Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[contricusc]

I don't disagree that collectively the West could afford it. I've made the point on numerous occasions that if the West treated Russia as the existential threat that they treated Covid-19, the war would already be over. Collectively, we spent trillions navigating that time period. The problem is that governments won't do things that the people oppose and Western European folks, Britains, Americans, Canadians, etc are not going to take kindly to the idea of Ukrainians getting 5 figure and 6 figure signing bonuses using Western money, while many are struggling at home.

That’s exactly where my problem is with the West. It’s insanity that a nonsense like Covid was considered an existential threat, while a war with Russia is seen as a non-issue.

If you can spend one trillion dollars for a coronavirus, you should have no problem spending 5 trillion dollars for a war with Russia.

And it is also disgusting that Western people would rather see Ukrainian men being used as slaves, than to be paid. Is this how low the moral values of the Western people have fallen?

And if people in the West think that it is such a great deal to enroll in the Ukrainianm army (because of the high sign up bonus we discussed), they should be free to do it. Ukraine should be conditioned to accept foreign fighters from Western countries in exchange for the money to pay the soldiers. This way, you can’t complain about how well the Ukrainians are having it, as you can join them if you think they have a great deal.

In reality, the biggest problem is that many people in the West love Russia and Putin and have no moral values. This is why they oppose help for Ukraine. It’s not as if 0.3% of GDP would affect anyone in any way. Nobody would feel the cost. They oppose it because deep inside they want Putin to win, but are ashamed to say it.

 

[contricusc]

Since you are so obsessed with funding the war and how poor ukranians should have more money and wages etc etc I have a wonderful suggestion for you.

How about you send half of your monthly wage to Ukraine every month, that should help them and you can live happily knowing that you actually did something not just talk about it on an online forum.

I’m takking about spending 0.3% of GDP, and you suggest giving 50% of my wage? Are you out of your mind?

Giving 0.3% of GDP doesn’t affect you at all, it is not the same as giving 50% of your earnings. Even credit card fees when you pay with your Visa are higher than 0.3%.

I’m advocating for a collective effort that would not be felt by anyone, and would win us the war. In response, you tell me to give half of my earnings which would be meaningless for the war effort. Try to use your logic.

 

[Bosniak Revival]

Ukraine must not & should never draft 18 to 24 year old's unless they are on the brink of annihallation & Russian troops are marching on to Lviv

What some people don't understand is that times have changed. Europe wide birth rates are lower than they have ever been.

In the 1960s a western country could mobilise it's young as there were still many new kids being born. This is not the case anymore. Russia has the same issue & full mobilization of their young is also presents a problem for the Kremlin as well.

Ukraine needs it's 18 to 24 year olds to build a new generation of Ukrainains post war or ceasefire or whatever.

 

[Spitfire9]

In reality, the biggest problem is that many people in the West love Russia and Putin and have no moral values. This is why they oppose help for Ukraine. It’s not as if 0.3% of GDP would affect anyone in any way. Nobody would feel the cost. They oppose it because deep inside they want Putin to win, but are ashamed to say it.

How many people in the West love Russia and want it to 'win' in Ukraine?

 

[Relic]

That’s exactly where my problem is with the West. It’s insanity that a nonsense like Covid was considered an existential threat, while a war with Russia is seen as a non-issue.

If you can spend one trillion dollars for a coronavirus, you should have no problem spending 5 trillion dollars for a war with Russia.

And it is also disgusting that Western people would rather see Ukrainian men being used as slaves, than to be paid. Is this how low the moral values of the Western people have fallen?

And if people in the West think that it is such a great deal to enroll in the Ukrainianm army (because of the high sign up bonus we discussed), they should be free to do it. Ukraine should be conditioned to accept foreign fighters from Western countries in exchange for the money to pay the soldiers. This way, you can’t complain about how well the Ukrainians are having it, as you can join them if you think they have a great deal.

In reality, the biggest problem is that many people in the West love Russia and Putin and have no moral values. This is why they oppose help for Ukraine. It’s not as if 0.3% of GDP would affect anyone in any way. Nobody would feel the cost. They oppose it because deep inside they want Putin to win, but are ashamed to say it.

I actually think the biggest issue at hand is that most people want their tax money predominently spent on their own needs and coming out of Covid-19, with as high as inflation has been in the collective West, people are having their standard of living noticeably affected by the rising the cost of everything from food, to energy and housing. As a result, people want their governements running large defecits to provide handouts that amount to immediate financial relief.

Now, that issue might seem very small in comparison to Ukrainians losing their lives and having their country invaded, but you and I both know that the average person doesn't easily relate to something happening thousands of miles away, that doesn't directly impact them. Especially if you live in a Western country and a major war hasn't affected you at home in more than a generation.

I don't think as many people love Russia as you think. Sure some people relate to and prefer the Autocratic / Kleptocratic nature of Russia, but it's certainly a minority of people. Rather, I simply don't think the people of the West have a history of dealing with the Russians the way that the people of Eastern Europe do. As a result, the many in the West don't understand that Russia is actually an an impoverished shithole for a huge part of the population. Nor do they realize that it's a country effectively ran by organized crime.

I think it's more about ignorance and naiivity than I do stupidity and malice when we're talking about Westerners.

 

[Relic]

Ukraine must not & should never draft 18 to 24 year old's unless they are on the brink of annihallation & Russian troops are marching on to Lviv

What some people don't understand is that times have changed. Europe wide birth rates are lower than they have ever been.

In the 1960s a western country could mobilise it's young as there were still many new kids being born. This is not the case anymore. Russia has the same issue & full mobilization of their young is also presents a problem for the Kremlin as well.

Ukraine needs it's 18 to 24 year olds to build a new generation of Ukrainains post war or ceasefire or whatever.

I'm empathetic to this point. But they then have to find a better strategy to incentivize another 250,000-300,000 men (and women where applicable) age 25-60 to sign up and to be willing combatants. That's likely how many people they'll need (in a short period of time) to stabilize the front and force Russia to the negotiating table, without having to concede an enormous amount to end the war.

That means they'll have to convince the West to pay the costs associated with incentivizing people to take on that level of danger. Alternatively (and possibly simultaneously) they're going to have to find ways to attract tens of thousands of foreigners to Ukraine to fight as mercenaries, and that's going to be even more expensive given the danger at the front. And with foreigners comes the issue of inoperability and quality of training.

For the record, there are other creative ways to help solve the issue. For example, you can encourage volunteers under the age of 25 to sign up for elements of the military that work in the rear and who are subject to far less danger. The Air Force, for example, needs all kinds of pilots, technicians, support staff, etc that will largely operate in areas West of Kyiv. This, coupled with reasonably enticing signing bonuses might get you part of the way there, allowing older people to fill more of the front line roles.

 

[Huelague]

How many people in the West love Russia and want it to 'win' in Ukraine?

Nobody wants Russia to win. They want West to lose.

 

[contricusc]

How many people in the West love Russia and want it to 'win' in Ukraine?

I think that in countries like Hungary, Austria or Switzerland, they could be the majority. And not necessary because they love Russia, but because they like Putin and they hate the EU, NATO and the US (Except for Trump, which they adore).

Even in my country, which borders Ukraine and is in direct danger if Russia wins, at least 30% of the population secretly supports Russia, because they hate the US, democracy, the EU and the West and they love dictators. They are ashamed to admit it, but this is what they feel deep down in their hearts. This is why a Putinist semi-retarded psycho won the first round of the presidential election, despite not even appearing in the mainstream media.

 

[contricusc]

I actually think the biggest issue at hand is that most people want their tax money predominently spent on their own needs and coming out of Covid-19, with as high as inflation has been in the collective West, people are having their standard of living noticeably affected by the rising the cost of everything from food, to energy and housing. As a result, people want their governements running large defecits to provide handouts that amount to immediate financial relief.

Yes, the big problem is that people have zero understanding of economics and numbers, and fall very easily for populist slogans from politicians. In the grand scheme of things, helping Ukraine is not very expensive, and it is spending that doesn’t cause inflation. On the other hand, what they want (handouts) is just a way to keep the inflationary spiral going, and it is basically a waste of money that can have more negative than positive effects.

I don't think as many people love Russia as you think. Sure some people relate to and prefer the Autocratic / Kleptocratic nature of Russia, but it's certainly a minority of people. Rather, I simply don't think the people of the West have a history of dealing with the Russians the way that the people of Eastern Europe do. As a result, the many in the West don't understand that Russia is actually an an impoverished shithole for a huge part of the population. Nor do they realize that it's a country effectively ran by organized crime.

Unfortunately I know many people who fall for Putin’s propaganda and have a very high opinion about him, while hating everything EU-related. Many Europeans believe Putin is some sort of defender of Christianity and the EU and NATO represent the WEF. They think Russia is some sort of white people’s paradise with no crime, submissive traditional housewives and no immigrants or brown people. They have no idea what Russia really is, and what a charlatan Putin is.

I think it's more about ignorance and naiivity than I do stupidity and malice when we're talking about Westerners.

Ignorance and naivety go hand in hand with stupidity, and can easily breed malice.

 

[FiReFTW]

I think that in countries like Hungary, Austria or Switzerland, they could be the majority. And not necessary because they love Russia, but because they like Putin and they hate the EU, NATO and the US (Except for Trump, which they adore).

Even in my country, which borders Ukraine and is in direct danger if Russia wins, at least 30% of the population secretly supports Russia, because they hate the US, democracy, the EU and the West and they love dictators. They are ashamed to admit it, but this is what they feel deep down in their hearts. This is why a Putinist semi-retarded psycho won the first round of the presidential election, despite not even appearing in the mainstream media.

I know a ton of people from over 10 countries in Europe, I travel alot and even stay in many countries for long time so I have many friends all over.
Nobody cares at all about Putin, but nobody cares about Ukraine also, it's not our war and we won't send our money to fund it.
It's not about loving or hating someone it's about MY money and the fact that I want that money spent on things that MATTER TO ME.

DO YOU HAVE ANY IDEA how many conflicts and situations like famine are all over the world? If I would give 0.3% of my money for all that I would be broke, so why should I give it to Ukraine?

It's actually beyond crazy to me how some people are so convinced that people from Europe should send money to Ukraine and not doing so makes them bad people, just crazy.

 

[carlitob]

I guess i just see things very differently, and care just as much about human beings living on the other side of the world, as i do those living in the next town over.

If the world goes to shit, it will directly impact me or my family somehow, so i cant just not care what happens outside of my own country.

Your type of thinking doesnt make you a 'bad' person in my eyes, i'm just of the mind that the human race is kinda doomed if everyone saw things the way you do

 

[FiReFTW]

I guess i just see things very differently, and care just as much about human beings living on the other side of the world, as i do those living in the next town over.

If the world goes to shit, it will directly impact me or my family somehow, so i cant just not care what happens outside of my own country.

Your type of thinking doesnt make you a 'bad' person in my eyes, i'm just of the mind that the human race is kinda doomed if everyone saw things the way you do

There are a ton of conflicts and wars all over the world and tons of situations and crisis as I said before, its not about not caring its about knowing that you are powerless to change that, and you certainly can't do anything to help in any way or form because even if you gave pocket change to every single crisis and situation and war all over the world separately it would amount to probably 10 times your monthly salary, so you just have to accept that you can't do anything about it.

But then some people completely ignore all those conflicts and crisis and wars and situations all over the world because seemingly the only crisis that exist in this whole world is the Ukraine war and apparently you should be willing and able to help in any way possible, because this is the only thing that matters in the world.

I just can't support such hypocrisy.

Then there is also the other side which is way of thinking. I am against war and death and people suffering and I want the war in Ukraine to end as fast as possible, well newsflash the more guns and tanks and weapons "the world" sends to Ukraine the longer the war will go on and the more Ukrainans will die, so I guess you don't care much about Ukrainans then if you support sending weapons and weapons, you don't care of 100.000 more die or 1.000.000 more die etc...

I was never for people who support wars and death, I was always against wars and peace and negotiations in every single war or conflict.

But too many people have alterior motives, they care only about killing as much Russians as possible they don't actually care about Ukranian people dying... 99% of them probably never even saw war and how brutal and horrible it actually is.

People on this forum say alot but I see alot of hypocrisy from many people here.

 

[Soldier30]

While many in Russia and Ukraine are developing interceptor drones and equipping them with nets or various weapons, Russian military personnel have demonstrated a fairly simple solution to combat drones in Ukraine. An ordinary stick was installed on an FPV drone, the FPV drone flies up to the enemy drone and rams it, or damages the propeller-motor part of the drone. This method is used mainly against large drones. The video was filmed in Ukraine, the location of the filming and the type of drone used are not reported.

 

[contricusc]

Nobody cares at all about Putin, but nobody cares about Ukraine also, it's not our war and we won't send our money to fund it.

That’s the big problem. You think this is not your war and it doesn’t matter to you, but the reality is that the outcome of this war will have grave consequences for the future of Europe.

For Europeans, this is not a random war happening on a differnt continent between regional actors. This is a war between a European country and the biggest threat to Europeans security and sovereignity. If we allow a European country to fall, it will set a very dangerous precedent, that Europe can be invaded and it won’t defend itself.

One by one, no European country can fight Russia, because of the sheer numbers of people and weapons the Russians have. If Europeans don’t fight as a united front and remain divided, because “this is not my war”, Russia could conquer European countries one by one until they reach France (which has nuclear weapons).

What happens in a war in DR Congo, Yemen, Myanmar or Somalia doesn’t have major implication for Europe, so you can ignore such conflicts, but the war in Ukraine is different. This is basically a war between the European Union and the Soviet Union.

Will Ukraine be part of the EU, or will it go back to the modern Soviet Union?

Ukraine wants with the EU. If we are unable to help them defend themsleves, it means the EU can’t defend itself when an EU country will be in the same situation.

 

[Spitfire9]

That’s the big problem. You think this is not your war and it doesn’t matter to you, but the reality is that the outcome of this war will have grave consequences for the future of Europe.

For Europeans, this is not a random war happening on a differnt continent between regional actors. This is a war between a European country and the biggest threat to Europeans security and sovereignity. If we allow a European country to fall, it will set a very dangerous precedent, that Europe can be invaded and it won’t defend itself.

One by one, no European country can fight Russia, because of the sheer numbers of people and weapons the Russians have. If Europeans don’t fight as a united front and remain divided, because “this is not my war”, Russia could conquer European countries one by one until they reach France (which has nuclear weapons).

What happens in a war in DR Congo, Yemen, Myanmar or Somalia doesn’t have major implication for Europe, so you can ignore such conflicts, but the war in Ukraine is different. This is basically a war between the European Union and the Soviet Union.

Will Ukraine be part of the EU, or will it go back to the modern Soviet Union?

Ukraine wants with the EU. If we are unable to help them defend themsleves, it means the EU can’t defend itself when an EU country will be in the same situation.

The cost of the invasion of Ukraine to the world must have amounted to trillions of dollars, given the widespread inflation in food and energy it precipitated and the physical damage caused to both Russia and Ukraine.

Apart from supplying weapons Europe, North America and other countries have also spent heavily in direct financial support of the Ukrainian government. Russia has paid heavily, too, for weapons and personnel used in the conflict and the damage it has caused to its economy.

Russia is an expansionist country with designs on retrieving control of the states once part of the defunct USSR. It is not unlikely that Russia will look to occupy further countries if it is not brought to a state of lasting financial and economic weakness. Continuation of support for Ukraine should enable Russia to do this to itself by continuing its special military operation, so minimising the risk of a repeat performance in the not so distant future.

Aware of it or not, the citizens of every country in which food is eaten and fossil fuel is used have been adversely affected by Russia's aggression.

 

[Spitfire9]

Treasury Intensifies Sanctions Against Russia by Targeting Russia’s Oil Production and Exports

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777

This could really present problems for Russia.

November 2024 wealth fund held about $128 billion
December 2024 wealth fund held about $116 billion ($12 billion less in a month)
At that rate of reduction, the fund would be empty before end 2025

But Russia proposes to spend more on the war in 2025 than it did in 2024
Russia's crude oil and oil products export revenues were $192 billion in 2024 (about $16 billion a month)
With the new sanctions, crude oil and oil products export revenues should fall from 2024 levels

The numbers don't add up for Russia. It was on track to run out of money to pay for the war end 2025ish at last year's expenditure levels. This year expenditure on the war is planned to be higher while oil revenues are expected to be lower.

Russia runs out of money to continue the war mid-2025? I hope so. Then it can spend the next few years trying to cope with the acute inflation, business bankruptcy et al that its leader has generously inflicted on his country and its people.

Russia's National Wealth Fund reserves down $11.7B

Ratio of fund reserves to Russian GDP at 6.2% - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russias-oil-exports-fell-2024-revenue-rose-38-billion-iea-says-2025-01-15/

 

[Relic]

https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/jy2777

This could really present problems for Russia.

November 2024 wealth fund held about $128 billion
December 2024 wealth fund held about $116 billion ($12 billion less in a month)
At that rate of reduction, the fund would be empty before end 2025

But Russia proposes to spend more on the war in 2025 than it did in 2024
Russia's crude oil and oil products export revenues were $192 billion in 2024 (about $16 billion a month)
With the new sanctions, crude oil and oil products export revenues should fall from 2024 levels

The numbers don't add up for Russia. It was on track to run out of money to pay for the war end 2025ish at last year's expenditure levels. This year expenditure on the war is planned to be higher while oil revenues are expected to be lower.

Russia runs out of money to continue the war mid-2025? I hope so. Then it can spend the next few years trying to cope with the acute inflation, business bankruptcy et al that its leader has generously inflicted on his country and its people.

Russia's National Wealth Fund reserves down $11.7B

Ratio of fund reserves to Russian GDP at 6.2% - Anadolu Ajansı

www.aa.com.tr

https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/russias-oil-exports-fell-2024-revenue-rose-38-billion-iea-says-2025-01-15/

I doubt Russia will run out of money to fund the war in the next year or two, because their government is all in on it being at least partially successful so that they can justify the enormous casualty rates to their population.

That said, they're going to have to take on significant measures to keep funding the war beyond the back half of 2025. They're not raising even close to the amount of money they need when they participate in bond sales to their banks, even when they're offering 16-19% interest rates.

Russia is going to really be left with 3 choices to pay the bills if the war continues through the back half of this year... And mostly likely they'll mix all three strategies, none of which are good for the population.

1. They'll print significant amounts of money to pay the bills, Leading to substantial inflation in Russia, which will hurt their already impoverished population substantially.

2. They'll raise taxes meaningfully, which will again hurt their impoverished population and cause significant angst among the Russian public.

3. They'll cancel planned domestic spending projects such as infrastructure upgrades and redirect those funds to the war effort. That will serve to hurt their populous over the long run.

Inevitably, the war will be exceptionally costly for the Russian people and that doesn't stop at the war casualties they're facing.

 

[Bosniak Revival]

Yes, the big problem is that people have zero understanding of economics and numbers, and fall very easily for populist slogans from politicians. In the grand scheme of things, helping Ukraine is not very expensive, and it is spending that doesn’t cause inflation. On the other hand, what they want (handouts) is just a way to keep the inflationary spiral going, and it is basically a waste of money that can have more negative than positive effects.



Unfortunately I know many people who fall for Putin’s propaganda and have a very high opinion about him, while hating everything EU-related. Many Europeans believe Putin is some sort of defender of Christianity and the EU and NATO represent the WEF. They think Russia is some sort of white people’s paradise with no crime, submissive traditional housewives and no immigrants or brown people. They have no idea what Russia really is, and what a charlatan Putin

It's really insane how many Westerners beleive that Russia is based & "traditional"

ROC is just a tool of the Kremlin & former KGB agents. I know Russians. Been around them from London to Antalya. These people do not care about tradition at all and queit frankly many of who that I met seemed "degenerate".

Now I did not ask if they were pro Putin or anti-Putin at the time but nothing about their behaviour was trad.

Funny thing is the EU has the most god fearing Christian country in Europe - Romania.

Also Romania, Bulgaria & Poland are more Christian & traditional than Russia is. Westerners are just easy to dupe with lies imo

 

[Spitfire9]

I doubt Russia will run out of money to fund the war in the next year or two, because their government is all in on it being at least partially successful so that they can justify the enormous casualty rates to their population.

That said, they're going to have to take on significant measures to keep funding the war beyond the back half of 2025. They're not raising even close to the amount of money they need when they participate in bond sales to their banks, even when they're offering 16-19% interest rates.

Russia is going to really be left with 3 choices to pay the bills if the war continues through the back half of this year... And mostly likely they'll mix all three strategies, none of which are good for the population.

1. They'll print significant amounts of money to pay the bills, Leading to substantial inflation in Russia, which will hurt their already impoverished population substantially.

2. They'll raise taxes meaningfully, which will again hurt their impoverished population and cause significant angst among the Russian public.

3. They'll cancel planned domestic spending projects such as infrastructure upgrades and redirect those funds to the war effort. That will serve to hurt their populous over the long run.

Inevitably, the war will be exceptionally costly for the Russian people and that doesn't stop at the war casualties they're facing.

Normally to raise funds a government can go to the IMF or World Bank for a loan. Not possible for Russia.

Normally to raise funds a government can sell bonds. Not possible/practical for Russia. I think. What effective interest rate would be required for buyers to be found?

Agreed, printing money would lead to even higher inflation. Throwing existing money at everyone involved in the war resulted in no more consumable goods being produced (probably less, I guess) but consumers having more money to spend. Inflationary.

Raising taxes on consumers handed all this money by the government (sign up payments for soldiers, excessively high salaries for soldiers, death/injury compensation payments, inflated salaries in general due to labour shortage) would be an idea. Non-war related business is seeing reduced profits, so the tax available from company profits should be falling.

I suspect that large amounts of money intended for maintaining the national infrastructure (roads, railways, hospitals, schools etc) will have already been diverted to financing the war. For example, I recall reports of funds intended for maintenance/improvement of infrastructure of towns in Siberia being diverted to rebuilding Mariopol in Ukraine.

The position is absurd: the government's actions increase inflation while the central bank is acting to decrease inflation. Business is being badly hit with many predicted to be forced into bankruptcy by the 21% base rate. Of course, banks lend at a higher rate than base rate. If a business borrowed at 8% base rate + 5% in 2023 (13% interest total) it would now be paying 21% + 5% (26% interest total) on those borrowings. That could bring a lot of businesses down.

I do not see how Russia will be able to pay soldiers and all other people employed by the state, arms manufacturers and other companies supplying the state with goods and services when the wealth fund runs dry, I think probably in the next few months.

The rumour that deposits in citizens' bank accounts may soon be frozen seems less and less implausible to me.

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of the strike of Russian FAB-500 aerial bombs equipped with planning and correction modules (UMPK) on the bridge over the Volchya River near the settlement of Konstantinopol, west of the city of Kurakhovo. Technical information about the FAB-500 bombs is in the link to the video in the comments to the video. The strike was carried out by a Russian Su-34 frontline fighter-bomber. The bridge was used by the Ukrainian army to supply its units. Judging by the video, the bridge was seriously damaged, but did not collapse.