5 Wars to Watch out for in 2022

CEZAYIRLI

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5 Wars to Watch out for in 2022​

As 2022 edges closer the prospect of conflict is high. Whilst Russia and China are emboldening each other there are also other regional conflicts that have the potential to draw in the global powers
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Adnan Khan21st December 202110 min

As 2022 edges closer the strategic landscape is as unsettling as ever. The prospect of conflict is high with some linked by unknown levels of collusion whilst others have been simmering for a long time and tensions are boiling over. Whilst Russia and China are emboldening each other their conflicts have the prospects of changing the global order, but there are also other regional conflicts that have the potential to draw in the global powers and re-order the power in their regions.
The Battle for the Edge of Europe
It has now been 6 years since the Euromaidan protests led to the overthrow of the Pro-Russian Victor Yanukovich and what ensued was another colour revolution style uprising where Europe and the US backed pro-Western Ukrainians and Moscow watched in horror as another former Soviet Republic got the ‘liberation’ treatment.
But Ukraine is not simply another former Soviet republic, Ukraine is integrated into Russia’s agricultural belt and much of Europe’s energy comes via energy infrastructure that goes through Ukraine. Ukraine is also less than 300 miles from Moscow so the loss of Ukraine for Moscow is existential. This is why Russia responded by supporting militias which took over parts of Eastern Ukraine. Russia then used its naval presence in the Crimea to conquer it and then formally aligned it with Russia through a referendum vote. But then the conflict froze as Ukraine, with Western support, pushed back against Russia and Moscow has had to deal with economic and social problems at home.
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The current escalation comes as the West continues to arm Ukraine and creeps ever closer to the Russian border. The West has been gradually arming Ukraine which could change the balance in the region. Since 2018, the US has sold hundreds of anti-tank Javelin missiles to Ukraine. Turkey has supplied the Ukrainian army with the armed drones that proved decisive in Azerbaijan’s victory over Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020, which Ukrainian forces used in October 2021 to destroy rebel artillery in Donbass. In November 2021, Ukraine’s parliament approved a deal with the UK that would allow it to buy British warships and missiles.[1] Throughout 2021 the US and its NATO allies have stepped up military activity in the Black Sea, near Russian territory. Just last month US bombers rehearsed attacks on Russia and came within 12.4 miles of the country’s borders.
Russia’s response began in November with a huge movement of the Russian military to Ukraine’s border. There are now around 100,000 troops gathered on the Ukraine border and the West is taking notice. Carl Bildt, the UN’s former Balkan envoy, warns that the two countries [China and Russia] may launch attacks “simultaneously in a more or less coordinated fashion”, even if they are not formal military allies. US president Joe Biden warned Putin during their video summit on the 7th December 2021, that the US will retaliate with economic strangulation and a Nato build-up if he tries to gobble up Ukraine.
Russia’s reasons for the escalation are clear. Putin explained that an expansion of NATO’s presence in Ukraine, especially the deployment of any long-range missiles capable of striking Moscow or missile defence systems similar to those in Romania and Poland, would be a “red line” issue for the Kremlin. Putin believes these missile-defence systems may be converted into launchers of offensive Tomahawk long-range cruise missiles. He went further: “If some kind of strike systems appear on the territory of Ukraine, the flight time to Moscow will be seven to 10 minutes, and five minutes in the case of a hypersonic weapon being deployed.”[2]
Ukraine for Russia is about NATO’s expansion into her buffer region, something that began in 1991 when the Soviet Union collapsed and still continues today.

One China
“What we do not know is how far Russia and China are coordinating their actions,” Lloyd Austin, the US defence secretary, said after China’s latest spate of bomber and fighter sorties into Taiwan’s airspace looked “a lot like a rehearsal” for an attack on the island.[3] For China, Taiwan is a rebel province and the last remaining region that needs to be disciplined to put the century of humiliation China suffered firmly behind it. China worked actively to isolate Taiwan on the international stage and for much of the post-WW2 period China built relations with the world on the basis that the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was the legitimate representative of all of China, including Taiwan. China continues to rely on a combination of tools, from conciliatory, political and economic policies to more coercive military activities and international diplomatic isolation to maintain control over Taiwan.
Since 1979 the US enshrined in law its commitment to assisting Taiwan to maintain her defensive capability. This insurance policy has seen the US regularly sell arms to Taiwan to the anger of China. But with a rapidly expanding military as well as capabilities China is really putting on display its ambition to take over Taiwan. Taiwan may be hoping for a US intervention but in the 2020 war games by the US military, it was revealed that America lacks the front-line clout in the region needed to hold back an invasion. Taiwan could only hope to harass attackers with a “porcupine strategy” of asymmetric defence, buying time for the US to mobilise.
To add to America’s woes China’s navy carried out Amphibious exercises around Hainan Island in the South China Sea from on the 15th December to the 17th December 2021. The Island is only slightly smaller than Taiwan, this may have been a possible dress rehearsal for Taiwan.[4]
China is not in a hurry about Taiwan as Russia is with Ukraine. However, the balance of forces are completely outnumbered against Taiwan now and US intervention, especially based on its recent performances, doesn’t worry the Chinese like it used to, making Beijing all the more confident in reunification with Taiwan.

Israel-Iran Showdown
Israel has held a consistent position against Iran, when the US began nuclear talks back in 2015 and the subsequent nuclear deal saw aggressive Israeli protests. Whilst President Trump ripped up the nuclear deal, the emergence of the Democrats in 2021 has seen the revival of talks between the US and Iran and once again Israel has taken a very hawkish position.
The talks took a five month break during the summer due to Iran’s presidential elections. During this break the enrichment of uranium has reached 60% levels in Iran. This is the highest level ever and allows the regime to leap to weapons grade level of 90% according to Helima Croft, energy strategist at RBC Capital Markets and former oil analyst at the CIA.
Israel has for long been in a shadow war with Iran but has always been looking to carry out a pre-emptive strike to put back Iran’s nuclear program and with Iran enrichment programme reaching worrying levels Israel may get the chance. With the US focused elsewhere Mossad chief David Barnea flew to Washington on the 5th December to push for a pre-emptive strike. Israel would like the US to join in with its 2.5 tonne “bunker buster” bombs to destroy Iran’s underground sites. But she may have to act alone and allocated $1.5 billion in October to prepare for its own attack.

The Battle for Western Sahara
Tensions between both Algeria and Morocco – two neighbouring North African countries, have been growing with Algeria’s rhetoric pointing towards an armed conflict. In November last year, then-US president Donald Trump had recognised Morocco’s claim over the phosphate-rich Western Sahara as part of a deal for Morocco’s normalisation with Israel. This agreement was much to Algeria’s dismay as it has been a firm supporter of the local Polisario Front with the Sahrawi group that seeks independence for the region.
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Since then, relations between Algeria and Morocco have gone downhill with ambassadors being recalled, borders closed, airspaces being blocked and the killing of three Algerian truck drivers adding fuel to the fire.[5] Morocco has grown increasingly confident in the last few years over its claims for the Western Sahara. Since 2017 Morocco has been increasing its military expenditures making arms deals with the US and France to purchase F-16 jets, attack helicopters, M1A1 battle tanks and surface-to-air missile systems. Morocco also invested in its own domestic military production base. Morocco has also been increasing commercial investment in its Western Sahara in order to lay claim to the region. In 2016, Morocco launched a $1.8 billion investment plan that included funding for new plants for the state-owned phosphate company OCP. Western Sahara is rich in fish and phosphates, and has untapped oil and gas potential.
Morocco’s rejoining of the African union and its political actions within African institutions has led to several African countries to open consulates in Western Sahara. In doing so, they have effectively pledged their support to Morocco. Then in December 2020 the White House and the Moroccan royal court confirmed that Israel and Morocco had decided to establish full diplomatic relations. As part of the normalisation deal, the US said it would also recognise Morocco’s “full sovereignty” over Western Sahara. This was a major victory for Morocco as the global superpower recognised Morocco’s claim to the Western Sahara.
Algeria responded in October 2021 by refusing to renew the contract for a gas pipeline that runs via Morocco to deliver gas to Spain. A presidential statement confirmed: “in light of the hostile behaviour of the (Moroccan) kingdom which undermines national unity.”[6] The contract between Algeria’s state-owned energy company Sonatrach and the Moroccan National Office for Energy and Potable Water (ONEE) ended without renewal in late October 2021. Algeria has been using the Gaz-Maghreb-Europe pipeline (GME) for the past 25 years to deliver natural gas to Spain and Portugal — via Morocco. Morocco, in turn, has been receiving about 10% of its gas supply as compensation. Algeria has promised to meet Spain’s energy demand by using the smaller undersea Medgaz-pipeline which doesn’t run through Morocco.
Algeria’s generals believe Morocco’s opening of relations with Israel will result in Israel transferring military technology to Rabat. With tensions sky high and the previous war in 1975 not resolving the issue of who controls Western Sahara the likelihood of war remains very high.

Trouble in the Balkans
Bosnia is facing its biggest crisis in 26 years. The 1994 Dayton agreement was made in order to bring to an end the Bosnian War, one of the Yugoslav Wars. The warring parties agreed to peace and to a single sovereign state known as Bosnia and Herzegovina composed of two parts, the largely Serb-populated Republika Srpska and mainly Croat-Bosniak-populated Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina. But Serb lawmakers in the Bosnian Serbs’ autonomous republic have begun the process of withdrawal from key national institutions in Bosnia-Herzegovina, in effect, seceding. The Dayton system was in reality a stopgap measure to end the war and was never intended to be permanent. Many Serbs still reject the international-court verdicts that established the Srebrenica massacre as genocide. With the Serb side so roundly rejecting it they believe they do not need to abide by the Dayton Accords agreement.
The COVID-19 pandemic has hit the Balkans hard, bringing with it a sharp economic downturn and political blowback and this added to the woes. Many also see EU enlargement has slowed down. Following the EU-Western Balkans Summit in October 2021, the leaders of Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia issued a joint statement, complaining that on paper, the enlargement policy remains active. In practice, however, there is a growing disappointment among the citizens of the region with the EU perspective.
 

RogerRanger

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There will be a war between Ethiopia and Egypt this year, after the civil war comes to an end, the new ruling faction will push ahead and be weak, so the Egyptians will see the time to strike. There could likely be a war between the UK and EU, you could say a conflict, but there will be military's involved. Possible Armenia war with its around nations. Loads of other continuing internal conflicts.
 

Vaggos

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Turkey will invade Greece. Russia invades Ukraine. China invades Taiwan.

The US and EU can do no shit. Biden & Macron will fail.
And the Martians will take over planet Earth 😂😂
 

Ravenman

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And the Martians will take over planet Earth 😂😂

We invaded and annexed Greece earlier, with swords and cannons. Why cant we do it now with much better weapons, better tech and more people?

I dont think Greece's tiny population of 9 million (60% are old farting pensionado's and peasants) will be a problem.
 
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RogerRanger

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We invaded and annexed Greece earlier, with swords and cannons. Why can we do it now with much better weapons, better tech and more people?

I dont think Greece's tiny population of 9 million (60% are old farting pensionado's and peasants) will be a problem.
Macedonia be like, I raise you taking the Persian Empire. LMAO.

Greece can be taken, but it can't be controlled. Taking Greece will be a pain in the arse of Turkey, you want to control the Aegean so you can link up your Black sea and Mediterranean fleets and can exploit the resources. However a full on occupation of Greece would be a mistake.

Turkey is better served taking the North corridor of the middle east, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. You can take and hold this ground much easier. Plus you get all the easy oil and gas. I believe a naval/air war with Greece would be on the cards if Greece wasn't in the EU and NATO, because Greece is it constrains the actions of Turkey, but also constrains the actions of Greece. Turkey can diplomatically uses Greek constrains against them to get concessions. At this point Turkey should be friendly with Greece, working with Greece, showing a positive face to the EU, so Greek actions in the future Turkey can use them as a morale and respectable defence of its position, rather than bullying a smaller country.

I am British we did this all the time. WW1 because we wanted to take the German colonies, because Germany invaded Belgium. LMAO. Also Turkey could easily lose a war with Greece or at least draw it. Land locked Armenia with no strategic depth at all isn't Greece. Where you can attack dug in islands with large populations, then attacking over a short front out of Thrace, while invading South Cyprus. Could Turkey take Greece sure, but France/Italy/Russia/US/Spain will turn against Turkey and if you think your currency is bad now, to see what happens.

Its the same problem Britain would have invading Ireland, we could do it and win, but we'd be buggered afterwards. Only nations like Russia who have spend decades removing themselves from the international system can invade other nations and keep functioning. Turkey as we see isn't Russia or China or Iran. I like Turkey, I want Britain to have a partnership with Russia and Turkey to break the EU apart. So I don't want you doing foolish things just because you can.
 

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Indo-China conflict in the Aksai Chin region...it might be fought with clubs and batons though like how we've been fighting over the last couple of years
 

CEZAYIRLI

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There will be a war between Ethiopia and Egypt this year, after the civil war comes to an end, the new ruling faction will push ahead and be weak, so the Egyptians will see the time to strike. There could likely be a war between the UK and EU, you could say a conflict, but there will be military's involved. Possible Armenia war with its around nations. Loads of other continuing internal conflicts.
Morocco in a slave/master relationship with Israel, might trigger a war with its neighbor Algeria as well.
 

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Macedonia be like, I raise you taking the Persian Empire. LMAO.

Greece can be taken, but it can't be controlled. Taking Greece will be a pain in the arse of Turkey, you want to control the Aegean so you can link up your Black sea and Mediterranean fleets and can exploit the resources. However a full on occupation of Greece would be a mistake.

Turkey is better served taking the North corridor of the middle east, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. You can take and hold this ground much easier. Plus you get all the easy oil and gas. I believe a naval/air war with Greece would be on the cards if Greece wasn't in the EU and NATO, because Greece is it constrains the actions of Turkey, but also constrains the actions of Greece. Turkey can diplomatically uses Greek constrains against them to get concessions. At this point Turkey should be friendly with Greece, working with Greece, showing a positive face to the EU, so Greek actions in the future Turkey can use them as a morale and respectable defence of its position, rather than bullying a smaller country.

I am British we did this all the time. WW1 because we wanted to take the German colonies, because Germany invaded Belgium. LMAO. Also Turkey could easily lose a war with Greece or at least draw it. Land locked Armenia with no strategic depth at all isn't Greece. Where you can attack dug in islands with large populations, then attacking over a short front out of Thrace, while invading South Cyprus. Could Turkey take Greece sure, but France/Italy/Russia/US/Spain will turn against Turkey and if you think your currency is bad now, to see what happens.

Its the same problem Britain would have invading Ireland, we could do it and win, but we'd be buggered afterwards. Only nations like Russia who have spend decades removing themselves from the international system can invade other nations and keep functioning. Turkey as we see isn't Russia or China or Iran. I like Turkey, I want Britain to have a partnership with Russia and Turkey to break the EU apart. So I don't want you doing foolish things just because you can.
Einstein once told: "Any fool can know, the point is to understand". So, let them believe we are like Armenia 🙂
 

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Morocco in a slave/master relationship with Israel, might trigger a war with its neighbor Algeria as well.
Unlikely I think. As there has been a lot of western media attention around this conflict. Which makes me think it won't happen this year. Also Israel doesn't matter in this conflict it has no strategic capacity to support either side.
 

CEZAYIRLI

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Unlikely I think. As there has been a lot of western media attention around this conflict. Which makes me think it won't happen this year. Also Israel doesn't matter in this conflict it has no strategic capacity to support either side.
Morocco a long time foe of Algeria, is too weak to stand for itself against Algeria, but coupling itself with Israel will give it a better chance to win the fight.

Now, you're right, no one knows whether Israel would be interested in engaging itself into a North African war in support of Morocco.
 

RogerRanger

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tbh You'll be in a worse state than armenia If just attack your border Installments
Then the French and Italians move carriers to the eastern med, blockade Cyprus and the Greeks take it back with support from Britain.

You need to understand that nobody wants Turkey to be powerful again, nobody. Other than maybe Israel, as Turkey is a counter to the Arabs. But no European power wants Turkey to be powerful. You need to be patient and play the geo-political game. If you don't you have issues with the US tanking your currency.
 

RogerRanger

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Morocco a long time foe of Algeria, is too weak to stand for itself against Algeria, but coupling itself with Israel will give it a better chance to win the fight.

Now, you're right, no one knows whether Israel would be interested in engaging itself into a North African war in support of Morocco.
Yes I know, I watched a video by Caspian Report on the conflict. Which was a basic overview of the history. Israel has good technology and weapons systems it can give Morocco, but that will only give them a operational advantage. Israel couldn't for example send expeditionary forces to aid Morocco or financial support. Spain could in a small way, France could in a moderate way, Turkey could in a limited way. Those I would say are the main operators in the conflict, Israel is using it as a way to increase its influence in the Arab world. That's all, they don't want a conflict nor do they have the ability to act in a conflict. Israel is a medium sized power, with basically no power projection capabilities. It can't even control Gaza or the West Bank.
 

CEZAYIRLI

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Yes I know, I watched a video by Caspian Report on the conflict. Which was a basic overview of the history. Israel has good technology and weapons systems it can give Morocco, but that will only give them a operational advantage. Israel couldn't for example send expeditionary forces to aid Morocco or financial support. Spain could in a small way, France could in a moderate way, Turkey could in a limited way. Those I would say are the main operators in the conflict, Israel is using it as a way to increase its influence in the Arab world. That's all, they don't want a conflict nor do they have the ability to act in a conflict. Israel is a medium sized power, with basically no power projection capabilities. It can't even control Gaza or the West Bank.
Great analysis. You nailed it. :)
 

Knowledgeseeker

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Yes I know, I watched a video by Caspian Report on the conflict. Which was a basic overview of the history. Israel has good technology and weapons systems it can give Morocco, but that will only give them a operational advantage. Israel couldn't for example send expeditionary forces to aid Morocco or financial support. Spain could in a small way, France could in a moderate way, Turkey could in a limited way. Those I would say are the main operators in the conflict, Israel is using it as a way to increase its influence in the Arab world. That's all, they don't want a conflict nor do they have the ability to act in a conflict. Israel is a medium sized power, with basically no power projection capabilities. It can't even control Gaza or the West Bank.
Alot of good points but i want to make a statement. Morocco dont have any good relations with spain at all so they would not help morocco against algeria. In fact algeria and spain have decent relations. Morocco’s relation with france is decent. I dont think any war will happen soon, but if it would happen the US would be a contributor. In general the people in morocco and algeria love each other, and see each other as twin brothers😁
 

CEZAYIRLI

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Alot of good points but i want to make a statement. Morocco dont have any good relations with spain at all so they would not help morocco against algeria. In fact algeria and spain have decent relations. Morocco’s relation with france is decent. I dont think any war will happen soon, but if it would happen the US would be a contributor. In general the people in morocco and algeria love each other, and see each other as twin brothers😁
Morocco is an expansionist regime, it has crazy dreams about Israel helping it to take over the whole North African region.
 

HaZZan

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The war between Algeria and Morocco is impossible.
If a war broke out between Algeria and Morocco, expect a wave of migration ten times the Syrian migration wave this would mean the collapse of Europe, Europe will never let that happen.
Morocco has to fight the Sahrawi army in silence that's it.
This year, I expect the return of war in Libya and possible Egyptian air strickes on the Ethiopian dam.
 

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Morocco is an expansionist regime, it has crazy dreams about Israel helping it to take over the whole North African region.

Please, if Morocco was expansionistic, they would first take Ceuta, Melilia and the Canary Islands.
 

Ravenman

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Macedonia be like, I raise you taking the Persian Empire. LMAO.

Greece can be taken, but it can't be controlled. Taking Greece will be a pain in the arse of Turkey, you want to control the Aegean so you can link up your Black sea and Mediterranean fleets and can exploit the resources. However a full on occupation of Greece would be a mistake.

Turkey is better served taking the North corridor of the middle east, Syria, Lebanon and Iraq. You can take and hold this ground much easier. Plus you get all the easy oil and gas. I believe a naval/air war with Greece would be on the cards if Greece wasn't in the EU and NATO, because Greece is it constrains the actions of Turkey, but also constrains the actions of Greece. Turkey can diplomatically uses Greek constrains against them to get concessions. At this point Turkey should be friendly with Greece, working with Greece, showing a positive face to the EU, so Greek actions in the future Turkey can use them as a morale and respectable defence of its position, rather than bullying a smaller country.

I am British we did this all the time. WW1 because we wanted to take the German colonies, because Germany invaded Belgium. LMAO. Also Turkey could easily lose a war with Greece or at least draw it. Land locked Armenia with no strategic depth at all isn't Greece. Where you can attack dug in islands with large populations, then attacking over a short front out of Thrace, while invading South Cyprus. Could Turkey take Greece sure, but France/Italy/Russia/US/Spain will turn against Turkey and if you think your currency is bad now, to see what happens.

Its the same problem Britain would have invading Ireland, we could do it and win, but we'd be buggered afterwards. Only nations like Russia who have spend decades removing themselves from the international system can invade other nations and keep functioning. Turkey as we see isn't Russia or China or Iran. I like Turkey, I want Britain to have a partnership with Russia and Turkey to break the EU apart. So I don't want you doing foolish things just because you can.

I agree 100%.

Turkey and UK should join partherships, like they were a dynamic duo in the Crim War against Russia.

There was a time that UK and Brittish people had a bad name in Turkey (under influence of the German lobby and because of WO I), but that has changed since then.

Turkey and UK have worked earlier together at Cyprus, and Boris Johnson has Ottoman ancestors and ofcourse Katie Price is every month in Turkey to visit plastic surgery. 🙂
 

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