TR Foreign Policy & Geopolitics

IC3M@N FX · Jun 16, 2025

hugh said:
do you know what "completely decoupled the Turkish economy from the West" means or you're just throwing words around with no substance behind? how can you conflate having no debt to imf with decoupling the economy from the west?

Decoupled means that you no longer necessarily need them; it would be economically damaging without them, but they are no longer absolutely essential as they were 15-20 years ago.
The trend will also increase: trade volume will rise with the US and EU, but measured against the world without the US and EU, the ratio will be 60-70% world (without US and EU) and 30-40% US and EU. I call this decoupling the economy, i.e., no longer creating exclusive dependencies on a single power bloc.

Sanchez · Jun 16, 2025

IC3M@N FX said:
Decoupled means that you no longer necessarily need them; it would be economically damaging without them, but they are no longer absolutely essential as they were 15-20 years ago.
The trend will also increase: trade volume will rise with the US and EU, but measured against the world without the US and EU, the ratio will be 60-70% world (without US and EU) and 30-40% US and EU. I call this decoupling the economy, i.e., no longer creating exclusive dependencies on a single power bloc.

I think it's not that hard to argue that if %30-40 of your export economy evaporates overnight and you lose 100 billion in potential revenue(about 10% of 2023 Turkish GDP), you are still very much shafted. We don't have trillions of dollars lying in the soil, waiting to be extracted like Russia does. We start to feel the outcome of that lost revenue in an instant.

Does Turkey expand its markets to not be beholden to a single market? Very much so yes. Does it mean Turkey have managed to or plan to decouple itself from western economies? Not at all.

IC3M@N FX · Jun 16, 2025

Sanchez said:
I think it's not that hard to argue that if %30-40 of your export economy evaporates overnight and you lose 100 billion in potential revenue(about 10% of 2023 Turkish GDP), you are still very much shafted. We don't have trillions of dollars lying in the soil, waiting to be extracted like Russia does. We start to feel the outcome of that lost revenue in an instant.

Does Turkey expand its markets to not be beholden to a single market? Very much so yes. Does it mean Turkey have managed to or plan to decouple itself from western economies? Not at all.

Look, I'm not saying that they will voluntarily give up money just because it's the US and the EU. They will increase trade volumes if possible. But they will no longer focus exclusively on the US and the EU; they will focus on global trade itself, including their soft power in the Middle East, the Far East, and Africa.
They want a larger share of trade relative to the US and Europe, and they have strategic reasons for this.

Sanchez · Jun 16, 2025

IC3M@N FX said:
Look, I'm not saying that they will voluntarily give up money just because it's the US and the EU. They will increase trade volumes if possible. But they will no longer focus exclusively on the US and the EU; they will focus on global trade itself, including their soft power in the Middle East, the Far East, and Africa.
They want a larger share of trade relative to the US and Europe, and they have strategic reasons for this.

I'll argue we never focused exclusively on the west. Stuff we built or harvested in the past was only good for those countries, now the stuff we build and harvest are sold all over because countries to our east have grown as well, like we did. Iraq now is our single biggest trade partner because Saddam is gone and country opened up to unhampered Turkish business. Syria will be like that in 5 years because Assad is gone.

I don't disagree that this is good and there are strategic outlines on it, but to say that we are decoupled, or plan to decouple to get ready to weather the coming storm from the west is just wrong. European security and economic security still is and will be Turkish security for decades to come. Erdoğan said as much few months ago. If anything, us being this coupled to Europe is just another layer of economic and strategic defence from that direction. If Turkish banks fall, Spanish economy shrinks overnight by 10%. We are east, we are west.

IC3M@N FX · Jun 16, 2025

Sanchez said:
I'll argue we never focused exclusively on the west. Stuff we built or harvested in the past was only good for those countries, now the stuff we build and harvest are sold all over because countries to our east have grown as well, like we did. Iraq now is our single biggest trade partner because Saddam is gone and country opened up to unhampered Turkish business. Syria will be like that in 5 years because Assad is gone.

I don't disagree that this is good and there are strategic outlines on it, but to say that we are decoupled, or plan to decouple to get ready to weather the coming storm from the west is just wrong. European security and economic security still is and will be Turkish security for decades to come. Erdoğan said as much few months ago. If anything, us being this coupled to Europe is just another layer of economic and strategic defence from that direction. If Turkish banks fall, Spanish economy shrinks overnight by 10%. We are east, we are west.

Exactly, we are creating mutual dependencies within the EU, which means we are no longer as vulnerable to blackmail as we used to be. These dependencies are no longer as one-sided as they were 10-15 years ago. Again, I'm not saying you're wrong, but Turkey's strategy is to build up as much independence as possible in order to act as a third option for itself and others, right between the power blocs. In principle, you create a network of non-aligned countries looking for a third option. Some Think Tanks call it the Third Way.
Turkey is one of the most active architects of this model.

But that's just my opinion; you don't have to agree with it 100%.

Ryder · Jun 17, 2025

UAE and Israel are allies.

Both are a huge threat to Turkiye.

I hope Turkish foreign policy has a gameplan to counter both.

RMZN · Jun 17, 2025

Ryder said:
UAE and Israel are allies.

Both are a huge threat to Turkiye.

I hope Turkish foreign policy has a gameplan to counter both.

Turkish gameplan is to sell weapons to the UAE and invest more into ballistic missile capability because that has worked out so well for Iran.

Sanchez · Jun 18, 2025

Italian armed forces chief visits Turkey.

After Italy also started courting Haftar following our footsteps, potential issues between the two are being ironed out. Now only Israel and Greece/EU remains; two huge ones. But nice to see cooperation going forward in Africa, EastMed, Balkans.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1935248694225559785

Sanchez · Jun 21, 2025

I wasn't expecting Pashinyan's visit. And the first state visit from an Armenian leader since the country was formed? It's not talked much but this is important.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1936162164454179055

Zafer · Jun 21, 2025

Sanchez said:
I wasn't expecting Pashinyan's visit. And the first state visit from an Armenian leader since the country was formed? It's not talked much but this is important.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1936162164454179055

It takes two to tango, Armenia should be mixed in the ecosystem in our region as it used to be long time ago. They should benefit from peace and should not look for help from far away. We should actually look for a de facto EU kind of cooperation between neighboring and related countries. Why shouldn't I be allowed to fly over Armenia with my private plane.

TheInsider · Jun 21, 2025

Pashinyan hopes to take advantage of the current conjuncture between Turkiye and Azerbaijan regarding Israel. Pashinyan is also having nightmares because the main guarantor of Armenia, Iran, is in shambles.

Sanchez · Jun 21, 2025

TheInsider said:
Pashinyan hopes to take advantage of the current conjuncture between Turkiye and Azerbaijan regarding Israel. Pashinyan is also having nightmares because the main guarantor of Armenia, Iran, is in shambles.

Hard disagree. This didn't start with Gaza war, it's been going on slowly since Karabakh was liberated in 2020. Events around us may hasten or hamper it but end route remains the same.

Pokemonte13 · Jun 21, 2025

Im guessing Pashinyan is afraid of being alone as russia has proven to be a weak ass b**** and iran is in a dire situation at least for the next 15-20 years.
Seeking better relations is also better for armenia i'm guessing he hopes by having good relationsship that erdogan can influence Ilham Aliyev so he stops attacking them
honestly i feel bad for them they are alone and Aliyev is a autocrat who does what he wishes

Pokemonte13 · Jun 21, 2025

RMZN said:
Turkish gameplan is to sell weapons to the UAE and invest more into ballistic missile capability because that has worked out so well for Iran.

true but unlike iran we are not just investing in bm but in pretty much everything and iran spent most of his budget on his bm which were from a technolgy perspective old but had decent range (quantity over quality) same for their ad i think the most modern was s300 which is 30 years old
our goal is to be even with isreal on a technolgy scale but have a larger quantitys on every level
Airforce: Kaan Anka 3 Kizilelma F16 Özgür/Viper Eurofighter ...
Navy: TF2000 I Class Milden MUGEM Nuclear Submarine Reis Class ...
Army: Altay Leo2 TIYK M60t pars ...
Munitions: SOM Atmaca Gezigin Süper Simsek ...
Air Defense Hisar A/O/RF Siper 1/2/3 Laser Weapons Gökdemir ...

Shtr · Jun 21, 2025

Nikol Pashinyan is not afraid of Russia actually. The major threat is against their existence. They are dying day by day. They are surrounded by countries worth either nothing for them or Turks. Their population is collapsing. The majority of their people are already living in different countries. Armenian in Russia is more than Armenia. The shit theories against Türkiye actually created a sick country. They can not easily convince their people against us anymore and this fact is creating a big issue. They could not even fly over Türkiye to go Europe. I guess anymore it is impossible to heal this nation. Nikol Pashinyan is trying his best to recover nation by resolving issues with Turks. Their country is based on hills. There is no or just little farm suitable lands. They have no mines to sell all over the world. They are miserable honestly. If you ask Turks about Armenia, you will hear not so much bad things in Türkiye. However if you say ask anybody about Türks, you will hear unbeliable claims and bad things. Pashinyan is trying to solve this major issue to have better relations. If he can not be successful, the country will be die out slowly as now.

BalkanTurk90 · Jun 21, 2025

TheInsider said:
Pashinyan hopes to take advantage of the current conjuncture between Turkiye and Azerbaijan regarding Israel. Pashinyan is also having nightmares because the main guarantor of Armenia, Iran, is in shambles.

iran & armenia have great relations but guarantor ??! i dont think .
They have russia as guarantor , if not them than west countries will come in

TheInsider · Jun 21, 2025

BalkanTurk90 said:
iran & armenia have great relations but guarantor ??! i dont think .
They have russia as guarantor , if not them than west countries will come in

Iran told Azerbaijan that if Azerbaijan uses force to establish the Zangezur corridor, Iran will intervene.

No Name · Jun 22, 2025

Sanchez said:
Hard disagree. This didn't start with Gaza war, it's been going on slowly since Karabakh was liberated in 2020. Events around us may hasten or hamper it but end route remains the same.

what did you mean by this?

mTT · Jun 22, 2025

The U.S. administration is pushing for NATO defense spending to be increased to 5%. According to Dutch media, NATO members have accepted this target. This request by the U.S. appears to aim at encouraging allied countries to increase their defense budgets and thereby purchase more products from the American defense industry. In light of these developments, although Turkey's plans to procure defense products such as helicopter engines, jet engines, F-16 Block 70s, and F-35s in the new year may not seem very likely at the moment, could new dynamics emerge in the coming year?

Ryder · Jun 23, 2025

Pokemonte13 said:
Im guessing Pashinyan is afraid of being alone as russia has proven to be a weak ass b**** and iran is in a dire situation at least for the next 15-20 years.
Seeking better relations is also better for armenia i'm guessing he hopes by having good relationsship that erdogan can influence Ilham Aliyev so he stops attacking them
honestly i feel bad for them they are alone and Aliyev is a autocrat who does what he wishes

Serbia and Armenia have become big losers in the geopolitical arena.

We can also say the same for Iran.

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