War in Afghanistan

Bogeyman 

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Afghanistan 'possible' situation map after US withdrawal. It's also a source map for potential civil war in the country.
 

Agha Sher

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Map is completely wrong. Even the Taliban doesn't claim to hold that much territory.

The US has already withdrawn and they only support with some special forces raid and some airstrikes.
 
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Saithan

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Map is completely wrong. Even the Taliban doesn't claim to hold that much territory.
Thanks for clarifying that. I was really worried for a bit. But the situation in Afghanistan isn't easy. nonstop attacks by Taliban is a problem. I can understand why the US opted to use drones.

I imagine that holding a territory is difficult if you should be fortunate enough to take it from Taliban. But the clean up has to start someplace, and I think it has to be done by neighboring countries. e.g. Pakistan and such, but they have to get rid of the Taliban within their own borders first.


from 2019
 

erickzhengauss

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For Tajikistan and Central Asia, provocations with foreign intervention on the border with Afghanistan can be a very serious test and threaten to turn the region into a real springboard for large-scale armed clashes between China and the United States.
Source
 

Kaptaan

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I imagine that holding a territory is difficult if you should be fortunate enough to take it from Taliban. But the clean up has to start someplace, and I think it has to be done by neighboring countries. e.g. Pakistan
No external force will be able to erase Taliban in Afghanistan. You have to understand that Taliban in Afghanistan is as much a ethic Pakhtun movement as much as it is military or political. Think of IRA in Ulter. Whilst it had understones of historical Catholic versus Protestant rivalry it was more than that. The only differance is in this part of the world religion plays a bigger role so by definition the Taliban are more religious and orthodox in their views but let not any of that hide the blunt fact that it is in fact a Pakhtun nationalist movement dressed in religion.

The point of "not be able to erase" can be seen that after nearly 19 years of US war the Taliban are still standing - indeed standing tall. As you guys know I have little time for Islam but I actually support Taliban because they are a reality and will have to play a role in Afghanistan whether I, you or Americans or anybody else likes it.

If you notice all other parties in Afghanistan are also clustered around ethnic groups and the map makes that clear. Yellow Uzbeks, blue Tajiks, dirty pink Mongol Hazara, green can be taken as Pakhtuns.

Below ethnic map of Afghanistan.

1605607895968.png



And the reason why Pakistan is inexorably tied with Afghanistan with our shared ethnic groups. Whatever happens in Afghanistan always spills in to Pakistan.

1605608070772.png
 

Kaptaan

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The US has already withdrawn and they only support with some special forces raid and some airstrikes.
No, they have not in practice. They still underpin the Kabul regime and provide the backbone and assurance finiancial, military or otherwise. This means if Taliban pull back US support ebbs but if Taliban push hard and start gaining ground US support begins to increase until Taliban are halted. Think of US as a pressure balance machine. This keeps the status quo intact. If all this was removed Kabul would fall within a a year as Kabul regime alliance made up of many warlords who have been bought out would switch sides as they know which direction the wind is blowing.
 

Kaptaan

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Slightly off topic but there is not much underlying differance between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Just like Afghanistan Pakistan would have cracked along ethnic fractures. However because of the British era Pakistan Army and a urban middle class who are products of British rule [although they would violently deny this] make for a blocks that are sufficient to build a crude shape of a modern state.

You can see that in our military or ruling class. Most are products of elite British universities like Oxford or Cambridge like Imran Khan, Bhuttos etc

In fact the British era Aitchison College [similar to British Eton] almost provide most of the top political, administrative class in Pakistan. Other prestigious British era Catholic schools or Grammar schools produce the rest.

The religious rabble leadership that wants jihads, French lynced, women locked up are typically products of traditional madaris. Indeed the Afghan Taliban senior leadrship is also products of the same madaris and thus you see why there is such commonality across the border.

The only real differance is the % of Afghans who are educated in modern western institutions is tiny whereas in Pakistan it is relatively far higher - again a product of the historical British era.
 

Saithan

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Slightly off topic but there is not much underlying differance between Pakistan and Afghanistan. Just like Afghanistan Pakistan would have cracked along ethnic fractures. However because of the British era Pakistan Army and a urban middle class who are products of British rule [although they would violently deny this] make for a blocks that are sufficient to build a crude shape of a modern state.

You can see that in our military or ruling class. Most are products of elite British universities like Oxford or Cambridge like Imran Khan, Bhuttos etc

In fact the British era Aitchison College [similar to British Eton] almost provide most of the top political, administrative class in Pakistan. Other prestigious British era Catholic schools or Grammar schools produce the rest.

The religious rabble leadership that wants jihads, French lynced, women locked up are typically products of traditional madaris. Indeed the Afghan Taliban senior leadrship is also products of the same madaris and thus you see why there is such commonality across the border.

The only real differance is the % of Afghans who are educated in modern western institutions is tiny whereas in Pakistan it is relatively far higher - again a product of the historical British era.

But if the the Afghans in Pakistan are better educated wouldn't they have a more moderate stance on national unity under Pakistan. Especially after looking at how the Taliban is exerting its influence in Afghanistan ?

I really think a Pakistan National school kindergarden to High school is necessary to streamline the education towards one national Identity.

E.g. like how China has done it, or how it was done in Turkey.
 
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