Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[GoatsMilk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1991226989210976684

 

[Relic]

Ukraine's biggest problem right now is the "chicken or egg" issue between them and their Western backers.

The West wants Ukraine to lower the age of conscription from 25 to 18 (but would likely settle for 21) in order for 100,000+ additional combat arms soldiers to be added to the Ukrainian military in order to backfill existing brigades that have faced attrition and desertion and to create new brigades the reinforce the front. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government refuses to lower the age of conscription unless the West makes meaningful and immediate contributions of modern armor, artillery and weapons. Ukraine refuses to draft the young people that will be tasked with the physical and financial reconstruction of their country post-war unless they're given what they need to survive and win, while the West sees Ukraine's unwillingness / inability to keep it's brigades strength up as a reason not send additional equipment that Ukraine lacks the manpower to use.

It's a more complicated situation to solve than many core to admit.

 

[Spitfire9]

Ukraine's biggest problem right now is the "chicken or egg" issue between them and their Western backers.

The West wants Ukraine to lower the age of conscription from 25 to 18 (but would likely settle for 21) in order for 100,000+ additional combat arms soldiers to be added to the Ukrainian military in order to backfill existing brigades that have faced attrition and desertion and to create new brigades the reinforce the front. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government refuses to lower the age of conscription unless the West makes meaningful and immediate contributions of modern armor, artillery and weapons. Ukraine refuses to draft the young people that will be tasked with the physical and financial reconstruction of their country post-war unless they're given what they need to survive and win, while the West sees Ukraine's unwillingness / inability to keep it's brigades strength up as a reason not send additional equipment that Ukraine lacks the manpower to use.

It's a more complicated situation to solve than many core to admit.

I don't know what Ukraine should do. I am under the impression that Ukrainian troops receive little leave. If true, perhaps conscripting men at 21 would be a good move to allow an increase of leave for existing troops while also satisfying Ukraine's backers.

 

[contricusc]

But there's also competition between France and Germany. Germany will likely soon become so powerful that the French will have to recall the Maginot Line

The competition between France and Germany just shows how unable to cooperate Europeans still are. France has a decent military and weapons industry, but the economy is weak. Germany has a weak military but a better economy, which is not great either. They should cooperate instead of being rivals. European countries are too small to compete by themselves against big players like US, China and even Russia.

Russia, with its constant aggression, is, as always, a real headache for all its neighbors. Everyone will have to endure it like a natural disaster. If it disintegrates, a long period of instability and war will begin, something Europe so fears.
In the end, only those who miraculously survive will be lucky.

Russia should disintegrate. Anything else is a bad outcome. Europeans are too stupid to understand that the only good oiutcome is the disintegration of Russia.

But China will win either way.
Here's my forecast for the next century

China and the US will most likely share power in a bipolar world. The US will remain king of the Western Hemisphere, while China will dominate Asia and Africa. Europe will probably remain irrelevant.

 

[Relic]

I don't know what Ukraine should do. I am under the impression that Ukrainian troops receive little leave. If true, perhaps conscripting men at 21 would be a good move to allow an increase of leave for existing troops while also satisfying Ukraine's backers.

I genuinely don't know what the answer is. I know that when Canadians and Americans joined the fight to help liberate Europe from thr existential threat of Nazi'ism, we drafted our young men at 18 years old... I can understand the West asking Ukraine to do the same in defending their own territory and people, with our funding.

On the other hand, I genuinely have no interest in sending young people to their death. Conscription in general is an awful tool, but sometimes it's neccessity. I genuinely don't blame Zelensky for having such a hard time deciding pushing in that direction. I think he's correct in lobbying the West for funds and technologies that will help him trade drones and long range weapons for chance to keep to keep the death toll for the Ukrainian military limited, within reason. That said, I just think that there are some jobs that are going to require manpower. Ukraine's best brigades have faced attrition and desperately need well trained reinforcements / replenishment. Simultaneously, Ukraine needs additional heavy brigades and in order for the West to be willing to equip them, Ukraine needs to provide an influx of manpower, to signal that they are serious about building those brigades and utilizing them effectively.

 

[Relic]

Germany has now delivered all 4 Skynex Air Defense Systems that it purchased for Ukraine. The remaining two units were recently delivered. A Skynex system consists of 4 turrets, a radar and command unit. They are designed for point defense against drones and cruise missiles and function similarly to CWIS on a naval ship. Each systems covers a 4 x 4 KM area and are used in layered air defense, to protect critical infrastructure. Systems such as Skynex are vitally important because they are relatively cheap to purchase (approximately $100 million usd per system) and their ammunition is ready to replenish. They are ideal for shooting down drones, allowing Ukraine to save their valuable air defense missiles for Russian cruise and ballistic missiles.

My biggest frustration is that Germany has now delivered these vital systems, however, because additional funding was not immediately raised by other countries, there is a break in production for additional systems for Ukraine. For approximately $400 million usd, Ukraine could get 4 more systems and tighten their air defense further. They simply need their allies to band together and fund the project. These projects should essentially never stop. Funding should be organized well in advance, so as one order is completed, the next is ready to go.

 

[contricusc]

I genuinely don't know what the answer is. I know that when Canadians and Americans joined the fight to help liberate Europe from thr existential threat of Nazi'ism, we drafted our young men at 18 years old... I can understand the West asking Ukraine to do the same in defending their own territory and people, with our funding.

Eighty years ago it was a different world, with a different system of values. Human life and freedom were not considered very important. Conscription was just one of the many abuses of power the governments of the era did.

Now we live in a different world, and forcing people to their death based on age, gender and country of origin is barbaric.

On the other hand, I genuinely have no interest in sending young people to their death. Conscription in general is an awful tool, but sometimes it's neccessity.

If you can’t get voluntary manpower for a war, then you should seek peace. Nobody has the right to force others to die on their behalf.

The fact that Europeans who are against the death penalty even for serial killers and terrorists, because of “human rights”, are pushing Ukraine to conscript more people, basically handing them death sentences for being able bodied men, is the apogee of European hipocrisy.

Apparently, for European leaders, a serial killer and rapist has more human rights than a random Ukrainian man, because you can’t just sentence him to die, but it’s ok to send young Ukrainians men to die against their will.

Maybe Europeans should send all their prisoners who serve time for violent crimes to “conscript” in the Ukrainian army, Wagner style, before they ask for Ukrainians to send more innocent people to their death. At least this would make sense, and it would be a deterrent against violent crime in Europe.

 

[Relic]

Eighty years ago it was a different world, with a different system of values. Human life and freedom were not considered very important. Conscription was just one of the many abuses of power the governments of the era did.

Now we live in a different world, and forcing people to their death based on age, gender and country of origin is barbaric.



If you can’t get voluntary manpower for a war, then you should seek peace. Nobody has the right to force others to die on their behalf.

The fact that Europeans who are against the death penalty even for serial killers and terrorists, because of “human rights”, are pushing Ukraine to conscript more people, basically handing them death sentences for being able bodied men, is the apogee of European hipocrisy.

Apparently, for European leaders, a serial killer and rapist has more human rights than a random Ukrainian man, because you can’t just sentence him to die, but it’s ok to send young Ukrainians men to die against their will.

Maybe Europeans should send all their prisoners who serve time for violent crimes to “conscript” in the Ukrainian army, Wagner style, before they ask for Ukrainians to send more innocent people to their death. At least this would make sense, and it would be a deterrent against violent crime in Europe.

I agree that if the will to fight doesn't exist, Ukraine should cede their country to Russia's will. Such is the nature of the world and of war. If you're not willing to fight for what's yours, you best be prepared that somebody else might come take it.

Personally, my views on conscription are more complicated than yours. I agree that it's barbaric and I agree that it deeply impedes on people's freedoms. There is absolutely no doubt about either of those things being true. That said, I'm not particularly interested in my tax money funding the defense of a nation if it isn't "all in" on that defense. While you might see conscription as "sending somebody to their death", the billions of dollars worth of tax payer money that my country is sending Ukraine, that could otherwise be used to significantly bolster our own healthcare system, inevitably leads to the deaths of many people for whom it's deemed "too expensive to save". Therefore, while our funds may save Ukrainian lives at the front, it has undoubtedly cost lives back at home... Is the trade off worth it? That's a difficult question and I don't think any one answer is correct. Personnally, I think it's the right thing to do, but many others would argue the opposite, and, truthfully, I don't know that I fully disagree with them either...

Is the middle ground for the Ukrainian Government to bankrupt it's taxpayers by offering payment that is so lucrative that volunteers can't help themselves but to sign up for military service, while social services collapse under the financial pressure?

 

[Soldier30]

Footage of Russian 300mm Tornado-S MLRS rocket strikes on temporary deployment sites of Ukrainian units, one of which is located on the northern outskirts of Pokrovsk. The strike used precision-guided rockets equipped with a GLONASS satellite-guided system.

 

[contricusc]

Is the middle ground for the Ukrainian Government to bankrupt it's taxpayers by offering payment that is so lucrative that volunteers can't help themselves but to sign up for military service, while social services collapse under the financial pressure?

Ukraine should first care about its troops. Equip them and pay them well. Social services are irrelevant when your country is at war, and you ask people to die defending it.

The absurdity of the situation in Ukraine is huge. Some Ukrainian men are sent to die for the country without pay, while other peole receive money from the government and contribute nothing. It’s hard to find a good reason for young Ukrainian men to support such a system, where they are second class citizens. It’s like asking the black South Africans during Apartheid to fight to defend the whites…

 

[Spitfire9]

The absurdity of the situation in Ukraine is huge. Some Ukrainian men are sent to die for the country without pay...

Are you sure about that?

 

[contricusc]

Are you sure about that?

Well, it seems that conscripts do get paid too, but forced labor even if paid is still forced labor. And when it’s something that can get you killed, it’s even worse. Conscription should not be used in a society that pretends to be democratic or free. Individual rights are the backbone of a free society, and conscription is the complete opposite of that.

 

[Relic]

Ukraine should first care about its troops. Equip them and pay them well. Social services are irrelevant when your country is at war, and you ask people to die defending it.

The absurdity of the situation in Ukraine is huge. Some Ukrainian men are sent to die for the country without pay, while other peole receive money from the government and contribute nothing. It’s hard to find a good reason for young Ukrainian men to support such a system, where they are second class citizens. It’s like asking the black South Africans during Apartheid to fight to defend the whites…

My understanding is that Ukraine's budget is already leaned out almost as much as it can be. I'm just curious where your cuts would be to come up with the billions (usd) it would require to adequately incentivize young people to join the fight?

1. Should Ukraine allow it's state medical services to collapse? Stop paying doctors, nurses and medical staff and fully privatize medical care so that it's available only to those whose can afford to pay for it on their own?

2. Should they bankrupt all forms of government pensions and allow millions of elderly Ukrainians who rely on state income, to fall into poverty, creating a domestic poverty crisis?

3. Should they stop funding emergency response services and such as police, fire, ambulance and rescue services and instead incentivize those people to join the military instead? Couple that will the elimination of any state funds being used towards primary level and / or secondary level education?

4. Should they fully default on all debts and destroy their credit, while printing money, causing hyper inflation of their currency?

I just don't know where the tens of billions of usd in funding required to recruit and pay premiums to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian young people is coming from?

 

[Spitfire9]

Well, it seems that conscripts do get paid too, but forced labor even if paid is still forced labor. And when it’s something that can get you killed, it’s even worse. Conscription should not be used in a society that pretends to be democratic or free. Individual rights are the backbone of a free society, and conscription is the complete opposite of that.

People in Ukraine who want Ukraine to survive should be able to appreciate that if an insufficient number of people to sustain Ukraine's continuing existence fail to join the armed forces, Ukraine will disappear. If Russia occupies Ukraine the freedoms lost by all citizens will be vastly greater than the freedom lost by people reluctant to fight being forced to fight.

 

[contricusc]

People in Ukraine who want Ukraine to survive should be able to appreciate that if an insufficient number of people to sustain Ukraine's continuing existence fail to join the armed forces, Ukraine will disappear.

Yes, this is true. Ukraine is in a very difficult situation.

If Russia occupies Ukraine the freedoms lost by all citizens will be vastly greater than the freedom lost by people reluctant to fight being forced to fight.

Those being forced to fight have no freedom anyway, so there is nothing for them to lose. The other Ukrainians will indeed lose more freedoms, but those being forced to fight are already at a minimum.

 

[contricusc]

My understanding is that Ukraine's budget is already leaned out almost as much as it can be. I'm just curious where your cuts would be to come up with the billions (usd) it would require to adequately incentivize young people to join the fight?

Yes, Ukraine’s budget is already stretched to the limit, but with the few resources they have, they must prioritize paying those who risk their lives to defend the country.

And they could also punish the political thieves who stole millions from the war effort to enrich themsleves, by executing them. But they are Zelensky’s buddies, so they will get away with a slap on the wrist.

The corrupt politicians who stole money from the war effort should be sent in the first line, like Prigozin’s men.

 

[Relic]

Yes, Ukraine’s budget is already stretched to the limit, but with the few resources they have, they must prioritize paying those who risk their lives to defend the country.

And they could also punish the political thieves who stole millions from the war effort to enrich themsleves, by executing them. But they are Zelensky’s buddies, so they will get away with a slap on the wrist.

The corrupt politicians who stole money from the war effort should be sent in the first line, like Prigozin’s men.

I absolutely agree that corruption should be dealt with harshly. You and I have no disagreement there. I think it's deplorable that Ukraine struggles with corruption as much as it does. That's why I'm not a fan of writing Ukraine checks, rather, I prefer to purchase military equipment, weapons and munitions directly for their military. It's much harder for funding to go missing when it's in the form of military hardware and weapons of war.

The issue I keep coming back to is that Ukraine is already spending approximately $40 Billion usd annually on it's own military. That's an enormous amount of money for a country whose entire GDP is approximately $180 Billion usd. Ukraine's own projections have them spending 26-30% of their gdp on the military this year. As a percentage of their federal budget, it's enormous.

In order to attract large volumes of young people into the military without conscription, Ukraine would likely have to pay upwards of $100,000 usd annually. I'm all for that in theory given the danger of the job, however, if Ukraine needs 100,000 more soldiers to reinforce their brigades in 2026, that's approximately $10 Billion usd just to attract new people. That doesn't count the cost to train and equip them, nor does it address retention costs for hundreds of thousands of additional troops who would also want sizeable raises.

Short of Russia's assets being confiscated to the tune of $175 Billion usd and the EU essentially taking over payment of the Ukrainian military using those funds, I have no idea where Ukraine is going to get money needed to attract quantities of additional soldiers.

 

[Relic]

Canada has announced a new military aid package for Ukraine. The package includes the following:

- 25 M113 APCs
- 75,000 Spare Parts for M113s
- 125 AIM-7 Air-to-Air Missiles
- 38 AIM-7 Missile Rails
- 34,231 Winter Sleeping Bags
- 51,679 Winter Jackets
- 22,502 Military Winter Boots
- 78,301 Military Wet Weather Boots
- 9,302 Additional Winter Items

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1991484467282636854

 

[Relic]

Chile has agreed to sell Germany 30 Marder IFVs for donatiin to Ukraine. In exchange, Chile will receive access to undisclosed German air defense systems. Germany has previously pledged 165 Marder IFVs to Ukraine, most of which have already been delivered. This purchase from Chile will bring that number to 195 units delivered.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1991534729858896227

 

[Soldier30]

A combat operation of the 9K33M3 Osa-AKM air defense system of the Russian 18th Combined Arms Army. The video shows the destruction of a Ukrainian drone in the Kherson region by a 9M33M3 missile from the Russian Osa-AKM air defense system. The drone's model is not disclosed. The Osa-AKM air defense system was adopted by the USSR in 1980. It is currently used by the Russian and Ukrainian armies. Despite its age, the air defense system reliably destroys some UAV models at ranges of up to 10 km.