A significant development that I've been tracking and have simply failed to write a long form post about in a while is Ukraine's incredible success in the development and production of the 2S22 Bohdana 2 howitzer. Production of the self-propelled model has now surpassed 20 units per month...
And Russian Urals sell at about a $10 per barrel discount to WTI. It's essentially Russia getting squeezed by China and India because of Western sanctions on Russian oil. In practice, Russian Urals are basically around $50 per barrel right now, maybe slightly less in bulk purchases... If this...
Wow, oil down another 4% right now on fears of and American / Chinese trade war and an associated drop in oil demand globally. Ural oil is threatening to go below $50 per barrel.
If this continues, it's genuinely catastrophic for Russia's ability to fund this war in the medium / long term...
Belgium 🇧🇪 announced a new military aid package for Ukraine today, valued at $1.1 Billion usd. The Belgians also announced that they'll continue contributing $1.1 Billion per year in military aid until the war is over. The full extent of the 2025 package has not yet been released, but it is...
The likes of China 🇨🇳 and India 🇮🇳 will continue to buy oil from Russia in order to keep the trading relationship strong. That said, we're heading into the summer months when natural gas is already cheap. There are plenty of countries that could squeeze Russia for their natural gas and force...
Russian Ural oil traded between $52-$53 per barrel today, dropping by more than $8 per barrel in a 3 day stretch. Why is this important?
The 2025 Russian budget was built on the expectation of $70 oil ($113 billion usd in government revenues), however, only 4 months into the year, oil prices...
Today Norway 🇳🇴 announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $454 million usd. The entirety of the package is geared towards the purchase of artillery shells and ammunition. The breakdown is as follows:
- $363 million usd is earmarked for the purchase of 155mm and 152mm artillery...
The price of crude oil continues to tank. It's down about 3% in overnight trading and if the markets react the way we're expecting tomorrow, it might drop 5% in 25 hours, after plumeting sharply last week.
This is music to my ears. Russia doesn't care at all about it's people. They're more than...
Oil prices cratering over the last 2 days will have a significant impact on Russia's ability to continue paying for this war. Russian Urals will be sold for well below the $60.00 per barrel "price cap" in the coming months, taking billions of dollars worth of profit away from the Russian...
Denmark 🇩🇰 announced a new $1 Billion usd military aid package for Ukraine today. The funds will be funneled into Ukrainian domestic arms manufacturing in support of three ongoing initiatives:
- Bohdana 2 155mm howitzers
- Air defense systems
- Drone production / development
Latvia 🇱🇻...
While we no longer hear about American aid for Ukraine because the Defense Department doesn't announce what they've sent the way the Biden Government did, it's clear that military aid continues.
Last week there were 8 Atlas Air and Kalitta Air Cargo variant 747's that transferred unknown types...
Two significant military aid packages for Ukraine were announced today as Europe continues to surge aid into Ukraine ahead of Russia's spring offensive.
Sweden 🇸🇪 announced a $1.6 Billion usd aid package for Ukraine today, consisting of the following:
- Archer 155mm Artillery
- 155mm...
Today France 🇫🇷 announced a $2.15 Billion usd aid package to Ukraine, which will be delivered in stages over the coming months. This package is on top of France's contributions to the EU's $20 Billion usd loan to Ukraine in 2025, which will be serviced using frozen Russian assets. Today's newly...
Estonia 🇪🇪 announced a new military aid package for Ukraine valued at $107 million usd. Contents of the package include:
- Kamikaze Drones
- Ground Drones
- Ammunition (various calibers)
- Medical Equipment
- Personnel Kit...
The UK 🇬🇧 announced today that they are ordering 5000 NLAW anti-tank missiles for Ukraine from defense manufacturer Thales. The missiles will be built in Northern Ireland at two Thales facilities.
Deliveries will start in the coming weeks and will be staggered out for approximately 2 years...
Germany's 🇩🇪 plan to exclude defense spending and foreign military aid from their "debt brake" policy has cleared it's final hurdle today, as the upper house in parliament approved the plan.
Germany immediately confirmed the 2025 $3.3 Billion usd increase for aid to Ukraine, bringing total...
Zelenskyy confirmed the arrival of a 3rd batch of F-16s to Ukraine today. The number of units that arrived will not be disclosed for security reasons, but it's thought that they're arriving in batches of 4-6.
What this means in practice is that more pilots are graduating from the 4 training...
As I pointed to for several weeks leading up to Germany's 🇩🇪 vote on the "debt brake", now that it has passed Germany's outgoing Governmemt will immediately increase military aid to Ukraine by an additional $3.3 Billion usd in 2025.
This $3.3 Billion usd is on top of the $4.4 Billion usd in...
The German 🇩🇪 Parliamentary vote has passed in 513-207 majority. It will now be sent to the upper house of German Parliament where incoming Chancellor Merz has the votes he needs.
German Government now will now have the power to spend on it's Military and and to help Ukraine, outside of the...
Tuesday, March 18th will be an enormous day as it relates to this war. Two significant events will happen nearly simultaneously.
1. Trump and Putin are set to speak on Tuesday, as USA pushes Russia and Ukraine to accept a ceasefire agreement. This initial conversation will likely set the tone...
