TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

[Fuzuli NL]

My worry is that some other non-regional countries will not like this new Armenia.
Let’s wait and see.

I agree!

 

[Ripley]

Remember, a month ago (or two months ago, I forgot) Macron visited Armenia and tried to stage a shitty show by passing to Turkey from Armenia? Turkey rejected it. I was so glad to see that because it not only gave France a message that they’re not welcome around these parts but also Turkey will support Armenian rapprochement and support the process.

When you don’t short circuit and taken over by your temper, you don’t play into other’s hand. Hope they continue to keep their calm and this process moves further.

A friendly and neighborly Armenia is advantageous to everyone, foremost to Armenia itself.

 

[IC3M@N FX]

Don’t get your hopes up too much – Armenia is playing along because it needs the central corridor, just like the rest of us; we’re talking here about the Silk Road, which runs through Azerbaijan → Georgia and maybe Armenia → Turkey → Europe. I tend to believe that several players, such as Turkey, China and Europe, have made it clear to Armenia that this corridor is too important for everyone for them to be willing to accept instability and escalation at this stage. Armenia remains anti-Turkish – if it were to allow itself to be exploited by Israel in this situation, the country would only find itself economically sidelined if it were to be drawn into a political escalation. Israel gambled on this for free– it came at no political cost to the Country, but it didn’t work... nothing more.

 

[Sanchez]

Great point after 22:00 mark. Vance did mention a certification process already being underway regarding legality of transferring F-35s to Turkey(S400). And a sale notice was made to the congress for F110 engines. Engines will be delivered to TAI; and the project belongs to SSB, which is under CAATSA sanctions. This must mean that CAATSA is a goner in short term.

 

[mehmed beg]

Pashanyan is truly fascinating person. I think that he knows very well that for all Armenian predicaments , Russia is to blame.
Why would they suffer from the sake of Russians and French or anybody else who isn't in the Caucasus?

 

[Ripley]

Pashanyan is truly fascinating person. I think that he knows very well that for all Armenian predicaments , Russia is to blame.
Why would they suffer from the sake of Russians and French or anybody else who isn't in the Caucasus?

I admire the guy but don’t envy him. He’s got the thankless job of waking up his heavily defeated country from century old hatred, breaking the mold his people was cast in a century ago.
Nobody will like him and everybody will curse and cuss him from all sides.
Though job.

 

[Khagan1923]

Pashanyan is truly fascinating person. I think that he knows very well that for all Armenian predicaments , Russia is to blame.
Why would they suffer from the sake of Russians and French or anybody else who isn't in the Caucasus?

Actual Armenians mainly suffered due to the "Armenian" diaspora in the US and France, who were busy with injecting plastic into their bodies and running illegal businesses (mainly in LA/Cali together with the russians) while expecting Armenians in Armenia to die so they can glorify their deaths on social media and victimize themselves.

Pashanyan is the first armanian politician to actually realize the damage these groups have done to his country and its people and has cut them out of any discussions, you can tell by the vitrole he gets from the "diaspora Armanians".

People who never set foot in Armenia, don't speak or can even read the language were dictating to actual armenians to start wars they were always destined to lose in horrific fashion so they can go around LA and Paris and act like victims.

We see the same characteristic from pkk aligned kurds in europe. Where they want kurds in the ME to get massacred by starting armed conflicts and then afterwards run around in Europe and social media and try to portray themselves as victims so they can gain benefits for themselves personally.

Funnily enough another point that connects those two groups is that most of them are involved in illegal businesses.

 

[Khagan1923]

Great point after 22:00 mark. Vance did mention a certification process already being underway regarding legality of transferring F-35s to Turkey(S400). And a sale notice was made to the congress for F110 engines. Engines will be delivered to TAI; and the project belongs to SSB, which is under CAATSA sanctions. This must mean that CAATSA is a goner in short term.

I see a lot of people talking about the F-35s not coming even if S-400 gets resolved. Im sorry but that is not how the systems in the US works. As much as we clown on the US under Trump they still have systems in place that are working and will continue to work.

F-35 not being handed over to Turkey is connected to the S-400 and nothing else, as stated in the NDAA. If the Admin signs the certification that the S-400 issue has been resolved there is nothing the congress can do in the short term to stop it. Also both Democrats and Republicans would have to unite to accomplish another blockade of the hand over of the 6 F-35 and sale of further F-35 which wont happen as leaks are already circulating with the White House telling Republican Senators to be quiet and sit down. To block the sale Congress would need to pass another amendment, can it happen? Sure, is it likely to happen? No. With no law standing in the way Trump can push the sale through just like he did with the F-110. (He did the same in his first term with the UAE and F-35 which only fell through after he lost the election and Biden stopped the sale)

The handful of greek paid reps who are screaming have no actual power. I would like to mention that the House has over 400 Reps in it with 3-4 greek paid agents screaming around. That is 1% of the House making a ruckus who have no influence in the White House or even a connection to it.

Same group was also whining when the F-16 deal was being leaked (and yes the F-16 purchase has been greenlit the reason it has not been signed is LM and MSB negotiating over the price and other details).

Even if a further purchase is made impossible I think we will see at least the 6 F-35 sitting around be deliverd to the Turkish Air Force. Which alone would be a benefit to get the plane known with its quirks and weaknesses.

As I said I would not be suprised to see a mega deal be announced around the NATO summit between Turkey and the US. Trump is not doing this out of the good of his heart. He will extract that which he loves the most, money.

Vance might also see this as a way to show the Israelis the stick, after their behaviour against him and Trump over the last month.

We will see next week.

 

[Sanchez]

The handful of greek paid reps who are screaming have no actual power. I would like to mention that the House has over 400 Reps in it with 3-4 greek paid agents screaming around. That is 1% of the House making a ruckus who have no influence in the White House or even a connection to it.

We should add, they also chose their fight as F-35 and not engines. Greek publications that are linked to FDD and Hellenic Leaders like Kathimerini were quick to release reports saying "engines and F-35 are not linked".

 

[Saithan]

Military SOFA deal with Greek Cyprus 'technical,' says French diplomatic source - Türkiye Today

France calls its Greek Cyprus military pact 'a technical, humanitarian' deal after Türkiye said SOFA deal is 'illegal' under international law

www.turkiyetoday.com