There is good possibility in case of Typhoon sale to Türkiye, France can block the sale of Meteor. Could UK sale Meteor from RAF inventory too? Will RAF agree to it?
Meteor is one thing. Will we be able to add our own systems, even our weapons to them whether they are new built or second hand?
From a technical, organizational and conceptual look, this potential deal is a mess and the official talks for it and its details would take years to conclude if we were in a good timeline. We are not in a good timeline. We don't even know if we have a political crisis with Germany right now or not.
Do we get to add our own weapons? How do we do it? As 33% shareholder of the Eurofighter program, would Germany let us near the systems? Would we need to give the most intricate details of our new systems, like Gökdoğan to say Spain or UK to have them certify it for Typhoon? Do we want to do this?
In the case of a fresh built fleet, do we get offset deals? Do we get to build parts of the aircraft? Do we become a part of the consortium? Do we get to build our own spares for small things that don't cost much but can ground a fleet? How willing are Spanish and Brits are to push the Germans? They didn't push enough for Saudi deal.
If an EF-2000 purchase does happen, what's the timeline? Presumably 1 or 2 squadrons are to be purchased. When do we get FOC for both of them? 5-8 years?
If we get second hand aircraft from Spain and UK, can we modernize them without Germany's acceptance and equipment support? If it can be done without them, can we afford such an increase in cost neccesitated by German removal?
Few things are clear. Our fighters are the most obsolete in the region compared to our regional rivals except for Iran. In a world even Iraq is in talks to get Rafales, we cannot keep an edge with short of breathe legacy F-16s. In a future where we try to extend our geopolitical footprint, F-16s alone won't also be able to cover enough ground whether with Özgür or B70.
Light of our eyes, Kaan will not be combat ready in number before at least 15 years, if things go according to plan. And our plans never go according to plan. We don't have a substitute for F110s. We will never have a substitute during Kaan's development. Kaan's development is frozen for at least 2 decades unless Americans give us the engines. Adding more, Can we entrust our airspace to a radar that has not yet even flown, a flying wing drone that hasn't yet even flown and a fighter drone prototype with underpowered Ukrainian engines? Can we afford to wait 15-20 more years for our own stuff to mature?
We wasted almost 10 years doing nothing. We set out to have near total air force independence from the US in the future and we are more dependent on them than we were ever before. Greece did what we currently aim to do with the EF-2000 purchase more than 20 years ago. When they understood that they couldn't trust US against us, decided to diversify, and they went to the French and got Mirages. That relationship grew and grew and 25 years later, they now operate best of what France has to offer and they also got a joint defence agreement out of it. War with Greece for Turkey means war with France as well, they are now military allies. France is treaty bound to defend Greece.
We missed the diversification train in more than 3 occasions. Europeans tried to sell us their aircraft multiple times. They offered Tornado in 80s, Italians offered Eurofighter in 2000s and Brits offered another Typhoon deal in 2010s. We never took the step that mattered in any of these cases. When we joined in on those programs, our air force flourished, like when we got CN-235s and A400Ms.
I'm always fine with being the pessimist. I also can't claim to know if such a deal would for the best or even if it's possible. But in a world where we can't trust US to do simplest things and while both our fighter projects hang in the balance between their two fingers, we cannot allow to NOT diversify our air force. If anything, this might just be push Americans enough to play ball in a more level field, like what drones did for us in the last decade. We had to take these actions 30, 20 or 10 years ago. Next best time is tomorrow, and I will whole heartedly support it if it happens no matter the details. Even a squadron of Tranche 1s with AIM-120s would be a net positive. If Greece can operate 3 types(soon 4) of fighters, we can afford it as well.
breakingdefense.com
