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sounds quite far-fetched anyway. I've been delving into the other point they bring up about this whole Ocalan thing, i.e. this all being about a war in Iran. The more I read realist voices from inside Iran and Israel and also since perusing a couple of books on the negotiations between westerners and Iran, it's becoming ever clearer that U.S. has only used the spectre of war for intimidation without any serious intent, at least since 2007 when the NIE leak was interpreted by Bush admin war hawks as a coup against plans to invade Iran. I think the pentagon assessment is that an invasion of Iran is not feasible and hitting their nuclear facilities by Israel (excluding Natanz which they can't destroy with their own bunker busters and need U.S. bombers and GBU-57) will only delay their nukes and make them more belligerent so that's not feasible either. Only remaining military option is U.S. bombers with the help of Israel hitting their nuclear facilities but that still translates to an all-out war down the line, so that's out of the picture as well. They seem to be helpless in the face of a nuclear Iran, as the sanctions only led to the acceleration of their program and their defiance. Their only hope remains unrest and civil war via "maximum pressure" which means crippling sanctions and this is the route they will resort to I think this time as well, as they have done before in 2009, 2019, 2022.
What I was trying to say is that the "analysis" that U.S. is trying to invade Iran which many of our own "analysts" have also been parroting seems to me now to be infantile and oblivious to the myriad of public information available in the books by Bill Burns, Jay Solomon, Ronen Bergman, Yousef Azizi, Ali Alizadeh, etc. which shows that none of the U.S. threats with regards to a military option on Iran have been credible since Iran passed the thresholds which they did in their nuclear program since about 2005-2007.
For me to make that mistake is one thing, but those whose job is to be political analyzers to make this mistake goes to show the horrendous level of analysis by our political commentators and politicians. I wasted almost the whole of past three days, reading up on this stuff. Hours which could have been saved if we had literate people in this country.
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