Can Indonesia ensure its neutrality?

[Ryder]

Question I have been asking myself.

Indonesia has been largely neutral while at the same time it has relations with both the USA and China while also arming up.

Due to China's threat off its waters even violating it at times. Could Indonesia join a camp mainly on the USA's side even become more close with Japan and SK. While maybe even forming a pact with Malaysia and the Philippines?

I hope Indonesian members could give a good insight.

 

[NEKO]

Military pact? I don't think so.
But working together against common enemy in case of war is still possible, kind of being a temporary ally based of agreement from a closed door meeting.

Could Indonesia join a camp mainly on the USA's side even become more close with Japan and SK.

Yes, as long as not have anything with "military alliance", Indonesia is "neutral" but not neutral and have the possibility of tilting towards the other side, for now its tilting towards US(in security and military matters) but tilting towards China (economy- trades and investment).
It is very unlikely for Indonesia to get close with China in terms of military and security cooperation, while Indonesia cooperation with the US keep increasing with joint military exercise, military equipment purchase etc.
As for economic cooperation its hard but still possible for the US to compete against China.

 

[Ryder]

Military pact? I don't think so.
But working together against common enemy in case of war is still possible, kind of being a temporary ally based of agreement from a closed door meeting.


Yes, as long as not have anything with "military alliance", Indonesia is "neutral" but not neutral and have the possibility of tilting towards the other side, for now its tilting towards US(in security and military matters) but tilting towards China (economy- trades and investment).
It is very unlikely for Indonesia to get close with China in terms of military and security cooperation, while Indonesia cooperation with the US keep increasing with joint military exercise, military equipment purchase etc.
As for economic cooperation its hard but still possible for the US to compete against China.

Interesting really.

Indonesia and China will most likely base their relations on trade. I dont think Indonesia would get itself into a debt trap. Arm and a length.

Inodnesia's arms purchasea have been tilting towards more Western Equipment while growing its domestic ones.

Interesting developments.

 

[NEKO]

Interesting really.

Indonesia and China will most likely base their relations on trade. I dont think Indonesia would get itself into a debt trap. Arm and a length.

Inodnesia's arms purchasea have been tilting towards more Western Equipment while growing its domestic ones.

Interesting developments.

Because of the past embargo Indonesia also tried to buy military equipment from non western made one but from the look of it, it will change in the future. China : well its China, better not buy some crucial military equipment from them, Russia : the quality is meh even China has surpassed them in some areas, there is also sanction and embargoes, commonality issues with NATO standard equipments.
From now on we can expect Indonesian military to be more NATO centric.

Debt trap? I believe the govt is quite good handling the economy so there is no worry, also the debt (to china and other country) compared to the gdp is still in acceptable level.

 

[schuimpjes]

Question I have been asking myself.

Indonesia has been largely neutral while at the same time it has relations with both the USA and China while also arming up.

Due to China's threat off its waters even violating it at times. Could Indonesia join a camp mainly on the USA's side even become more close with Japan and SK. While maybe even forming a pact with Malaysia and the Philippines?

I hope Indonesian members could give a good insight.

Officially, we want to show the world that we are friend of anyone, this also because of our foreign policy doctrine of free and active. About China, yes we have lot of economic relations with them, trade, investments and also BRI, but you can notice, relation in defense is minimum, only small procurements for defense and security from China and if I’m correct, zero military exercise recent years.

About defense pact, we rather doing ad hoc relations in security and defense, for example, with Malaysia and Philippines. Because of higher threat from Abu Sayyaf (ISEA) kidnapping activities few years back, 3 countries just doing more communications and joint patrols rather make any pact.

But I think China already see us based on their state media more towards what they called as Indo-Pacific NATO because of our SGS 2022 lol. They maybe gonna be more assured by that near time because of our Air Force would go to Australia’s Pitch Black (with more participants than ever before) this year.

The point is, no official defense pact, at least for now. We could maintain this stance even during the Cold War, maybe we gonna be more open about it officially if we have our own Pearl Harbor like attack first.

 

[wolveray1]

What I don't get it is why there are no cooperation between Malaysia,Philippines,Indonesia,Brunei and Vietnam by doing joint exercise in SCS...
Personally,i think most of our politician are bs.
Instead of talking,they should be more proactive in handling China in SCS.

 

[wolveray1]

Of course,we are nothing compare to China but an attempt by aggressive China will also allow us to invite US into our region more intensively.
I don't think even China want that to happened considering most of countries in ASEAN are neutral.

 

[Gary]

Interesting question.

The answer is simple: no

I mean we just concluded super garuda exercise baby

 

[Gary]

What I don't get it is why there are no cooperation between Malaysia,Philippines,Indonesia,Brunei and Vietnam by doing joint exercise in SCS...
Personally,i think most of our politician are bs.
Instead of talking,they should be more proactive in handling China in SCS.

Because Philippines,Malaysia,VietNam have issues in the south china sea between themselves.

But I could still see a Malaysia-RI joint coordination behind closed doors against China. Despite some issue here and there and the usual rhetoric from ultranationalist from both sides, the two country have surprisingly strong relationship in defense.

 

[Gary]

To be fair, there's no such thing as neutrality. If there's one, then its superficial neutrality. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines formed ASEAN as a tool to contain Vietnam Communism during the cold war and Indonesia is the leading spearhead of that effort at the time. Does that mean Indonesia severed its ties to communist VietNam ? the answer is no. Even when Soeharto took power and eradicate the communists Indonesia still maintains formal diplomatic relationship with North VietNam and refuse to acknowledge South VietNam

and just like the Cold war Indonesia-VietNam experiment , Indonesia also use the same approach when it comes to China. Only this time Indonesia has a clear economic benefit of befriending China.

A slight peek on the Super Garuda Shield exercise would give you a hint on which side Indonesia is leaning to. You just won't let your Chief of armed forces doing joint training of a rival superpower without sending a message.

TNI chief Andika Perkasa in the Middle.

Chief of Indonesian navy, Adm.Yudo Margono also involved directly on the ground

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556792859101364229

The size and scope of this years iteration of Garuda shield is something Indo-Pacific watchers would have an eye into. Not only the direct involvement of top Indonesian military officers, but also the participation (under Jakarta's nod) of sensitive (for China) country in it.

JSDF soldier during Super Garuda Shield 2022. The first time the Japanese military set foot in Indonesia since 1941.

Not only the size, scope, participation would have Beijing irked, the scenario itself could be considered hostile. This is no exercise for anti-terrorist operation, rather a country-country high end combat.

with Warships drill, amphib assault, paradrop etc.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559119687463555072

For comparison Indonesia had only done 2 exercise with the PLA, one in 2013 involving Army special forces and the other is a mere PASSEX with the PLAN after the Nanggala submarine accident.

So, maybe this would help answer @Ryder question

 

[Ryder]

Nice answers really helped with my question.

Indonesia has a unique place in geopolitics.

 

[NEKO]

To be fair, there's no such thing as neutrality. If there's one, then its superficial neutrality. Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand and the Philippines formed ASEAN as a tool to contain Vietnam Communism during the cold war and Indonesia is the leading spearhead of that effort at the time. Does that mean Indonesia severed its ties to communist VietNam ? the answer is no. Even when Soeharto took power and eradicate the communists Indonesia still maintains formal diplomatic relationship with North VietNam and refuse to acknowledge South VietNam

and just like the Cold war Indonesia-VietNam experiment , Indonesia also use the same approach when it comes to China. Only this time Indonesia has a clear economic benefit of befriending China.

A slight peek on the Super Garuda Shield exercise would give you a hint on which side Indonesia is leaning to. You just won't let your Chief of armed forces doing joint training of a rival superpower without sending a message.

TNI chief Andika Perkasa in the Middle.

Chief of Indonesian navy, Adm.Yudo Margono also involved directly on the ground

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1556792859101364229

The size and scope of this years iteration of Garuda shield is something Indo-Pacific watchers would have an eye into. Not only the direct involvement of top Indonesian military officers, but also the participation (under Jakarta's nod) of sensitive (for China) country in it.

JSDF soldier during Super Garuda Shield 2022. The first time the Japanese military set foot in Indonesia since 1941.

Not only the size, scope, participation would have Beijing irked, the scenario itself could be considered hostile. This is no exercise for anti-terrorist operation, rather a country-country high end combat.

with Warships drill, amphib assault, paradrop etc.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1559119687463555072

For comparison Indonesia had only done 2 exercise with the PLA, one in 2013 involving Army special forces and the other is a mere PASSEX with the PLAN after the Nanggala submarine accident.

So, maybe this would help answer @Ryder question

If I am not wrong gen Andika said that this exercise is not aimed at any particular country, meanwhile the US general clearly mentioning about China wkwk.

 

[NEKO]

The first time the Japanese military set foot in Indonesia since 1941.

Not really, they landed in Aceh during 2004 tsunami.

Japanese military deploys to tsunami-hit Indonesia

Japan's largest military deployment since World War II has arrived in Indonesia to help tsunami victims and improve the country's image in a region wary of its past aggression.

www.abc.net.au

First Japanese amphibious ops on Indonesian soil post ww2.