Live Conflict Ukraine-Russia War

[GoatsMilk]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1991226989210976684

 

[Relic]

Ukraine's biggest problem right now is the "chicken or egg" issue between them and their Western backers.

The West wants Ukraine to lower the age of conscription from 25 to 18 (but would likely settle for 21) in order for 100,000+ additional combat arms soldiers to be added to the Ukrainian military in order to backfill existing brigades that have faced attrition and desertion and to create new brigades the reinforce the front. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government refuses to lower the age of conscription unless the West makes meaningful and immediate contributions of modern armor, artillery and weapons. Ukraine refuses to draft the young people that will be tasked with the physical and financial reconstruction of their country post-war unless they're given what they need to survive and win, while the West sees Ukraine's unwillingness / inability to keep it's brigades strength up as a reason not send additional equipment that Ukraine lacks the manpower to use.

It's a more complicated situation to solve than many core to admit.

 

[Spitfire9]

Ukraine's biggest problem right now is the "chicken or egg" issue between them and their Western backers.

The West wants Ukraine to lower the age of conscription from 25 to 18 (but would likely settle for 21) in order for 100,000+ additional combat arms soldiers to be added to the Ukrainian military in order to backfill existing brigades that have faced attrition and desertion and to create new brigades the reinforce the front. Meanwhile, the Ukrainian government refuses to lower the age of conscription unless the West makes meaningful and immediate contributions of modern armor, artillery and weapons. Ukraine refuses to draft the young people that will be tasked with the physical and financial reconstruction of their country post-war unless they're given what they need to survive and win, while the West sees Ukraine's unwillingness / inability to keep it's brigades strength up as a reason not send additional equipment that Ukraine lacks the manpower to use.

It's a more complicated situation to solve than many core to admit.

I don't know what Ukraine should do. I am under the impression that Ukrainian troops receive little leave. If true, perhaps conscripting men at 21 would be a good move to allow an increase of leave for existing troops while also satisfying Ukraine's backers.

 

[contricusc]

But there's also competition between France and Germany. Germany will likely soon become so powerful that the French will have to recall the Maginot Line

The competition between France and Germany just shows how unable to cooperate Europeans still are. France has a decent military and weapons industry, but the economy is weak. Germany has a weak military but a better economy, which is not great either. They should cooperate instead of being rivals. European countries are too small to compete by themselves against big players like US, China and even Russia.

Russia, with its constant aggression, is, as always, a real headache for all its neighbors. Everyone will have to endure it like a natural disaster. If it disintegrates, a long period of instability and war will begin, something Europe so fears.
In the end, only those who miraculously survive will be lucky.

Russia should disintegrate. Anything else is a bad outcome. Europeans are too stupid to understand that the only good oiutcome is the disintegration of Russia.

But China will win either way.
Here's my forecast for the next century

China and the US will most likely share power in a bipolar world. The US will remain king of the Western Hemisphere, while China will dominate Asia and Africa. Europe will probably remain irrelevant.

 

[Relic]

I don't know what Ukraine should do. I am under the impression that Ukrainian troops receive little leave. If true, perhaps conscripting men at 21 would be a good move to allow an increase of leave for existing troops while also satisfying Ukraine's backers.

I genuinely don't know what the answer is. I know that when Canadians and Americans joined the fight to help liberate Europe from thr existential threat of Nazi'ism, we drafted our young men at 18 years old... I can understand the West asking Ukraine to do the same in defending their own territory and people, with our funding.

On the other hand, I genuinely have no interest in sending young people to their death. Conscription in general is an awful tool, but sometimes it's neccessity. I genuinely don't blame Zelensky for having such a hard time deciding pushing in that direction. I think he's correct in lobbying the West for funds and technologies that will help him trade drones and long range weapons for chance to keep to keep the death toll for the Ukrainian military limited, within reason. That said, I just think that there are some jobs that are going to require manpower. Ukraine's best brigades have faced attrition and desperately need well trained reinforcements / replenishment. Simultaneously, Ukraine needs additional heavy brigades and in order for the West to be willing to equip them, Ukraine needs to provide an influx of manpower, to signal that they are serious about building those brigades and utilizing them effectively.

 

[Relic]

Germany has now delivered all 4 Skynex Air Defense Systems that it purchased for Ukraine. The remaining two units were recently delivered. A Skynex system consists of 4 turrets, a radar and command unit. They are designed for point defense against drones and cruise missiles and function similarly to CWIS on a naval ship. Each systems covers a 4 x 4 KM area and are used in layered air defense, to protect critical infrastructure. Systems such as Skynex are vitally important because they are relatively cheap to purchase (approximately $100 million usd per system) and their ammunition is ready to replenish. They are ideal for shooting down drones, allowing Ukraine to save their valuable air defense missiles for Russian cruise and ballistic missiles.

My biggest frustration is that Germany has now delivered these vital systems, however, because additional funding was not immediately raised by other countries, there is a break in production for additional systems for Ukraine. For approximately $400 million usd, Ukraine could get 4 more systems and tighten their air defense further. They simply need their allies to band together and fund the project. These projects should essentially never stop. Funding should be organized well in advance, so as one order is completed, the next is ready to go.