Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[Scott Summers]

You need 2 big bombs.
The truth is Russia is Moscow and St Petersburg, rest is big nothing.
This is not China that has hundreds of important cities over few milion ppl.

Thay was exactly my point. Russia has a lot less to lose in a nuclair war. Imagine Europe and US with their hundreds of big cities.

 

[GoatsMilk]

You need 2 big bombs.
The truth is Russia is Moscow and St Petersburg, rest is big nothing.
This is not China that has hundreds of important cities over few milion ppl.

I've made my position clear on the Ukraine situation. But id argue from a Turkish geopolitical perspective this Russian fiasco has been excellent. Before the invasion Turkey was facing problems directly with Russia in Syria, Libya, Azerbaijan. The threat of war and conflict with Russia was very real, not to mention our "allies" not all but most showed themselves to be pro Russia. A good example was when Turkey down the Russian jet, most NATO nations took Russias side. Many of them took away their air defences from our border etc. When Russia was going to assault idlib, which would have resulted in another 4 million refugees to Turkey and then opening the land up to PKK occupation, the EU threatened Turkey not do anything. There are many more examples where when it came to Turkey or Russia, the west sided with Russia, actually emboldened them to be aggressive towards Turkey.

So from a Turkish perspective this disaster of an invasion has been an absolute god send, if you don't look at this situation morally, if this war went on another 50 years it would be excellent business for Turkey.

Now morally no one can justify the horrors Ukraine is going through, but the pressure Russia was exerting on Turkey has completely diminished. If i were in charge of Turkey i would have done a lot more to help Ukraine screw Russia, because truth be told this failed invasion is an opportunity of an era let alone a life time.

As for all the nuclear fear mongering, if its real the solution isn't to capitulate to russian tyranny its to get your own deterrent. But since the end of world war 2 that nuclear war drum has been beating. For the most part its pure fantasy, billionaires don't want to die.

 

[GoatsMilk]

The Ukrainian government is almost more pro-Israel than the US government.

I see no difference between the Bandera-nazis from Kiev and the childkilling genocidial IDF-thugs from Tel Aviv.

Zelensky and Netanyahu are both from the same murderous tribe. I dont care if Russia nukes Ukraine to the middle ages.

Russia has a historic right on Ukraine, like Turkey has a historic right on Cyprus, Syria and Iraq.

Russian history in Ukraine is nothing compared to Turkish history there, nothing. Fun fact Turks held Ukraine for double to triple the time they've currently held Istanbul.

But that what Russians do, they wipe out the domestic peoples and then rewrite history. Turks held what is much of Ukraine for longer then they have currently held Anatolia.

 

[Gary]

So if some idiots who support Ukraine on Twitter are also supporting Israel, this means you shouldn’t piy the innocent Ukrainians that are victims of this unjust war?

By the same logic, we shouldn’t pity the Palestinians being slaughtered by the IDF because some idiots who support Palestine on Twitter also support Russia…

You know, when you reach a certain threshold (ranks, or in the case of 21st century warfare= followers, subscribers) you stop being an individual and you become the very face of the country.

A single Ukrainian with less than 50 followers on X echoing israeli propaganda is not the same when you are an internet personlaity with a fuck ton of followers, or in the case of Thomas Theiner, Julian Roepcke and Tatarigami and their likes, either an active duty officer or has appeared so often in talk shows, news, about Ukraine they become synonymous with the country they claim to represent.

Tatarigami is just one of the many examples, he is not an exception, he is the norm. In fact he is the more moderate one.


=====================================>>

For Ukrainian media personlaity, I know you want to do your best to suck up the West and portray events in the ME as somewhat relevant to your agitation campaign against Russia and somewhat elevate your perceived moral standings in front of the Western audience, but just like how you sucking up to israel resulted in your ammo getting diverted towards Israel, none of your online tricks will help you reverse the sorry situation you're fiding yourself into

 

[Relic]

Because I've started posting Andrew Perpetua's visually documented, geolocated losses for both sides in this conflict, I'm going to compile Russia's weekly losses in a post as well. There are some Russian supporters that don't believe that Russias is actually losing scores of equipment at an unsustainable pace, but they are. So here goes for week #1 of tracking weekly losses.

Andrew Perpetua's visually documented, geolocated losses of Russian military equipment.

Sun, Feb 4th - Sat, Feb 10th

- 62 Main Battle Tanks
- 53 Infantry Fighting Vehicles
- 28 Armored Personnel Carriers
- 36 Light armored vehicles
- 19 Artillery
- 7 Engineering Vehicle
- 10 Surv / Comms Equipment
- 2 Electronic Warfare Equipment
- 3 Air Defense Launcher / RADAR
- 1 Command and Control Unit
- 95 Civilian Vehicles

 

[Gary]

Very rapid advance imo, considering the pace we saw around the Avdiivka salient in the past few months

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1756714956655886680

 

[contricusc]

Sun, Feb 4th - Sat, Feb 10th

- 62 Main Battle Tanks
- 53 Infantry Fighting Vehicles
- 28 Armored Personnel Carriers
- 36 Light armored vehicles
- 19 Artillery
- 7 Engineering Vehicle
- 10 Surv / Comms Equipment
- 2 Electronic Warfare Equipment
- 3 Air Defense Launcher / RADAR
- 1 Command and Control Unit
- 95 Civilian Vehicles

If we don’t ask for too much, can you also sum-up Ukrainian losses, so we can clearly see the difference and the loss ratio?

For example, say “62 Main Battle Tanks for RU vs 14 for UA”.

 

[contricusc]

You know, when you reach a certain threshold (ranks, or in the case of 21st century warfare= followers, subscribers) you stop being an individual and you become the very face of the country.

The people of one country are not guilty by association because some media personalities in their country have stupid opinions. The majority of Palestinians do not desreve what is happening to them just because Hamas did a terror attack.

Just as Hamas doesn’t represent all Palestinians, those stupid Ukrainians who support Israel don’t represent the whole nation.

In both wars, one country is clearly in the wrong, and I’m talking about the invading countries, Russia and Israel. Both of them try to justify their aggression as a form of self defense against terror attacks (Azov/Hamas), but in reality their only intention is to grab land. Let’s hope both will lose and will not accomplish their objectives.

 

[Kartal1]

This is a warning to everyone. Stay away from trolling, personal attacks, insults based on nationality, religion or beliefs.

Messages were deleted and warnings were given.

Thank you!

 

[Iskander]

Very rapid advance imo, considering the pace we saw around the Avdiivka salient in the past few months

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1756714956655886680

Yes, indeed, the pace of the Russians is simply crazy. It looks like they will capture half of Avdiivka this year. The rest comes next. In one word - Bliskrig

 

[Relic]

Russia had about 12,000 main Battle tanks before the war started. Satelite imagery shows that 3000 of those tanks are beyond the point of repair and cannot be restored. That leaves 9000 pre-invasion tanks in their arsenal.

They're losing 2000-2400 tanks per year. They are producing 200 new tanks per year to offset losses, but the remainder of their tanks are restored from storage.

Therefore, Russia is facing a tank deficit of 1800-2200 tanks per year, which is a disastrous pace of loss (9-11x yearly production). What compounds the issue is that the quality of tanks Russia has available as replacements continues to get significantly worse. More than 2000 of Russia's once available 9000 tanks, are ancient T-55 and T-62 variants.

Therefore, Russia realistically started to conflict with 7000'ish salvageable, T-90, T-80 and T-72 main battle tanks. They've lost roughly 3000 of those tanks to capture, destruction and / or significant damage. They've also produced roughly 400 new tanks in that time frame.

That leave us Russia with roughly 4000-4500 mbts available to them, with some ancient T-62s and T-55s in deep reserve.

The West has to keep up funding, because their plan is working. Half of Russia's available modern tank fleet has already been eliminated. With Ukraine's short range drone mastery peeking, Russia is losing them at a higher rate now than they did in the first year of the war. There is simply no way to produce / restore them at anywhere close to the speed they need to in order to keep up with their losses.

EU needs to buy the 450,000 artillery shells that the Czechs have identified in foreign markets. They also need to to donate the 300-400 additional Leopard 1A5 and T-72 tanks that are still available in Europe. Meanwhile, USA needs to pass their aid package and send Ukraine another 300,000'ish artillery shells ASAP, along with more anti-tank weapons and the more than 250 M198 howitzers that they have in storage and 200-300 more Bradley IFVs to replace losses and increase Ukraine's fleet. Canada has tens of thousands of CRV7 rockets available that can be fired from aviation and ground launched from trucks... All of this stuff needs to get to Ukraine ASAP. It's all surplus from Western inventories and is simply costing money, while collecting dust, in storage. Russia's tank fleet it about one year away from being in a critical state. Their IFV fleet is in a very similar state.

We're so close to neutering the Russian land army for a generation and it has cost very little money in the grand scheme of things. I really hope Western leadership doesn't lose sight of that reality.

 

[Relic]

If we don’t ask for too much, can you also sum-up Ukrainian losses, so we can clearly see the difference and the loss ratio?

For example, say “62 Main Battle Tanks for RU vs 14 for UA”.

Here is the complete comparison you're looking for.

Andrew Perpetua's visually confirmed and geolocated losses for Russia and Ukraine. Saturday, February 4th -Friday, Feb 9th.

Main Battle Tanks
Russia: 69
Ukraine: 16

Infantry Fighting Vehicles
Russia: 68
Ukraine: 9

Armored Personnel Carriers
Russia: 30
Ukraine: 11

Light armored vehicles
Russia: 26
Ukraine: 4

Artillery
Russia: 17
Ukraine: 7

Engineering Vehicles
Russia: 3
Ukraine: 1

Surv / Comms Equipment
Russia: 11
Ukraine: 3

Electronic Warfare Equipment
Russia: 3
Ukraine: 3

Air Defense Launcher / RADAR
Russia: 3
Ukraine: 0

Command and Control Unit
Russia: 1
Ukraine: 0

Civilian Vehicles
Russia: 92
Ukraine: 45

Boat
Russia: 0
Ukraine: 10

 

[Gary]

Sergey Shoigu inspects one of Russia's many factory set up to mass produce Lancet, Zala drones and all sorts of UAVs

A look at the factories producing the BTR-MDM and BMP-3 IFV at Kurganmashzavod

+bonus, recent new Su-34M coming out of UAC factory

https://x.com/La_souris_DA/status/1755489024632918426?s=20

 

[Relic]

You know what, there isn't much I agree with Donald Trump about, but something I do agree with is the idea that Europe should be primarily responsible for funding Ukraine's defense, for two reasons.

1. They are the countries most directly affected if Ukraine falls.

2. Most European NATO countries (like my own country) have failed to meet their 2% NATO commitments for many years, instead letting USA foot the bill for European defense.

If I were America, I would make the following demand in exchange for continued support. Each NATO country (USA aside) must commit 0.5% of their GDP to Ukraine EACH YEAR for the remainder of the conflict. Those funds can come in the form of macro financial aid to the Ukrainian Government (which is fungible) or direct military aid.

This is what it would look like in terms of annual liabilities...

Germany : $20 Billion usd
Britain : $15.5 Billion usd
France : $14.0 Billion usd
Canada : $10.5 Billion usd
Italy : $10.0 Billion usd
Spain : $7.0 Billion usd
Netherlands : $5.0 Billion usd
Poland : $3.3 Billion usd
Sweden : $2.9 Billion usd
Norway : $2.9 Billion usd
Belgium : $2.9 Billion usd
Denmark : $2.0 Billion usd
Czechia : $1.5 Billion usd
Romania : $1.5 Billion usd
Finland : $1.4 Billion usd
Portugal : $1.3 Billion usd
Greece : $1.1 Billion usd
Hungary : $890 Million usd
Slovakia : $575 Million usd
Bulgaria : $445 Million usd
Luxembourg : $410 Million usd
Croatia : $350 Million usd
Lithuania : $350 Million usd
Slovenia : $310 Million usd
Latvia : $205 Million usd
Estonia : $190 Million usd
Iceland : $140 Million usd
Albania : $95 Million usd
North Macedonia : $65 Million usd
Montenegro : $30 Million usd

Estimated Total: $105 Billion usd

Those NATO nations would then be supplemented by the following spending already announced / pending.

United States : $60.1 Billion usd
Ukraine : $45 Billion usd

 

[Relic]

Andrew Perpetua's documented loses for Russia and Ukraine, Sunday, February, 11th.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1756912005452112065

 

[Gary]

One of the big + of Russia losing so many tanks early in the war and the subsequent embargo on equipments (hetliners for example) is Russia is forced to revive the dying Russian military industry and actually expand it.

New plant to supply V92-S engine (for T-72 series) has been opened

A production site has been opened at ChTZ to increase the production of forced engines​

02/01/2024, 15:52
Officially



At the Chelyabinsk Tractor Plant - URALTRAK (part of JSC Concern Uralvagonzavod, part of the Rostec State Corporation) they launched a new production site, necessary for a multiple increase in serially produced forced-diesel engines. The opening ceremony was attended by the Governor of the Chelyabinsk Region Alexey Teksler and the General Director of the Uralvagonzavod concern Alexander Potapov.

ChTZ designers successfully solved the problem of improving the basic characteristics of the serial V-92S2 diesel engine by increasing the strength characteristics of the metal from which the product parts are made. To increase the production volume of high-strength parts, the company has created a new ion nitriding section.

На ЧТЗ открыт производственный участок для увеличения выпуска форсированных двигателей

На Челябинском тракторном заводе - УРАЛТРАК (в составе АО «Концерн «Уралвагонзавод» входит в Госкорпорацию «Ростех») запустили работу нового производственного участка, необходимого для кратного...

chelyabinsk-news.net

 

[Gary]

Of course, once Ukraine surrenders, the victors will have access to the equipment of the losers. Reminiscent of Ukraine now, The U.S. once armed the RVN (South Vietnam army) with the latest (at the time) U.S. military equipment and a slush of funds to keep them afloat. That didn't help much.

Ex-RVN M107 and M48 Pattons in PAVN storage

Ex-ANA MRAP in Taliban hands

and once upon a time... Iraq

So the U.S. formula of equipping + funding has been tried and tested before...and ended in failure, of course, Washington being Washington, it didn't stop them from repeating the same error it is doing now in Ukraine. Like the habit of throwing sanctions, It's becoming a habitual cycle now with the U.S. trying again and again to solve new problems with the old method.

Certain things could not be solved by merely throwing money.

In Afghanistan, the U.S. not only lavishly equipped the Afghan National Army with multi-million Dollar equipment, but at the same time pumped so much money into the country in a bid to win influence and own the Taliban, that the unintended consequence is that the country becomes a center of Kleptocracy and money laundering operations. In the years before the collapse of Iraq (2014) and Afghanistan (2021), the U.S. pumped millions of dollars each month to pay for the salaries of the ISF and the ANA, only for corrupt bureaucrats to siphon the money and in the case of Afghanistan and Iraq, they actually created a whole list of imaginary "ghost soldiers" battalion who existed on administrative papers to ask for more funding to pay for these "ghosts" bills. Ukraine is very similar in its corruption levels to the 2 countries.

In the end, money hollowed out the ISF and the ANA before their collapse. What started as gradual deterioration suddenly escalated into wholesale collapse Let's see if flooding Ukraine with money and weapons is actually the best plan going forward

What Russia has, and Ukraine clearly doesn't, is that Russia has a working and expanding military industry. The Russian leadership didn't travel all around the world to beg for shipments of tanks, whatever they found insufficient, they bought it from friendly countries like North Korea and Iran...with gold.

So once Russia acquired Ukraine, the sheer wealth that Ukraine has in the form of its agricultural fields, natural resources, industries, etc. Will compensate for the heavy losses Russia suffered during its attempt to grab Ukrainian land.

Personally, I think the biggest prize of a Russian victory is the number of population that will be added to the restored empire of Moscow. Even my modest estimate of an addition of 20 Million men (the ones that I predicted would stay in Ukraine over the long term and not flee to the EU), is still a huge boost compared to around 300,000-350,000 men they had lost earlier in their attempt. Please note that Russia had already around 7-9 million additions to its population pool from the acquired territory of Donets, Lugansk, and Crimea.

Together with Belarus, the New Russian Empire under Tsar Vladimir will command approximately 150-170 million men, not quite large compared to the Soviet Onion, but a considerable improvement for a country that used to be at the top 3 of population rankings and secure the recruitment base against an aggressive Western powers at its doorstep

After acquiring the population, Russia is likely going after the Ukrainian gold reserves to compensate for their material losses as well as dismantling factory equipment from Eastern Ukraine to Russia. Ukraine will then be a useful bread basket that Russia could use as leverage for non-cooperative African/Asian countries, although to be fair in the case of Africa that's no longer needed as the Russian influence had steadily grown in the continent in the aftermath of the French withdrawal in Sahel. As for Pakistan who imported their wheat mainly from Ukraine, the military-installed governor who is close to the U.S. will have to think twice before ever doing something that is detrimental to Russia's security (such as supplying artillery rounds to whomever Russia is dealing with).

 

[UkroTurk]

Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack Nato allies who pay too little

Trump’s comments must have been “music” to the ears of Putin.

Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack Nato allies who pay too little

The Joe Biden White House rebuked the former president’s comments as ‘appalling and unhinged’

www.theguardian.com

WORLD NEWS
‘Is this how Europe ends?’ Trump’s Nato warning is a wake-up call
Nato countries may now start revisiting their defence budgets
updated


Several weeks ago a circle of European political leaders, high-ranking diplomats and foreign policy thinkers gathered for a private dinner.

Given the recent developments in Ukraine and the United States, the mood around the table was glum enough to begin with. Then, participants say, one senior minister reduced the gathering to a shocked post-prandial silence with a single question: “Is this how Europe ends?”

Trump says he would encourage Russia to attack Nato allies who don’t pay
The scenario the minister had in mind was not so much a President Trump taking the US out of Nato but a President Trump who simply questions whether America would come to the defence of its European allies.

This nightmare vision became reality in the space of 20 seconds on Saturday night.

‘Is this how Europe ends?’ Trump’s Nato warning is a wake-up call

Nato countries may now start revisiting their defence budgets

www.thetimes.co.uk

 

[Iskander]

The President of Mongolia in 2009-2017, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, reacted to Vladimir Putin’s “historical lecture” in an interview with American propagandist Tucker Carlson, where he justified the invasion of Ukraine with the “historical lands of Russia.”

According to him, after Putin’s speech he found a historical map of Mongolia.

“On this map you can see that the modern territory of Rus' was part of the Mongol Empire for several centuries”...

But Mongolia is not going to conduct a Special Military Operation on its former territories, the former president assures

"Don't worry. We are a peaceful and free nation,” writes Elbegdorj.

 

[Ryder]

The President of Mongolia in 2009-2017, Tsakhiagiin Elbegdorj, reacted to Vladimir Putin’s “historical lecture” in an interview with American propagandist Tucker Carlson, where he justified the invasion of Ukraine with the “historical lands of Russia.”

According to him, after Putin’s speech he found a historical map of Mongolia.

“On this map you can see that the modern territory of Rus' was part of the Mongol Empire for several centuries”...

But Mongolia is not going to conduct a Special Military Operation on its former territories, the former president assures

"Don't worry. We are a peaceful and free nation,” writes Elbegdorj.

View attachment 65548

Turkiye and the Turkic countries actually tried to make Mongolia apart of the Turkic World instead they rejected us just like Tajikistan.

Now they are stuck being sandwiched between Russia and China. In the future There is even talks of Russia and China partitioning Mongolia. Right now what is saving them from full annexation is Russia and China keeping Mongolia more like a buffer zone between each other. In the future anything can change.

Mongolia could easily get crushed. They can point out Genghis Khan and Hulagu all they want but Modern day Mongolia is nothing.

Even Iraq can easily destroy them.