Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Nykyus]

Poland, Ukraine, Belarus, the Baltic countries are connected by a common history, this history is much longer than the history of Ukraine as part of Russia (Muscovy). For Russian, Soviet historians Stefan Batory is evil squared. But initially the Ukrainians were formed from the Tatars - Cossacks after the collapse of the Golden Horde and they had a rebellious spirit.

 

[Nykyus]

Map compiled by Tatar historians. On the territory of the Grand Duchy of Lithuania in pink, where the territory of Ukraine is marked with the Wild Field, where the Tatars roamed. The Lithuanian Tatars were called Lipka https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lipka_Tatars. Part converted to Orthodoxy became known as the Cossacks.

 

[Relic]

I just want to add my observation, at this stage it is not the platforms that I worry about, it is the ammunitions. Specially for howitzers, On which all western allies are running super low except US. And for worse, they don’t even have capacity to produce it in enough numbers In rapid enough time.

Nor does Russia though. Neither party can afford to fire tens of thousands of artillery rounds every day and keep pace. Russia has already seen their fire rate decrease from 20,0000 rounds per day to 5000-7000 rounds per day and U.S. and British intelligence has noted that they're burning through their stockpiles at a much faster rate than Russian industry can replace them. This can be made a further problem by Ukraine continuing to focus on targeting Russian supply lines and ammunition depots / storage sights.

As for Ukraine, you're correct in that the Western supply of 155mm ammunition is strained and is restricting Ukraine to a fire rate of approximately 3000-5000 rounds of that type, per day. It's being supplemented by several thousand rounds of 105mm artillery and 120mm, 81mm, 82mm and 60mm mortar rounds that are highly useful against infantry waves. The West is ramping up their production, albeit at a slower initial rate. Some rough figures I've seen so far suggest that by the summer USA will be producing approximately 25,000 rounds per month (with the goal of 40,000 by 2024 and 90,000 by 2025). Canada is gearing up to produce 12,000 rounds per months and their primary manufacturer, is trying to get a longer term U.S. contract at that quantity. Germany is also going to ramp up into the 15,000-20,000 round range per month range, with the loftier goals into 2024. Britain will likely match the German initiative and France and Australia have announced a partnership for Nexter to produce undisclosed thousands of rounds in France. That's what we know so far. What we don't know is what the capacity of countries like Sweden are to ramp up production. We also know that the Czech Republic, Bulgaria and Ukraine are ramping up production of 122mm and 152mm artillery shells, but we can't expect that combined effort to produce more than probably 10,000 rounds per month.

The wildcards, of course, are South Korea, Pakistan Israel and Turkey. All four countries have substantial inventories of 155mm artillery shells and some of them have substantial production capacity. Their willingness to backfill Western inventories, or ship ammunition to Ukraine directly (even if quietly) will help bridge that gap while Western production ramps up. In the case of South Korea, in particular, their production capacity is such that they can actually meaningfully contribute to the monthly alotment of 155mm shells for Ukraine, if they have the political will do so.

I'm comfortable in suggesting that existing Western inventories, combined with the ramping up of combined production will allow Ukraine to continue firing 5000-7000 rounds per day (122mm, 152mm, 105mm and 155mm combined) supplemented by mortar rounds. I doubt we'll see them be able to fire more than that for any sustained period. We'll see what Russia can do.

 

[Relic]

Prediction for amor that will arrive in Ukraine before the fall of 2023, beginning with what has been announced thus far in 2022.

Main Battle Tanks
- 62 M1A2 (USA)
- 80-100 Leopard 1 (German industry)
- 80-100 Leopard 2 (Europe + Canada)
- 150-200 T-72 (Czech Republic + Poland + Morocco)
- 80-100 PT-91 (Poland)
- 14 Challenger 2 (Britain)

Tank Destroyers
- 40-60 AMX10-RC (France)

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
- 200 Bradley M2 (USA)
- 60-80 CV90 (Europe)
- 60-80 Marder (Germany)
- 60-80 BMP-1 and BMP-2 (Europe)

Armoured Personnel Carriers
- 180-200 Stryker (USA)
- 150-200 Bulldog (Britain)
- 100-200 M113s (USA + Europe)
- 150 Kirpi (Turkey)
- 40-50 VAB (France)
- 50 Dingo (Germany)
- 30 Bushmaster (Australia)
- 250-300 Maxxpro and Cougar (USA)

Infantry Mobility Vehicles
- 300-400 HMMWVs (USA + Europe)
- 200 Roshel Senators (Canada)
- 40-50 Bastion (France)
- 100-150 Iveco LMVs (Europe)

Artillery (towed and self propelled)
- 30-50 L118 and L119, 105mm towed howitzers (USA +Europe)
- 20-30 D-30, 122mm towed howitzers (Estonia + Europe)
- 40-50 FH-70, 155mm towed howitzers (Estonia + Europe)
- 19 CAESAR, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Denmark)
- 36 M109A6 Paladin, 155mm self propelled howitzers (USA)
- 20-30 M109, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Europe)
- 30 AS-90, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Britain)
- 12 Archer, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Sweden)
- 10-15 Dana M2, 122mm self propelled howitzers (Czech Republic) - part of a batch ordered in 2022.
- 10-15 Zuzana 2, 155m self propelled howitzers (Slovakia)- Part of a batch ordered in 2022.
- 10-15 Krab, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Poland)- Part of a batch ordered in 2022.

I'm sure I missed some things, but I think this will be the core of the armor and artillery that will arrive in Ukraine between January 1st, 2022 and August 31st, 2022.

 

[Relic]

Look, I take the Ukrainian reports of Russian casualties with a grain of salt, because I suspect that they are undoubtedly exaggerated / inflated to some extent for propaganda purposes (Russia does the same), but after seeing the videos from Russia's failed advance in Vuhledar yesterday, it's easy to believe that the numbers from yesterday are fairly accurate. It was, obviously a slaughter. The videos are all over Telegram and Nitter.

This was from yesterday alone. Keep in mind that they're from across the entire Eastern / Southern front.

- 1030 Russians KIA
- 14 MBTs Destroyed
- 28 APVs Destroyed

The Russians drove an armored column, supported by infantry, right through a pre-fixed Ukrainian artillery position. The artillery was also drone corrected and supported by Ukrainian mortar teams. It was a complete massacre.

http://imgur.com/ge01kKT

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622851133696770049

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622631003800870912

There are about a dozen videos of infantry being massacred by artillery, mortars and drone dropped grenades.

 

[MaciekRS]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622719688860991492

I'm saying it again. Especially Turks and Muslims, be careful who you support.

PLS STOP with that FAKE FSB delivered "news".

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

View attachment 53813
This is the reaction of "ordinary Russians" to tragedy

"Death to Turkish pigs" " death to turkish pedarasts" "they are punished" "more gpyies will be be dead"

Yes, there are people like that. But at the same time, Russia is sending 100 specialists to Türkiye to HELP. Now tell me, what's more imortant. The opinion of bottom feeders or ACTUAL help?

 

[MaciekRS]

Yes, there are people like that. But at the same time, Russia is sending 100 specialists to Türkiye to HELP. Now tell me, what's more imortant. The opinion of bottom feeders or ACTUAL help?

You mean Ukraine is sending rescuers.

Ukraine says sending 87 rescuers to Turkey after earthquake

Ukraine said Tuesday that it would send a team of several dozen rescue workers to Turkey after an earthquake left thousands dead there and in neighboring

english.alarabiya.net

https://censor.net/en/news/3398180/ukraine_will_send_dozens_of_rescuers_to_turkey_foreign_ministry

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

You mean Ukraine is sending rescuers.

Ukraine says sending 87 rescuers to Turkey after earthquake

Ukraine said Tuesday that it would send a team of several dozen rescue workers to Turkey after an earthquake left thousands dead there and in neighboring

english.alarabiya.net

https://censor.net/en/news/3398180/ukraine_will_send_dozens_of_rescuers_to_turkey_foreign_ministry

Both are sending. And I'm grateful for that.

 

[UkroTurk]

Yes, there are people like that. But at the same time, Russia is sending 100 specialists to Türkiye to HELP. Now tell me, what's more imortant. The opinion of bottom feeders or ACTUAL help?

Please remember, Russian Air force or Ukrainian Air Force bombed and killed 35 Turkish soldiers?


There is a significant difference between two countries towards Türkiye.

 

[Angry Turk !!!]

Please remember, Russian Air force or Ukrainian Air Force bombed and killed 35 Turkish soldiers?


There is a significant difference between two countries towards Türkiye.

I will never forget what happend to our soldiers back then. But we have to look forward. Türkiye needs help right now and fortunately we get it thanks to all those Nations.

 

[Relic]

Russia is paying an enormous price as they advance in the East.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622946895420088322

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623071883988987905

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622990039079682048

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622851133696770049

 

[blackjack]

Prediction for amor that will arrive in Ukraine before the fall of 2023, beginning with what has been announced thus far in 2022.

Main Battle Tanks
- 62 M1A2 (USA)
- 80-100 Leopard 1 (German industry)
- 80-100 Leopard 2 (Europe + Canada)
- 150-200 T-72 (Czech Republic + Poland + Morocco)
- 80-100 PT-91 (Poland)
- 14 Challenger 2 (Britain)

Tank Destroyers
- 40-60 AMX10-RC (France)

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
- 200 Bradley M2 (USA)
- 60-80 CV90 (Europe)
- 60-80 Marder (Germany)
- 60-80 BMP-1 and BMP-2 (Europe)

Armoured Personnel Carriers
- 180-200 Stryker (USA)
- 150-200 Bulldog (Britain)
- 100-200 M113s (USA + Europe)
- 150 Kirpi (Turkey)
- 40-50 VAB (France)
- 50 Dingo (Germany)
- 30 Bushmaster (Australia)
- 250-300 Maxxpro and Cougar (USA)

Infantry Mobility Vehicles
- 300-400 HMMWVs (USA + Europe)
- 200 Roshel Senators (Canada)
- 40-50 Bastion (France)
- 100-150 Iveco LMVs (Europe)

Artillery (towed and self propelled)
- 30-50 L118 and L119, 105mm towed howitzers (USA +Europe)
- 20-30 D-30, 122mm towed howitzers (Estonia + Europe)
- 40-50 FH-70, 155mm towed howitzers (Estonia + Europe)
- 19 CAESAR, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Denmark)
- 36 M109A6 Paladin, 155mm self propelled howitzers (USA)
- 20-30 M109, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Europe)
- 30 AS-90, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Britain)
- 12 Archer, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Sweden)
- 10-15 Dana M2, 122mm self propelled howitzers (Czech Republic) - part of a batch ordered in 2022.
- 10-15 Zuzana 2, 155m self propelled howitzers (Slovakia)- Part of a batch ordered in 2022.
- 10-15 Krab, 155mm self propelled howitzers (Poland)- Part of a batch ordered in 2022.

I'm sure I missed some things, but I think this will be the core of the armor and artillery that will arrive in Ukraine between January 1st, 2022 and August 31st, 2022.

dont forget this.

NATO claims to be the Yosemite Sam of alliances but the war in Ukraine is showing what it really is.

1. A bunch of small countries. Their armies number 2,000 but, taking wokeness, diversity, recruiting shortfalls, pregnancy leave and physical fitness into account, they can field 600. They possess 100 major weapons but, taking incompetent storage, broken parts and maintenance problems into account, they can field 40 of them
2. A bunch of medium-size countries. Their armies number 20,000 but, taking wokeness, diversity, recruiting shortfalls, pregnancy leave and physical fitness into account, they can field 6,000. They possess 500 major weapons but, taking incompetent storage, broken parts and maintenance problems into account, they can field 200 of them.
3. One big country. Its army numbers 200,000 but, taking wokeness, diversity, recruiting shortfalls, pregnancy leave and physical fitness into account, it can field 60,000. (Given the enormous number of bases that have to be manned, probably not). It possesses 5,000 major weapons but, taking incompetent storage, broken parts and maintenance problems into account, it can field 2,000 of them. (And this stuff is scattered all over the place). Some of its rulers want to fight Russia, some want to fight Germany and some want to fight China – but they’re sure they can do all three at once.
4. Nobody has more than a month or two of ammunition and, actually, a lot less than that because they’ve give so much to Ukraine and it’s all gone. Somewhere.
5. All this costs more than you can imagine.
6. These countries’ GDPs are the sum of lawyers’ fees, financial flim-flam, fake numbers, real estate commissions, payoffs to politicians and non-stop printing presses. The only one of them that actually makes anything is going bust.
7. “Look on my works, ye Mighty, and despair!”

By Helmholtz Smith

This is why Turkey is distancing itself from the west.

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622667824597540890

I think Poland doesnt want to be a globohomo puppet but save themselves to be a part of Russia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622849346667442176

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622911960722337794

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622921096503648257

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622924028947099648

 

[Nykyus]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622719688860991492

I'm saying it again. Especially Turks and Muslims, be careful who you support.

At the moment, the goals of Israel, Azerbaijan and Turkey coincide. The Israelis recently attacked Iran with drones.
Russian fascists have always opposed the Jews, even before the creation of the State of Israel. They staged pogroms in Tsarist Russia from the end of the XIX century, that is, they killed all Jews, including babies. The Russian fascists accused the Jews of the fact that the Jewish communists unleashed the Civil War in Russia in 1917-1922 and killed many Russians, that the Jewish communists created many autonomous and union republics on the site of the Russian Empire, which led to the collapse of Russia.
As for the religious solidarity of the Arabs with the Turks. Were there many Arab protests against China in support of the Uyghurs? Zero in my opinion.

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622934691270561792

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622937485675229184

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622944314870431744

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622951373355581440

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622976447513038849

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622990419716890625

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622993020114149378

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623015366560518161

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623020892233035778

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623069166642032655

 

[blackjack]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623081762652921857

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622976691210711042

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1623074601277292544

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622962742775713796

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1622740168116514816

 

[Nykyus]

Yesterday I watched an interview with an Israeli army officer fighting on the side of Ukraine. He was born in Bukhara in Uzbekistan, then moved to Israel as a child, then served in the Israeli army for 14 years. Participated in the Lebanese war-2.
He says that he already foresaw a Russian attack on Ukraine, although his wife did not believe him. Feels no remorse when he kills Russian soldiers. Participates in sabotage actions against Russia, lays mines or participates in raids. He says he is ready to die for Ukraine. For him, it is very regrettable that Russia is killing civilians. When they fought in Lebanon, they never killed a single civilian. He says that the majority of Israelis are opposed to Russia.

 

[blackjack]

Yesterday I watched an interview with an Israeli army officer fighting on the side of Ukraine. He was born in Bukhara in Uzbekistan, then moved to Israel as a child, then served in the Israeli army for 14 years. Participated in the Lebanese war-2.
He says that he already foresaw a Russian attack on Ukraine, although his wife did not believe him. Feels no remorse when he kills Russian soldiers. Participates in sabotage actions against Russia, lays mines or participates in raids. He says he is ready to die for Ukraine. For him, it is very regrettable that Russia is killing civilians. When they fought in Lebanon, they never killed a single civilian. He says that the majority of Israelis are opposed to Russia.

what a crazy timeline we live in to see neo-Nazis as heroes, hell even the west entirely ignores what the zionist regime does to middle eastern neighbors. I guess it sucks Ukraine won't be Zelensky's greater Israel.

I am surprised BBC has not taken this video down yet.