US growth slows to just 2% as Delta hits economy

[xizhimen]

US growth slows to just 2% as Delta hits economy​

By Daniel Thomas
Business reporter, New York
Oct.29 2021
US economic growth slowed sharply in the third quarter of the year, as the fast-spreading Delta variant of coronavirus dampened consumer spending.
The economy expanded at an annualised rate of just 2% in the three months to September - down from 6.7% in the previous quarter.

It came as the US faced supply chain issues, rising inflation and new Covid restrictions in some places.
But infection rates are falling and some experts think growth will pick up.

On a non-annualised basis, the growth figure was 0.5%.
During the third quarter, the Commerce Department said, a "resurgence of Covid-19 cases resulted in new restrictions and delays in the reopening of establishments in some parts of the country".

Pandemic-era loans to businesses, grants to state and local governments, and social benefits to households all decreased, it added.

Among other things, sales of big-ticket manufactured goods fell by 26% during the period. In particular, sales of new cars fell sharply, as prices shot up amid a shortage of semiconductors.
At the same time, growth in the US services sector decelerated to 7.9%, as consumers spent less on eating out and staying in hotels.

The US economy contracted sharply in 2020 as the pandemic hit, but it roared back in the first half of this year. Since then, the recovery has cooled because of a surge in Delta infections aggravated by lacklustre vaccination rates.

The US added a disappointing 194,000 jobs in September, as the Delta variant of coronavirus continued to drag on the economy. Economists had expected it to add nearer its 2021 monthly average of 500,000.

Inflation, meanwhile, hit 5.4% in September, with global supply chains struggling to meet soaring consumer demand as the economy reopened.

'Risk has risen'​

The Federal Reserve has argued the high prices will be transitory and has no immediate plans to raise interest rates to cool things down. However, it does expect to begin paring back its pandemic-era stimulus for the economy later this year, which some fear may be too soon.

Richard Flynn, managing director at Charles Schwab UK, said: "Today's disappointing GDP data will increase investor concerns about strength of the US economy.

"Risk has undoubtedly risen for investors, as there are now more questions - including about fiscal and monetary policy - than there are answers."

However, Willem Sels, chief investment officer of Global Private Banking and Wealth at HSBC, said he expected the slowdown to be temporary.
"As companies rebuild their very low inventories, demand should remain strong, and activity should eventually pick up," he added.

"We also think consumption will rebound when consumers grow more confident, especially as many households have managed to save more during the lockdown and may want to spend ahead of the holiday season."

US growth slows to just 2% as Delta hits economy

The US economy slowed sharply in the third quarter as the Delta variant of Covid continued to spread.

www.bbc.com

 

[xizhimen]

US puts all their effort in attempts to stop or at least to slow down China's development and growth instead of trying to build up its own. It's a wrong path.

 

[Gary]

The US just add $432B in economy in 3 months (Q3)

Current-dollar GDP increased 7.8 percent at an annual rate, or $432.5 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $23.17 trillion. In the second quarter, GDP increased 13.4 percent, or $702.8 billion (table 1 and table 3). More information on the source data that underlie the estimates is available in the Key Source Data and Assumptions file on BEA's website.

Gross Domestic Product, Third Quarter 2021 (Advance Estimate) | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2021 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 6.7 percent. The GDP estimate released today is based on...

www.bea.gov

Now its GDP is at $23.1T and this is even without the planned stimulus by Biden

 

[Gary]

If this is correct we could see a $24T+ US GDP by the end of the year. Quite a jump from last year $20T GDP.

That would mean a considerable acceleration of GDP in the fourth quarter followed by a 2022 that would start to resemble the pre-pandemic U.S. economy. Jefferies economists, for instance, see the third quarter coming in at a 3.8% growth rate before giving way to an 8% burst to end 2021.​

​

The picture won't be pretty for third-quarter economic growth, but it should get better

When the Commerce Department releases its GDP estimate, it likely will show an increase of just 2.8%.

www.cnbc.com

 

[xizhimen]

今年前三季度，中国GDP增量已经高达2.38万亿美元，中美两国前三季度经济规模已经缩小了9500亿美元左右。
in the first three quarters of this year, China’s GDP growth has reached US$2.38 trillion, and the economies of China and the United States have shrunk by about US$950 billion in the first three quarters.

It's expected that China's GDP will account for over 80% of that of US by the end of this year, the overtaking would happen around 2028.

 

[Gary]

Talking about Q3 , China has actually dive into a free fall of just 4.9% growth, down from 7.8% in Q2 and 18% in Q1.

China GDP disappoints, third-quarter growth slows to 4.9%

China's third-quarter GDP grew a disappointing 4.9% as industrial activity rose less than expected in September.

www.google.com

 

[xizhimen]

Talking about Q3 , China has actually dive into a free fall of just 4.9% growth, down from 7.8% in Q2 and 18% in Q1.

China GDP disappoints, third-quarter growth slows to 4.9%

China's third-quarter GDP grew a disappointing 4.9% as industrial activity rose less than expected in September.

www.google.com

US's growth is 2% now, China's 4.9% is still much better than 2%. China's growth rate in Q3 was only 0.1 point lower than the expected, you can this a "free fall", then what do you call this US drop?

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

Talking about Q3 , China has actually dive into a free fall of just 4.9% growth, down from 7.8% in Q2 and 18% in Q1.

China GDP disappoints, third-quarter growth slows to 4.9%

China's third-quarter GDP grew a disappointing 4.9% as industrial activity rose less than expected in September.

www.google.com

CN only can manufacture unimportant products where everyone can manufacture the same (Phone without chips, car without chips, shoes, PPE etc ). No surprise when more and more factories reduce or quit manufacturing in CN and move to another countries to avoid 25% tariff and high labor cost.

-----------------------------

LG CNS has moved GDCs from China to Vietnam as manufacturing plants move production locations.

Vietnam Economy Thread

Can Vietnam beat China to become the "manufactory of the world"? 12-10-2021 - 08:38 AM Vietnam is considered as one of the fastest growing economies, the most impressive among emerging economies in Asia. So what is the opportunity for Vietnam to replace China to become a "new global factory"...

defencehub.live

 

[xizhimen]

CN only can manufacture unimportant products where everyone can manufacture the same (Phone without chips, car without chips, shoes, PPE etc ).

Ok, then let "everyone‘’ do, come back and tell me when it happens.

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

Ok, then let "everyone‘’ do, come back and tell me when it happens.

I said many times already Its happening, and CN govt has to force CN bosses to stay in CN instead of moving to VN to avoid 25% tariff and high labor cost.

No one wanna stay in CN now except their products mainly sell for CNese. (iphone, BMW, Tesla)


--------------------------
“But what Trump is doing now is making everyone panic, especially the smaller firms,” Zhou added.

Companies are also fearful of growing hostility from local governments in China, should they announce their plans to relocate. Officials do not want to lose the tax revenue, nor the employment the factories bring to local communities.

“I invested 3 million yuan (US$436,140) with a partner in 2017 to rent a 2,400-square-metre factory in Thu Dau Mot City, in the Binh Duong province of Vietnam, transferring four production queues and recruiting 80 workers there. The rent was already 22 yuan (US$3.20) per square metre and has now gone up to 28 yuan,” Zhou said.

“At that time, the economic atmosphere in China was still very good, and everyone was eager to expand investment. The local government in Dongguan was relatively relaxed and supportive of us relocating production to Vietnam. Now, several friends of mine are planning to move. Their costs will be definitely much higher than they were in 2017. Moreover, the local [Dongguan] government is not as nice as it used to be.”

“Procedures are now strictly enforced by the local government in Dongguan,” Zhou added. “If you do not pay a large compensation package to make up for workers’ social security fees and other taxes, they will not let you move the machinery and equipment.”

Chinese companies moving to Vietnam keep quiet on trade war to avoid wrath of authorities and staff

Chinese state media may have launched a fierce propaganda campaign, placing the blame for the trade war squarely at the feet of the US government. Interviews reveal that many factory owners and operators feel that they are caught in the middle of forceful rhetoric from both sides in the trade...

sg.news.yahoo.com

 

[xizhimen]

I said many times already Its happening,

Then we have nothing to worry about, China's overall economic situation so far is still one of the best in the world.

 

[Viva_vietnamm]

Then we have nothing to worry about, China's overall economic situation so far is still one of the best in the world.

The best with birth rate is the same with Great famine era due to millions CNese can't afford to raise kids like during 60s

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[xizhimen]

The best with birth rate is the same with Great famine era due to millions CNese can't afford to raise kids like during 60s

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View attachment 34645

LOL, You wish, keep dreaming, dreaming is for free.

 

[xizhimen]

GDP is artificially high​

The authors argue that Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the U.S. is artificially high. They say the real GDP is one year behind what economic data suggests.

Unemployment is artificially low​

Record unemployment rates — and a quick recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic — may not tell the entire story. The authors argue that unprecedented government support in terms of unemployment insurance and other economic stimulus has propped up the jobs market, according to the authors.

Is The U.S. Already In A Recession?

Yes, the economy could be as bad as the financial crisis of 2008.

www.forbes.com