Azerbaijan Armenia Tensions

[Century]

A protest is being held near a Russian military base in the Armenian city of Gyumri.
The protest was organized by the "For the Republic" party.
The participants of the protest are demanding the withdrawal of the Russian military base from the territory of Armenia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1959243845759033787

After Russia's betrayal, Armenians have placed their bets on Iran. But since Iran couldn't even defend itself...
It looks like in a year or two, Armenians will ask Ankara to establish a Turkish military base in Armenia. Right there. In Gyumri. Armenia, which has found itself in an extremely dire situation after a heavy defeat in Karabakh, may make an incredible somersault in its foreign policy. They have no other choice.

Armenia turning to Turkey wouldn’t be a natural progression, but a move made under pressure it seems. The protests in Gyumri show how deep the frustration with Russia has become, especially after Moscow failed to provide military support when Armenia was blitzed, despite CSTO commitments.
But polls consistently show that trust in government and foreign powers are extremely low while institutions like the armed forces and the Church remain the most trusted as I was saying. That tells me that any sudden pivot, be it toward Turkey or anyone else will not enjoy broad public support. Giving the most charity, it would be an uneasy gradual shift driven by necessity rather then real confidence and it could spark resistance on the ground.

That all said, the South Caucasus has a way of defying predictions, so I’m open to being proven wrong if events take a sharper turn then expected.

 

[2033]

Armenia turning to Turkey wouldn’t be a natural progression, but a move made under pressure it seems. The protests in Gyumri show how deep the frustration with Russia has become, especially after Moscow failed to provide military support when Armenia was blitzed, despite CSTO commitments.
But polls consistently show that trust in government and foreign powers are extremely low while institutions like the armed forces and the Church remain the most trusted as I was saying. That tells me that any sudden pivot, be it toward Turkey or anyone else will not enjoy broad public support. Giving the most charity, it would be an uneasy gradual shift driven by necessity rather then real confidence and it could spark resistance on the ground.

That all said, the South Caucasus has a way of defying predictions, so I’m open to being proven wrong if events take a sharper turn then expected.

My friend, he was only joking. Armenia completely hates the Turks. Even in its official state emblems, Mount Ararat, which lies within Turkey, is depicted. If they had the chance, they would not hesitate to kill all the Turks in the world

 

[Iskander]

The first meeting after the establishment of peace in the South Caucasus.
Tianjin. China.

 

[GoatsMilk]

I think it would be better for us if Russia stayed and didn't make room for US to establish a base there.

Because that is what will happen. No one does dare do shit against US.

Regardless of how much worse Russia is.

If america establishes bases in Armenia, then all that will happen is that armenia will be put on a hostile course against Turkiye. They already done this with the Kurds in iraq and syria, similar to what they are doing with greece and south cyprus.

Throwing Russia out just to invite America in was probably the dumbest thing one could do. The only nation today that has the means to threaten Turkish sovereignty is the USA, Turkiyes primary geopolitical policy should be to limit american influence within her nation and her immediate borders, not to increase it.

Azerbaijanis long term security is tied to Turkiye. Not because Turkiye is superior or inferior to Azerbaijan but because Azerbajan has a relative small population comparative to her neighbours. 10 million is simple not enough to stand alone against Russia/Iran. Only way Azerbaijan could find herself potentially in a position to stand alone were if the 30 million Azerbaijanis in Iran formed with Azerbaijan. Then its a different story, but as it is now Turkiyes security is critical to Azerbaijan.