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As we all know, a regional cold war is happening. It's a complex power struggle, which will likely remain a proxy war. For instance, in Libya the Gulf states are pouring in money to buy mercenaries and weapons, meanwhile Turkey is single-handedly taking them on with drones and forces which they trained. This indicates that Turkey is not acting alone and has received assurances behind closed doors. We already know of the alliance which France and the UAE formed (it was the UAE which called for an Arab-European alliance). But what could they be facing? The two sides could look like this:
Bloc 1:
USA & Russia will likely try to play both sides to their advantage. The USA will however lean towards bloc 1.
Now you may be wondering why the UK, Italy and Spain are in bloc 2. There are multiple reasons why. Here are some of them:
When you look at the list of nations, it becomes apparent why Turkey is acting so bold. Turkey doesn't require the open support of any of these nations, however negotiations behind closed doors has meant that Turkey has been more or less, given the green light.
If you are still not convinced that Turkey and the UK are working together, then you may of missed the joint naval drill they carried out just yesterday.
Bloc 1:
- France
- Israel
- Greece
- Saudi Arabia
- UAE
- Egypt
- Bahrain
- Libya (LNA)
- Other Arab states
- Turkey
- United Kingdom
- Italy
- Spain
- Qatar
- Algeria
- Libya (GNA)
- Morocco
- Tunisia
- Malta
- Ethiopia
- Somalia
- Turkic Council states, including Hungary
USA & Russia will likely try to play both sides to their advantage. The USA will however lean towards bloc 1.
Now you may be wondering why the UK, Italy and Spain are in bloc 2. There are multiple reasons why. Here are some of them:
- If bloc 1 gets what they want, then an influx of refugees will head to Italy and Spain. Obviously, neither country wants anymore refugees. This also affects the UK, as refugees who arrive on European shores will often attempt to push towards the UK. This route takes them through France, where they end up crossing the English Channel. Many refugees report that French police forcefully push them towards the UK. To make matters worse, the EU recently rejected a post-Brexit refugee return plan.
- Italy and Spain have been given the short end of the stick by the European Union. From their economy, to the abysmal support they received during the toughest times of the COVID-19 crisis, Italy and Spain are not at all pleased with the EU (Germany and France to be more specific).
- France's resurgent aggressive foreign policy isn't viewed positively in the UK, Italy and Spain. It is seen as an attempt to regain power, much like what Turkey is doing. However due to France's location, it is in direct competition with the UK, Italy and Spain. A stronger France, means a weaker and less relevant UK, Italy and Spain. Essentially, France's actions are suggesting that it wants to rise by deploying across the Middle East and Africa, and thus securing precious resources. These will be necessary in order to fuel France's ambitions.
When you look at the list of nations, it becomes apparent why Turkey is acting so bold. Turkey doesn't require the open support of any of these nations, however negotiations behind closed doors has meant that Turkey has been more or less, given the green light.
If you are still not convinced that Turkey and the UK are working together, then you may of missed the joint naval drill they carried out just yesterday.
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