Now Tam would make 2 full posts a day which was Ukrainian lines had more equipment some months ago, the reason it is mostly less now is this past week or more is that Ukrainians are retreating more. What you post takes awhile for them to receive but what happens in a single day a good portion amount of what is given to Ukraine gets destroyed. Ukrainians are still indecisive if they could launch another counteroffensive or not in 2025 because they are getting all their reserve units destroyed in Kursk and are losing ground there along with the front lines collapsing I think it will be in Ukraines best interests to follow Trump's proposal which will be give them Donetsk now or lose more.

These past few years you have made lots and lots of posts of what Ukraine has received. I think it is common sense that if you are still posting Ukraines package deals it must mean they are getting all that shit destroyed.
Just for the fun of it I will browse your profile later see your posts from February 22, 2022, what Ukraine had before that year and your latest updates of what Ukraine is receiving now.https://gazeta-ru.turbopages.org/turbo/gazeta.ru/s/army/2024/09/17/19762009.shtml ukraine has like 2.4 million russian soldiers to get rid of. Good luck if Europe will be the only ones giving the goods assuming they don't pull a trump next.



According to published data, about 100 tanks, 50 self-propelled artillery units and 23-25 different MLRS were delivered to the Russian army every month. Deliveries of towed guns reached 200 units per month, in addition, the Russian Armed Forces were replenished with hundreds of infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers every month. The Ukrainian army received several times less Western weapons, since the US and European military-industrial complexes were never able to increase production volumes

1700033397_screenshot_1.jpg


You are under the impression that because the Biden administration still supports Ukraine that victory is certain because what other reasons would they still support Ukraine if they are to lose? The Trump administration might send a news flash to you next on why he is consistent about not wanting to give Ukraine anymore money. You argue that Europe and the US are not giving enough equipment to Ukraine it could be either 1) they don't have the production means. 2) giving less because they don't believe Ukraines victory. If NATO was to reach their goal for this war they would have gave them more equipment that you yourself are begging for instead of the Russians going from a slow to fast pace in currently grabbing more territory with no major Ukraine counteroffensive planned yet after 2025.
 

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You're smart. Call Putin and tell him to stop attacking Ukraine if you want to save lives.
How would it be smart to call someone and tell them not to do something that he will clearly do no matter what anyone says? Thats just ignorant and st*pid, kind of like most of the European politics in the past years.
 

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I am again curious why people think that Trump's victory means that the US will no longer support Ukraine. Again I would like to remind people that he was the one that increased support to Ukraine in the first place and his criticism of the situation isn't that Ukraine should shut up and take it but that the current US administration has handled the entire affair in an exceedingly poor manner.
 

blackjack

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I am again curious why people think that Trump's victory means that the US will no longer support Ukraine. Again I would like to remind people that he was the one that increased support to Ukraine in the first place and his criticism of the situation isn't that Ukraine should shut up and take it but that the current US administration has handled the entire affair in an exceedingly poor manner.
Straight from his mouth in case your forgot

Trump says Ukraine’s Zelensky should ‘never have let that war start’
During an interview, former president Donald Trump blamed Ukraine’s leader for allowing the war in Ukraine to start, even though Russia was the aggressor.

Trump called Zelensky “one of the greatest salesmen I’ve ever seen” and marveled at how much aid Ukraine has received from the United States.

Who else got that kind of money in history?” Trump said in the interview with podcaster Patrick Bet-David. “There’s never been. And that doesn’t mean I don’t want to help him because I feel very badly for those people. But he should never have let that war start. That war’s a loser.”


This is who Zelensky will be dealing with in 2 months. Moments later we already have doom articles


Ukraine can be saved if Biden pulls a WW3 before Trump's term
 

Relic

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Ukraine 🇺🇦 announced that they are increasing their defense budget to $53.38 billion usd in 2025, which will represent 26% of their GDP.

Total funding for Ukraine's defense in 2025 will look like this as of right now..

Ukraine 🇺🇦: $53.38 Billion usd
G7 Loan: $50 Billion usd
NATO (USA excluded): $46 Billion usd

Total: $149.38 Billion usd.

Needless to say, Ukraine will have plenty of funding for its 2025 war effort, however, there is a major question here... Will Donald Trump allow Ukraine to use the G7's $50 Billion usd loan to buy weapons directly from the U.S. defense industrial base in order to keep up with the demand of items it needs to stay in the fight against the Russians?... One would think that Trump, given his business acumen, would be quick to allow that money go be spent in the USA, but time will tell.


 

Relic

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As I suspected, Politico is reporting that the Biden Government plans to surge aid packages to Ukraine over the coming months to use the last of the USAI and Presidential Drawdown Authrority that remains authorized by Congress. In total there is $2.1 Billion worth of USAI remaining and $4.3 Billion usd worth of PDA remaining, for a total for $6.4 Billion usd.

Unfortunately, there is a catch, however. There is usually a delay (sometimes it's several months) between the announcement of weapons for Ukraine and their arrival in theater. That means Biden can rush as much as possible right now, but it's unlikely that $6.4 Billion usd worth of equipment will ship before Trump takes office. If that's the case, Trump could very easily put a stop on the shipments of remaining aid upon taking office, despite Biden already authorizing them.

I'll be very curious to see how aggressive Biden is in surging aid and what his government prioritizes being sent $6.4 Billion usd is a lot of money when talking about assets that are valued a depreciated rate. USA could send quite a lot. Time will tell if they do.

 

Spitfire9

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You underestimate the willpower of the Russian people, they would have won this war regardless, only with many more million dead people and Ukraine would be even more exhausted and destroyed, already generations of Ukranian young men are dead, I wonder how their population will grow in the future to be honest.
This was the best case scenario for Ukraine... well... the best case would have been to negotiate a peace after the offensives they did when they held much more Ukranian land but that was long ago, sadly the West blinded by wanting to weaken Russia as much as possible was completely incompetent at preventing what happend in the past months where Ukraine has less and less land and it keeps losing more and more, so in the end they will have even less land available because of this st*pidity.
Yes, a lot of Ukrainians are dead because Russia attacked their country. Like it or not, a lot of Russians are dead because when Russia attacked Ukraine, the country under attack chose to resist. Did the USSR choose to resist when attacked in 1941? Yes, at the cost of many millions of lives. By the sound of things, you think it stupid or irresponsible for people to defend their country and way of life when attacked. Was Stalin stupid or irresponsible to resist Germany's attack on his country? If you think he was, your apparent view that Ukraine was stupid and irresponsible to resist attack makes sense. If you think he wasn't, your apparent view does not make sense.

I partially agree with your comment about the West being blinded by wanting to weaken Russia - I think that is the motive for the US, but not the European countries. I think that the US has been quite successful in that endeavour. Russia has expended a vast number of troops, a vast amount of money and sustained a vast amount of economic damage in trying to resurrect this corner of its past empire.
 

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Yes, a lot of Ukrainians are dead because Russia attacked their country. Like it or not, a lot of Russians are dead because when Russia attacked Ukraine, the country under attack chose to resist. Did the USSR choose to resist when attacked in 1941? Yes, at the cost of many millions of lives. By the sound of things, you think it stupid or irresponsible for people to defend their country and way of life when attacked. Was Stalin stupid or irresponsible to resist Germany's attack on his country? If you think he was, your apparent view that Ukraine was stupid and irresponsible to resist attack makes sense. If you think he wasn't, your apparent view does not make sense.

I partially agree with your comment about the West being blinded by wanting to weaken Russia - I think that is the motive for the US, but not the European countries. I think that the US has been quite successful in that endeavour. Russia has expended a vast number of troops, a vast amount of money and sustained a vast amount of economic damage in trying to resurrect this corner of its past empire.

Comparing the German invasion of the USSR with the Russian one of Ukraine is comparing apples and oranges, you know very well the situation is very different, however you like to view the situation with your rainbow colored glasses.
You know very well how the situation was with NATO expanding to Russian borders, with Ukraine bombarding and killing thousands of people and destroying homes of those people who were louder and louder about becoming independant.. yeah im not going into all that because you know it even tho you try your best to ignore it, or maybe the propaganda has taken its toll and blinded you?
Russia was very clear about their stance regarding all of this and yet the west ignored it completely even tho they very clearly stated countless times what will happen if NATO continues on this path.
So don't pretend to ignore it.
Do I support Russia's invasion of Ukraine and going all in? Of course not, but to say they have not warned countless times what will happen if certain things keep getting ignored by the west is plain ignorant, NATO basically provoked this war, it was completely preventable.

The only thing you can possibly argue here is the fact that a neighbouring country should have such influence on another independant country, but sadly that argument fails because Russia is a nuclear superpower so they have their interests and say in those things whether you like it or not, just like the USA and other superpowers have their say in those things and influence.
If Ukraine for example brutally bombards civilians who want to have independance and Russia just decides to abuse this situation to launch an invasion after the west ignored countless warnings of this then its no different than the USA launching countless invasions on independant countries in the past 70 years by using the same excuses and arguments than Russia has this time.

The problem I have with most posters in this thread is they are just plain biased, they completely condemn Russia for every single thing and call it the evil empire, power hungry and expansionist, attacking poor countries and civilians and being evil and cruel and horrible, and yet when the USA did the same things MANY times or when Israel did or DOES the same things MANY times its all ok and great and perfect, they are fighting for a just cause and are innocent and clean and are saving the poor country they are invading... man it just makes me vomit almost...
 

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An episode of the assault on a stronghold of the Ukrainian army in the border part of the Kursk region of Russia. A group of Russian soldiers in a BMP-2 advanced to the stronghold and landed troops. The assault on the stronghold was carried out from the flanks, the BMP-2s provided fire support and suppressed the work of the stronghold's firing points. Artillery also worked. The dead soldiers are hidden in the video.

 

Woland

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Comparing the German invasion of the USSR with the Russian one of Ukraine is comparing apples and oranges, you know very well the situation is very different, however you like to view the situation with your rainbow colored glasses.
You know very well how the situation was with NATO expanding to Russian borders, with Ukraine bombarding and killing thousands of people and destroying homes of those people who were louder and louder about becoming independant.. yeah im not going into all that because you know it even tho you try your best to ignore it, or maybe the propaganda has taken its toll and blinded you?
Comparing Russia's invasion of Ukraine to WWII is accurate. In both cases, the defense of "ethnic" Germans/Russians was used as pretext for grabbing land. "Ukraine bombing and killing thousands of people" is a Russian propaganda narrative that has little basis in reality, and using it as pretext for the wider invasion makes even less sense; according to the UN, during Russia’s 2014-2021 military operations against Ukraine, 14,500 people died in Donbas. 3,404 were civilians (on both sides of fighting), 4,400 were Ukrainian servicemen and 6,500 were Russian militants.

If we break it down by year the picture is even more striking.

Commissioner for Human Rights in the Donetsk People’s Republic (an official pro-Russian source): military / civilian
2014: 2,546
2015: 1,395
2016: 348
2017: 278 / 32
2018: 154 / 19
2019: 160 / 9
2020: 44 / 5
2021: not reported

Claiming to have launched a war that resulted in 100,000s of deaths over something that had slowed down to such an extent that in the preceding 5 years there were 65 civilian deaths, is patently absurd. More people died from cows.

Furthermore, there was no "loud movement about becoming independent" in Donbas, just like there was no loud movement to become independent in neighboring Russian-speaking Kharkiv, where I'm from. The reality is that in both places a minority of society, heavily instigated by Russia, was interested in any semblance of independence.

We can discuss this war in practical terms, but stop regurgitating Russian propaganda about its actions having any moral basis.
 

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