Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Ryder]

Honestly im not surprised that these convicts are fighting hard.

When you have nothing to lose makes you even more deadly.

 

[Mailman]

Within a personal level yes, I myself condemned Russia for this and my past post will confirm such.
But in modern geopolitics, use the same soft heart approach, you die.

What we learned ftom the dawn of WWII- countries alone are vulnerable. Divid et emprea, divide and rule is the tactics well known also for chinese. Nobody will kill Indonesia for being moral and doing right thing, quite the opposite.

You know the world doesn't work that way. Ideally past experience should've direct nations to side with what they could relate. But that is the ideal, and the world rarely if ever is ideal.

To this day in the Middle East there exist a country that were born by methods of land grabbing by relocated Europeans of Europe that suffers persecution under some European despot , yet even with past suffering, the same people today would watch in excitement as they bombed civilian houses, which also is their neighbor. Is this country familiar to you ?

Again whatsaboutism. For you the glass is always half-empty, not half-filled. Yes, Israel is behaving not nicely against Palestinians, Russians are behaving not nice against Ukrainians, Chinese are not behaving nice against Uigurs, Myanmar is not nice against Rohingyas. Should I continue?

I have not claimed we are living in a perfect world rather than we should aim for better one. One can complain about the horroble past or move on and try to build better future. My opponent has chosen a passive agressive complaining mode, I see.

If Indonesia is heartless (I'm only one of roughly 300 million Indonesian btw), then its justifiable, because the world is like that most of the time.

No, it is not. If someone raped your wife, it does not give you the right to rape any other woman. It is still a crime and you would be just another criminal. Simple as that.

Indonesia at the time is not powerful enough and not self sufficient enough to do it alone, so better play the game until we're powerful and sufficient enough. But there's a clear trend for this. Maybe for our hate towards China wrt to our dispute, there's a lot to learn on how to minimize our vulnerabilities.

And what would Indonesia do being powerful and sufficient enough? Attempt to steal some land, perhaps? Colonize another island? Attack Australia? I wonder...

 

[Gary]

Again whatsaboutism. For you the glass is always half-empty, not half-filled. Yes, Israel is behaving not nicely against Palestinians, Russians are behaving not nice against Ukrainians, Chinese are not behaving nice against Uigurs, Myanmar is not nice against Rohingyas. Should I continue?

I pretty much confirm that Russia is evil and so is everybody else. So how is it whatsaboutism when I just acknowledge everything is practically the same? You know, politics, is not for the faint hearted, and war is politics by other means.

I have not claimed we are living in a perfect world rather than we should aim for better one. One can complain about the horroble past or move on and try to build better future. My opponent has chosen a passive agressive complaining mode, I see.

The one I see complaining is you and contriusc, I pretty much calm you guys by noting that this something normal and of the ordinary.

No, it is not. If someone raped your wife, it does not give you the right to rape any other woman.

True rapist are rapist, but I found it funny is one rapist insisting that his rape is not any worse than the other.

And what would Indonesia do being powerful and sufficient enough? Attempt to steal some land, perhaps? Colonize another island? Attack Australia? I wonder...

Perhaps being more resilient to sanctions ? We never know when the next package of sanctions will came, Its a completely different thing if the US sanctions Indonesia with that the US sanctioning powerful self sufficient countries like China.
The goal is to be self sufficient, while not completely retreating from the global community.

 

[UkroTurk]

The Germans intend to build a tank plant in Ukraine

The plant can produce up to 400 Panther tanks per year

Negotiations are underway on the construction of a tank plant in Ukraine. The head of the Rheinmetall concern hopes that a decision will be made in the next two months.

The German arms concern Rheinmetall intends to build a tank plant in Ukraine. Negotiations are already underway about this. This was stated by the head of the company Armin Papperger, Spiegel reports



"For about 200 million euros, a Rheinmetall plant can be built in Ukraine, which would produce up to 400 (tanks - ed.) Panthers per year. Negotiations with the Ukrainian government are promising, and I hope that a decision will be made in the next two months," - Papper noted.

According to him, the plant can be protected from Russian air raids, and this "protection by air defense will not be difficult."

"To win the war, Ukraine needs from 600 to 800 tanks, and to meet this need, production must be established promptly," the head of Rheinmetall said.

He noted that even if Germany abandons all 300 Leopard 2 tanks available to the Bundeswehr, this will still be too little.

According to Papperger, the concern is currently working "in full force" and is producing about 250 tanks.

Rheinmetall will Panzerfabrik in der Ukraine aufbauen

Die westlichen Verbündeten kratzen seit Monaten mühsam Panzer für die Ukraine zusammen – doch das Land braucht wohl noch Hunderte. Nun verhandelt Rheinmetall mit Kiew über den Aufbau einer eigenen Panther-Fertigung.

www.spiegel.de

 

[Afif]

That is a good way to lower the cost, otherwise this tank wouldn’t be affordable.

 

[Kathirz]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632002844038504448

 

[Mailman]

I pretty much confirm that Russia is evil and so is everybody else. So how is it whatsaboutism when I just acknowledge everything is practically the same? You know, politics, is not for the faint hearted, and war is politics by other means.

The one I see complaining is you and contriusc, I pretty much calm you guys by noting that this something normal and of the ordinary.

All I am saying is one has little right to criticise if he is not willing to do anything about it. The talk is still about Indonesia taking neutral position about occupation attemt because ... ? Whatsaboutism was about your Israel example, but nice move to change the subject.

True rapist are rapist, but I found it funny is one rapist insisting that his rape is not any worse than the other.

Please explain. Whose rape is worse than other, how it was insisted to who and what is funny about it.

Perhaps being more resilient to sanctions ? We never know when the next package of sanctions will came, Its a completely different thing if the US sanctions Indonesia with that the US sanctioning powerful self sufficient countries like China.
The goal is to be self sufficient, while not completely retreating from the global community.

That gives a little hope. I can understand the self sufficiency aspect, but what could be the conditions completely accepting the global community? This is the second time I am asking this.

 

[Gary]

All I am saying is one has little right to criticise if he is not willing to do anything about it. The talk is still about Indonesia taking neutral position about occupation attemt because ... ?

Just in case you missed anything, Indonesia is not neutral at the last U.N assembly on Ukraine, we voted green. While I myself couldn't fathom why, I have good faith that Indonesian diplomats and representatives has a more complete calculation behind our decision to condemn.

My entire view is that because politics are inherently evil, being heartless is not only allowed but is a requirement of itself. In the end this is the game of power not charity. Your move will either advance your interest or kill it. Good thing for us that our condemnation are followed by 146 others and our socio-politic-economic ties with Russia aren't that big tbh. And because everybody is being evil when it suits their interest, at least I feel comfortable being evil this time. While Invasion in the contemporary time is not advisable, its completely normal and certainly nothing to be shocked about. War is politics by other means, and it kinda irked me to see Westerners complain about war near home when they have brought war and devastate entire people and society for the last 100 years or so and continue to do so.

The biggest worry is a Russia-China alliance in the Pacific, because if you push them too hard, Russia will arrive at the point where there is nothing to loose. And even a bit of Russian help in the Pacific would be a disaster consider China's naval and air supremacy in the Pacific. The better solution for Indo-Pac country is to stay silent and do nothing, neither condemn nor abstain.

I'm certainly not a man of whataboutism, in fact I take politics as it is, and view them from the same perspective. If there's whataboutism that would come from you.

Please explain. Whose rape is worse than other, how it was insisted to who and what is funny about it.

Rape is rape, never in my life has I start identifying rape as rape lvl.1, rape lvl.2, rape lvl.3 and so on.

That gives a little hope. I can understand the self sufficiency aspect, but what could be the conditions completely accepting the global community? This is the second time I am asking this.

Did we reject the global community in the first place lmao ?

 

[MaciekRS]

The biggest worry is a Russia-China alliance in the Pacific, because if you push them too hard, Russia will arrive at the point where there is nothing to loose. And even a bit of Russian help in the Pacific would be a disaster consider China's naval and air supremacy in the Pacific. The better solution for Indo-Pac country is to stay silent and do nothing, neither condemn nor abstain.

1. What russian help? We are in XXI century not in XX and right now all help that Russia can offer China is simply Siberia. Thats it.
China can vasalize russia easily after russia's collapse but China wont get much from it. Russia is a paper tiger with XX century technology and China is already miles ahead.
2. You really think China has air and naval supremacy on Pacific? HOW? Maybe in next 10, 20 years but not now.

 

[Mailman]

Just in case you missed anything, Indonesia is not neutral at the last U.N assembly on Ukraine, we voted green. While I myself couldn't fathom why, I have good faith that Indonesian diplomats and representatives has a more complete calculation behind our decision to condemn.

Sorry about that, my bad.

My entire view is that because politics are inherently evil, being heartless is not only allowed but is a requirement of itself. In the end this is the game of power not charity. Your move will either advance your interest or kill it. Good thing for us that our condemnation are followed by 146 others and our socio-politic-economic ties with Russia aren't that big tbh. And because everybody is being evil when it suits their interest, at least I feel comfortable being evil this time. While Invasion in the contemporary time is not advisable, its completely normal and certainly nothing to be shocked about. War is politics by other means, and it kinda irked me to see Westerners complain about war near home when they have brought war and devastate entire people and society for the last 100 years or so and continue to do so.

Huh, do you really see it that way? Second time to tell, what a dark world you are living in. Let me remind you, Europe encountered 2 world wide wars during last 100 years, 60 million deaths in the last one alone. Do I catch a glimpse of sarkasm here?

The biggest worry is a Russia-China alliance in the Pacific, because if you push them too hard, Russia will arrive at the point where there is nothing to loose. And even a bit of Russian help in the Pacific would be a disaster consider China's naval and air supremacy in the Pacific. The better solution for Indo-Pac country is to stay silent and do nothing, neither condemn nor abstain.

Ok, I am getting to understand a bit. Thanks.

I'm certainly not a man of whataboutism, in fact I take politics as it is, and view them from the same perspective. If there's whataboutism that would come from you.

Ok, let that be. We just do not understand each other.

Rape is rape, never in my life has I start identifying rape as rape lvl.1, rape lvl.2, rape lvl.3 and so on.

I still do not get it. Another murky sarkasm perhaps?

Did we reject the global community in the first place lmao ?

Your words: "The goal is to be self sufficient, while not completely retreating from the global community." It means at least partial retreat from global community, does it not?

 

[Afif]

1. What russian help? We are in XXI century not in XX and right now all help that Russia can offer China is simply Siberia. Thats it.
China can vasalize russia easily after russia's collapse but China wont get much from it. Russia is a paper tiger with XX century technology and China is already miles ahead.
2. You really think China has air and naval supremacy on Pacific? HOW? Maybe in next 10, 20 years but not now.

Actually Russians could offer China SSN tech, by and large only domain where Chinese still lacking behind compared to the other global powers.

Fourth gen Yassen SSNs are some of the best in this class. Maybe not completely on per with SEAWOLF or Virginia, But nevertheless good enough.

( Not my opinion, you can read articles about its capability from various prestigious western security think tanks. )

 

[Gary]

1. What russian help? We are in XXI century not in XX and right now all help that Russia can offer China is simply Siberia. Thats it.
China can vasalize russia easily after russia's collapse but China wont get much from it. Russia is a paper tiger with XX century technology and China is already miles ahead.

There's something called fleet in being in a naval war

Fleet in being - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

If war erupts in the Pacific, the only chance for China's failure is for the US to go full gear in the Pacific and blow up as many Chinese ship as possible. Having Russia making even the slightest hint that they're going to participate means the U.S and its Asia Pacific allies would have to divert significant number of hulls just to keep the Russians from ever leaving port.

So, for our vote in the U.N assembly, We might have accidentally invited an unwanted guest.

At some point the hardliners of Moscow will be like "yeah f*ck this we're going to increase tensions by making fire in the Pacific, we have nothing to loose anyway"

2. You really think China has air and naval supremacy on Pacific? HOW? Maybe in next 10, 20 years but not now.

It already is since late 2010s.

Your words: "The goal is to be self sufficient, while not completely retreating from the global community." It means at least partial retreat from global community, does it not?

Indonesia is what I like to term 2nd rate Western allies at best and could one day be termed enemies once the West is done with

Indonesia's worth in this global order is akin to that of an online trading chart, sometimes its up, sometimes its down.

So in the long term, Indonesia must be sufficiently powerful enough in everything and independent. I like to make China as an example. (Except the cult of personality of leaders part).

 

[Ecderha]

A Week, couple of days ago there were attack on the Tuapse oil depot in the russian, Black Sea port.
russian propaganda back then said that drone miss the target and no damage to the main Oil depot in Black Sea.
As we all know that russians are lairs and like to fabricate lies.

The video of the attack on the Tuapse oil depot in the russian Black Sea port came out.
The Reality and the True.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1632070106938503169

 

[Ecderha]

Another one.......
Tea or Window? choose

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1631682580847247363

 

[Relic]

Per the Ukrainian ambassador to Great Britain , the U.K. will double the number of Challenger 2 Tanks they are committing to Ukraine. They will now send 28 Chellenger 2's, after initially committing 14 of the MBTs.

28 is a substantial donation as it is nearly an entire Ukrainian tank battalion, which consists of 31 total tanks.

I'll post a U.K. source to confirm, as soon as I see one!

 

[contricusc]

There are no real standard of legitimacy and morals on modern geopolitics. When I use realpolitik wrt Ukraine, I use the same realpolitik that the West has been using for the last century or so when dealing with others. Hence my point is, while you're trying your best to differentiate things, I try my best to associate things up.

So if countries are becoming indecent to other people's suffering, that is because they learn the art of modern geopolitics also from indecent people. The idea and appearance of modern nation states where their only goals is advancements in self-interests doesn't come from Asia or Africa.

Your theory basically rests on the concept that “the West was immoral when it suited them, so we have the right to be immoral when it suits us”.

I can’t argue with that, except for the fact that other’s past immorality doesn’t excuse one’s current immorality.

If you think countries should disregard morals just because others did it in the past, that’s your point of view, but I don’t agree with it as this kind of thinking doesn’t serve the long term interests of smaller and weaker countries.

In the past where the Western world is pretty much supreme, lesser countries must obey their whims on certain standard or face pretty painful consequence. Now, with countries in Asia are gaining position and power rapidly, it's not going to be like the old days, where the West dictate what to do. Certainly now, the west couldn't dictate the likes of China and India, and have to tread carefully on middle powers like Indonesia or Turkiye if they want their support. 300million Indonesian, that's pretty big. I wonder what's the bargain for our vote of condemnation in the U.N assembly.

“Lesser countries” can support other lesser countries when they are being abused (like supporting Ukraine against Russia’s aggression), or they can play hardball geopolitics “because the West can’t dictate them what to do”.

It’s their choice, but my opinion is that it’s a huge mistake for smaller non-imperialist countries to act in an egoistic way when it comes to situation like the one in Ukraine, because nobody knows when it will be their turn to need international assistance, and their past track record will be judged when they will ask for help.

You seem to be of the belief that countries can be self reliant and resilient against international sanctions. My belief is that no amount of “sanction proofing” can defend a country from being hugely damaged by international sanctions, and smart leaders should make sure that they will never give reasons for their countries to be sanctioned, instead of trying to be less dependent on the international order.

 

[contricusc]

Sweden and Finland have themselves to blame for pissing off the Turks.

I think you are referring to Sweden, because I don’t know how Finland pissed off the Turks. From what I understand, Turkey would have no problem with approving Finland’s entry into NATO if their application was separated from that of Sweden.

While I understand Turkey’s issues with Sweden, I don’t think that opposing their accession to NATO is a good strategic decision for Turkey. Europeans don’t like to be forced to refuse one of their own, and Turkey is looking a lot less European when refusing to accept Sweden.

I think it is in the best interest of Turkey to be as close as possible with the EU and to work on creating an image of a European country for itself. But under Erdogan, Turkey has tried to be more Asian and less European, and I don’t think this is a good strategy, simply because Turkey’s Asian neighbors are a lot less powerful and influential than the EU.

 

[contricusc]

The biggest worry is a Russia-China alliance in the Pacific, because if you push them too hard, Russia will arrive at the point where there is nothing to loose. And even a bit of Russian help in the Pacific would be a disaster consider China's naval and air supremacy in the Pacific. The better solution for Indo-Pac country is to stay silent and do nothing, neither condemn nor abstain.

So let me get this straight: You think it would be good for Indonesia to stay silent and do nothing regarding Ukraine because you fear a potential Russia-China alliance in the Pacific, and you think staying silent in Ukraine will help you avoid conflict with the Russia-China alliance?

And btw, China doesn’t have naval and air supremacy in the Pacific. Not even close to that.

 

[Gary]

Your theory basically rests on the concept that “the West was immoral when it suited them, so we have the right to be immoral when it suits us”.

correct

You seem to be of the belief that countries can be self reliant and resilient against international sanctions. My belief is that no amount of “sanction proofing” can defend a country from being hugely damaged by international sanctions, and smart leaders should make sure that they will never give reasons for their countries to be sanctioned, instead of trying to be less dependent on the international order.

As I said, we clearly profit from the current world order, but we don't win. If lets say our passivity results in the complete collapse of the Western international order, we will persevere in the following world order that comes next. The idea is not to retreat from the global community, but to play the game and wait for own's opportunity.

I have yet to see a world order that span 150 years or so...hence why bother ?

Anyway, looking at Turkiye's experiment of trying to be accepted as part of Western order and the rejection that comes after it, should give us an idea that we do not put our foot to deep in the current geopolitical arrangement.

So let me get this straight: You think it would be good for Indonesia to stay silent and do nothing regarding Ukraine because you fear a potential Russia-China alliance in the Pacific, and you think staying silent in Ukraine will help you avoid conflict with the Russia-China alliance?

The U.S will likely go to war with China in the Pacific, and its not even because of us,. But because of Taiwan. Indonesia will at best look from the sideline and gave statement regarding our concern of the destabilizing situation around indopac.

For us, if the US succeed congratulations, but if China wins, Jakarta will likely change course and formulate a new foreign policy design to better suit the reality around them. for us, it will be annoying, but for the U.S and its western security order, it will be a disaster of unimaginable proportion if they lose.

So yes, we could be neutral when it comes to Europe and we're not expecting the U.S to retaliate by cozying with China anytime soon

And btw, China doesn’t have naval and air supremacy in the Pacific. Not even close to that.

People could believe everything they like, but its funny that this assessment comes from....Romania. People surrounding CHN doesn't take the threat that lightly.

 

[Afif]

If you think countries should disregard morals just because others did it in the past, that’s your point of view.

Not just what they did, but what they will do again if circumstances arrive.

It’s their choice, but my opinion is that it’s a huge mistake for smaller non-imperialist countries to act in an egoistic way when it comes to situation like the one in Ukraine, because nobody knows when it will be their turn to need international assistance, and their past track record will be judged when they will ask for help.

In a multi-polar world there wouldn't that much of issue for so called international support.

But if you mean, western support.....Well, non of us believe if something happens to our countries, West will come running to provide arms or put sanctions against the aggressor anyway.