Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

AlphaMike

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some take:

  • The Western allies really weren't expecting Kyiv to survive the initial assault, hence only token amount of ATGM and defensive light weapons were sent pre- 24 Feb.​
  • Weapons shipment will continue to be heavier after the west realize the Ukrainians (unlike Afghans) could and want to resist.​
  • Ukraine has the better tactical performance through the entire war. Russia is slowly adapting.​
  • Even that, we're still talking months if not years before Russia could be degraded, Russia still has a huge number of military equipment in its arsenal.​
 

Ravenman

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Russia produced and stocked the most weaponry during Soviet era. They produced and stocked more than all other countries combined.

They need more Ukraine's to get their arsenal depleted.
 

Bogeyman 

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USA decided to give Patriot SAM system to Ukraine
Source: washingtonpost

U.S. deepens Ukraine commitment with $40 billion in aid, expanded NATO​


The bill, passed on an 86-to-11 vote Thursday, provides a combined $20 billion in military aid that is expected to finance the transfer of advanced weapons systems, such as Patriot antiaircraft missiles and long-range artillery.

 

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Bogeyman 

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I very doubt. And I dont think Patriot is something Ukrainians need now.

Its very complicated, bulky and poorly mobile system. It will need lots of time to train. It can be destroyed quite easily destroyed with cruise missiles (Russia has plenty of them).
I don't think they will destroy it while it is possible to seize it.
 

GoatsMilk

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some take:

  • The Western allies really weren't expecting Kyiv to survive the initial assault, hence only token amount of ATGM and defensive light weapons were sent pre- 24 Feb.​
  • Weapons shipment will continue to be heavier after the west realize the Ukrainians (unlike Afghans) could and want to resist.​
  • Ukraine has the better tactical performance through the entire war. Russia is slowly adapting.​
  • Even that, we're still talking months if not years before Russia could be degraded, Russia still has a huge number of military equipment in its arsenal.

How much material does Russia have exactly?
 

Shin x Vladilena

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I very doubt. And I dont think Patriot is something Ukrainians need now.

Its very complicated, bulky and poorly mobile system. It will need lots of time to train. It can be destroyed quite easily destroyed with cruise missiles (Russia has plenty of them).
It's not for now, but for future. The training can start now and the equipments can be send to Ukraine in the next several years later, no need to send it immediately this year.

To use it effectively, Ukrainian military need to undergo doctrine and system adaptation, it will take a some time. They simply cannot use it immediately even if US send it this year.
 

Nilgiri

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Ukrainian Journalist Yuriy Butusov says that he and Ukrainian soldiers, while on reconnaissance, stole a Russian BMP-1 from a Captain Dmitry Furdui of the Russian 35th Separate Guards Motor Rifle Brigade, just 100m from enemy positions.

FTOW37ZWQAYvIjV
 

era_shield

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U.S. deepens Ukraine commitment with $40 billion in aid, expanded NATO​


The bill, passed on an 86-to-11 vote Thursday, provides a combined $20 billion in military aid that is expected to finance the transfer of advanced weapons systems, such as Patriot antiaircraft missiles and long-range artillery.

WaPo being a garbage news source as usual. They are just giving examples of "advanced weapon systems", it doesn't mean those are the systems they will give to Ukraine.
 

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I don't think they will destroy it while it is possible to seize it.
Seizing is totally out of question. Such systems are located in deep rear and Russians are advancing very very slowly.
 

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Here a big pic of Russian advance since the beginning of "second phase" from 1st April to 21 May:

UAapril1.jpg
UAmay21.jpg


Very minor advance. Basically WW1 style positional war.
 

Azbaroj

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Here a big pic of Russian advance since the beginning of "second phase" from 1st April to 21 May:

View attachment 44089View attachment 44090

Very minor advance. Basically WW1 style positional war.
By the July and August a large quantity of Western advanced weapons will be delivered to Ukraine and Russians will not be able to sustain their occupied territories, they have to withdraw from most of the Ukrainian land by September and October . A karabakh style attack will be effectively drive away Russians from occupied territories of Ukraine .
 

Anastasius

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How much material does Russia have exactly?
In the 10000-20000 range. However Ukraine already destroyed several thousand. You also have to consider how much of Russia's military material is actually ready for combat and not just rusted junk that's been rotting in storage for 30+ years.
 

Quasar

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-Unless there is regime change in Ukraine which seems impossible , Russia strategically failed and failed miserably. NATO gained a buffer zone between its members in Eastern Europe and Russia . Ukraine became unoffical new member of NATO without the previlage of article 5.

-Sweden and Finland became a bonus strategic failure for Russia as well (regardless of the fact that they become a NATO member or not) Baltics has been a weak spot for NATO against Russia. With heavy American presence in Greece, European self containment from North to South has been completed. I believe we Turkey is a kind of roge buffer zone in Wests eyes.

-it becomes clear that USA and UK are the main actors who have the will and power to satisfy security concers of Europe

-it also becomes clear that France and the idea of European Army has its limitations and far from satisfying security concerns in case of an actual threat
 
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By the Juy and August a large quantity of Western advanced weapons will be delivered to Ukraine and Russians will not be able to sustain their occupied territories, they have to withdraw from most of the Ukrainian land by September and October . A karabakh style attack will be effectively drive away Russians from occupied territories of Ukraine .
I dont expect big changes. In best case scenario Ukrainians will stop Russian advance and will slowly push Russians back. For effective offensive u need air superiority and strong armor divisions. Nothing like this going to happen.
 
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